(8 March 2023) The war continues in Ukraine will no end in sight. The first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two weeks ago was marked by little fanfare by either side as the war has entered a more punishing, attritional phase. Ukraine regained some of its lost territory in the fall but the winter has seen Russia counterattack as Putin’s armies remain in control of much of the four contested provinces in the east.
Fighting has been particularly intense in the strategic town of Bakhmut and it now looks as though Russia is on the verge of capturing it. Both sides had funneled considerable resources of men and materiel into the town with thousands of dead and wounded on both sides. While objective reporting of the war is hard to find, it seems that Russia may be taking the upper hand as equipment shortages are hampering Ukraine’s effectiveness on the battlefield. Newly-pledged NATO tanks may be greatly appreciated by President Zelenskiy, but it could be some months yet before they can make a difference.
The horoscope of Ukraine suggests they are in a very tough spot at the moment. Transiting Saturn (6 Aquarius) is forming a very close opposition to all of those planets in early Leo. The Saturn influence on Jupiter, Mercury and Venus reflects the economic devastation that Russia has inflicted on its infrastructure as Ukraine has become almost entirely dependent on NATO financial and military support. Its economy has been so thoroughly disrupted that even government payments to its senior citizens is now being supplied by the US. And now the Saturn opposition is approaching the Sun, the planet that signifies government and its leadership. Zelenskiy himself may be facing a difficult situation in the coming days as the probable loss of Bakhmut could seriously erode moral and confidence and cause some of its allies to question their sponsorship.
More immediately, we can see a very intense Mars alignment occurring in the middle of next week. On Wednesday, March 15, natal Mars (1 Virgo) will be exactly squared by transiting Mars (1 Gemini) and opposed by both the Sun (0 Pisces) and Neptune (1 Pisces). The transiting Moon on Wednesday morning completes the high-energy Grand Cross alignment which should coincide with a significant Mars-type event. Since Mars signifies the military, of course, it seems likely that Ukraine will suffer a military defeat. Given the deteriorating situation in Bakhmut, it is possible that it will finally be lost to the Russians on or near this day. That said, the other afflictions in the chart suggests it could actually be an even more important setback which damages the government (Saturn-Sun) in some way other than a loss of a single town.
It is unclear how financial markets might react to a major Ukrainian military defeat. Markets have likely largely discounted the probable loss of Bakhmut, so it is unlikely is a simple defeat there would move markets very much. But if there is additional political fallout from some such setback, it could have a larger impact on investor sentiment. And with Tuesday’s much-awaited US CPI number, next week is shaping up to be a memorable one in the markets.
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Photo Credit: UNICEF Ukraine
