Week of August 29 – September 2

Stocks rise into Jupiter station; midweek Mercury-Rahu may create uncertainty

So stimulus if necessary, but not necessarily stimulus.  US Stocks staged an impressive rebound last week as Friday’s speech from Fed Chair Bernanke put off any decision on further quantitative easing (QE3) until September.   This deferred decision was good enough for markets as the Dow climbed 4% closing at 11,284 while the S&P500 finished the week at 1176.  The picture was more bearish in Mumbai, however, the Sensex made new lows for the year closing at 15,848.   The Nifty ended the week at 4747. 

This outcome was disappointing as I had expected more across the board selling on the late week Mars-Saturn aspect.  While Thursday was lower when the aspect was exact, the size of the decline was more modest than expected.  Indian markets were more directly affected by this bearish combination, however, due to a close affliction in the BSE natal chart.  We also saw some significant gains on most global markets in the early week period from the Sun-Venus-Neptune pattern. The Sun-Neptune opposition coincided quite closely with the precipitous drop in gold on Tuesday and Wednesday just as the Sun was entering tropical Virgo. 

Transits for Monday August 29, 2011  9.30 a.m. New York

So while bearish Saturn still seems to be the dominant energy these days, we saw a glimpse of Jupiter’s optimistic nature last week ahead of its retrograde station on August 30.  It is not unusual for planets to express themselves more fully around the time of their direct and retrograde stations, especially a slow moving and powerful planet like Jupiter. Bernanke’s tentative approach to the Fed’s next move was perhaps an appropriate manifestation of this competing energy of both Saturn and Jupiter.  A weaker Jupiter might have precluded any further easing, but on this occasion we got a kind of stalemate between the need to expand and the need to constrain.  Interestingly, the next Fed meeting will occur on September 20-21, just a few days before the Saturn-Ketu aspect.  This suggests that optimism may be in short supply and there could be a limited appetite for more easing as Saturn’s preference for austerity is more in evidence.  The interaction with Ketu suggests some kind of fundamental or structural reordering may be in the air.  This could result either from new and unusual moves the Fed makes, or perhaps from the reaction to its announcement.  What would happen if the Fed threw another stimulus party but nobody came?

This week looks like a mixed bag.  Jupiter’s retrograde station on Monday and Tuesday could be a mostly positive influence here.  A bullish Venus-Jupiter aspect early in the week gives way to another dubious looking aspect between Mercury and Rahu by Wednesday.  The end of the week offers up a dog’s breakfast of aspects as the bullish Sun-Jupiter aspect occurs simultaneously to a nasty Mars-Rahu aspect. These could conceivably cancel each other out, butthe presence of Mars is cause for some concern here.

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Week of August 22 – 26

A slow motion crash?: markets fall with Saturn

 

They say that when you’re in a car accident, everything slows down.  You become acutely aware that it’s going to happen, and your senses heighten to take in the details as it all unfolds.  These days the stock market appears to be involved in its own version of a slow motion accident.  Stocks fell for the fourth straight week last week as the meeting between Merkel and Sarkozy produced little in the way of tangible solutions for the European debt crisis.  In New York, the Dow fell more than 4% closing at 10,817 while the S&P500 finished the week at 1123.  It was a similar story in Mumbai as the BSE-Sensex lost 4% closing at 16,141 with the Nifty ended the week below the 5K level for the first time since 2010 at 4845.   While the extent of the late week declines were a little surprising, I was correct in my forecast for gains around the early week triple conjunction of Sun, Mercury and Venus.  Most markets rose into Wednesday around this bullish alignment, but once the planets began to separate and weaken, the selling resumed.   As I noted in last week’s post, the Rahu aspect to Mercury created more the potential for more uncertainty and opened the door to unexpected and sudden developments.

With fear and anxiety rising over the renewed possibility of a recession, the declines have for the most part been fairly orderly.  The 500 point daily swings in the Dow notwithstanding, we have not a proper crash yet, as the correction has been marked by a series of down days with the usual number of rebound up days sprinkled in to keep people guessing.  The absence of any big news shock-type crash event has allowed the decline to inflict its damage piece meal.  Most investors have largely stayed in the market hoping that this gradual decline will eventually turn around.

But as I have been suggesting for a while, the planets do not favour a reversal higher any time soon. Saturn the pessimist is very much in control here as it comes under the dual influences of Mars and Ketu.  Both Mars and Ketu are considered negative and tend to bring out the worst in Saturn, i.e. excessive fear and caution.  The Mars-Saturn aspect has been gathering energy over the past few weeks and may well peak this week as the exact aspect occurs on Thursday, August 25.  The Saturn-Ketu aspect isn’t due to be exact until September 23 so there is some reason to expect that the current negative outlook won’t change significantly in the near term.  Nonetheless, the first (slim) chance for a reversal will occur after Thursday.

 

Transits for Thursday August 25, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York

What’s doubly problematic for the markets right here is that Mercury, the planet of trading and commerce, ends its retrograde cycle on Friday.  Its direct station at 24 Cancer therefore still falls under the influence of Rahu at 26 Scorpio.  This increases the possibility of more unexpected movements in the markets and is generally a negative influence, especially given the Mars-Saturn square aspect.  Coincidentally, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke will make his annual speech from Jackson Hole on Friday morning — just hours after the exact Mars-Saturn aspect and hours before the Mercury direct station.  The proximity of these events increases the odds that his speech will move markets significantly, although the direction is somewhat less clear.  We can see some positive aspects in play that day such as the Sun-Venus aspects to Uranus and Pluto.  However, the Mars-Saturn square is about as bad as it gets.  But since it will be separating from its exact aspect at the time Bernanke is speaking, it is possible it will have less negative impact.  Bernanke is expected to announce some kind of new policy to help the flagging US economy but it is unclear just what he has in mind.  Since expansionary Jupiter turns retrograde on August 30, it seems more likely that Bernanke will offer some new program to increase liquidity and credit availability.  However, it seems less likely that any new program will have the same positive market effect as last year’s QE2 announcement.

The bottom line is this Mars-Saturn aspect could well produce more downside this week.  It also increases the possibility of some larger, crash-type moves.  I’m not saying a crash is probable, but the presence of these difficult aspects increases the odds of a crash from the usual 1 in 1000  to something quite a bit higher, like 1 in 4. That’s no where near probable (50%+), of course, but it is something to consider.  Perhaps 2011 will be remembered as the slow motion crash.
 

 

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Week of August 15 – 19

Mars panics markets in wake of downgrade; triple conjunction offers relief

 

Markets suffered from a bout of temporary insanity (or perhaps schizophrenia?) last week following the US debt downgrade as investors sought out safer places to put their money.   After gyrating more than 500 points in both directions on four consecutive days, the Dow was only 2% lower for the week closing at 11,269 while the S&P finished at 1178.  Indian markets were less volatile although the Sensex still lost more than 2% overall closing at 16,839 with the Nifty ending the week at 5072.

All the panic and turmoil was very much in keeping with expectations as I anticipated that the Mars alignment with Uranus and Pluto would be negative.  While we did not see any obvious manifestations of literal violence, the market did move violently as the unpredictable and powerful energy of the Mars affliction took its toll.  I thought we would see most of the damage in the first half of the week and that was indeed the case in the US, Europe and Asia as Tuesday marked the low, at least on an intraday basis.  Once the Mars alignment began separating after Wednesday, there was a gradual lessening of volatility and trading volume as prices rose into Friday. 

While we can correlate the gradual strengthening of Saturn in recent weeks with the return of pessimism and caution, the US debt downgrade may also be seen in terms of the Uranus-Pluto square aspect.  As I have written previously, the Uranus-Pluto square is the ultimate celestial prime mover these days as these two distant planets will remain in aspect until 2013.  This aspect is mostly negative because it erodes stability and is often correlated with long term structural changes in the economy and society.  This loss of stability therefore increases uncertainty and as we know, markets do not like uncertainty.  As a result, the Uranus-Pluto aspect is usually negative for the value of riskier assets like stocks and positive for safe havens like gold, bonds, and certain unimpeachable currencies. 

Transits for Tuesday, August 16, 2011 7.30 p.m.  New York

The passing Mars alignment to this destabilizing Uranus-Pluto aspect last week was a significant release of this powerful energy for change and disruption.  The US debt downgrade to AA+ by S&P is emblematic of this fundamental change, as the world’s leading economy is no longer as strong as it once was.  The debt downgrade may ultimately mark a key historic turning point in the eventual decline of the US from its previously unchallenged status as world superpower.  Such epochal changes are typical of Uranus-Pluto aspects as old orders stagnate and decline while new structures and organizations rise to fill the vacuum. 

This week looks calmer and even rather positive.   There is a triple conjunction of Sun, Venus and retrograde Mercury that occurs in the last degree of Cancer on Tuesday/Wednesday.  This is likely to generate more optimism and help to boost prices.  The presence of the aspect from Rahu (North Lunar Node) is somewhat of a wild card, however.  Rahu can distort and confuse the issue so this can reverse the polarity of a planet from positive to negative or exaggerate its effects.  I think exaggeration is more likely this week as a dose of unsustainable Rahuvian enthusiasm could take over.  The insanity continues in a different form.  No matter how positive the news may be here, the planets suggest that the longer term prospects for economic recovery do not look very promising.

 

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Week of August 8 – 12

Stocks plunge on Mercury-Neptune; Mars-Uranus-Pluto is next

The tumultuous events in the markets last week reminded me of Karl Marx’s description of capitalism: "All that is solid melts into air."  Financial stability evaporated last week in the aftermath of the US debt ceiling deal and the spreading debt contagion in the Eurozone.  What was remarkable was the speed at which safe, reliable assumptions about future growth seemed to disappear as investors got a harsh reality check.  In New York, the Dow lost more than 6% closing at 11,444 while the S&P finished the week at 1199.   The damage was less severe in Indian markets as the BSE-Sensex lost 4% closing at 17,305 with the Nifty ended the week at 5211. 

As expected, the Mercury-Neptune opposition did coincide with significant fallout from the US debt deal.  To make matters worse, Mercury stationed and turned retrograde on Tuesday so this amped up the strength of this affliction and Mars joined the alignment on Thursday, the day the Dow tumbled 500 points.  Score one for astrology.   While I had been unsure if the US would make the Aug 2 deadline, I was fairly certain that the market would react badly, which it did. Some of those mitigating Jupiter aspects only offered passing relief to the rising fear as Monday’s Sun-Jupiter aspect delivered gains in Asia as well as a positive open in New York.  These gains were the result of the immediate sense of relief from the signing of the debt ceiling deal.  But it was all Mercury-Neptune after that as disillusion and dismay ruled the roost.  Now that the US is compelled to follow a more austere regime of government spending, who is left to stimulate a stagnating economy that seems to be on the verge of a double dip recession?  Well, no one it seems and therein lies the root of the sell-off.  With Obama’s hands tied and Fed Chair Bernanke also seemingly "out of bullets" despite new rumours of a possible QE3, markets are beginning to realize that the past two years was based entirely on "free" borrowed money which has not created a solid foundation for a sustainable bull market. 

While I was surprised by the intensity of the decline, I noted in last week’s forecast that the planets for early August looked quite bad and that one couldn’t "rule out any negative or disappointing scenarios" for the next two weeks.  We have a truckload of disappointment and negativity now, especially since Standard and Poor’s has downgraded US debt to AA+ for the first time in its history.  This sets up the likelihood of more downside this week as investors try to adapt to the new glass half-empty reality. 

 

Transits for Tuesday August 9 2011 9.30 a.m. New York

If last week’s Mercury-Neptune was the first shoe to drop, this week’s potent Mars-Uranus-Pluto alignment will the second.  More like a boot perhaps.  This is a very nasty pattern that can manifest as situations of shock and violence that are extremely disruptive.  The debt downgrade is likely the partial result of this pattern as Mars slowly moves into position in the celestial cockpit.   I have noted in previous forecasts how we are entering an extended period of upset and reorganization from the Uranus-Pluto square aspect.  This aspect between these slow moving planets began earlier this year and will last into 2012 and 2013.  It is likely to reshape the economic and political landscape much as it did the last time around.   The previous Uranus-Pluto square occurred in 1931-1932 at the height of the depression and the beginning of Nazi Germany and FDR’s New Deal in the US.   Fast-moving Mars is currently activating this pattern so we should expect more chaos and uncertainty this week.  I would not rule out a crash here, although governments may intervened to mitigate the damage so they may be able to prevent worst case scenarios.  The alignment is closest on Tuesday and Wednesday so the first half of the week is perhaps more dangerous than the second half.  I would expect some rebound to occur by Thursday and especially Friday on the Sun-Venus-Uranus pattern. 

