Predictions & Forecasts

Trump trails Biden in polls; markets await Fed

(17 June 2019)  Predictably, the past few days have been sub-par for US President Donald Trump.  New polls released last week for the 2020 election show Trump well behind all Democrat contenders with Trump 13 points behind former Vice-President Joe Biden.  Trump's leaked internal polling confirmed that he is well behind, including in most swing states. After hearing of the leak of bad poll news, Trump promptly fired his pollsters. 

This bad news for Trump coincided closely with the Mars-Saturn alignment I had noted last week .  It hit his natal Jupiter almost exactly and strongly incline him towards difficulty since Jupiter is his dasha ruler. I thought he may have also had some additional legal or financial troubles with this transit but aside from the usual tales of corruption, malfeasance and obstruction, nothing stood out.

Joe Biden is emerging as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.   Read more...


Markets rally as Trump claims victory in Mexico border deal

(10 June 2019) Nobody said that the Trump presidency was going to be boring.  After threatening to impose tariffs on Mexico, US President Donald Trump appeared to get a win after a deal was struck to try to reduce the number of Central American migrants headed for the US-Mexico border.  Trump's tariff threat had caught financial markets off-guard last week, but markets quickly recovered and then extended their gains today (June 10) with news of the weekend agreement. 

If anything, Trump has become more unpredictable and combative in recent weeks amid growing calls for impeachment proceedings to begin in the House of Representatives.   Tariff talks with China seem to be going nowhere as the trade war has escalated further.  US economic data has started to weaken as last Friday's poor jobs report confirmed the emerging down trend in growth.  A recession is looking more likely by next year which also happens to be an election year.  The stock market is still close to its highs due to the jawboning from the Fed and its promise to cut interest rates if the economic uncertainty continues.   Read more...


Google plunges 6% on antitrust fears

(3 June 2019) As it turns out, maybe size does matter.  Large US technology stocks fell sharply on Monday on reports that the Department of Justice is undertaking an antitrust probe of Google, Facebook, Amazon and Apple.  While there are no concrete measures in place yet, the US government is looking into increasing regulatory oversight of "big tech" as a means of restoring fair competition.  Investors fear that greater regulation will cut into bottom line profitability and may even go so far as breaking-up some of these huge companies.

News of the investigation hit Google shares especially hard which fell 6% today to $1038.  This latest decline comes after a large correction in the month of May which saw shares of the search engine giant down 20% from its April 29 high of $1296.  

We can quickly spot the problems in the Google IPO horoscope.  One of the basic rules of financial astrology is that transit hits from bad planets like Mars and Saturn usually correspond with declines.  This is more likely when a weakened natal planets is involved.   Read more...


Is China losing the trade war?

(27 May 2019) Trump's sunny tweets notwithstanding, it may be that US-China trade war is just beginning.  Financial markets are unsettled after last week's escalation of rhetoric as China doubled down on its refusal to submit to US demands regarding intellectual property and technology transfer.   Once we pass this tit-for-tat tariffs stage, there are any number of options the Chinese could consider.  They could sell their US Treasury bonds thus forcing up US interest rates.  Or they could make it more difficult for US companies like Apple to manufacture in China.  Or they could even initiate an outright ban on US products entering the country.  Chinese media have already begun a soft campaign to embarrass owners of the iPhone.   

If a compromise deal is not reached soon, then China could begin these Phase 2-type actions against the US.  And let's not forget about the possibility that the trade war could morph into a more aggressive geopolitical confrontation.  Taiwan would be an obvious target in the event that the trade war escalated further.   Read more...


Modi to return as PM: Indian exit polls

(20 May 2019) Exit polls suggest that India's PM Narendra Modi is likely to return to power.  While India's Lok Sabha election result will be formally announced on Thursday May 23, Sunday's closely-watched exit polls pointed towards an even bigger majority this time for Modi's NDA alliance.  Markets soared on the exit poll news as the BSE-Sensex gained almost 4% in Monday's session.

The national horoscope for India shows why Modi is likely to return as Prime Minister.  In my experience, sitting incumbent leaders are typically re-elected if the Sun is well-aspected in the national chart.  The Sun represents the government as a whole as well as the head of the executive branch.   The 10th house should also be strong at the time of the election or the announcement of results. 

