Predictions & Forecasts

Looking ahead to the Biden presidency

(2 December 2020) With the presidential transition now fully underway, this is a good opportunity to consider the possible contours of a Biden presidency.  No doubt, it will be a sharp contrast to the Trump presidency in terms of style, tone and policy.  Although widely seen as a moderate, Biden is expected to nonetheless move the country to the left through higher taxes on the wealthy and a renewed commitment to environmental and climate initiatives.  But how is the US likely to fare under his administration?

One useful perspective on this question is to examine the horoscope of Biden's inauguration on January 20, 2021 in Washington, DC.   While the exact timing of Biden's swearing-in is significant, the Constitution stipulates that the incoming president assumes the duties of the office at noon.  Therefore, a chart cast for noon on Inauguration Day can reveal some of the significant themes and trends that could emerge over the next four years.   Read more...



Dow Jones hits record high 30,000 on vaccine optimism and Biden transition

(25 November 2020) Stocks extended their November rally this week as the latest vaccine announcement reassured investors that the end of the pandemic is now within reach.  Markets also cheered the start of the formal transition process of the incoming Biden administration as President Trump finally backed off from his previous objections.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new all-time record high on Tuesday as it closed above 30,000 for the first time.  

Despite the lockdowns and widespread economic hardship, stocks have rallied off the March low on unprecedented intervention by the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world.  Markets are now anticipating a return to normal growth in 2021 post-Covid, albeit with continuing support from the Fed.   Read more...


Markets weigh vaccine hopes against new lockdowns

(18 November 2020) Stock markets have been fairly positive in recent days as the Moderna vaccine news gave investors more reason to hope for a return to normal in 2021.  Some of that optimism had faded by Wednesday's session, however, as new lockdowns were announced in various cities and states across the US and Europe.  So while markets tend to look 6-12 months into the future, the prospect of fresh lockdowns challenges the bullish view of a slow but steady improvement in the economy. 

Stocks have been mostly bullish in November, in part due to the conjunction of Jupiter with Pluto which was exact on Nov 12.  Jupiter is a bullish planet, of course, and its conjunctions with outer planets (Uranus, Neptune, Chiron and Pluto) usually coincide with up trends in the market.   Read more...


Trump challenges US election results

(11 Nov 2020)  Despite Joe Biden's widening lead in the vote count, President Donald Trump has yet to concede to his Democratic opponent in the US election.  Instead, Trump has claimed that Biden has benefited from voter fraud in several hotly contested states.  To this end, the Department of Justice this week launched investigations into apparent irregularities in the vote which could form the basis of a formal legal challenge to the results.  Since Biden's lead is less than 1% in several states, it is possible that state outcomes could be reversed if significant fraud is uncovered and illegal votes are removed from the tally.

Trump's refusal to concede isn't surprising, since he already stated that he would not accept a loss in the election.  While the media and many world leaders have already recognized Joe Biden as the winner and President-Elect, there has not yet been a formal announcement by the overseeing office of the GSA.  Given the recounts now underway and possible legal challenges, formal announcement of the winner and certification of the results may take several more days at least.   Read more...


US election aftermath: Biden closes in on presidency

(4 November 2020) Democrat nominee Joe Biden seems to be on the verge of winning the presidency tonight as the former vice president only needs to win one more state to reach the threshold of 270 Electoral Votes.  The several remaining undeclared states are still too close to call as mail-in ballots will decide the final outcome. Not surprisingly, President Donald Trump is already contesting the results and has requested a recount in Wisconsin and an investigation into Arizona's mail-in ballots.  

Biden's current lead in the voting is not unexpected as I had previously suggested that the planets on Election Day favoured him over Trump.  The current Jupiter-Pluto conjunction at 27-28 Sagittarius aligned very closely with his unequal 10th house cusp (26 Leo) of status and career.  Also the Sun conjoined his natal Mercury (19 Libra) today which provided an additional infusion of energy.  Since the Sun rules his 10th house of status while Mars rules his 1st house, this 1-10 combination is a powerful signature for public profile and success.   Read more...


Trump still lagging in polls; stocks plunge on European lockdowns

(28 October 2020) The campaign has now entered its final week ahead of next Tuesday's election.  The national polls suggest President Donald Trump is trailing Democrat nominee Joe Biden by about 7 points.  However, some key swing states such as Pennsylvania and Florida are much closer races and keep open the possibility of a 2016-style come from behind win by Trump.  Therefore, if he can eke out narrow wins in these states as he did in 2016, he could still end up losing the popular vote by 3 or 4 points and remain president.   That scenario still seems unlikely since Biden's lead is larger than Hillary Clinton's was, but as we know, polls are not always right.