 

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Week of August 1 – 5

Washington fiddles as markets burn; Mercury opposes Neptune

Markets did not take kindly to the protracted US debt ceiling negotiations as the risk of a default loomed larger with the approach of the August 2 deadline.  Stocks in New York fell more than 4% with the Dow closing at 12,143 and the S&P500 finishing the week at 1292.  It was a similar story in Mumbai as the RBI’s surprise fifty-point rate hike on Tuesday only added to anxiety levels.  The BSE-Sensex lost more than 2% closing at 18,197 with the Nifty ending the week at 5482.  I thought the chances were high for early week decline on the entry of Mars into sidereal Gemini and that corresponded with Tuesday’s significant losses. However, my expectation for a late week recovery was wide of the mark as markets remained on edge as the debt drama entered its final act.  While I had expected some disappointment and confusion over these debt ceiling negotiations, I thought we would see them closer to the deadline.  However, the problems inherent in the critical Mercury-Neptune opposition have manifested somewhat earlier here. 

As I have noted previously, the poignant coincidence of Mercury turning retrograde while in close opposition to Neptune exactly on the August 2 deadline is already delivering its karmic payload in the form of all the confusion surrounding the debt talks.  Not only is it unclear if a deal will get done in time, but no one is really certain how binding the deadline actually is.  Some commentators have suggested that Obama could extend it a few days in order for both sides to hammer out the details.  Others have suggested the government won’t run out of money for another week or two.  And even if a deal is struck, US debt may still suffer a credit downgrade anyway by one of the rating agencies.  In the end, it’s all about preserving a good credit rating so that the US can continue to borrow money at low interest rates.  Anything that jeopardizes confidence in the ability of the US to repay its loans will result in higher rates which will hurt the economy.  The stock market is also likely to take a negative view of higher interest rates.

Transits for Wednesday August 3, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York

Mercury’s retrograde station this week — due near midnight EDT on Tuesday — heightens the negative effect of its aspect with Neptune.  Since Neptune is no friend to clear logical thinking, we should expect more fallout from these negotiations as uncertainty and unproductive analysis is likely to persist for much of the week.  Could the US actually default here?  While I had not seriously considered the possibility, I have noted that this Mercury-Neptune aspect did boost the possibility of such an outcome.  A more likely outcome is some kind of confused interregnum where somehow the key players buy extra time to work out a deal.  This may or may not be before the August 2 deadline.  The planets look pretty bad over the next couple of weeks so I would not rule out any negative or disappointing scenarios.

With Mercury turning retrograde late Tuesday/early Wednesday, we could easily see more downside in stocks.   That said, there are a couple of Jupiter aspects that could give a temporary lift to sentiment.  The Sun forms a square aspect with Jupiter on Monday and into Tuesday while Venus does likewise on Thursday and into Friday. The presence of this influence offers some possibility for gains, although it is unclear to what extent the gains will apply to stocks.  Perhaps commodities like gold and oil will be more directly influenced by these bullish aspects. 

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Week of July 25 – 29

Stocks rise on Greek bailout;  US debt ceiling deal looks problematic

Stocks generally moved higher last week as the EU attempted to arrest the ongoing debt contagion by agreeing to a second Greek bailout.  In New York, the Dow was ahead by almost 2% closing at 12,681 while the S&P500 finished at 1345.  Indian markets followed suit as the BSE-Sensex moved above a key resistance level closing at 18,722 and the Nifty finished at 5633.  Not surprisingly, Monday’s Mercury-Rahu aspect turned out to be bearish across the board.  Buyers came back on Tuesday as the market reversed higher near the entry of Mercury into Leo.  This was largely in keeping with expectations as I thought the midweek would be more positive.  Sentiment continued to stay mostly strong all the way into Friday, however, as the potential trouble from the Mars-Ketu conjunction did not manifest until after markets had closed for the week, i.e. Boehner suddenly ended debt talks with Obama and the Norway attacks.

The US debt ceiling talks appear to be going right down to the wire as Republican Speaker John Boehner walked away from negotiations with President Obama late Friday.  If a deal is not reached by the August 2 deadline, the US will default on its debt since it could no longer borrow enough money to cover its expenses.  Nobody really expects this to happen, but what is unknown is the kind of deal that will be struck and who will gain political advantage.  The political posturing is likely more important here as both parties are vying to make their case for the 2012 election cycle.

Transits for Monday July 25, 2011  9.30 a.m. New York

Since neither Jupiter nor Saturn are especially dominant in the sky right now, it seems unlikely that the Republicans will get their way and force large spending cuts.  Such austerity measures are more symbolic of a strong Saturn but we don’t seem to have that here as Saturn is moving forward at its normal speed through sidereal Virgo and is not forming any significant aspects with other planets.  This suggests that either a compromise short term solution will be found or Obama’s preference for a blend of cuts and increased taxes will carry the day.  Obama’s chart looks quite stressed at the moment so it seems unlikely that he will win his version of the deal in the coming days.  Of course, the other problem with this debt ceiling deadline is that Mercury will turn retrograde on the same day.  It’s a peculiar coincidence that suggests that the deal may not be final or some of the details may be disputed after the fact by one of the parties. 

This week sees Mars enter sidereal Gemini on Monday and Tuesday.  This excess of Mars energy can be a disruptive influence which may increase the odds of declines early in the week.  But the mood is likely to turn positive by midweek as the Sun forms a alignment with Uranus and Pluto on Wednesday and Thursday.  The late week period also features a supportive configuration involving Mercury, Venus and Neptune.  So while we could see some downside in the first half of the week, the chances are fairly good that the subsequent rebound will more than make for it.

 

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Week of July 18 – 22

Stocks fall on Venus-Saturn; Sun and Mercury to change signs

Despite Ben Bernanke’s best efforts to talk up the market by keeping the door open for a possible QE3, markets drifted lower this past week as the world seems increasingly mired in debt quicksand.  The more it struggles to escape through bailouts and austerity programs, the deeper it sinks.   In New York,  the Dow tumbled lost about 2% closing at 12,479 while the S&P500 finished at 1316.  It was much the same story in Mumbai as the BSE-Sensex fell back below technical support levels closing at 18,561 with the Nifty finishing at 5581.  Amidst all this uncertainty, gold reached a new all-time high closing at $1590.

This bearish result was in keeping with expectations given the influence of aspects involving malefics Mars and Saturn.  Monday’s decline fit nicely with the Mercury-Mars aspect while Tuesday’s loss reflected the Venus-Saturn aspect with a good dose of Moon-Mars that bumped up the arrival time by a day.   The midweek rally attempt on the Moon-Venus aspect fell short, however, and weakness returned in time for Friday.

All the talk this week was about debt and how to avoid its worst consequences.  The news out of Europe suggested that current debt levels in Ireland and Italy were unsustainable as bond yields shot up to reflect the increased risk of default in these over-leveraged economies.  The bond vigilantes are back in force and they smell blood.  In the US, the debate over the debt ceiling reached a new level of urgency as there appears to be no deal on the horizon yet with the August 2 deadline fast approaching.   Both parties agree on the need for some austerity measures and significant government spending cuts, but Obama and the Democrats want to raise taxes also and thereby bridge the budget gap from both sides.  A major agreement to cut spending in the long term looks more unlikely now, as both parties may have to content themselves with a short term fix.  Whether financial markets will be satisfied with such a band-aid solution remains to be seen, although the Moody’s downgrade threat of US credit rating from AAA would suggest there could be some negative fallout.  A minor deal would likely send bond yields higher as it would increase the risk of default as well as increase future supply.   Of course, failure to make any kind of deal would trigger a US default and generate even nastier consequences in the bond market. This would likely increase volatility in the stock market with potential short term gains, closely followed by declines as investors would realize that the whole financial house of cards would be one step closer to collapse.

In astrological terms, all this talk about debt and austerity is very Saturnian.  After two years of Jupiter’s faith in a Keynesian future of borrowing and spending, the return of Saturn’s "less is more" approach has marked a discernible shift in tone.  There is a growing realization that Jupiter-driven stimulus measures cannot solve our current economic problems alone.  Saturn reminds us that sometimes the best solutions are ones where we pare back to essentials and discard what is no longer needed.  Saturn’s solutions tend to be harsh, not unlike purging the system of toxins.  Although they can be unpleasant, they can be effective in the long run.  However, Saturn is not fully in command of the sky at the moment as Jupiter still exerts some influence.  This suggests that bailouts and the Keynesian spending approach will likely retain some appeal for governments such as the EU alongside the demand for greater responsibility and austerity. 

 

Transits for Monday July 18, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York

 

The more immediate concern for the US government, however, is whether they can get a deal before the deadline.  While the planets look somewhat cooperative over the next week or two, I do note that the August 2 deadline corresponds with the beginning of the Mercury retrograde cycle.  This is not a indication of a successful action that relieves anxiety and resolves a problem.   It reminds me of the situation on November 7, 2000 when Mercury turned retrograde right on election night in the US.  That produced the famous hanging chad recount between Bush and Gore that went all the way to the Supreme Court.  The election was ultimately decided more than a month later.  What’s worse is that Mercury will be opposite Neptune at the time it turns retrograde.  Mercury-Neptune combinations speak to confusion and deception and lead to eventual disappointment. Perhaps there will be a deal but we could see some buyer’s regret once the deadline passes, as one side recognizes they’ve been had. It seems a little implausible to expect there to be no deal at all, although the difficult planets at this time do increase the odds of this scenario as well.  It seems more likely that the market will be disappointed with whatever transpires up to and including August 2.

This week is more of a mixed bag.  The early week Mercury-Rahu aspect could go either way, although it’s always hard to put much trust in Rahu.  Mercury enters Leo on Wednesday so that may suggest some upside is more likely.   The Sun’s entry into sidereal Cancer this week could signal a change in direction, especially for the gold market.  A reversal lower in gold would therefore be somewhat more likely. I will be paying close attention to the late week period as Mars approaches its conjunction with Ketu (south lunar node).  This is a potentially explosive pairing that could spark some hard selling, although the exact conjunction will only occur after the close on Friday in New York.  This may mute its effects.

 

 

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Week of July 11 – 15

Stocks rise with Jupiter again;  Venus-Saturn due this week

Stocks ended higher last week as improved corporate earnings kept the summer rally going for another week.   Despite Friday’s decline on the disappointing jobs report, the Dow added 75 points for the week closing at 12,657 while the S&P500 finished at 1343.  Indian stocks also rose as the Sensex broke above some important technical resistance and ended the week at 18,858 while the Nifty closed at 5660. 

This bullish outcome was not unexpected as I thought that Jupiter’s optimism would carry the day.  The early week gains in Mumbai coincided quite closely with Monday’s Venus and Jupiter aspects, even if they were fairly modest.  As expected, the midweek Mars-Saturn aspect tempered Jupiter’s bullishness and we saw some mild selling occur in most global markets.  Once that negative influence had passed, Jupiter took over again and stocks and commodities moved higher on Thursday’s Venus-Uranus aspect.  And as often happens, we got a reversal just as the powerful Jupiter-Pluto aspect peaked on Friday.  

Transits for Monday July 11, 2011  9.30 a.m. New York

With all of the main medium term Jupiter aspects now out of the way for a while, one wonders where stocks are headed to next.  The easy gains are likely behind us now as bulls will be harder pressed to find other sources of planetary fuel.   They may well be running on fumes for a while. And yet Saturn doesn’t appear to be offering much to the bears here either in the way of aspects, so we could see some aimless wandering for the key indexes. 

This week offers up some decent bear food in the form of Saturn’s square aspect to Venus.  This makes its tightest angle on Tuesday/Wednesday, although I would expect the Moon’s position opposite Mars on Tuesday makes that day somewhat more negative.  The early week also features a Mercury-Mars aspect that is iffy at best so it’s hard to imagine stocks making much more headway here.  There could be a bias towards caution this week that generates some selling.  Of course, we should see some up days along the way too, although they are likely to be offset by Saturn’s influence.

 

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Week of July 4 – 8

Stocks take flight on Jupiter;  New Moon/eclipse cycle to be tested again

Jumping Jupiter!  Stocks soared last week as investor confidence was restored following Greece’s approval of the EU’s austerity program.   The biggest gains were in New York as the Dow climbed 5% closing at 12,582 while the S&P500 finished at 1339.  Indian stocks also rose by almost 3% as the Sensex briefly touched 19K before settling at 18,782.  The Nifty closed above a key technical resistance level of 5600 ending the week at 5627. 