Immediately, we can see why the planets favour Modi at this time: Jupiter (27 Scorpio) is closely aspecting the Sun (28 Cancer) within one degree of a benefic 120-degree trine aspect.   Read more...


You reap what you sow: China retaliates after Trump's tariffs

(13 May 2019)  So much for winning.  Markets took the full impact of the deteriorating US-China trade relationship on Monday as stocks sold off sharply.  The Dow followed most global markets lower falling more than 600 points after China responded to Friday's US tariffs with new tariffs of their own.  Trump's confrontational approach to China appears to be blowing up in his face as a negotiated deal is nowhere in sight.  Without much hope of a future settlement, stock markets are anticipating a slowdown in economic activity and marking down asset values.

This negative outcome is in keeping with my expectation as the ongoing Saturn-Ketu conjunction is starting to deliver the bearish goods.  Last week, I thought the alignments looked more negative than positive and we did see some significant downside through the week.  The early week Mars-Jupiter opposition in particular saw a large decline in stocks globally.  Friday's bearish Sun-Saturn-Ketu alignment coincided with the low of the week, although US markets did recover by the close.  Read more...


Trump surprises markets with new China tariff threat

(6 May 2019)  He who lives by the Trump, dies by the Trump.  Market participants may have been contemplating some adapted biblical wisdom today as stocks fell sharply after the mercurial US President tweeted Sunday that tariffs on Chinese goods would be raised to 25% on Friday.   Despite months of reassurance by the White House that a US-China trade deal was just around the corner, Trump has suddenly decided to play hardball after accusing China of reneging on what had already been agreed upon.

While stocks partially recovered by Monday's close in New York, confidence has been shaken.  It is unclear where the trade deal stands now as the China delegation is due in Washington for another round of negotiations on Wednesday. 

One perspective on this question can be found in the combined horoscopes of Donald Trump and  Xi Jinping.  Read more...


Sell in May and go away?

(29 April 2019)  The stock market remains buoyant after Friday's 3.2% US GDP number and generally positive earnings reports.  Some US indexes have made new all-time highs although the large cap Dow and the small cap Russell 2000 have yet to follow the S&P 500 and NASDAQ into record territory.  Corporate America is thriving in Trump's low-tax, low-regulation environment, albeit with a helping hand for the Fed and its ultra-loose monetary policies that encourages leveraging through higher debt levels.  We're probably living in an asset bubble that is not sustainable in the long run, but as Keynes said, "in the long run, we are all dead."

There is an old adage in the stock market to "sell in May and go away" since historical returns from May to October are lower than through the rest of the year.   Read more...


Aspects in focus ahead of possible Saturn trigger sequence

(22 April 2019) Aspects are one of the central building blocks of astrology.  Briefly stated, an aspect is an astrologically significant angle between two planets that is said to produce an observable real-world outcome.  If Jupiter is conjunct your Moon with no degrees of separation, then that's good.  If Mars is square and therefore separated by 90 degrees from your Moon, then that's bad.

And yet as fundamental as aspects are, there is a wide range of opinion about them.  As a continuous written body of knowledge, Vedic astrology has a more fixed set of rules governing planetary aspects.  While all planets cast a full-strength aspect on the planets opposite, different planets have the capacity to cast different aspects.  For example, Saturn casts a forward sextile (60 degree) and a backwards square (270 degrees) but not a forward square (90 degrees), nor a trine (120 degree aspect). 

Western astrology has a far less unified view of aspects.   Read more...


Saturn conjoins Ketu: the calm before the storm?

(15 April 2019) Financial markets appear to be on auto-pilot these days as the grind higher continues.  After its scary Christmas low, the bull market would appear to back on track against a background of easy central bank money (i.e. debt) and the promise of a US-China trade deal that, like Godot, never seems to arrive. The strength of the rebound in the first quarter was not unexpected from the astrological point of view given the extended dominance of Jupiter. 

When Jupiter is strong through alignment with other planets or by sign placement, stocks usually rise.  That was definitely the case as Jupiter aligned with Neptune in January and then with Pluto in February and March.  Jupiter then stationed retrograde last week on April 10 in Sagittarius, a sign in which it does particularly well.  But now that Jupiter is moving backwards towards Scorpio, we may be on the verge of a shift in the terrain.   Read more...


Can the market rally continue after Mercury enters Pisces?

