(27 July 2022) What is a recession?  Up to now, economists have defined it as two straight quarters of negative growth.  But if the Biden White House has its way, that could be changing.  Tomorrow’s GDP report is expected to deliver a negative Q2 print which would fulfill the definition of a recession since Q1 was also negative.  But this week White House officials such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and even Fed Chair Jerome Powell have suggested that the US is not in a recession and the definition should be more flexible to account for a relatively healthy job market. To be sure, unemployment remains under 4% although numbers are beginning to creep higher.

Stocks surged higher today as the Fed hinted it could pause rate hikes if inflation shows signs of moderating.  The rally was not hugely unexpected given tomorrow’s Jupiter retrograde station.  Jupiter, the most bullish planet, stations twice a year wherein its direction appears to reverse from our perspective on the Earth.  The five-day periods around these stations can often coincide with positive market outcomes since Jupiter’s unusually low velocity increases its positive influence.  As expected, we saw some early week selling on the Mercury-Mars square but once that alignment had moved past exact late on Tuesday, sentiment became more positive as Jupiter’s energy could shine through unimpeded.

I would note that tomorrow’s New Moon aligns fairly closely with that stationary retrograde Jupiter and therefore could well coincide with more optimism.   The Moon exactly conjoins the Sun around 2 pm EDT in New York, while Jupiter will turn retrograde around 4.30 pm, shortly after the close of trading tomorrow.    But just to muddy the waters, there is a bearish contraparallel due tomorrow also, as Mars (15N00) aligns with Saturn (-15S00) and introduces the possibility of a reversal lower, later in the day or perhaps on Friday.

However, my attention is more focused on the triple conjunction of Mars, Uranus and Rahu (North Lunar Node) set for Monday, August 1.  On paper, this is a nasty-looking set up involving two malefics (Mars and Rahu) that suggests high-energy and unpredictable events which could bring some significant troubles.  While this alignment looks bad, a quick check of the historical record shows that previous similar triple conjunctions in January 1992 and April 2007 did not coincide with any major market moves.  And the late April 2007 alignment was actually bullish for the market.  Therefore, we should be careful not to jump to any conclusions.

And yet there is still some downside risk associated with this triple conjunction since the transit of Mars in particular could activate the ongoing Saturn-Neptune-Uranus-Chiron alignment.  As I have previously noted, this four-planet alignment is one reason why markets have been declining in recent months.  The difficulty stems from the fact that the Saturn-Uranus midpoint (12 Pisces) is conjunct the Neptune-Chiron midpoint (12 Pisces). This conjunction of midpoints sets up a bearish resonance since Saturn is the decisive negative influence amid the other three neutral planets.

Another way of understanding this alignment is that the angular separation of Saturn (29 Capricorn) and Neptune (1 Pisces) is 32 degrees, which is the same distance between Uranus (24 Aries) and Chiron (22 Pisces).  Since all four of these planets move very slowly, they usually require faster-moving trigger planets to activate the other four planets either by conjunction or by other alignments with 32 degrees of separation.  This is what happened last Friday July 22, as the market fell by more than 1% when Mercury and Venus were separated by the same 31-32 degrees.   With Mars due to conjoin Uranus (and Rahu) next week and thereby setting up a potential 32 degree trigger of the larger Saturn alignment, there is good reason to be cautious.  Let’s see what happens.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.