While I had expected some upside on the strong Jupiter aspects, I did not expect the move to be so forceful.  It was an impressive manifestation of Jupiter’s bullish energy as its more powerful aspects with Uranus and Pluto aligned nicely with its aspect with the faster-moving Mars.   All this Jupiter energy translated into a big relief rally as stocks bounced off their recent lows.  What was more perplexing, however, was the failure of Friday’s solar eclipse to generate any selling pressure.  Indian markets pulled back modestly on Friday, but US markets continued to run higher.  It was a sobering reminder of the limits of my astrological knowledge, and perhaps the epistemological limits of astrology itself.

While the eclipse may not have exactly coincided with a decline, it is still a phenomena worthy of our attention.  Recently, US markets have tended to make highs near the New Moon, and then fall into the period of the Full Moon.  Eclipses are a special type of New Moon where the orbits of the Moon and Earth intersect sufficiently for the Moon to cast a shadow upon the Earth.  The May 2 high occurred right on the day of the New Moon, while the lower high on June 1 also fell within one day of a New Moon and solar eclipse.  If stocks begin to fall this week in the wake of the eclipse, then the pattern will have repeated once again.  I’m not sure we have seen a high, since this New Moon cycle is only one of several that affects the markets.  But it nonetheless increases the odds somewhat that a reversal lower is imminent. 

Transits for Tuesday, July 5, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York

One reason why this New Moon/eclipse reversal may not quite fit with that pattern is that Jupiter still looks quite strong.  It will form its exact trine aspect with Pluto on Friday July 8 and then begin to weaken once again.  This suggests there will be a significant amount of bullish buying power available for this week so that may reduce the probability of an immediate post-eclipse decline. 

But astrology is nothing else if not a multi-headed hydra, and there are always other influences to consider.  Wednesday’s Mars-Saturn aspect, although technically a "minor" one, is a potential source of bearishness.  This could depress sentiment in the midweek period, especially since Monday and perhaps Tuesday appear to be fairly positive with the Mercury-Jupiter aspect.  The end of the week offers the bulls another opportunity to take the reins as Venus moves into alignment with Uranus and Jupiter.  So while those short-term aspects look mixed to positive this week, we will still have to wait and see if the New Moon cycle will assert itself once again.  I’m not holding my breath on that, but Jupiter’s bullish influence may well be fading after this week.

 

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Week of June 27 – July 1

Stocks attempt rebound; Saturnian solar eclipse due Friday

Stocks attempted to rebound from their recent lows last week as falling oil prices and the adoption of a new austerity program in Greece gave some reason to cheer.  In New York, the rebound didn’t quite take as the Dow ended slightly lower on the week closing at 11,934 while the S&P500 finished at 1268.  Indian stocks fared better, however, as the BSE-Sensex rose by 2% closing at 18,240 with the Nifty ending the week at 5471.   I had expected more weakness early in the week on the Mercury-Saturn aspect.  India caught the full force of this influence as stocks declined sharply on Monday.  World markets then reversed and we saw some gains in US markets over the next couple of days.  Interestingly, the late week bullishness I was expecting from the Sun-Jupiter combo only showed up in Mumbai as Thursday and Friday posted impressive performances as the markets there rallied off support.  US markets were a very different story, however, as growth anxiety pushed stocks back to their support levels.

All this talk of austerity and bailouts for Greece is getting a little old, and one wonders if the market may have already discounted a default.  The Euro is showing signs of more weakness here but has yet to break below 1.40.  I would have thought we might have seen more in the way of constructive policy pronouncements and subsequent cheer leading by this point as Saturn’s influence should be beginning to recede.  No such luck, although at least markets have stopped falling for the time being.  In the current environment, that is at least something.

Solar Eclipse – Friday July 1, 2011 4.38 a.m. New York

It may well be that the negative Saturn mood will come to the fore once again this week in the form of Friday’s solar eclipse.  The eclipse takes place in the early afternoon in India (before sunrise in NYC) and could correspond with another shock of volatility.  Eclipses can be destabilizing events at the best of times but this one has the added bonus of occurring in a tight square with Saturn.  That could amp up the bearish mood considerably at the end of the week.  

Before that time, there are some fairly decent aspects that could bring gains.  Mars with Jupiter on Monday, Venus with Mercury, and somewhat more precariously, Venus with Ketu on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Saturn seems reluctant to give up its recent high profile so maybe this eclipse will be its last kick at the can for a while.  Just how much damage it will do is an open question, however.

 

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Week of June 20 – 24

Stocks shaky on lunar eclipse;  Jupiter aspect may offer some relief

Fears of a possible Greek default raised volatility last week, even if the EU eventually cobbled together another bailout package to delay the inevitable collapse of that Mediterranean nation.  In New York, the Dow made new lows Wednesday but rallied by Friday closing slightly higher on the week at 12,004 while the S&P500 finished at 1271.  Indian stocks were more negative, however, as the RBI boosted interest rates again to deal with its intractable inflation problem.  The Sensex lost more than 2% closing at 17,870 while the Nifty ended the week at 5366.

As expected, last Wednesday’s lunar eclipse did shake things up as stocks and commodities like oil and gold fell sharply at midweek.  The downgrade of Greek debt, coupled with Asian central bank tightening created a pessimistic mood throughout financial markets.  While the Mercury-Jupiter aspect did deliver some rebound by Friday, this rise did not occur in Mumbai where caution over domestic inflation prevailed.  There is a growing sense that there will be no quick fixes for the world’s economic woes.  The Fed has signaled it won’t launch QE3, most likely because it’s between a rock and a hard place at the moment.  A new round of stimulus would sink the Dollar and likely boost interest rates on Treasuries as buyers of US debt would likely demand a greater risk premium.  Of course, by doing nothing, the Fed is allowing the economy to sink or swim.  But high unemployment, falling house prices, and a burgeoning government debt are all acting like very heavy millstones.

It’s all very Saturnian of course as the ringed planet infuses its distinct brand of gloom and fear into our collective psyche.   After completing its retrograde cycle last Monday, Saturn is now moving forward, albeit very slowly.  Reversals in planetary direction can often mark changes in market direction, especially when other evidence supports.  Wednesday’s eclipse could definitely qualify in that regard, although we still have one more to go on July 1. 

 

Transits for Monday June 20, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York
 

Eclipse periods tend to be more volatile than normal periods, and occur every six months lasting from between two to four weeks.  This one began on June 1 and will last until July 1.  Eclipses can coincide with reversals and declines, especially when the eclipses are afflicted by malefic planets.  Saturn is considered malefic and it likely made this recent eclipse more negative.  The upcoming solar eclipse on July 1 will also be quite Saturnian since Saturn will exactly square the Sun/Moon conjunction.  This does not necessarily mean the market will keep falling until July 1 or beyond, however,  It does mean that it increases the likelihood of more uncertainty and pessimism around that date.  Whether or not it shapes the larger trend and invites a larger reversal higher depends on other factors and their relative influences.

This week looks like a mixed bag as Mercury is squared by Saturn on Tuesday.  There is also an alignment of Sun, Mars and Neptune on Tuesday and Wednesday that could correspond to some additional anxiety.  I would therefore expect the first half of the week to be more bearish, with a chance of a nasty decline.  On the other side of the cosmic ledger, we can see that Jupiter may be increasing its profile here.  Jupiter tends to be bullish in its effects and its approaching aspect with Uranus will be highlighted by its contact with the Sun on Friday.  That should increase the odds of some kind gain towards the end of the week.  Where the market ends up overall is harder to say, although it is possible we could finish close to current levels. 

 

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Week of June 13 – 17

Stocks fall into Saturn-Pluto;  Lunar eclipse due on Wednesday

Stocks slumped again last week as the Fed Chair Ben Bernanke ruled out any additional stimulus plan (QE3?) for the foreseeable future.  In other words, the buffet is closed and there will be no more free lunch.  In New York, the Dow lost almost 2% closing at 11,951 while the S&P500 finished the week at 1270.   In keeping with recent trends, Indian stocks fared somewhat better, however, as the Sensex slipped by less than 1% closing at 18,268 while the Nifty ended the week at 5485.  While the early week period looked a little shaky with the Mercury-Saturn aspect, I thought we would have more of a bounce later on as the Jupiter-Neptune aspect tightened.  As it turned out, only Thursday got the benefit of the Jupiter bounce in the US market.  Friday’s decline corresponded fairly closely with the approaching bearish Mars-Rahu aspect.

So this is still very much a Saturnian market.  Saturn’s portfolio of pessimism, loss, and recession is very much front and centre here as fears about inflation have been pushed into the background.  This plausibly reflects the current planetary geometry quite well as inflationary and growth-oriented Jupiter lost some influence in the wake of its early May aspect with Rahu.  In its place, Saturn has strengthened as it prepares to reverse its direction and square Pluto this week.  As we know, a slow Saturn is a powerful Saturn.  And a powerful Saturn tends to focus public attention more on the intractability of the Eurozone debt crisis, the flagging US recovery, and the unsustainability of emerging market expansion in countries like India and China.

 

Lunar Eclipse  Wednesday, June 15, 2011 4.12 p.m. New York

This week could bring some important new developments that shift financial thinking in significant ways.  Saturn ends its 4-month long retrograde cycle on Sunday night and forms its tightest aspect with Pluto at that time.  This is generally a difficult combination, although Saturn’s change in direction from backwards to forwards can mark an analogous change in sentiment.  However, there are a number of difficult aspects in the mix here that suggests more downside in the near term.  Mercury conjoins Ketu on Monday while Mars forms an aspect with Mercury on Tuesday.  Of course, Wednesday has a big asterisk beside it because the lunar eclipse occurs in the afternoon before the end of the trading in the US. There is a lot of celestial traffic here and it should produce some noteworthy moves both in the markets and perhaps also on an institutional and policy level. Eclipses are all about interruption of the status quo so trend reversals are somewhat more likely at this time. The late week period features some short term Mercury aspects that seem fairly benign so perhaps that increases the likelihood of gains by Friday.

 

 

 

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Week of June 6 – 10

Stocks fall with Saturn and eclipse; Jupiter strengthens this week

US stocks staged a significant retreat last week as disappointing employment data suggested that the recovery may be in trouble.  In New York, the Dow fell by more than 2% closing at 12,151 while the S&P500 finished at 1300, just above a critical technical support level.  This bearish outcome seemed to reflect the planetary energies fairly well as the midweek Sun-Saturn aspect and solar eclipse coincided with Wednesday’s big drop.  I had been uncertain about Friday given the Neptune retrograde station but that decline was not a surprise.  Indian stocks fared better, however, as they benefited from more early week upside which US markets missed due to the Memorial Day holiday.  Despite two losing sessions at the end of the week,  the Sensex rose by almost 1% to 18,376 with the Nifty settling at 5516.

The glass is looking half empty here as concerns grow that all the stimulus measures from the US Federal Reserve over the past two years are no longer working as advertised.  But if QE1 and QE2 aren’t enough, then surely this makes another round of stimulus more likely in the form of QE3?   Well, one should never discount a government’s desire to print more money to get out of jam, but there may be less tolerance for such a move now. 

 

Transits for Monday, June 6, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York
 

It turns out that all that "free" money really isn’t free at all and comes with a price. The US debt has ballooned to $14 trillion and counting, the Dollar has plunged, and commodities like oil and gold have risen sharply. This has created an inflationary environment all around the world which has wreaked havoc in many emerging markets. It now also threatens to overtake the US economy as the implications of Bernanke’s currency devaluation scheme are becoming more apparent.  There is more talk that the US is running out of policy options and may simply have to face the music, even if it means rising unemployment, more falling house prices, and little or no growth for the near term.  All this negativity is very much in keeping with strengthening Saturn as debt, recession and economic pessimism now predominate the discussion.  I tend to think that Saturn could well remain in control up until the conclusion of its retrograde cycle on June 13 when it forms a square aspect with Pluto.

For all the gloomy Saturn influence, we could see more Jupiter this week as it forms an aspect with Neptune.  While Neptune does have a bearish side, its aspects with Jupiter tend to be more bullish.  Upside is perhaps even more likely in the second half of the week as Venus joins the alignment.  Ahead of that time, however, Saturn will again be front and centre as its aspect with Mercury on Tuesday could indicate shakier markets in the early part of the week.