From an astrological perspective, the planets still don't favour Trump next week.  As I have noted previously, the election night transits look worse for Trump than for Biden.  Mercury will station direct on Election Day while in an exact square aspect with Saturn.  Read more...


The Covid second wave takes hold

(21 October 2020)  It would seem the second wave of Covid-19 is now underway.  The number of infections and hospitalizations are spiking across the world as the coronavirus makes its much-anticipated return with the arrival of cooler weather in the northern hemisphere.   As an indicator of the spread of the virus, positivity test rates are now as high as 10% in the US, UK, France and India while most East Asian countries continue to keep the pandemic under control. 

Certainly, the experts had predicted a second wave since people tend to congregate indoors more with the fall season.  Nonetheless, this autumn second wave also validates my previous astrological assessment using the chart of US president Donald Trump as a proxy for the United States.  In a previous post from May 5, I suggested that the ongoing afflictions to Trump's horoscope indicated the likelihood of a second wave in late September, with a possible third wave in December.  Read more...


Mercury turns retrograde as hopes fade for a US stimulus bill

(14 October 2020) This week US markets began to consider the possibility that there would be no stimulus bill before the election as hopes faded for an agreement between the White House and the Nancy Pelosi's House Democrats.  After Monday's gains almost matched the early September highs, stocks moved lower this week, as Mercury turned retrograde on Tuesday after the close.  Mercury's retrograde stations are often bearish for stocks as the backward movement of the planet of commerce often correlates with pullbacks.       

This political situation feeds into the larger question is whether this week's pullback may be a preview of a larger decline given the ongoing uncertainty about the outcome of the US election on November 3.  While Democrat Joe Biden is well ahead in the polls, investors remain concerned about a possible contested election where President Donald Trump finds a way to appeal the result to the Supreme Court.  A contested election result would be bad news for markets.   Read more...


VP debate preview; Trump treated for Covid

(6 October 2020) The roller coaster of 2020 never stops it seems.  President Donald Trump was diagnosed with the coronavirus last Friday but has returned to the White House after a short hospital stay. Trump's condition has improved since the weekend although doctors are watching him carefully in the event of further symptoms.  In some patients, the second week can be worse than the first week. 

Trump's diagnosis is reflected in a difficult planetary alignment.  As noted last week, the month of October was likely going to bring bad news for the president since he was experiencing an unusual multi-planet alignment of malefic planets.  The Lunar Nodes, Rahu and Ketu, have returned to their natal position where they also conjoin Trump's Sun and Moon, since he was born on a lunar eclipse when the Sun is conjunct Rahu and the Moon is conjunct Ketu.   Read more...


Biden wins first debate against Trump

(30 September 2020) Democratic nominee Joe Biden came out on top after Tuesday's chaotic debate with President Trump.  The 77-year old former vice president's steady and reassuring performance against an often-agitated Trump laid to rest concerns about his cognitive abilities.   Biden's debate win moved the election betting odds another 3% in his favor after the debate.  Biden now holds a comfortable 18-point lead in the political betting markets to go along with his 6-point lead in the national polls.

Biden's win came despite some difficult transits that I noted in last week's post.  For example, I had wondered if Mercury's opposition to Biden's Moon might have confounded his attempts to logically communicate his message to voters since this combination tends to be more commonly associated with more imaginative and impressionistic thinking.  In a way, we could say that Trump's constant interruptions did prevent Biden from communicating his platform clearly.  Read more...


The passing of RBG reshapes the race ahead of next week's debate

(23 September 2020) Last week's passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has introduced a new dynamic into the US election campaign.  The loss of the left-leaning RBG could mark a significant rightward shift in the Supreme Court if Trump and the GOP carry through on their promise to appoint her successor.  As of now, Trump and the GOP-controlled Senate have the 50 votes necessary to confirm a new justice over the coming weeks, regardless of who wins the election on November 3.  The administration's term concludes on January 20, 2021 so even if Trump should lose the November election, the confirmation of a conservative justice such as Amy Coney Barrett or Barbara Lagoa could still take place sometime in November or December.

This development is likely a political boost for Trump.  The prospect of another conservative member of SCOTUS will likely increase the enthusiasm and turnout of his voting base.  Read more...


When will the US election be decided?

