Can Trump really win?

(15 January 2016) The US Republican held its most recent debate last night with the first primary just two weeks away.  Frontrunner Donald Trump put in another strong performance and showed no signs of losing his hold on his formidable 20-point lead in national polls.  The populist real estate billionaire has enjoyed a huge lead in the polls since July and has continuously defied pundits who have frequently predicted his freewheeling campaign's imminent collapse.  Instead of undermining his popularity, however, his controversial and combative style has actually seen him rise in most polls as his anti-immigrant and anti-free trade message is resonating with many Americans. 

But can Trump maintain his lead now that it actually matters and people go to the polling booth to vote?  There are only two weeks remaining before the Iowa Caucus on February 1st., and then the New Hampshire primary is held the following week on February 9th.  The latest Iowa polls show that Trump in a very tight race with conservative Ted Cruz and while Trump leads his nearest rival by 18 points in New Hampshire.  Traditionally, the eventual GOP nominee needs to win either Iowa or New Hampshire if they want to create sufficient momentum to go on to win later primaries in South Carolina (Feb 20), Nevada (Feb 23) and especially on "Super Tuesday" on March 1st when 14 states hold primaries.   Even if Trump loses Iowa to Cruz, at this point he looks to be a good bet to win New Hampshire.  A win in NH would fulfill a basic minimum expectation for his campaign as it gears up for later primaries.

My view hasn't changed since I wrote about the Trump campaign in August.  At that time, I thought that Trump might soon experience some loss of popularity but that he would be strong enough to comeback and win at least one primary in February.  I thought that his horoscope showed a kind of peak in February as the Jupiter retrograde station in January aligned with several of his natal planets quite powerfully.  I will admit that I mistakenly thought Trump would suffer greater problems in the fall and he might lose his lead in the polls in September and October.  It turned out that the difficulties were simply all the bad press he was getting for his often outrageous statements.  All the controversy only served to boost his popularity further.  So I was wrong in that expectation, but at least he is now in a good position to win one or two early primaries as I predicted he might.

Trump's astrological problem is that his chart doesn't look good on March 1st for Super Tuesday.  Candidates who are going to win the nomination have to do well on March 1st where there are so many delegates up for grabs.  Trump's chart looks challenging to say the least as Mars is at the very bottom of the chart aligning with his Ascendant and natal Mars.  This is almost never good and, in fact, should coincide with a setback.  Yes, Mars is very much Trump's planet -- it rises in his chart and gives him his fiery nature -- but this is a bad place for it. 

Transiting Mercury will also oppose his Mars in the days following Super Tuesday, so I would expect negative fallout from his results there.  In addition, the Republican field will narrow substantially in late February and early March as candidates face the music and are forced to drop out.  Trump's lead may well evaporate anyway as the non-Trump vote is shared between fewer rivals.  I would think that the consequences of Super Tuesday will reveal Trump's weakness and he will appear vulnerable for the first time.

I would expect Trump's troubles to continue into April when Mars is due to station retrograde near 15 degrees of sidereal Scorpio.  Mars will therefore cast its malefic 8th house aspect onto his Mercury in the 11th house of wishes and gains.  One of the basic tenets of political astrology is that a candidate must have a strong 11th house in order to win.  If Trump is still managing to hold onto a delegate lead into April, this mid-April Mars station may be the time when he could finally lose it.  Interestingly, that Mars stations at 14 Scorpio hits his campaign chart on the 4th house cusp and squares the Ascendant and Neptune. It repeats the difficult placement of March 1st in his natal chart.  This is another indication that April will be difficult for him.  Saturn (21 Scorpio) is due to retrograde back to 15 Scorpio in early August so Trump could find himself falling out of favour by that time.

I think Marco Rubio (May 28, 1971, no time) could move in front of him in April as Rubio will get a double boost from the Jupiter station in Leo (which is exact in May) as it closely aspects his Mercury and Venus in Aries.  Trump could remain in the race for a while, but the Mars direct station in July at 29 Libra hits his Sun almost exactly by 8th house aspect.  It doesn't look good.  It is possible he could bow out at that time. 

I will revisit the state of the GOP race after we get a couple of February primary results to see where we are.  Hopefully by that time, the birth times of the other candidates may be released as they become more well known.