 

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Week of May 30 – June 3

Stocks slip on Mars-Saturn; Neptune turns retrograde on Friday

Stocks edged lower last week as uncertainty over the strength of global recovery continued to weigh on sentiment. In New York, the Dow rebounded at the end of the week but still closed slightly lower at 12,441 with the S&P500 finishing at 1331.   Indian stocks followed a similar script as a late week rally wasn’t enough to erase previous losses.   The BSE-Sensex closed a little lower at 18,266 with the Nifty ending the week at 5476.   As expected, we did see declines coincide with the alignment of Mercury, Venus, Mars and Saturn in the first half of the week.  Monday’s decline was larger as Venus conjoined Mars while in difficult aspect with bearish Saturn.  However, I thought we might have had a little more downside on Wednesday’s exact Mars-Saturn aspect.  As it happened, Indian stocks were lower on Wednesday but the mood changed by the time US markets opened as New York reversed and began to rally off its lows. 

Some disappointing US economic data last week saw a broad-based selloff in the Dollar as investors priced in another delay in an interest rate hike, perhaps to 2012.  There is increasing chatter among commentators that further weakness in the US will force Bernanke to cobble together yet another stimulus package to keep the sinking ship that is the US economy afloat for another few months.  As QE2 winds down at the end of June, rumours of QE3 may become a more important factor in the market dynamic in the weeks and months ahead.  As a rule, such stimulus programs are associated with expansionary Jupiter since they aim to boost demand and invigorate economic activity.  With Jupiter still taking a backseat to Saturn these days, it seems somewhat unlikely that any hint or formal announcement of QE3 will be immediately forthcoming.  Saturn is moving very slowly ahead of its direct station on June 13, so the main focus is likely to remain on Saturn-type issues such as debt, slowdown and general pessimism.  After that time, we may see more Jupiterian energy prevail as Jupiter forms a succession of putatively bullish aspects with Neptune, Uranus and Pluto in June and July before it makes its retrograde station at the end of August. This latter time frame is therefore a more likely window when we could see the announcement of some kind of additional Fed stimulus.

Transits for Tuesday May 31, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York
 

This week we may see a bit of everything.  The early week again seems bearish as Monday’s Mercury-Rahu aspect is quickly followed by a Sun-Saturn pattern on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Wednesday is also noteworthy because there will be a solar eclipse at 17 degrees of sidereal Taurus on that day.  This is likely to reflect an increase in caution in many markets including stocks and commodities. A minor contact between Mercury and Jupiter on Thursday offers some hope for a rebound, however.  Friday may be the most interesting and unpredictable day of all.  That is the day that Neptune turns retrograde.  What’s interesting about this retrograde station is that it will occur while in a tense square aspect with Mercury. This is normally a bearish combination.  The complicating factor is that Neptune is sitting very close to its aspect with bullish Jupiter.  For this reason, the retrograde station could end up being a positive influence, even with the dubious input from Mercury.  While the final outcome is somewhat uncertain, it does suggest that a larger than normal price move is more likely on Friday.

 

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Week of May 23 – 27

Stocks slip on Mercury-Mars; Saturn poised to strengthen this week

Stocks trended lower last week as renewed worries over Greece offset positive earnings reports.  In New York, the Dow fell less than 1% closing at 12,512 while the S&P500 ended the week at 1333.  It was much the same story in Mumbai as the Sensex lost 200 points closing at 18,326 with the Nifty finishing the week at 5486.  I thought we might have seen more early week upside on the Sun-Jupiter and Mercury-Venus-Neptune alignments but it seems that the market is still working through the after effects of that Jupiter-Rahu aspect from early May.  In addition, a shadow Saturn aspect to this alignment generated more caution than I had anticipated.  We finally got a reversal higher midweek as Mercury and Venus teamed up with Uranus.   As expected, Friday’s Mercury-Mars conjunction was bearish, although this only manifested later in the day in Europe and the US, after Indian markets had closed. 

Not surprisingly, we saw more developments in the Eurozone debt problem as Fitch downgraded Greece’s debt another two notches while Germany showed greater reluctance to cut blank cheques for their spendthrift southerly neighbours.  This appears to be conforming to the strengthening of Saturn here as the focus shifts from speculation and inflation (Jupiter-Rahu) to debt and recession (Saturn).   Saturn symbolizes caution and pessimism so it tends to be associated with economic contraction and declining prices.  In that sense, it is the necessary antidote to inflation.  In other words, Saturn is deflationary in its effects.  When Saturn is strong and afflicted, prices tend to fall.  Saturn tends to strengthen around close aspects with other planets and when its velocity is reduced near its stations.   Saturn is due to station next on June 13 when it ends its retrograde cycle and return to its normal forward motion.  At that time, it will form a fairly close square aspect with Pluto.  So on that basis, it is tempting to think that the markets will stay weak until that time. 

 

Transits for Monday May 23 2011 9.30 a.m. New York

This week will be an important test of this approaching Saturn energy.  Early in the week, there will be a triple conjunction of Mercury, Venus and Mars. Mars is a potential troublemaker here so that may increase in the chances of lower prices.  But Saturn will also form a close 150 degree aspect to this triumvirate so is another potentially bearish influence.  If we do get a decline into midweek, then that will provide additional evidence that Saturn is strengthening and would boost the odds for a larger correction that lasts into that mid-June station. 

 

 

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Week of May 16 – 20

Stocks end flat in wake of Jupiter-Rahu; Sun-Jupiter offers hope early

Stocks were mostly unchanged last week as renewed concerns over Greece were offset by improving economic data.  In New York, the Dow edged lower closing at 12,595 while the S&P500 finished the week at 1337.  Mumbai was similarly indecisive as the Sensex ended pretty close to where it started at 18,531 and the Nifty following suit at 5544.   While it wasn’t very exciting, the end result was not hugely unexpected.  I was not wrong in thinking there could be more upside leading into Wednesday’s triple conjunction of Mercury, Venus and Jupiter.  Most global markets rose in the first half of the week as the positive influence from these planets overshadowed any potential bearishness from the aspect with Rahu.  Significantly, this affected most asset classes including oil, gold and silver as commodities also rallied back from the previous week’s sell-off.   Indian markets did not participate in the early week rise perhaps because of the more negative implications of rising oil prices. As expected, stocks and commodities were mostly bearish in the aftermath of the triple conjunction as the US Dollar gained more ground.

Transits for Monday May 16, 2011  9.30 a.m. New York
 

Now that the Jupiter-Rahu aspect is behind us, we may well wonder what lies ahead.  This aspect has highlighted the dangers of excessive speculation and we have seen commodities decline sharply in recent weeks.  Its growing separation suggests that the unwinding of the "risk trade" out of commodities may become less important here.  While the gradual reduction in the negative Rahu influence may free up Jupiter to become more optimistic and bullish, we should also be watching for the possible increase in Saturn’s influence.  Saturn will end its retrograde cycle on June 13 as it returns to normal forward motion in the sky.  At this time, Saturn will also form a fairly close square aspect with Pluto.  Saturn-Pluto aspects are often negative in their effects as pessimism over economic growth prospects can take over.  Saturn also represents debts and losses so it is possible that the problem of indebtedness may become more pronounced.  Worries over Greece and the Eurozone have re-surfaced in the past week and this may well foreshadow more concerns in the weeks ahead.

This week actually features some positive aspects, especially in the early part of the week.  Monday’s Sun-Jupiter aspect is complemented by a very nice Mercury-Venus-Neptune aspect which should increase the likelihood of gains in the first half of the week.  Wednesday’s Mercury-Venus-Uranus alignment should add another layer of optimism to the proceedings.  Of course, the market could still decline in spite of these bullish short term aspects as we are in the shadowy, leeward side of the Jupiter-Rahu aspect.  Nonetheless, declines may be further delayed until the short term picture becomes more difficult.  The end of the week is perhaps a better example of this tense energy as Mercury catches up with Mars while in aspect to Pluto. 

 

 

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Week of May 9 – 13

Stocks fall amidst commodity selloff; triple conjunction this week

Financial markets went into spasm last week as the speculative commodities trade came to a crashing halt.   The Humpty-Dumpty world of gold, silver and crude oil all came tumbling back down to earth with a thud against a backdrop of central bank tightening in Asia, a dollar recovery in the US and the possibility of Greece leaving the Eurozone, not to mention the US assassination of Osama Bin Laden.   Stocks did not escape the turmoil as equities succumbed to inflation fears and poorer than expected US economic data.  In New York, the Dow closed down more than 1% at 12,638 while the S&P500 ended the week at 1340.   Indian stocks also declined by more than 3% as the Sensex closed at 18,518 and the Nifty finished at 5551.

All this turbulence appears to be an adequate reflection of the slow-moving Jupiter-Rahu aspect which finally comes exact on May 7.  As I have noted over the past several weeks, the approach of the Jupiter-Rahu aspect has the potential to disrupt the financial landscape in fundamental ways.  Specifically, the focus of this aspect centered around notions of speculation and growth expectations.  Jupiter symbolizes growth and optimism but Rahu often creates a distorting or unsustainable greed effect so it is quite fitting that this speculative froth would have be taken out of the market at this time.  Silver has fallen 30% in the span of a single week while crude oil has declined by 10%.   It is possible that we could be at the beginning of a major sea change in assumptions as the long-struggling US Dollar may have turned the corner now as it rose 2% for the week.  Once the Dollar gets back on its feet, it will likely fuel further exiting of the "risk trade" in commodities and likely in stocks as well. 

Transits for triple conjunction  — Wednesday May 11 2011

Another reason why we could be witnessing a shift in the prevailing trends is that Saturn is now backing up into a square aspect with Pluto.  The aspect will still be four degrees away from exact so it may not be as powerful as it might be, but it could well provide another source of Saturnian caution for the market in the weeks ahead.  Once Saturn returns to direct motion on June 13, this aspect will begin to separate and eventually weaken.

Since Jupiter makes its exact with Rahu this week, it would be tempting to think that it’s all downhill from here.  It very well could be, although there may be sources of bullish sentiment in the mix also.  Of critical importance will be the triple conjunction of Mercury, Venus and Jupiter on Wednesday May 11.  These are three normally bullish planets that should generate some buying in and around their exact alignment.  As a general rule of thumb, sentiment usually rises before the aspect is exact.  The complicating factor here is that this bullish triple conjunction will occur under the shadowy aspect of Rahu.  That may increase the likelihood of a quick reversal lower at any point in the proceedings and could seriously undermine rally attempts.  In any event, it promises to be an active and interesting week.

 

 

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Week of May 2 – 6

US stocks gain on Jupiter-Rahu inflation play;  Mars is stronger this week  

US Stocks rose last week as investors cheered Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s restated commitment to the zero interest rate policy for the foreseeable future.   In New York, the Dow gained more than 2%
closing at 12,810 while the S&P500 finished at 1363.  Bernanke’s comments also prompted gains in inflation hedges as such gold, silver and oil.  It was a different story in India’s already inflation-ravaged economy as the Sensex lost more than 2% closing at 19,135 while the Nifty ended the week at 5749.

As expected, we did see some decline on Monday’s Mercury-Saturn opposition aspect.  The US market rebounded after that as the bullish Sun-Venus-Pluto pattern coincided with gains that lasted for the rest of the week.   The gains were largely a response to the pro-inflationary stance of the Fed, as most asset classes gained ground against a falling dollar.  The Indian market fared less well, however, since the Fed policy would likely increase inflationary pressures that are already threatening the domestic economy.  Interestingly, Friday’s gains in crude and gold coincided with the Moon’s entry into sidereal Pisces.  I suggested last week that this transit might well coincide with gains in crude as it would enhance the strength of the five planets (Uranus, Mars, Mercury, Venus, Jupiter) that already occupy this constellation.

 

Transits for Monday May 2, 2011  9.30 a.m. New York
 

The recent gains in most asset classes is very much in keeping with the speculative nature of the approaching Jupiter-Rahu aspect. Jupiter’s tendency towards expansion and growth is exaggerated by Rahu’s penchant for distortion and disruption.  The combination of these influences can result in greed and speculative excess that are commonly found in bubbles and manias.  It is therefore no surprise that we see gold reaching new all-time highs every week and silver going parabolic. One of the features of Rahu, however, is that while it can generate gains, these are often unsustainable in the long term.  Once the Jupiter-Rahu aspect begins to separate on May 7 (or May 13 depending on which measurement of Rahu/NN one uses), we will need to watch for signs of a trend reversal.   There is an increased likelihood that this aspect may bring about changes in the financial landscape.  Nothing is guaranteed obviously, but it is a combination that has the power to change the status quo.

