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Samantha Power damage spreads
I see that Samantha Power has now resigned from the Obama campaign.
From a previous BBC interview that has come to the attention of the media and the Clinton campaign, it now seems she expressed doubt about Obama's ability to withdraw from Iraq within 16 months. This undermines his stated anti-war stance of a quick withdrawal. Here's the story which was also cited in the NYT.
This is arguably even more embarrassing to the Obama campaign because it undercuts one of his perceived advantages over HRC.
March 7,2008
Venus against Obama
Barack Obama may be feeling the pinch of that double Venus problem I mentioned previously with the revelation that an aide and close friend, Samantha Power, said that Hillary Clinton was "a monster" in an interview with a Scottish newspaper. She has apologized for the embarrassing comments.
In keeping with the symbolism of Venus, it is noteworthy that the source of Obama's embarrassment was a female aide. Obama's natal Venus is currently opposed by Pluto and conjoined by Mars. Meanwhile, transiting Venus conjoins his natal Ketu (south Node). Ketu is known as the "dragon's tail", which is not that far from a "monster".
I think this is only the beginning of Obama's problems over the next few days. Either this story will evolve and become more damaging to him, or more likely he will experience annoyance and obstacles from new developments.
February 15, 2008
Hillary wins New Mexico
A small ray of hope fell upon the Clinton campaign yesterday when it was
announced that Hillary had won the Feb 5 New Mexico primary after a
lengthy recount. While this only gives her two more delegates than
Obama for her victory, it was a much-needed bit of good news in her
beleaguered campaign.
Polls released yesterday also showed her leading Obama by a wide margin
in Ohio and Pennsylvania. While these are seen as pro-Clinton states,
there was some question whether Obama's momentum might be eroding her
base. These positive poll numbers show that she may be able to not only
win these states, but also pick up the delegates needed to close Obama's
lead. All in all, yesterday was a mostly good news day for Hillary —
although a prominent member of the Black caucus John Lewis did come out
in support of Obama.
This up day for Hillary seems to confirm what I had forecast back on Feb
10th that Hillary would lose the Potomac primaries but would have some
gain shortly thereafter. Here's what I wrote then:
"More problematic for Obama is the 13th and 14th when the Venus conjunct
comes exact to Saturn and Sun lines up with the Ketu. Mercury is coming
to station in a square against his natal Neptune. Due to the time lag,
I don't see this difficult pattern being related to primary results but
it will be a noteworthy problem. Hopefully, it will have a public
manifestation so we can check our progress. Will HRC benefit from
this? It's very likely. Sun Venus and Mars all sync up around 2 degree
of their respective signs and set off her Uranus. By itself, the tr
Mars station to the natal Uranus has not done her any favours, but the
presence of these other planets may bring her an unexpected benefit that
helps her campaign."
February 10, 2008
Potomac Primaries
Obama trounced HRC in all three contests last night by huge margins,
despite my prediction to the contrary. In retrospect, I did not take
into full account the negative effect of Tr Sun that opposed Hillary's
Saturn. It formed a t-square with her natal Mercury as well and with tr
Neptune there in the mix as well, she is at her weakest right now,
flailing helplessly, unable to stop Obama's momentum. Astrology 101
really — I just missed seeing it in the chart, plain and simple. I
have to admit I am biased towards Mrs Clinton in the long term because I am predicting her to win the contest eventually. Her more favourable
time really doesn't get going until March, however. On March 4, Texas
and Ohio will vote and likely go Clinton's way since Latinos and working
class voters tend to favour her. As it happens, the corruption trial of
a major Obama backer Tony Rezko begins the day before on March 3 so this may be a source of embarrassment for him.
On Tuesday Feb 12, the so-called Potomac primaries take place in
Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. Like Washington, Nebraska, and Louisiana,
these are must-win states for Obama since the demographics favour him,
as these states have an over-representation of black and educated
voters. And with pro-Clinton states looming next in the nomination
calendar in early March, any losses here would put his campaign in
jeopardy. Expectations are that he will win all three although again
there is some room for interpretation depending on the margin of victory.
While the Sun will have past exact opposition to her Saturn by Tuesday,
it's still pretty close. And there is an absence of any offsetting
favourable influences. Meanwhile, Obama will have tr Venus approaching
his natal Saturn which can be a disappointing combination. However, it
will still be two degress short of conjunction, so there isn't enough of
an affliction to get us to think of huge losses on Tuesday. So Obama
should win these primaries, as advertised. His margin may be smaller
than Saturday's, but that's not saying much. He won Washington by 35
pts. I don't foresee much good news here for Clinton.
More problematic for Obama is the 13th and 14th when the Venus conjunct
comes exact to Saturn and Sun lines up with the Ketu. Mercury is coming
to station in a square against his natal Neptune. Due to the time lag,
I don't see this difficult pattern being related to primary results but
it will be a noteworthy problem. Hopefully, it will have a public
manifestation so we can check our progress. Will HRC benefit from
this? It's very likely. Sun Venus and Mars all sync up around 2 degree
of their respective signs and set off her Uranus. By itself, the tr
Mars station to the natal Uranus has not done her any favours, but the
presence of these other planets may bring her an unexpected benefit that helps her campaign. Rather than anything good happening to her perhaps she will merely reap the perceived media boost from Obama's troubles.