(16 September 2020) There are only 47 days left until the US presidential election.  However, an increasing number of people do not expect the election to be decided on November 3.  Due to a number of contested issues, both Republicans and Democrats have expressed a reluctance to immediately concede the election regardless of the result.  President Donald Trump has sought to raise questions about the legitimacy of a sudden surge of mail-in ballots due to the Covid pandemic.  And prominent Democrats such as Hillary Clinton have urged nominee Joe Biden not to concede on election night under any circumstances given the varying and confusing array of state rules pertaining to mail-in ballots.

Aside from the mutual distrust of both camps, several million mail-in votes likely won't be counted until several days after election day in any event as some states will accept votes that are postmarked November 3.  So even if there is a landslide win for either side, it seems almost certain that the winner won't be declared for up to a week after the election.   Read more...


Tesla falls 30% as tech bubble bursts

(9 September 2020) The Covid tech bubble finally rediscovered the forces of gravity over the past week as big tech firms such as Apple and Tesla saw their share prices fall sharply.  Ironically -- but perhaps not surprisingly -- the high-water mark for the tech sector may have been last week's stock splits of market darlings Apple and Tesla.  Both high-flying stocks began trading the new post-split shares on Aug 31.  Tesla peaked on Aug 31 and Apple just one day later and both have suffered huge declines since.  Tesla has fared worse, falling more than 30% from its high last Monday.  

We can see how the current planetary alignment may have negatively impacted the Tesla share price.  Using the Tesla IPO horoscope for June 29, 2010, it is clear that the current tense alignment of Mars, Saturn and Ketu has highlighted a couple of key points in the chart.  First, the Ascendant at 1 Leo is activated by Saturn (1 Capricorn) as it approaches its direct station in that same degree on September 29.   Read more...


Will Mars retrograde boost Trump's campaign?

(2 September 2020) With just two months to go before the election, President Donald Trump finds himself trailing in the polls behind Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.  While Trump has seen a slight uptick in support over the past few weeks, Biden still enjoys a solid 7-point lead.  Trump's polling numbers have trended modestly higher in August as he has benefited from the ongoing rioting and civil unrest in cities such as Portland, Seattle and most recently, Kenosha, Wisconsin.  As an early indicator of possible growing support, political betting markets now see a 50% chance of a Trump win in November.   This is up from just a 35% chance of winning at the beginning of August.  Betting markets are less reliable than polls, however.

This upward trend in support may well continue into September.  Previously, I suggested that the Biden-Harris campaign would likely experience a significant setback in September.  This was closely related to the Mars retrograde station that occurs on September 9.   Read more...


Markets await keynote speech from Fed Chair Powell

(26 August 2020) US stocks continued their march to new record highs this week as investors look forward to tomorrow's keynote speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell at the annual Jackson Hole Conference.  Powell is expected to announce a major shift in the Fed's inflation policy, most likely to allow for more inflation through the notion of "average inflation".  So instead of keeping its strict inflation ceiling of 2% per year, the Fed would temporarily accept higher rates of inflation without having to raise interest rates.  The higher limit for inflation is designed to give the Fed more leeway in its various stimulus efforts, including more QE (quantitative easing), active management of the bond yield curve, and perhaps even buying stocks directly. 

While this would be a major departure for the Fed, a similar approach has been in effect with decidedly mixed results in Japan for 20 years as that country has struggled to fuel any kind of economic growth and inflation given its shrinking and aging population.  Needless to say, any hint of more QE is good news for the stock market as the trillions of dollars handed out to banks and hedge funds invariably find their way into riskier assets in search of a return.   Read more...


Democrats nominate Biden for president

(19 August 2020)The 2020 race for the White House entered the home stretch yesterday as Democrats formally nominated Joe Biden to run against President Donald Trump in the November election.  Things are looking up for the former Vice-President, as Biden currently enjoys a 5 to 10 point lead in the polls while Trump struggles to gain a foothold amid the chaos of the Covid pandemic.  

As I have noted previously, the Biden-Harris ticket has a very good chance of winning this election. Trump's transits on Election Day, November 3, look difficult and are likely to see him losing, at least initially before any possible legal challenge.  By contrast, the transits of Joe Biden and his Kamala Harris look better.   On November 3, the Sun (18 Libra) conjoins Biden's 1st house lord Mars (19 Libra) and suggests public prominence while Jupiter (27 Sagittarius) aligns with Mercury (28 Libra) and the unequal 10th house cusp/MC (26 Leo).  And the Mercury direct station that occurs on Election Day aligns exactly with Harris' Ascendant and should give also confer an advantage to the Democrats.   Read more...