This week begins with a potentially tricky aspect between Mars and Rahu.  Since Mars is also entering sidereal Aries on Tuesday, this could increase the probability of some downside in the early week.  This may be strong enough to manifest in most markets.  But we could see a return to the pro-inflation bullishness after that, as the approaching conjunction between Venus and Mercury is likely to bring some gains into midweek, and perhaps later. Friday looks somewhat less positive, however, as the Moon conjoins Ketu/SN.

 

 

Transits for Monday May 2, 2011  9.30 a.m. New York
 

Transits for Monday April 18, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York

Transits for Monday April 4, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York

 

Transits for Monday, March 28, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York

 

Transits for Monday March 14, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York
 

Transits for Monday, March 7, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York
 

 

Transits for Monday February 28, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York
 

Transits for Tuesday, February 22, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York
 

 

Transits for Monday, January 31, 2011  9.30 a.m. New York

 

 

Transits for Tuesday, January 18, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York

 

Transits for Monday, January 10, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York
 

Transits for Monday, January 3, 2011 9.30 a.m. New York
 

 

Transits for Monday, December 27, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

 

 

 

Transits for Monday December 6, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

Transits for Monday November 29, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

 

Transits for Monday, November 8, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

 

 

Transits for Monday, October 4, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

 
 

Transits for Monday, September 13, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

Transits for Tuesday, September 7, 2010  9.30 a.m. New York

 

 

Week of August 30 – September 3

Stocks fall on Mercury retrograde; Venus enters Libra as Sun meets Mercury

Financial markets continued to look shaky last week as poor US housing data provided more evidence that the recovery may have stalled.  Despite Friday’s post-Bernanke rally, the Dow nonetheless closed down for the week at 10,150 while the S&P500 finished at 1064.  Indian markets finally broke their winning streak and moved lower by more than 2% as the Sensex ended Friday’s session at 17,998 with the Nifty closing at 5408.  This latest weakness in the markets was perhaps a reflection of the Mercury retrograde cycle that began on August 20.  Last week, I suggested that Mercury retrograde periods can be an added burden on sentiment which is often incompatible with higher prices.  In addition, there were several difficult planetary combinations that would tend increase anxiety and take stocks lower.  Interestingly, I had specified Thursday as a possible down day since there were two pairings that did not look favourable that day — Mercury-Mars and Sun-Saturn. Thursday was lower in Europe and the US but India actually put in a positive performance.  This is a reminder that there is always a margin of error in astrology, especially when dealing with global markets separated by many time zones.  Sure enough, the Indian market then experienced a stronger selloff one day later on Friday while the US market  rebounded after Bernanke’s 10 a.m. promise to prevent deflation by any means necessary. 

Like most complex knowledge systems, one of astrology’s greatest challenges lies in trying to combine a high number of variables into one coherent picture.   Nine planets, twelve signs, a dozen different aspects, 27 nakshatras, and so on — that makes for millions of potential outcomes.  And to make matters that much more intricate, there is comparatively little empirical evidence for the likely effects of each of these factors, much less what may happen when they occur simultaneously.  This means a lot of astrological forecasting has to rely on deductive thinking from untested assumptions and theories about the potential effects of various planets and their interactions.  Given this epistemological minefield, probabilistic thinking is a best case scenario and even that limited approach may come up short more often than we would care to admit. 

Transits for Monday, August 30, 2010  9.30 a.m. New York
 

The current situation is perhaps typical of many planetary setups that can best be described as "mixed".  On one hand, the Mercury retrograde period extends to September 12 and may correlate with negative sentiment and repeating what has already been encountered i.e. retracing previous trends whether up or down, but often down.  But Jupiter is fast approaching its conjunction with Uranus (exact September 18) and these two planets ought to increase risk taking and optimism for investment.  Perhaps the result may be short term moves in both directions that ends in a sideways market. 

This week we will get the effects of the second week of Mercury retrograde while Venus enters sidereal Libra on Wednesday.  Venus tends to do better in the sign of Libra so we may see a greater focus on spending and the enjoyment of money.  From a purely deductive perspective, this should be seen a positive factor for stocks, although it is only one out of many factors.   By Friday, the Sun will conjoin Mercury while in close aspect with shadowy Rahu. This is an unusual combination of planets that suggests greater uncertainty and increases the potential for major moves. Rahu (North Lunar Node) is considered a malefic planet by nature, although it can sometimes  have the opposite effect when circumstances support it.    Given the close proximity of Mars to Venus, and the various Saturn aspects that are still in play, we may not have enough favourable energies to entice a positive result from Rahu.  We shall see.

"It is vain to do with more what can be done with fewer."  — William of Occam

Transits for Monday, August 23, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

Transits for Monday, August 16, 2010  9.30 a.m. New York

 

Transits for Monday, August 9, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

Transits for Monday, August 2, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

 

 

 

Transits for Monday, July 26, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

 

 

Transits for July 12, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

Transits for Tuesday, July, 6 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

 

Transits for June 28, 2010 9.30 a.m. EDT New York

Transits for Monday, June 21, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

Transits for Monday, June 14, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

 

Transits for Monday June 7, 2010 9.30 a.m.  New York
 

Transits for Tuesday, June 1, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

 

Transits for Monday, May 24, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

 

Transits for Monday, May 17, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

 

Transits for Monday, May 10, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

 

 

Transits for Monday, May 3, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

 

Transits for Monday, April 26, 2010 9.30 a.m New York
 

Transits for Monday, April 19, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

 
 

Transits for April 12, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

 
 

Transits for April 5, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

 

Transits for Monday March 29, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

 

Transits for March 22, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

Transits for Monday March 15, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

Week of March 8 – 12

Venus opposes Saturn; Mars turns direct

Stocks jumped higher last week as positive US employment numbers convinced more investors that the recovery could actually be real.  Stocks in New York were 3% higher with the Dow closing at 10,566 and the S&P at 1138.  It was much the same story in Mumbai as Sensex added 3% to close at 16,994 while the Nifty finished at 5088 as investors basked in the afterglow of the union budget.   This bullish outcome was largely in keeping with expections as the midweek Venus-Uranus conjunction kept the bears at bay and fueled enough optimism to take prices to within a few percent of their January highs. 

Interestingly, once Venus began separating from Uranus, the post-budget rally in Mumbai stalled while New York enjoyed more gains on Friday.  As always, transit influences form a foundation from which the relevant natal charts pick and choose to resonate different energies.  Last week I wondered if the recent rally might stumble as Venus left the friendly confines of sidereal Aquarius and the clustering of benefic planets there.  The jury is still out on that hypothesis, although the strong showing of US and European markets on Friday would suggest that the Aquarian bulls are doing just fine, thank you, even without Venus.  New York continued to rise despite the departure of Venus, probably due to  favourable midpoint activation among the stellium of Mercury, Jupiter, Sun and Uranus.

Transits for Monday, March 8 , 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

There is a genuine chance for a shake up this week as Venus (7 Pisces) moves into opposition aspect with Saturn (7 Virgo) early in the week.  Given Saturn’s well deserved reputation for all things gloomy, this is not a positive influence and the proximity of Mars (6 Cancer) by degree to both planets has the potential to seriously interrupt the prevailing mood.   To make things more interesting, Mars ends its retrograde cycle and turns direct on Wednesday.  This will inject an additional layer of Martian energy into the mix and could exaggerate moves in either direction.  However, the fact that Mars is, by nature, a malefic planet tips the probabilities towards the bears here.  At the same time, the clustering of planets in the second half of Aquarius is still a potential source of optimism here so some up days are still likely, especially later in the week as Mercury approaches the Sun.

Transits for March 1, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York

 

 

Transits for Monday, Feburary 22 9.30 a.m. New York

Transits for Tuesday, February 16, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

 

Transits for Monday February 8, 2010 9.30 a.m New York

 

 

 

 

Transits for January 25, 2010 9.30 a.m. EST New York

 

Transits for January 18, 2010 9.30 a.m. EST New York

Transits for Monday January 11, 2010 9.30 a.m. New York
 

 

Transits for January 4, 2010 9.30 a.m. EST New York
 

 

Transits for Monday, December 21, 2009 9.30 a.m. New York
 

Transits for December 14, 2009 9.30 a.m. New York
 

Gold plunges on Dollar strength ahead of Mercury-Pluto conjunction

The US Dollar showed signs of life late last week as a better than expected jobs report created increased the likelihood of higher interest rate hike.  Stocks were generally higher with the Dow trading near 10,500 on several occasions before closing at 10,388 with the S&P at 1105.  In Mumbai, positive growth numbers from September lifted shares almost 3% for the week with the Sensex finishing at 17,101 and the Nifty at 5108.  While I had been more bearish, the market did generally follow expectations as most of the gains came early in the week on the Mercury aspects to Uranus and Neptune with declines occurring later as the harmonic aspect between Mars and Saturn tightened and Venus came under Saturn’s sextile aspect. The most interesting day was Friday as the jobs report brightened the outlook for the Dollar.  While stocks were up sharply at the open, profit taking took over and markets slumped after that.  This was the first hint perhaps that more good economic news may longer be good for the markets since it risks ending Bernanke’s low interest rate regime and the cheap dollar and the resulting carry trade that has fueled the bubble of 2009.  After making a high of $1227 on Thursday, Gold plunged over 5% on the renewed enthusiasm for the Dollar. 

Transits for December 7, 2009 9.30 a.m. New York

This week looks more clearly negative, at least in terms of fast moving transits, as two transits will dominate the sky.  First, Monday’s Mercury-Pluto conjunction may trigger a lot of pessimism due to its 90 degree aspect with Saturn.  It’s possible that the bearishness may spill into Tuesday since Mercury will still be close enough.  The Moon transits Leo early on the week and that may not help matters any since it will be hemmed in between malefics Mars and Saturn.  Wednesday’s Virgo Moon applies to Saturn is another source of worry since it will again release that problematic Saturn-Pluto energy.  The second pattern of significance will be more prominent later in the week as the Sun will form an exact 120 degree aspect with Mars on Thursday.  While both planets are natural malefics, it’s not clear if this will generate negative market sentiment.  It seems there will be enough malefic energy to generate one down day at the end of the week, but we should expect a bounce day here also.

As optimistic Jupiter slowly makes it way towards idealistic Neptune and their conjunction on December 21, it seems likely that we will see another manifestation of this hopeful planetary combination.  Off the top, we can see that the Copenhagen climate conference from Dec 7-18 is an embodiment of this idealism and hopefulness as world leaders will once again come together with the best intentions and grapple with this seemingly intractable policy problem. It remains to be seen, however, if anything of substance can be achieved from this meeting.   In market terms, the huge bubblicious rally that began back in March can be understood in terms of the initial conjunction between Jupiter and Neptune.  Due to retrograde motion, these two planets have been in fairly close proximity with each other for the past eight months. Previously, this optimism manifested as hope for an economic recovery which, in turn, sparked a rally in stocks as investors looked forward to improved corporate earnings.  While it is very possible that the December 21 conjunction could coincide with another move higher, there is another plausible interpretation.  This time hope for economic recovery may only translate into a higher Dollar since continued good news will boost the greenback.  This is exactly what happened on Friday as the Dollar soared against most other world currencies on good employment numbers which increased the likelihood for a rate hike sooner rather than later.  But what’s good for the Dollar may be bad for stocks because much of the recent rally is rooted in the dollar carry trade.    If the dollar continues to appreciate on hopes for a recovery, the carry trade will unwind and this will generate a mass exit from equities.  Needless to say, gold is also extremely vulnerable here as the Dollar gets its mojo back.  

Markets shudder on Dubai fears

Stocks ended down last week as worries over the Dubai debt crisis brought back uncomfortable memories of the meltdown of 2008.   After moving higher in the early going New York was mostly unchanged as the Dow closed Friday at 10,309 and the S&P at 1087.  Mumbai was lower by 2% as the Sensex ended the week at 16,632 and the Nifty at 4941.  I had been more bullish on the Venus influence here and, indeed, the market was generally higher through Wednesday, especially in the US.  I was correct in expecting gains Monday in the US on the Moon-Venus-Jupiter aspect, and the market even backed off on cue in the afternoon as the aspect separated.  Tuesday did see some of the predicted selling in the morning come to pass on the bearish Sun-Saturn aspect, although I thought the decline might have lasted more into the close.  Instead buyers moved back in and bid up prices in the afternoon.  Wednesday also went more or less according to plan as stocks rose modestly on the Venus-Uranus-Neptune influence.  However, I missed the extent and precise timing of the late week Dubai decline.  While I correctly expected Friday to be down on Venus’ ingress into Scorpio and the Moon-Saturn-Pluto pattern, the Dubai news broke Thursday.  One possible explanation here is that Thursday’s Mercury-Mars "trine" (120 degree) aspect also played a key role in changing sentiment.  Although the trine is often thought of as a positive aspect, Mars may have been particularly damaging in this instance since it was 1) debilitated in sidereal Cancer and 2) moving more slowly than usual ahead of its retrograde station in mid-December.  Given the plausible role of a Mars aspect in this unfolding of the Dubai crisis, this may be a clue that the upcoming Mars retrograde cycle may not be kind to markets.

