(19 July 2024)  The 2024 US election campaign is living up to its promise of being a high stakes drama.  Despite being mired in several court cases earlier in the year which culminated in 34 felony convictions, Donald Trump is now the GOP nominee following his formal nomination at the Republican convention yesterday in Milwaukee.  Trump widened his polling lead after an unusually early debate in June exposed President Joe Biden’s fragile mental condition.  Trump’s advantage over Biden widened further after last weekend’s assassination attempt in which Trump emerged unbowed and defiant in the face of a grave threat to his life.

With Trump’s polling lead growing, Biden has faced more calls to step aside from various quarters including members of his own party, the normally-friendly mainstream media, Democratic donors and even staunch allies such as former president Barack Obama. And yet, Biden has steadfastly refused to pull out of the race.  It seems that Biden will try to carry on even if his support erodes further.  It is unclear how much longer he can remain the candidate, especially as the Democratic convention on Aug 19-22 draws nearer.

As a party, the Democrats are in a difficult position. Their presumptive nominee is widely seen as incapable to serving as president for the next four years, while vice-president Kamala Harris has fairly good favorability ratings but little support among independent voters.  If Biden were to drop out of the campaign, it would naturally fall on Harris to be the nominee, although with uncertain support within the party and unimpressive polling numbers versus Trump, it would be an uphill battle.

It is therefore quite possible that if Biden drops out, there will be an open convention in August where delegates would select their preferred candidate in a series of votes, not unlike the old days.  If it does go to an open convention, it is anybody’s guess who would come out on top.  And even if Biden doesn’t drop out before August 19, there is a still a chance that he could lose the nomination through a free vote on the convention floor.

I’ve previously suggested that Biden will likely be forced out.  One of the possible exit windows around July 9 has already passed, as Saturn conjoined his IC/4th house cusp and Mercury aligned with Rahu and his natal Saturn (16 Taurus).  This transit set up coincided with growing dissatisfaction with Biden amid growing calls for him to sit out the campaign.  The next major transit may well be when Mars conjoins his natal Saturn (16 Taurus) in the first week of August while the Sun squares his natal Mars (19 Libra).  This is likely to bring further setbacks for Biden, and he could withdraw from the race at that time.

But another reason why I think Biden is unlikely to be the nominee is because of the transits at the time of the Democratic convention.   Saturn (23 Aquarius) will still be a close conjunction with the IC/4th cusp while Mars will form a square with Saturn and the IC (and of course a square with his MC/10th house cusp).  This is a very difficult transit combination since the 4th/10th house axis is closely linked with personal fortunes and career progress.  Jupiter (23 Taurus) will also be in the neighborhood, but it is unclear if this typically positive influence will exert much power given the Mars-Saturn double whammy.  However, benefic Venus will be in the mix at that time as it conjoins his 10th house cusp (MC) although it may not be enough to offset the other afflictions.  Win or lose, the density of these alignments suggests the convention will be an intense and eventful experience for him.

USA Articles of Confederation 1781 chart

Another perspective on this question may be found in the USA horoscope.  As we know, there is no single horoscope for the United States that everyone can agree upon.  Rather, there is several possible charts, each with its own historical and astrological justifications.  There are no less than four different times in common use for the Independence Day date of July 4, 1776, as well as other other charts that mark other significant milestones in US history, including the start of the Revolutionary War against England in 1775, the adoption of the Constitution in September 1787 and the inauguration of the first President George Washington in April 1789.  All of these charts may be useful in some way, even if none are karmically definitive by themselves.

Another chart worth considering is the Articles of Confederation chart dated March 1, 1781.  The Articles of Confederation was an early attempt at a formal constitution that legally bound together the thirteen colonies into a single sovereign unit.  I became aware of this chart through the work of astrologer Ron Grimes in the early 2000s who rectified it to 3.19 pm in Philadelphia.

I recently rediscovered this chart when searching my own astrology files after the Trump assassination attempt.  The charts I usually refer to (e.g. July 4, 1776 6.30 pm) didn’t show the shooting as clearly as they should have given the huge national importance of the event.  But in the Articles horoscope, the Mars-Uranus conjunction occurred in close conjunction with the Moon of this chart at 2 Taurus.  That is an impressive hit.  With Cancer rising, the Moon is doubly important as both the lagnesh and the significator for the population as a whole.  The shocking and violent shooting seemed to aptly reflect the Mars-Uranus combination atop the Moon of this USA chart.

But if Biden is going to drop out, then it should show up in this chart also.  We can see that transiting retrograde Saturn (23 Aquarius) is backing into a conjunction with the 8th house Sun (20 Aquarius).  Traditionally, the Sun is the significator for the president and government leaders.  The Saturn conjunction here is an affliction that implies setbacks and difficulty. It may also increase the probability that Biden will drop out.   Moreover, the 10th house represents the government as a whole and it contains the sign of Aries, which is ruled by Mars.  Mars (25 Scorpio) receives the nasty full-strength square aspect of Saturn within two degrees while it also receives the opposition aspect of Mars (26 Taurus).

This is another double affliction that suggests that Biden and the US government (Sun + 10th house ruler Mars) will be under intense pressure in August, especially around the time of the Democratic convention.  While this Saturn-Mars alignment could represent some other area of concern for the US government, it is quite possible that it will involve Biden personally.  He could well be forced out at the convention, if not before.