(28 June 2023) The war in Ukraine took an unexpected turn last week after the mutiny of the Wagner Group, a semi-private mercenary organization under the command of Yevgeny Prigozhin. While the rebellion quickly collapsed within 24 hours, many observers are speculating on its possible impact on the leadership of President Vladimir Putin.  The fact that the mutiny occurred at all suggests that Putin has been significantly weakened and the whole affair raises questions about the future of Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine.

There are a couple of interesting astrological perspectives on this event.  First, the horoscope of Putin himself reflects the sudden turmoil of the mutiny.  We can see that the event occurred very close to the Mars-Uranus square (= sudden or unexpected violence) and that this aligned with Putin’s MC (Midheaven) or unequal 10th house cusp.  The 10th house symbolizes status and position, and thus the combined influence of Mars and Uranus represented the sudden attack on his status as leader of Russia. The exact Mars conjunction to his natal Ketu (25 Cancer) highlighted the unexpected nature of the event since Ketu symbolizes extraordinary situations.

On the question of whether this will weaken Putin’s hold on power, the outlook is less clear.  The transit of Saturn (13 Aquarius) near his 5th house cusp (10 Aquarius) can be seen as an underlying affliction in his chart.  Since Saturn is retrograde, it will tighten its conjunction with the 5th house cusp in the coming weeks.  Therefore, we should not be surprised to see Putin remain in an uncomfortable situation in the weeks ahead.  By most accounts, Russia is slowly winning the war but the conflict has devolved into a protracted struggle of attrition.  And yet, there is nothing in the chart that suggests Putin will be deposed any time soon. But I would expect Putin’s frustrations to continue into July as a consequence of this difficult Saturn transit.

The other major problem in the chart this year is the Neptune-Mars square.  Neptune (weakness, dissolution) is exactly square his natal Mars (action, energy, military prowess) and suggests an erosion or weakening of his capabilities.  This a serious affliction that is arguably more troublesome than the Saturn transit and will remain with range for the rest of 2023 and into 2024.  It is possible that the fallout from the Neptune-Mars alignment may refer to Russia’s war efforts rather than Putin’s hold on power.  The two are so intertwined, however, that it is difficult to distinguish one from the other.

Nonetheless, I would expect Putin’s problems to multiply in 2024 when Neptune returns to square Mars and Saturn aligns with his 5th house cusp once again. In addition, transiting Ketu will conjoin Mercury (0 Libra) in September 2023 and then continue on its retrograde path and conjoin Neptune, Saturn and the Sun during early 2024. These Ketu transits is more likely to bring more setbacks for Putin and the Russian military.

For another perspective on these developments, we can refer to the horoscope of the invasion itself.  Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 at around 5.30 a.m. Moscow time.  The resulting natal chart provides clues to the progress of the invasion itself.  The mutiny occurred just as Saturn (13 Aquarius) was in close conjunction with the Sun (11 Aquarius) and exactly square the Moon (13 Scorpio).  Since Saturn signifies loss, failure and obstacles, this double Saturn affliction suggests the invasion has suffered a major setback.

Russia’s military efforts may remain mixed at best in the coming weeks, at least until Saturn transits over the Sun at 11 Aquarius in the first week of August.  Aside from any lingering questions about Putin’s leadership, the Russian army will likely to struggle through the month of July with increased probability of suffering military defeats.  A period of relative improvement could begin in August and September, however.

But once Saturn stations direct in November, it will once again move towards aligning with the Sun-Moon square in the invasion chart. This alignment will be exact in January and February and could mark an even more major setback for the Russian army.

Overall, there is good reason to think that Putin’s leadership has been damaged.  With additional transits of Saturn, Ketu and Neptune over the next 6-9 months, we could see Putin and Russia move from a position of relative strength to one of increasing military vulnerability.

For the sake of balance, I will post a reassessment the horoscopes of Ukraine and President Zelenskiy over the next week or two.