Transits for November 30, 2009  9.30 a.m. New York
 

The main question on investors’ minds this week concerns whether the Dubai problem can be contained or whether it will spread like a contagion and expose other areas of financial instability in the global economic system.  The planets this week point to the latter scenario as the tense aspects appear to have the upper hand in the near future.  Monday could be fairly mixed as we see both negative and positive aspects at work simultaneously.  Moon transits Aries in square aspect with Mars but Mercury forms a nice angle with Uranus.  The negative may carry the day here, especially in the US, but stocks should move higher going into midweek as the Moon is exalted in Taurus opposite Venus.  But even if we see a day or two of gains, I think the overall bias seems negative, with the possibility of a big down day at some point.  Mars’ minor aspect with Saturn is exact on Friday so that identifies the late week as a potential danger zone. 

The potential Dubai default has emerged here as a reasonable catalyst for a significant market correction.  Certainly, the planets over the next few weeks would support some kind of pullback.   The upcoming Mars retrograde cycle occurs during a tight Saturn-Pluto aspect and even aspects it quite closely if minor aspects and divisional charts are used.   This are a very bearish confluence of measurements.  At the same time, we still have to try to make sense of the conjunction between Jupiter (growth, wealth) and Neptune (hope, illusion) conjunction that is exact on December 21.  This planetary combination of "growth" and "hope" is often correlated with gains and rallies as indeed we saw the rally in spring 2009 largely coinciding with this conjunction.   One possible interpretation is that the Jupiter-Neptune rally will occur but it will be squeezed into a relatively short time span in mid-December.  It may still be fairly strong in terms of amplitude but its overall effects may be mitigated by losses that occur before and after.  Just how this source of positive energy manifests will be an important question in the days ahead.  It’s conceivable that it won’t be enough to move markets very much at all.  Instead it may only reflect the role of inflationary (Jupiter+Neptune) spending from huge deficits in the current economic circumstance.  We will have to watch this aspect closely as it moves into position in the coming days.

Venus influence abounds

After another strong Monday that pushed the market to new highs, enthusiasm for stocks in New York faded last week as the indexes ended mostly flat. President Obama’s midweek comment on the possibility of a double dip recession appeared to tipped the scales in favour of the bears as the Dow closed at 10,318 while the S&P finished at 1091.  Indian stocks fared a little better as Friday’s late day rally came on reassurances that the government would not tax foreign investment capital.  The Nifty gained 1% on the week to close at 5052 while the Sensex stood at 17,021.  Tuesday’s Mercury-Saturn-Pluto alignment turned out to be a non-event as stocks showed only mild intraday weakness.  This outcome gave some support to the idea that not all aspects are created equal.  Last week I had wondered if the third house, sextile aspect was less malefic than the conjunction or square.   In the current circumstance, this relatively benign result supported that view, my own bearish forecast notwithstanding.  Empirical reality can be a cruel teacher.  The second main aspect for the week was the Venus-Mars square which arguably created more problems.  With Mars in debilitation in sidereal Cancer, even a strong Venus in Libra was put under significant stress by this aspect which coincided with modest selling in global markets Wednesday and Thursday.  Even there, one could argue that the Thursday’s decline was not the result of the Venus-Mars square but rather the Moon-Pluto-Saturn alignment.  As I noted last week, this was the same pattern that sent stocks lower on the previous Thursday also.  With declines coming on consecutive Moon-Saturn-Pluto patterns, we have a better sense of what kind of reservoir of bearish sentiment may be contained within the Saturn-Pluto combination.  I believe we have only begun to tap into the possibilities in this malefic aspect.

Transits for November 23, 2009 9.30 a.m. EST New York

With holiday-shortened week due to US Thanksgiving, markets are usually fairly quiet and show a bullish bias.  This is likely to be the case also this year as benefic Venus will make its presence felt through several aspects.  Monday features a Moon-Venus-Jupiter pattern that ought to encourage optimism, at least at the outset.  Once the aspect is exact around midday, there could be some erosion of confidence.  At the same time, the Sun will come under Saturn’s aspect Monday and especially Tuesday, so that is a potentially bearish influence.  There ought to be enough negative planetary energy there to generate several hours of selling which ought to be good for one down day.  Wednesday appears to be a return to the happy influence of Venus as it forms close aspects to both Uranus and Neptune.  This could well carry over into Thursday in many global markets.  Friday could signal a change in the mood as Venus enters sidereal Scorpio and will therefore weaken somewhat.  The Moon will oppose Saturn and may bring out the bleakness of Saturn-Pluto once again.  Friday may be worse in Asian markets since the Moon-Saturn angle will be that much closer. 

In the wake of Obama’s trip to China, there is increasing concern to do something about the falling US dollar.  China has invested heavily in US treasuries and they can’t be too pleased with their tumbling value.  Chinese banking officials are now openly complaining about the loose US monetary policy that lies behind the dollar’s ongoing weakness.   The Fed’s near-zero interest rate policy has produced a new speculative bubble in equities and commodities may lead to another crash in the near future.  While a crash may be overstating things,  markets are certainly vulnerable to substantial correction in this upcoming period of the Saturn-Pluto square and the beginning of the Mars and Saturn retrograde cycles over the next two months.    

Stocks bubbled higher last week as the US Dollar continued to teeter on the edge of oblivion at its key support level of USDX75.  The Dow pushed to new highs midweek before closing at 10,270 while the S&P matched its October highs and finished at 1093 (beware the double top).  In Mumbai, the indices shook off the recent correction as the Sensex climbed 4% to close at 16,848 and the Nifty finished at 4998.  So the midweek Mercury-Uranus-Ketu pattern was mostly bullish, no doubt aided by the simultaneous Sun-Jupiter aspect. It’s noteworthy that the high point for the week coincided with those two aspects after which there was a slight retreat.  Thursday was an important statement of the bearish potential of the Saturn-Pluto aspect as the Moon acted as trigger during its tight conjunction with Saturn in sidereal Virgo.  The release of this Saturn-Pluto energy pushed global markets down across the board.  As precise as the timing of this aspect was, it’s worth noting that the Moon is the fastest moving planet in the astrological pantheon and therefore is a fairly weak trigger.  Usually, planetary power is inversely related with velocity: the slower the planet, the greater the capacity to manifest in human sentiment and action.  If the market dropped 1% with the fast-moving Moon, I wonder how much it could drop with a slower moving body like the Sun, Mercury or Mars, to say nothing of Uranus, Rahu or Ketu?

Planetary positions for Monday, November 16 at 9.30 a.m New York
 

This week may provide some useful data that may answer that question as Mercury falls under the full strength sextile (60 degree) aspect of pessimistic Saturn.  Mercury represents the mind and intellect so the Saturn influence here may bring mental labour, intense thinking, fear, and depression.  This planetary combination is bearish enough, but the fact that Saturn is in a close square aspect with cold, cruel Pluto increases the potential for a significant move.  The three-planet alignment makes its closest angle on Tuesday.  One possible saving grace is that the sextile is probably not as strong as the conjunction or square so its damage may be mitigated somewhat.  Nonetheless, this is still a dangerous combination. 

On Wednesday and Thursday, Mars forms an exact square aspect with Venus.  Since Mars is debilitated here in sidereal Cancer, it has considerable potential to do harm.  Readers may recall the damage Mars did through its square aspect with the Sun back in late October.  The market dropped about 5% in a three-day pullback.  While there is some bearish potential here, it’s important to note the differences.  The Sun was also debilitated in Libra at the time, so that may have increased the bearish potential of the aspect.  By contrast, Venus here is in its own sign (Libra) and hence much stronger.  As a result it may be able to better withstand Mars’ unwelcome overtures.  We should also note that this Thursday will see an echo of last Thursday’s bearish pattern as the Moon may once again activate the Saturn-Pluto square.  The Moon will conjoin Pluto at 8 Sagittarius (Lahiri) during the afternoon in New York.  History needn’t repeat exactly since the Moon will be conjoining Pluto instead of Saturn, but it will nonetheless bear watching.
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Markets rise on Sun-Mercury conjunction; Mercury-Uranus-Ketu this week

Stocks bounced back last week on some less-than-awful US employment data and more cheap money happy talk from Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.  In New York, the Dow climbed 3% to 10,023 while the S&P finished at 1069.  In Mumbai, equities rallied back after Tuesday’s thumping as the Nifty ended Friday at 4796 and the Sensex at 16,158.  The midweek conjunction of Sun and Mercury delivered higher prices as expected, although the early and late week downside did not quite deliver the goods.  While New York was quite solid in the early going, Mumbai was down Tuesday on the Aries Moon and Mercury-Mars square, probably because of Mars afflictions to key placements in the NSE natal chart.   Despite a minor Mercury-Saturn aspect, Friday saw the bulls once again carry the day.  All in all, it was a victory for the bullish short term aspects over more challenging and shadowy medium term influences.  In other words, another edifying lesson in empiricism.
 

Transits for November 9, 2009 9.30 a.m. EST New York

This week could make or break the correction as the Mercury-Uranus-Ketu grand trine configuration takes root around midweek.  Both Uranus and Ketu are planets that symbolize change and sudden events and their close aspect here would seem to incline towards new and unforeseen developments.  As a fast moving planet, Mercury may be able to act as a trigger to release whatever surprises Uranus and Ketu have in store.  By itself, the Mercury-Uranus combination is often bullish, and all the more so given Neptune’s additional harmonic influence there.  But Ketu changes things up considerably, and it’s unclear if stocks can handle so much uncertainty and suddenness.  The background influence of the Saturn-Pluto square should also be seen as a negative factor, although it’s precise due date is still up in the air.  Venus forms an alignment with Saturn and Pluto before trading on Monday, so that could generate some fear and disappointment.  However, this aspect clears out fairly quickly so it’s conceivable that Monday may not be too bad.  Tuesday features the Sun-Jupiter square, a classic symbol of unfounded optimism and excessive expectations.  The market could rally briefly but it’s perhaps more prone to quick pullbacks once it separates.   Thursday will be an interesting measure of the Saturn-Pluto square as the Moon will conjoin Saturn in sidereal Virgo before the close in New York.   This combination of energies represents solitude and isolation so it may be more difficult for investors to feel comfortable with their positions.  In addition, I think the hardship symbolized by the Saturn-Pluto aspect may correspond with a rebound in the US dollar very soon. All that coldness and cruelty could have investors rushing back to safe harbours. 

Stocks get beat up on Sun-Mars aspect

Stocks moved lower last week on recovery worries and poor US consumer data.  Despite Thursday’s rally on the upbeat Q3 GDP numbers, the New York market fell 4% as the Dow closed at 9712 and the S&P at 1036.  Meanwhile, Mumbai tumbled 6% on disappointing Q2 results as the Nifty closed at 4711 with the Sensex finishing at 15,896.  This bearish result was in keeping with last week’s forecast as the double dose of malefic debilitation from the Sun-Mars square contributed to the anxious mood.   The tension inherent in the Sun-Mars tandem was powerful enough to counter much of the optimism of the passing Venus-Jupiter aspect.  Monday started higher in New York on the Moon-Jupiter conjunction but selling soon engulfed the rally faithful.  Thursday’s 2% bump came on the same day as the exact Venus-Jupiter aspect so that is one possible explanation for it.  Not surprisingly, its effects didn’t last long as the market sold off sharply on Friday as the Moon set up a nasty t-square pattern with Saturn and Pluto. 

This volatility is likely to continue this week as we will see more potential planetary trouble spots. Monday’s Full Moon in sidereal Aries occurs at the tail end of a difficult Mercury-Mars aspect, a very dangerous combination that could prove anathema to investor confidence.  At the same time, however, Venus will form an aspect with Rahu, Uranus and Neptune which may offer some support.  While otherwise positive, its simultaneous occurrence here may not be enough to bring sellers back into the market.  As the Moon enters Taurus late Tuesday, the Sun and Mercury will form a conjunction at 18 degrees of sidereal Libra in midweek.  This is normally a favourable combination for stocks so some kind of bounce back is to be expected. Of course, the other medium term influences look less positive so it’s unclear how much lift this configuration can generate here.  Friday looks like more skittishness as Mercury will fall under the minor aspect of Saturn, especially in New York.

