(5 December 2024) One of the most basic assumptions in both astrology and financial astrology is that malefic planets produce negative outcomes. In traditional astrological systems such as Jyotish, Mars and Saturn are considered naturally malefic planets. When they are prominent in some way through aspect, dispositorship or ingress, negative outcomes become more likely. That said, they will not always produce unwanted outcomes because their effects cannot be reduced to their essential nature. There are often times when Mars and Saturn, as well as the lunar nodes, Rahu and Ketu, will coincide with positive results. This often occurs when their temporal qualities are more favorable, such as when they are associated with benefic planets, or they reside in auspicious signs and houses or have benefic dispositors, etc.
In my previous studies of the effects of Mars, we have seen how some alignments with the Sun and Pluto are modestly correlated with negative outcomes in the stock market. The stock market is a handy barometer for assessing the relative impacts of different planets on human sentiment since it does not necessarily require a reference to any specific natal chart. Another topic worthy of investigation is the Mars retrograde cycle. Retrograde cycles are usually associated with a negative influence, at least in so far as forward progress in the areas symbolized by the planet becomes more difficult. As progress and growth are harder to come by during retrograde cycles, our focus shifts to reviewing, revamping and fixing pre-existing problems. While Mercury retrograde cycles are more strongly associated with negative market returns, the Mars retrograde cycle is another phenomenon with a hypothetically bearish bias. But is it really bearish? Let’s see.
The upcoming Mars retrograde station on December 6
The question is especially pertinent now since Mars is due to begin its retrograde cycle on Friday, December 6 at 6.33 p.m EST. This retrograde cycle occurs about once every two years, as Mars retraces about 20 degrees of longitude over the course of its 70 or 80 day retrograde cycle. This week’s Mars retrograde station occurs at 12 degrees of sidereal Cancer and will culminate on February 23, 2025 at 22 Gemini. Therefore, this particular retrograde cycle has a duration of 79 days, although it can vary somewhat due to the irregular orbit of Mars.
On the face of it, one might think that the Mars retrograde cycle might be bearish for stocks. If some Mars alignments have a bearish bias, then its retrograde cycle may also coincide with lower stock prices. This could be especially true around the times of its retrograde and direct stations when Mars has no apparent velocity. As a rule, stationary malefics are said to be even more malefic, particularly if this means they remain in aspect alignments longer than they ordinarily would.
A surprising conclusion: Mars retrograde is not bearish
But the data do not support this assumption. Based on 60 years of data of the Dow Jones Industrial Average that includes 29 Mars retrograde cycles, there is no bearish correlation between retrograde Mars and market performance. Not only is the 70-80 day retrograde cycle not bearish, but the shorter 5 and 10-day periods adjacent to the retrograde and direct stations are also not bearish. In all cases, average price differences across the various time windows were positive. Not only is the Mars retrograde cycle not bearish, it is possible to make an argument that it is actually modestly bullish. Most of the different time parameters showed a more positive outcome than the expected values would have predicted.
It is also worth noting that outcomes were widely divergent. Several recent Mars retrograde cycles (2018, 2020, 2022) were quite positive while some older cycles were decidedly bearish (1973, 1977, 1980). What accounts for these divergent outcomes?
The variation in outcomes is likely explained by other planetary alignments. If the Mars retrograde is not inherently bearish or even slightly bullish, it matters more if there are alignments involving Jupiter, Saturn and other slow-moving planets. In 2022, for example, stocks rose by 5% as Jupiter stationed direct shortly after the Mars Rx station and formed a bullish conjunction with Neptune, while aligning with Pluto. While none of the Jupiter alignments were exact, they were fairly close and suggested at least some bullish effect. In 2020, stocks gained more than 8% as Jupiter conjoined Pluto and aligned with Neptune for all of the Mars retrograde cycle. In 1980, however, stocks fell by 11% during the Mars Rx cycle as Saturn aligned exactly with Uranus. In all of these examples, there were other, more obvious influences in effect.
The takeaway from this study is that astrology is best understood as a multi-factor system in which outcomes are the result of many different variables. Sometimes it is possible to predict with higher confidence market moves on the basis of a single alignment (e.g. Mars-180-Pluto, or Mercury-90-Saturn), but this study suggests that by itself retrograde Mars is not a strong enough influence to qualify as one of these single factor market movers. Mars retrograde can be malefic if it aligns with another planet, but only for the duration of the effective alignment -- usually no more than a 2-3 days -- and certainly not for the entirety of its retrograde cycle.
So despite the apparent warning sign of Mars turning retrograde this Friday, December 6, we should be careful about jumping to any conclusions about its correlation with financial markets. Stocks could still go up or down during this upcoming cycle, depending on the ebb and flow of other alignments.
