(12 April 2023) The Fed has finally admitted what many analysts have been saying for months: a recession later this year is inevitable.  While the Fed chose to blame the banking crisis for the imminent slowdown, the deeply inverted yield curve has been signaling a coming recession since last year.  Stocks reversed lower on today’s release of the Fed minutes, despite an encouraging inflation report that showed the CPI had moderated to 5% on an annual basis, even if core CPI actually ticked a bit higher to 5.6%.

The stock market has been going mostly sideways in the past few months, albeit with a bullish bias as it is trading above its 200-day moving average of 3947 on the S&P 500.  Its recent relative strength has been surprising given the ongoing Saturn-Ketu aspect, however.  Both of these planets are traditionally seen as malefic influences and their 120-degree aspects tend to coincide more with declines.  And yet stocks have moved higher in the past few weeks anyway.

One possible explanation for this anomaly is that the position of Ketu (i.e. the South Lunar Node) is a matter of some debate.  The position of the lunar nodes can be measured in terms of either their true position or their mean position.  The current true node (9Li59) position of Ketu is about half a degree away from its mean position (10Li28), although this difference was as large as one and half degrees just three weeks ago.  As we move into the eclipse period (Apr 20-May 5), this difference between the true and mean lunar node positions will fall to zero.

This means that Ketu’s alignment with Saturn has a margin of measurement error.  According to the true lunar node position, the Saturn-Ketu aspect was exact on Tuesday, April 11 and is now separating.  And yet using the mean nodal position, the aspect will be exact next Tuesday, April 19.  Of course, since both Saturn and Ketu are slow moving planets, the aspect will remain in effective range for perhaps a week or two past the exact aspect, although this range is also an approximation.

And since the Saturn-Ketu aspect is a slow motion affliction, it may need a third planet to act as a trigger, regardless of which Ketu position we use.  Mercury performed this triggering function last week when it opposed Ketu and conjoined Rahu on April.  Although last week’s decline was modest,  fast-moving Mercury fulfilled its triggering function for the ongoing Saturn-Ketu aspect.  The Sun may also act as a trigger for this reservoir of negative energy next week when it opposes Ketu and conjoins Rahu for Thursday’s solar eclipse.

Eclipses are not inherently bearish, however, as each one must be analyzed according to the relative positions of all the planets.  Next week’s eclipse does look tense though as the Sun-Moon conjunction at 5 Aries will form a near-exact square with power-hungry Pluto at 6 Capricorn.  The Pluto involvement here suggests political intrigue which may or may not have an impact on financial markets.  But with the Saturn-Ketu aspect still in play, there is good reason for caution.  While the solar eclipse is due next Thursday, the actual Sun-Ketu opposition that could also act as a trigger will not occur until Monday, April 24.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

Photo Credit: Bytemarks