The long-awaited correction seems to be fully underway now.   The bearish promise of the Saturn-Pluto and Ketu-Uranus aspects would tend to suggest that we’re going to see a decline that is larger than a standard-issue 10% dip.  Even with some optimism returning for the Jupiter Neptune conjunction in early December, there’s good reason to think this 7-month rally is undergoing some fundamental transformation. 

Market eases back after earnings reports

Stocks slipped last week as investors took profits on positive earnings news.   In New York, the Dow backed off its highs and closed Friday down about 1% for the week at 9972 while the S&P finished at 1079.  In Mumbai, stocks retreated 3% as the Sensex closed at 16,810 and the Nifty at 4997.    No surprises here really given the mix of aspects in play, although as always the exact timing defied an easy logic.  The bullish Mercury-Jupiter aspect manifested a day early in Monday’s gain while the midweek Sun-Saturn minor aspect similarly arrived somewhat ahead of exactitude as the market pulled back on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Interestingly, Friday’s apparently bullish Mercury-Uranus-Neptune aspect did not pay off as stocks fell in New York, albeit after a positive open.  The failure of the market to hold onto its initial gains on this configuration is a possible sign of developing weakness.

This week’s planets seem somewhat more difficult and will be an important test of the underlying sustainability of the rally.  For the bulls, Venus comes under the benefic influence of Jupiter early in the week, with gains possible on either Monday or Tuesday.   The Moon may play the role of midwife here as it conjoins Jupiter in Capricorn for both these days, although I am skeptical if we will see gains both days.   Actually, the aspect is exact early Thursday but it seems more likely to manifest early all things considered. 

For the bears, the Sun is entering into a potential tense square aspect with Mars, also on Thursday.  These fiery planets can produce a lot of energy for good or ill but the square aspect can mean that there is an uncontrolled or harmful element present here, particularly since Mars is debilitated in sidereal Cancer and the Sun is debilitated in Libra.  While it’s conceivable that this combination may not reflect problems in investors sentiment, it’s nonetheless an aspect to take very seriously.   In addition, Mercury is in a minor aspect with Saturn midweek so that is another potentially bearish energy. By the time Friday rolls around, Mercury (10 Libra) will be close to coming under the influence of that debilitated Mars (12 Cancer) so that is definitely a hazardous aspect for stocks.  It’s still two degrees short of exactitude but that may not be enough to prevent fear from taking hold in the market.    As a special bearish bonus, on Friday the Moon forms a t-square with Saturn and Pluto, now just one degree away from an exact 90 degree aspect.  While these two slow moving planets will be in aspect for several weeks in November, this may be a possible early activation by the transiting Moon.  It will definitely bear close watching. 

Stocks hit new highs on Jupiter station

Euphoria is back in fashion as the Dow hit 10,000 last week on a parade of encouraging earnings reports.   A double shot of Intel and JP Morgan on Wednesday was the big market mover coming just one day after Jupiter’s direct station.  Despite the danger implied in the Venus-Saturn-Rahu pattern, Jupiter’s extra dose of stationary energy prevailed as the Great Benefic did the heavy lifting this time around.  After Friday’s retreat, the Dow finished the week at 9995 and the S&P at 1087.  In Mumbai, stocks were also buoyant as the Nifty climbed to 5142 and the Sensex hit a 17-month high of 17,322.  Heady days indeed for this rally that has bounced back from every correction thus far.  I had thought the Saturn-Rahu might have been enough to nullify the Jupiter station but again my best laid bearish plans were thwarted. 

What may be occurring here is a kind of planetary inversion where some apparently negative patterns are corresponding with highs rather than lows.  One of the most prominent features of the October 2008 crash was an alignment of mostly malefic planets — Sun, Saturn and Rahu.  Negative sentiment and market declines correspond with "bad" planets in close aspect.  The lows are typically marked by the exact aspect after which prices rebound and move higher.   The March 2009 lows also occurred in a similar way as malefic Saturn was in close aspect with a stationing Venus.   The negativity of the aspect manifested at the same time as the market low.  But since this is the unknowable world of  astrology, there are many exceptions to this pattern.  In fact, global stock markets made their highs in October 2007 very close to a rare triple conjunction of Venus, Saturn, and Ketu.  While Venus is a benefic planet, Saturn and Ketu are first class malefics and thus render the pattern quite harmful.  So in that case, bad planets corresponded not with a low, but with a high.  Where did all that negativity go?  Perhaps some negative combinations only mark the beginning of a negative trend, like opening up a black door of bearishness.  Once the market made its highs in late 2007, it plunged 40% over the next 12 months. 

So it may be that some of these difficult patterns we’ve seen in September and October may actually be marking significant highs for the market.   While the market has rallied going into these patterns, the Saturn-Rahu and Saturn-Uranus aspects may well have opened the black door once again and some significant declines are about to unfold.

This week holds some promise for the bulls as Tuesday’s Mercury-Jupiter aspect usually brings optimism and good news. And Friday sees Mercury moving into a minor aspects with Uranus and Neptune so that also augurs positively for stocks.  But on the other side of the ledger, Mars is in a harmonic aspect with Pluto on Monday and the Sun receives a minor aspect from Saturn on Wednesday and Thursday.  We could well see an increase in volatility this here leading into the very difficult Sun-Mars-Mercury square next week.
 

US stocks move higher on Mercury-Saturn conjunction; Venus-Saturn is next

Taking cues from some positive earnings reports and the Australian central bank hike, stocks in New York erased last week’s losses and gained 4% last week as the Dow closed at 9864 while the S&P finished at 1071.   This result was a bit of a head-scratcher given the apparently bearish Mercury-Saturn-Rahu configuration and the multi-planet sidereal ingress.  One possible explanation for the rise might be the relative strength of Mercury entering Virgo, its sign of exaltation.  While I noted this as a positive influence, I did not expect it would have the power to transform the outcome.  The array of minor aspects from this strong Mercury to Uranus and Neptune may have also played a role in throwing the bulls a lifeline for another week. By contrast, investors in Mumbai finally took some profits, although the 3% decline was more modest than expected as the Nifty closed at 4945 and the Sensex at 16,642.  Like meteorology or economics, astrology is all about probabilities and potentialities and one has to forgo scientific certainty and somehow make their peace with working with incomplete data, partially understood theories and, ultimately, a lot of interpretive error.  

While last week’s decline never materialized, the planetary alignment is still in place and therefore the downside risk remains high.  While Mercury may have been strong enough to redirect the nastiness of Saturn and Rahu, this week will see a debilitated Venus in Virgo running the gauntlet as it takes its place in a conjunction with Saturn.  A decline is again the most likely outcome here and it could be fairly large, especially earlier in the week when the conjunction is closest.  Slow moving Uranus and Neptune are still just minutes from their respective ingresses into Aquarius and Capricorn, so that uncertain energy may still be in play.  Some rebound seems more likely at the end of the week as the Sun forms an aspect with Uranus and Neptune.

The current planetary environment strongly points to a major market decline at some point over the next three months.  This could begin as soon as this week (or last week!) or it may unfold more gradually as we move into November and December.
 

Next Forecast: Sunday October 18

Stocks continue retreat on Mercury-Mars; planetary trainwreck looms

Last week US markets fell the for second straight week amidst growing fears that the recovery may not be just around the corner.  Stocks fell 2% as the Dow closed at 9487 and the S&P finished at 1025.  Indian markets bucked the worldwide negative trend in a holiday-shortened week as the stocks moved 2% higher.  The Sensex closed Thursday at 17,134 while the Nifty ended the week at 5083.  This outcome was mostly in keeping with expectations since I had been bearish on the unusually prolonged minor Mercury-Mars aspect last week.  After Monday’s gain in New York, stocks fell over the next four days as the retreat from the previous week’s highs proceeded apace.  So far, the Saturn-Uranus aspect is proving to be a significant signpost for the markets as stocks rose leading up to the exact opposition aspect on September 18, and have fallen as the aspect has separated.  This mirrors what happened in the two previous oppositions in November 2008 and February 2009.  Mumbai is an important exception to this trend so far, perhaps due to some benefic hits in the relevant natal charts that have offset  the transit energy.

The markets now stand on the precipice as we have an impressive array of foreboding planetary aspects this week.  Mercury (trading) conjoins Saturn (pessimism) while under the damaging aspect of Rahu (exaggeration).   While there is no certain interpretation of this configuration, I believe we are likely going to see increased fears and investor caution which will translate into greater selling and more declines.   As an added dimension, I note that we will have no less than four planetary ingresses this week.  When planets change signs, there is supposed to be a shift in energy.  Usually this is fairly subtle, and often undetectable (read: unfalsifiable) especially on a mundane level.  Now once again moving forward, Mercury re-enters Virgo on Sunday while Mars enters Cancer on the same day.  Virgo is generally kind to Mercury so that may be construed as a slightly bullish factor.  But Mars is debilitated in Cancer and that may increase volatility as aggression and conflict is more likely to come to the surface.  Mars is also in a close conjunction with unpredictable Ketu, so that ratchets up the chances for unusual or sudden outbursts of conflict or violent action.  (As a side note, the September 11th attacks took place under a Mars-Ketu conjunction).  So that’s two planets changing energy on the same day and neither in is good planetary company — Mercury is with grim, old Saturn and Mars is with nutty Ketu.  This is quite unusual, and perhaps destabilizing although the ingresses may be less important than the aspects and conjunctions

But we also have two outer planets, Uranus and Neptune, also changing their sidereal signs this week according to Lahiri or Krishnamurti.  Unlike inner planets which change signs every month or so, outer planets change signs every few years and hence their ingresses may be more noteworthy.  According to the Krishnamurti ayanamsha, Uranus enters Aquarius Monday while Neptune enters Capricorn on Thursday.  Since these distant planets move so slowly, their ingresses will vary by a few days depending on which ayanamsha is used.  I should also point out that this will not be the initial ingress for either Uranus or Neptune since both are retrograding back to a previous sign, and hence one could argue that the ingress may be less significant.   Nonetheless, having four planets changing signs in such quick succession is a very rare occurrence and may serve to amplify any developments we see in the markets or the world over the next week or two.  American astrologer Richard Houck noted that outer planet ingresses often coincide with major changes in the status quo.  Uranus in particular was associated with major stock market declines.  The 1987 US crash occurred the day Uranus entered Sagittarius, and the Dow lost 6% the day Uranus entered Capricorn in 1994.  It’s by no means a certain correlation or even a probabilistic one since we can point to many Uranus ingresses when the markets were relatively calm.  But it should be seen as another potentially negative factor that could weigh heavily on markets, especially combined with the difficult Mercury-Saturn-Rahu and Mars-Ketu patterns.

This week nothing would surprise me.  Get ready for anything.
 

World markets staged a modest retreat last week as investors grappled with disappointing economic data coming out of the US.   After some early week strength that saw indexes climb to new yearly highs, stocks in New York had three straight losing sessions as the Dow finished at 9665 and the S&P at 1044.  Indian markets also pulled back fractionally as the Nifty closed below 5000 to 4958 while the Sensex ended the week at 16,693.  This decline was in keeping with our expectations for a significant correction in the wake of the Saturn-Uranus opposition.    Tuesday’s exact Mercury-Saturn conjunction coincided with gains rather than losses so that was an important anomaly that echoed a similar outcome of the Sun from the previous week.   The declines later in the week therefore reflected the dissipation of positive energy following the the exact aspect of these various planetary combinations.  Just as we saw a rise into the Saturn-Uranus aspect through the first half of September, the backside of this aspect may well see the market sell off.  The addition of trigger planets such as Sun or Mercury may also reflect this before/after dynamic.

The planetary picture appears even more entangled this week as Mercury turns direct on Tuesday while in close minor aspect with Mars.   Mercury’s normally bearish retrograde period has been overshadowed by stronger bullish energies.  However, we should recall that its aspects with Mars can be troublesome for the market, such as in late August when Mars formed a square aspect with Mercury and the market experienced a small correction.  While this 60 degree aspect is considered less malefic, it’s closeness and long duration of influence this week may well produce bearish results.   The close proximity of Saturn to stationary Mercury may not be helpful in that regard either and could well make matters worse.  And with Saturn and Rahu moving into closer aspect, there is good reason to be very cautious about this market this week and through much of October.