(2 April 2019) Stocks have moved higher over the past week on hints that the long-awaited US-China trade deal may be getting closer to completion.  As the month of April begins, the Dow has again pushed above 26,000 matching its February high.  Indian stocks have fared even better as the BSE Sensex set a new all-time record high today of 39,056.  While economic growth threatens to stall the economies of the US and Europe, Indian stocks have outperformed because of a significantly higher growth rate and improving investment climate under the Modi government.  While it is possible the results of the upcoming elections could change that favourable equation, the default expectation is for Modi to return to power.

These gains are in keeping with expectations as I suggested that last week's entry of Jupiter into sidereal Sagittarius was likely to correlate with some upside.  The bullish outlook was even more likely due to the midweek Venus-Uranus-Chiron alignment.  Read more...


Mueller report says no Russia-Trump conspiracy as Jupiter enters Sagittarius

(24 March 2019) They don't call Jupiter the Great Benefic for nothing.  Just ask President Donald Trump.  Today, US Special Counsel Robert Mueller finally handed down his report into the possible conspiracy between the Russian government and Trump campaign during the 2016 election.  Mueller found that there was no evidence for a conspiracy although he did not exonerate Trump for possible obstruction of justice charges.  While the full details of the report are not yet known, the initial impact has been positive for Trump and his beleaguered administration.

While I still expect the other shoe to drop for the Trump administration later this year, I was not surprised by this finding.  Trump's horoscope is looking pretty good these days, mostly due to the favourable placement of transiting Jupiter.  Jupiter (29 Scorpio) is slowing down now ahead of its retrograde station on April 10.  It is in close conjunction with his Moon (28 Scorpio) and also activates his Sun (29 Taurus) by opposition.  So this Jupiter transit was doubly positive for Trump since it aligned with both the Moon and Sun.   Read more...


Markets await Fed decision tomorrow

(19 March 2019) The Federal Reserve meets tomorrow to issue its latest policy pronouncements on the state of the US economy.  Financial markets are not anticipating any changes in interest rates but Chair Jay Powell's language will be watched carefully as usual.  Since the Fed suddenly reversed itself in early January to a more dovish stance (i.e. no more hikes), stock markets have risen sharply as the low current interest rate environment can keep the debt-driven expansion afloat a while longer. 

While the continued low rates are good news for the markets, the economic data is starting to show signs of a slowdown.  A recession in the US is looking increasingly possible within the next 6-12 months.  Investors now have to weigh the relative benefit of the Fed's cheap money with the likelihood of lower corporate earnings.   Read more...



To Brexit or not to Brexit, that is the question

(12 March 2019) The UK edged one step closer to the precipice today as Parliament voted down a second Brexit proposal by Prime Minister Theresa May.  It was a crushing defeat for Ms. May after apparently negotiating better terms with her EU counterpart in Brussels.  The UK Parliament is due to vote on a no-deal Brexit tomorrow (Wednesday) which is widely expected to be defeated.  It will then vote for an extension of Article 50 on Thursday to ask Brussels for a delay past the March 29th deadline to leave the EU.  If the Thursday vote passes, then anything is possible, including a fresh elections, a second referendum and maybe no Brexit at all. 

It's a chaotic situation with no easy solutions.  To be honest, I have no idea what's going happen.  When there is more than two possible outcomes to a situation, it is more difficult to make an astrological prediction. Typically, good transits point to a constructive resolution while bad transits coincide with tension, conflict and an ongoing state of frustration. But here we have at least four possible outcomes, each with its own pros and cons: no-deal Brexit, the postponement of Brexit (but only if the EU consents), fresh elections, or a second referendum.   Read more...


Mercury turns retrograde on Canada's Justin Trudeau

(4 March 2019)  It may be a good time to get your ducks in a row -- just in case.  Mercury, the planetary mischief-maker, is due to turn retrograde tomorrow, Tuesday, March 5.   Our solar system's innermost planet will station at 5 degrees of sidereal Pisces, and then begin its three-week backwards journey through the night sky.  It returns to normal forward motion on March 28 after stationing at 22 degrees of Aquarius. 

Mercury retrograde cycles have a bad reputation for bringing all manner of confusion, frustration and disruption to our normal routines.  Perhaps nobody knows this better than Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.   Actually, Trudeau has been on the defensive for the past month or so as his government is at the center of a corruption scandal that threatens to bring down his whole administration.   The opposition parties and many media pundits have been calling for a formal inquiry, and his resignation.   Read more...