Kamala Harris chosen as Biden's VP nominee

(11 August 2020) Kamala Harris won the veepstakes today as Joe Biden chose the junior Senator from California as his running mate in the upcoming November election.  With Biden enjoying a 10-point lead in the national polls over the incumbent President Trump, Ms. Harris finds herself on the cusp of gaining access to the focus of power in Washington, DC.  And with the aging Biden as the Democratic nominee, the Harris pick is all the more significant as many observers wonder if Biden will be mentally and physically capable of completing his first term. 

Her horoscope is clearly a good one.  As I suggested last year, Kamala Harris would likely do reasonably well during the run-up to the primaries, even if she suffered from some telling planetary afflictions during the crucial middle period of the Democratic primaries.  Born with Rahu rising, Harris revels in the role of a trailblazer and a person who likes to break with tradition.   Read more...


Apple carries the market higher

(4 August 2020) US stocks have continued to defy gravity in recent days despite a 32% decline in GDP and a disturbing rise in Covid deaths.  Last week's strong earnings reports from Big Tech confirmed what many already knew: that Apple, Facebook and Amazon are the only stocks holding up the market.  While the rest of the market is lagging badly, Apple and the other tech titans remain in a relentless bull market, fueled by the demand of a population held captive by the coronavirus.

Therefore, the stock market is being kept afloat not only by the machinations of the Fed and the Trump administration, but also by Apple, which is now trading at a new all-time high of $438.  The Apple chart is currently bullish as Jupiter is conjunct Mars within a three degree orb.  Meanwhile, bearish Saturn (3 Capricorn) is not doing much direct damage yet despite its presence in the 1st house.   Read more...


Gold surges to new all-time record high amid US Covid concerns

(28 July 2020) Gold closed at a new all-time record high of $1944 today as the US dollar extended its precipitous decline.  Gold's recent rally is largely the consequence of the falling greenback as the Covid-19 pandemic has forced the Federal Reserve to engage in an unprecedented QE policy of asset purchases.  QE ("quantitative easing") is the more polite, 21st-century way of saying money-printing. 

In order to avoid a collapse, the Fed buys trillions of dollars of government and corporate debt in order to entice institutional investors (e,g, hedge funds, investment banks) to move into riskier assets like stocks, thus keeping the stock market afloat despite deteriorating economic fundamentals.  But all these trillions of Fed-created dollars expand the money supply, and thereby cause the value of the dollar to decline.  Alas, not even Fed Chair Jay Powell can suspend the law of supply and demand.   Read more...


EU Covid bailout boosts stocks

(21 July 2020)  Stocks remained buoyant to start the week after the European Union agreed to a massive $2 Trillion bailout package to combat the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic. After their 30% plunge to the March 23 low, US stocks have climbed back to within just 3% of their February 19 high before the coronavirus crisis. 

While unemployment is still in double digits and many people are barely able to get by on reduced wages, many global markets have rallied on the huge injection of cash from the Federal Reserve and other central banks.  Corporate earnings have taken a hit, of course, but it is the future outlook that matters most for investors as the market tends to look forward by 6-12 months.  Obviously, optimism comes more easily when Fed Chair Jay Powell is busy buying up corporate debt in order push hedge funds and institutional investors into riskier assets like stocks.   Read more...


The state of the race: Biden in front

(14 July 2020) As this strange and difficult year continues to unfold, attention is invariably shifting towards the US presidential election in November.  Republican incumbent Donald Trump is trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden by about 10 points in the polls and most betting markets also have Biden enjoying a large lead.  Given the chaotic government response to Covid-19, it seems that Trump's hopes for re-election are remote.  At this point, there would have to be some unforeseen developments in order for Trump to win this election. 

As we know, Trump's horoscope looks quite difficult on Election Day, November 3.   Retrograde Mercury and Saturn are aligned in a square aspect and this raises the possibility of some significant confusion or disruption with the election result.    Read more...


Stocks rise on China optimism following lunar eclipse

(7 July 2020)  US stocks remained buoyant for the most part to start the week following Monday's surge in Chinese markets.   Monday's winning session extended last week's rally but today (Tuesday) saw some significant selling as investors digested the frightening Covid numbers coming out of the southern US states.  The down day coincided with a bearish Mars-Mercury square aspect that I noted in last week's post.  This aspect was more likely to deliver some downside since it involved Mars (a generally bearish planet) forming a square aspect which also tends to be more bearish. 

It is important to note that the bullish energy of late may be waning as Jupiter has now moved past its conjunction with Pluto.  Typically, Jupiter conjunctions are more bullish during their applying phase and less powerful in their separating phase.  And bearish Saturn is still aligned closely with Ketu (South Lunar Node) which waits for its appropriate triggering planet.   Read more...










 


lotus33