Politics is a zero sum game where your opponents' headaches are a source of your own happiness.
Nonetheless, I don't think this event will be big enough to change the
basic dynamic of the campaign.
February 9, 2008
Obama setback in the cards?
A few more primaries, or rather caucuses today in Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska for the Dems (Kansas for the GOP) and the Virgin Islands. Maine is tomorrow.
Obama is expected to do well here because he usually does better in caucuses than in secret ballot primaries and because the demographics in Washington and Louisiana favour him. I think the consensus is that he is expected to win Washington and Louisiana handily (by at least 10 pts, maybe 20)and be competitive in Nebraska. Hillary is probably favoured to win Maine. But since these aren't winner-take-all contests, winning a state is more about bragging rights and momentum building than boosting one's delegrate count. It's only if the margin of victory is large that it impacts the race, which up to now is virtually tied.
Obama's chart doesn't look that good for today though. 12th lord Mercury opposes his Sun, and the Moon forms a t-square with with natal Mars and tr Mars. Worse still, tr Moon falls under the 3rd house sextile aspect of his natal Saturn this evening during the counting. Also tr Venus has left a Venus-ruled nakshatra and is now in a Sun-ruled one, Uttarashada. This is a less favourable influence I believe, because the tr Sun is currently in his 4th house with Neptune and as mentioned already, Sun is under the transit of the 12th lord of loss, Mercury.
With these patterns in mind, I would think there will be some disappointment in the Obama camp. It seems that the margins of victory may be fairly small (i.e. less than 10 pts) , and he is likely to lose Nebraska. Maine will certainly go to Hillary. It seems impossible that Obama could lose either Washington or Lousiana. Still, I don't see him getting a huge boost here from the results. After the euphoric rallies in Seattle yesterday attended by 17,000, a slim margin of victory would be seen as a momentum buster so maybe that's the more likely scenario than an out and out loss. But an Obama loss in Washington is possible.
By contrast, Mrs Clinton will probably see a nice boost as Moon moves deeper into Pisces later in the evening forming a trine with her natal Jupiter. Maybe Washington won't be as bad for her as the pundits think. Tr Mercury is past aspecting her natal Mars so it's likely done all the damage it can for now. Venus is in good shape near the equal 3rd house cusp.
It's hard to sure about these lesser elections since the planetary patterns may be reflecting not the results but some other elements going on behind the scences. This is especially true when the contests at hand are not critical and whose results may be well known beforehand through extensive polling.
We'll find out soon enough.
February 8, 2008
Obama
As Super Tuesday approaches and the US primary season reaches its
critical peak, a quick look at Barack Obama's chart suggests the end of
his time on the national stage may be near. While his charismatic
candidancy has struck a chord across the country, he still trails
Hillary Clinton in national polls, although the gap has narrowed to
single digits in the past week.
The chart looks decidedly mixed for Tuesday with some great placements
like tr Venus on his 3rd house cusp (successful efforts, happy
communications)
. But tr Mercury is with Neptune near his IC (unequal
4th cusp) and since Mercury contains some maleficence through its 12th
house lordship, there may be a sense of unease in the coming days. His
P3 chart shows a t-square with progressed Moon-Mercury- Neptune which
also reinforces the notion that things are not quite working out as
planned on Feb 5.
He is currently in the dasha sequence of Jupiter-Venus-Mercury. Venus
is well placed in the 9th disposited by Mercury in the 10th but Venus
contains the potential for problems through the aspect from Ketu.
Mercury is fairly well esconced in the 10th but the helpful aspect from
Jupiter is somewhat compromised by Saturn's aspect. Generally this is a
good combination but it could go against him if the transits turn bad.
My sense is Tuesday will go well enough for him but nothing extreme
either way. He's both unlikely to take the lead in delegates or the
polls and neither will his campaign fizzle. At the end of it, there may
still be sense that he faces an uphill battle to win the nomination
perhaps because he hasn't done as well as he had hoped.
A potential turning point in his campaign may be the period of March
9-12 when transiting Mercury and Venus conjoin his natal Ketu. This
occurs at the same time that transiting Mars conjoins his Venus while
Pluto moves to within one degree of opposition. Also note there is a P4
Mars station exact on March 8 that occurs in a 4 degree square with his
natal Venus. This looks very unfavourable to him and possibly his wife
as well given the Venus symbolism that suggests some kind of major
misfortune. It looks as if there will some kind of aggressive action
(Mars) or powerplay (Pluto) against him that distorts and prevents
(Ketu) his success (Venus/Mercury). These short term transits take
place against a negative backdrop of transiting Saturn backing into a
malefic 10th house square aspect to his natal Moon. It comes near exact
in May so that would be the most likely time for him to drop out of the
campaign.