Jupiter (and Fed policy) drive gold price higher

(22 February 2019) With all the talk about the economy slowing down and the possibility of a recession, it may be a good time to reconsider gold.  As the Fed and other central banks shift their policies towards monetary easing, (i.e. lower interest rates, more asset purchases, holding higher amounts of debt on their balance sheets), gold may be in a better position to rise in value.  As central banks intervene by printing more money, the amount of debt increases.  This devalues the currency and thereby increases the risk of inflation.  Enter gold, as the safe haven and traditional store of value which acts as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement.

Gold has steadily risen over the past six months from a low of $1167 last August to a high this week of $1350.  Gold fell sharply on Thursday to $1327, however, but remains above its key support level of $1300.  Can gold continue to move higher or is it destined to slip back into its previous trading range?   Read more...


Markets tread water ahead of possible second US shutdown

(11 February 2019) The dysfunction of the US government is again on display this week with the approach of another shutdown deadline.  As before, the sticking point is funding for Trump's border wall with Mexico.  With the current three-week emergency funding measure winding down, talks have broken off between an increasingly defensive GOP and a more emboldened Democratic Party.  The deadline for a deal is Friday the 15th at midnight.

A quick look at President Trump's horoscope shows that his position is unlikely to improve this week.  Mars is conjunct Uranus in the 9th house indicating trouble and sudden conflict involving legal bodies (Congress!) and perhaps foreign countries and their governments.  Moreover, the conjunction occurs at 5-6 degrees of Aries which aligns exactly with his Ascendant at 6 Leo.  The planets indicate this is a moment of very intense conflict.  By itself, it does not reveal if he is more likely to win or lose this battle. 

But other planetary positions look more difficult.   Read more...


After shutdown defeat, Trump prepares for SOTU on Feb 5

(29 January 2019) The chaotic presidency of Donald Trump has now entered its third, and possibly final, year.  Last week, the US government shutdown was finally resolved after Trump caved and agreed to a temporary three-week stopgap spending bill.  It's anyone's guess what happens on February 15 when the bill expires as Trump has vowed to build his controversial border wall one way or another.  Another shutdown is possible, or Trump may declare a state of emergency to override the Democrats' opposition. 

Before that, Trump will give his State of the Union address (SOTU) before Congress on Tuesday, February 5.  It promises to be a moment of high political theater as Trump confronts what is likely to be a hostile, Democrat-controlled House.  The planets suggest the SOTU will be a contentious affair as Mars will be prominent in the first degree of sidereal Aries.   Read more...


Powell blinks: markets rally after Fed Chair's dovish comments

 (15 January 2019) Financial markets are looking a bit more stable now after the Federal Reserve seemed to dial back its commitment to higher interest rates and quantitative tightening.  Stocks have rallied strongly following the dovish comments from Fed Chair Jay Powell which reduced the likelihood of more rate hikes in 2019.   This bullish investor reaction was another reminder how dependent the stock market is on these historically low interest rates and how captive the Fed is to the stock market.  

Because the stock market is so deeply intertwined with the US and global economy, any major decline will force the Fed's hand.  The "wealth effect" requires the Fed to support stock prices in order to improve sentiment and thereby encourage consumer spending.   After all, if consumers see the value of their 401k declining precipitously, they are less likely to spend their money.  This essentially broadens the mandate of the Federal Reserve to include inflation, employment and the stock market.  Read more...


Beware the bear: how 2019 may be a repeat of 1937

(7 January 2019) The New Year got off to a positive start for most global stocks as investors tried to put the unnerving 2018 decline behind them.  Friday saw a surge of more than 3% on US markets on the perfect storm of a strong US jobs report, an interest rate cut in China and above all a dovish statement from Fed Chair Jay Powell not to hike too quickly, if at all.   Markets are still fragile and there remains considerable uncertainty about what may lie ahead for this year.

My basic expectation is that stocks may well recover somewhat over the next two or three months but that the planetary alignments look very bearish for much of the year.  As I see it, 2019 is shaping up to be a negative year for most global stock markets as a bear market is likely.  Even if there is a significant recovery going into spring, it seems unlikely they will return to their previous highs.  Read more...






 


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