UK polls now show slim lead for Brexit ahead of EU referendum

(7 June 2016) The UK appears to be inching closer to doing the unthinkable as weekend polls showed the Leave side gaining a slight edge for the first time since the campaign began.  The UK is due to hold a referendum on its EU membership on June 23rd.   Political betting markets are still indicating that a "Brexit" is the less likely outcome although the odds for the Leave side have risen somewhat recently and are now approaching 30%. 

As I posted several months ago, the planetary alignments offer strong astrological evidence for Brexit.  As I noted back in February, several of the relevant horoscopes showed considerable instability in June.  The referendum day transits alone were likely enough to make a case for a Leave vote since Uranus was changing sidereal signs into Aries on the very day of the vote. Uranus is the planet of sudden change, independence and often rebelliousness.   When it changes signs every 7 years, there is usually some symbolically equivalent event which reflects its unstable energy within days of its sign change or ingress. (N.B.  I am using the Krishnamurti ayanamsha although occurs only a couple of days alter using Lahiri.)  It seems more than just coincidence that the UK would be holding this referendum on the same day that this Uranian energy is peaking. 

The vote is still two weeks away, but the momentum appears to be shifting towards the Leave side.  Polls can be unreliable, however, and with the betting markets still expecting the Remain side to win, there would have to be more movement towards the Brexit camp.  Interestingly, the UK national horoscope (1 January 1801, midnight) also provides good evidence that the Leave side is more likely to win, or at very least create the conditions for significant instability.

There are a few key alignments here.  The most obvious to me is the Jupiter-Rahu conjunction at 21-22 Leo and its combined aspect to the natal Mars at 20 Aries.  Mars represents action and its placement in the 8th house implies change, death/life and even rebirth. Jupiter stationed direct exactly in aspect to the Mars back in May but it is now moving away.  A Jupiter-Mars aspect may symbolize an initiating and courageous action but usually within a balanced context.  If Rahu was not involved in this alignment, the evidence for voting to Leave the EU would be weaker. 

But Rahu often brings boldness and even recklessless.  There is a desire to break with the status quo with Rahu as it seeks novelty over tradition.   Rahu perhaps represents 'change at all costs'.  Despite the warnings of various bankers, economists and UK corporate leaders that there will be a significant price to be paid if Britain leaves the EU, many people are tuning out these calls for prudence from the elite. And it is worth noting that Rahu will be closer to an exact aspect to Mars than Jupiter as it is approaching its 120 degree aspect while Jupiter is now separating.  The disruptive influence of Rahu will therefore have the upper hand over Jupiter's inherent preference for balanced or 'right' action.

The transit of Mars also adds to the overall picture of intense debate and conflict.  Mars (29 Libra) will station direct a week after the vote and will therefore form a close alignment (119 degree) with the natal Moon (28 Gemini).  This is not a full strength Mars aspect according to Vedic rules, but it nonetheless is a partial strength aspect which is close enough to exact to add to the overall tension. 

Transiting Saturn (17 Scorpio) is sitting on the equal 3rd house cusp (16 Scorpio) and will station direct very close to the cusp in August at 15 Scorpio.  That is a negative influence and may reflect the negative financial fallout of circumstances surrounding the referendum.  Many economists including Bank of England chief Mark Carney have warned of dire economic consquences if Britain leaves Europe.  This Saturn station on the 3rd house -- and therefore aspecting the 12th house of loss through its forward square aspect -- may well reflect a summer of pessimism and declining economic activity in the UK. 

And on the day of the referendum, Mercury (23 Taurus), representing communication and thinking, will be in an exact alignment with natal Ketu (23 Virgo) which symbolizes unexpected or unconventional situations.  While it is possible this could reflect confusion at the polls or difficulty in tallying the vote, it may simply reflect the surprising nature of the outcome.  Again, this alignment would appear to support a Leave campaign win. 

It's still possible that these various indications may only signify tension and rising anxiety over the vote rather than the outcome itself.  Even a close vote to Remain could be seen as divisive and weakening the strength of the EU going forward.  And yet, given the afflictions presents in these charts, I would be surprised if somehow the UK voted to stay in the EU.

Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks moved mostly higher last week as last week's disappointing US jobs report took the prospect of a June Fed rate hike off the table.  This disproportionately benefited emerging markets such as India as a lower Dollar ensured that more foreign institutional investors would raise their overseas exposure. 

Markets are somewhat stronger here than I had expected, although most stocks remain below their 2015 highs.  Monday's upside was correlated with the Sun-Venus conjunction at 22 Taurus.  This created a broad degreewise alignment with Jupiter (21 Leo) and Rahu (22 Leo) as well as Pluto (22 Sagittarius).   This was clearly a positive planetary influence that predicted early week upside.  As the faster-moving planet, Venus will overtake the Sun today (Tuesday) and so we may see a lessening of optimism as the week progresses.  In addition, I would think that the Mercury-Mars opposition in the second half of the week could correspond to some significant downside across many markets. 

And just to to be clear, if the UK does vote to leave the EU, then this should be negative for stocks worldwide.  Certainly, the Mars-Uranus alignment in late June -- along with the Uranus ingress --  looks sufficiently volatile to produce some turbulence.  Therefore, the probability will rise that this current rally that has prevailed in most markets since February will run into some trouble. 

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter includes discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.