It’s a dangerous time.

Fueled by a seemingly unending stream of positive economic reports, stocks continued their ascent to new 2009 highs last week.  In New York, the Dow rose 2%

 to close at 9820 while the S&P finished at 1068.  In Mumbai, the Nifty added 3% for the week and flirted with 5000 before ending the week at 4976.  The BSE Sensex closed at 16,741.  Commodities were mixed as crude oil rose to $72 USD while gold gave up midweek gains and ended mostly unchanged at $1007 USD.   While I had anticipated some higher highs here, the absence of any significant late week pullback on the Sun-Moon-Saturn conjunction was disappointing.  On the whole, the week was somewhat anti-climatic given the exact culmination of Saturn-Uranus opposition aspect.   The Venus influence delivered predicted gains into Wednesday when it formed its closest angle to the Saturn-Uranus-Neptune alignment and indeed we saw the biggest gains of the week at that time.  Against expectations, equities mostly held their own into the late week, however, as the Sun-Saturn conjunction only modestly damaged gold’s prospects. 

With the Saturn-Uranus opposition now behind us, we need to pay extra close attention to any new developing trends this week.  Previous oppositions in this series have seen the bulk of the bearishness manifest after the exact opposition, so any downward moves this week would keep this correlation intact.  Higher prices this week would provide significant evidence against the bearish view of the aftermath of the Saturn-Uranus aspect.   With Mercury retrograding across Saturn, we would seem to be confronted with an even more bearish mixture of planetary energies than in past weeks.  The exact conjunction occurs Tuesday so the early week may be more prone to selling.  Of course, the Sun occupied a similar position last Thursday and we saw only a fractional decline.  Nonetheless, Mercury’s condition may be more vulnerable given its retrograde status.  Some late week gains are likely as the Sun forms a minor aspect with Jupiter Thursday and into Friday.  We should also pay attention to the approaching aspect from Rahu to Saturn.  While not yet exact, the negative energy from this contact could begin to manifest fairly soon. 

Stocks make new highs on Venus-Jupiter aspect

Against a backdrop of improving economic data, stocks gamely added to their recent gains and made new highs for the year.  In New York, the Dow rose 2% and equaled its highs from late August closing at 9605 while the broader S&P500 finished at 1042.  In Mumbai, equities rallied more than 3% as the Sensex ended Friday’s session at 16,264 while the Nifty broke above some significant resistance at 4750 closing at 4829.  This bullish outcome was more or less in line with our expectations as the Sun-Venus-Jupiter configuration strongly pointed towards some gains.   What was somewhat surprising was that the lion’s share of the gains occurred early in the week, although solid momentum was maintained in the US for Wednesday and Thursday at the time of the tightest orb.  Friday saw a modest negative day in the US, probably due to the separation of the Venus-Jupiter aspect.

In astrological terms, this week promises to be a moment of truth of sorts, as the long-awaited Saturn-Uranus opposition aspect will become exact on Tuesday.  There is actually a lot more going on in the sky this week and that will only serve to ramp up the torque and increase the potential size of any moves.  As a possible triggering mechanism, the Sun will conjoin Saturn on Thursday while the Moon follows suit on Friday.  As an added source of planetary energy, Mercury will square Pluto late in the week and this should be seen as a burden on risk taking and optimism.  Notwithstanding the fairly negative outlook here, the earlier part of the week holds the possibility for further gains in both stocks and commodities as benefic Venus will enter into alignments with Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. 

We should also note that this Sun-Moon-Saturn-Uranus-Neptune configuration (all in the first sidereal degree of their respective signs) not only increases the chances for declines, it may also function as a cosmic signal for a trend reversal.   Previous Saturn and Uranus oppositions in the current series have also coincided with significant pullbacks, although not during the immediate period around their aspect.   On November 4, 2008 Saturn opposed Uranus (along with a helpful square aspect from Venus) and that marked an interim high for the US market.   Stocks fell 20% in the subsequent three weeks into the November 21 lows.  Similarly, Saturn again opposed Uranus on February 5, 2009 near an interim high and the market fell 25% into the lows of early March.  In both instances, it was not the time around the exact aspect which took the market down, but rather the aftermath of the aspect which coincided with the decline.   This ‘high water’ scenario is something to ponder as we confront another Saturn-Uranus opposition this week. 
 

Markets back off highs on Mercury-Mars square

Stocks staged a modest retreat last week as more investors entertained second thoughts about the sustainability of the rally.  After trading below 1000 earlier in the week, the S&P ended the week at 1016 while the Dow finished at 9441.  In Mumbai, caution was also the watchword as stocks fell four sessions out of five with only Friday’s gains precluding a rout.  The Sensex ended the week at 15,689 and the Nifty backed off last week’s highs to close at 4680.   While I had been ambivalent about the ultimate outcome last week due to the uncertain impact of Jupiter, the basic contours unfolded as expected with weakness early on followed by gains later.  Monday and Tuesday saw the bearish effects of the Mercury-Mars aspect prevail while the approaching positive aspect between Venus and Sun at the end of the week coincided with solid gains.  In the end, Jupiter’s minor aspect with both Mercury and Mars did not provide enough encouragement for bulls to assume long positions but rather served to magnify the selling pressure, as Tuesday’s across the board decline in New York was the sharpest in several weeks.   While Jupiter is most often a bullish influence because of its optimistic nature, it is also a planet that can sometimes serve only as an accelerator to prevailing trends regardless of their direction.

With US markets shut for the Labor Day holiday, Monday will feature the beginning of the retrograde Mercury cycle on September 7.  Since Mercury is the planet associated with trade and commerce, its reverse motion is often indicative of negative or sideways markets as investors take a ‘time out’ to review their positions and re-assess their portfolios.  The Mercury retrograde cycle will last until Sept 29 and should be seen as an additional bearish factor that will tend to work against the markets extending its rally.   With Saturn entering sidereal Virgo on Wednesday, we may see traces of its energy manifest in the world as it changes sign.  Saturn represents structure, authority, loss and tradition so some of these themes may be more in evidence in the coming days.  This needn’t have an immediate effect on the market although the early week period may be more prone to selling.   We may see stocks rebound strongly Wednesday and Thursday (and possibly into Friday, esp. in Asia) on the opposition aspect between Venus (24 Cancer) and Jupiter (24 Capricorn).  This combination of benefics may promote spending and investing and encourage greater risk taking in the marketplace so we could well see stocks approach their previous week’s highs.  The fact that the Sun (24 Leo) will be in minor aspect to this opposition may increase its bullish potential.   Since Sun symbolizes gold, we can expect gold to continue it recent rally, probably above $1000.  Given the preponderance of difficult aspects next week, however, this rally seems very short-lived indeed.

New York holds steady; Mumbai makes new highs

World markets continued to defy gravity last week new yearly highs were established on many bourses, including US and India.  After trading around 9600 in the week, stocks in New York closed mostly unchanged as the Dow ended at 9544 and the S&P at 1028.  Mumbai was even more bullish as markets rose in all five sessions, as the Nifty closed Friday at a 2009 high of 4732 while the Sensex finished at 15,922.   I had expected more downside on the Mercury-Mars-Rahu-Pluto pattern but it seems the offsetting Venus-Ketu conjunction on Wednesday may have been stronger than anticipated.  As expected, we did see some more gains later in the week, especially in India, as transiting Venus improved the overall energy in the Mercury-Mars aspect.  And while gold was weaker early on in the week as I had suspected it might be, it also staged a strong recovery by Friday.

This week offers another opportunity for the bearishness of the Mercury-Mars square to manifest, possibly early on when the Moon joins Rahu in Capricorn.  By midweek, however, this energy may be redirected by Jupiter’s minor aspect to this square.  Jupiter is essentially an expansive influence so it has the capacity to enhance whatever trends are already underway.  This could conceivably amplify any down move, although given Jupiter’s benefic default setting towards gains, one might think it could take stocks higher also.  By the end of the week, Venus will be moving into a minor aspect with the Sun, so that is another potential bullish energy source in the face of the negativity of the Mercury-Mars square and Mercury’s imminent retrograde station on September 7.   As the planet of trading and commerce, Mercury’s condition is of critical importance in understanding the market, at least on a short-term basis.  When it is strong, markets rise and when it is weak or afflicted, markets tend to fall.  Its current placement in sidereal Virgo (which Mercury is said to rule according to astrological tradition) is an indicator of strength and no doubt that is one reason the market has so far been able to continue to rise despite the problematic input from the Mars aspect.  But Mercury will likely come under further stress as we move into its retrograde cycle from Sept 7th to 29th. 

While the overall planetary picture looks increasingly tense here, I would not be too surprised to see higher highs this week.   Much will depend on what role Jupiter is playing midweek through its contact with Mercury and Mars.  If Tuesday sees gains, then that will likely tip the scales in favour of more gains overall for the week and a possible new high.

New York stocks make new highs

Stocks in New York made new highs for 2009 last week as improving housing data supplied the hope necessary to extend the summer rally.  After Monday’s sharp decline, stocks rebounded and ended 2% to the good with the Dow closing at 9505 and the S&P at 1026.  While I have a pessimistic view of stocks right now, this outcome was not that far out of line with last week’s forecast — at least in terms of ebb and flow.  Monday’s pullback came right on schedule with the Mercury-Saturn conjunction, even if it was fairly mild, at least in the US. I had also suggested that some gains were likely Wednesday through Friday as Mercury and Venus were involved with better planetary company.   This bullish script also played out more or less as rehearsed as stocks went straight up after Monday.  There was a somewhat different story in Mumbai as stocks fell over 1% for the week, although the basic trends were the same.  Monday’s decline was steeper (5%) and hence that perhaps better captured the extent of bearishness I was expecting.  The rebound was also somewhat more muted especially since Wednesday ended down.  Thursday and Friday were positive though so that was solid evidence for the benefic effects of Mercury and Venus.

The planetary focus this week is a fairly rare and powerful four planet alignment involving Mercury, Mars, Pluto, and Rahu.  All these planets will be a 6 degrees of their respective signs and will therefore be in mutual harmonic resonance.  In addition, Mercury falls under the full strength aspect of malefic Mars and disruptive Rahu.  On paper, it’s a rogue’s gallery of planetary evil-doers all ganging up on Mercury, the quintessential innocent bystander and has all the makings of a bear party for all markets, including oil and especially gold.  Since Mercury is slowing down in advance of its retrograde cycle, this alignment could conceivably kick-in at any time in the week, although the early to midweek may be more likely.  One interesting twist here is that Venus will conjoin Ketu on Wednesday and this bullish influence could be enough to interrupt the bear party, if only for a few hours.  Later in the week, Pluto and Rahu get left behind and Venus moves into the picture, so there may be more opportunity for the bulls to run again then.

Despite these new highs, it’s hard to come up with too many more bullish planetary patterns in the coming weeks.  Sure, there are a smattering of a fairly good aspect late this week and a potentially significant two-day multi-aspect next week, but these little pools of hope are fast petering out and there will soon be no more oases for the bulls to feed on.  And with fewer good aspects and an increasing number of bad aspects, the market will soon begin to fall.

Stocks in holding pattern in advance of important planetary configuration

Stocks in New York finished slightly lower last week as disappointing retail sales weighed against improved industrial production data.   After trading at key resistance levels on Thursday, the Dow closed at 9321 and the S&P at 1004.   Meanwhile, Indian shares managed to move modestly higher after hitting midweek lows of 4400 on the Nifty.  While still significantly below recent highs, the Nifty closed at 4580 and the Sensex at 15,411. This middling sort of outcome was more or less in line with expectations as the early week declines on the Mars-Saturn square were offset by the Sun-Mars-Jupiter alignment on Wednesday and Thursday.   As is often the case, Friday’s decline in New York came on the heels of this positive aspect and was not unduly surprising, particularly since our outlook is generally bearish here.

This week promises to be even more volatile as there are two very potent multi-planet alignments that form exact angles early on.  Monday will feature an apparently bearish Mercury-Saturn conjunction at 27 Leo.  Generally speaking Saturn contacts are considered bad news for stocks and this one is perhaps more likely to signal a retreat because Jupiter is also involved.  Jupiter (27 Capricorn) sits in a tense 6/8 quincunx aspect with this conjunction and that would appear to bode poorly for markets this week.  In addition, no less than four planets — Sun, Mars, Uranus and Neptune — are all placed at 1 degree of their respective signs Monday and Tuesday.  This adds a lot of planetary fuel to the mix and could magnify any moves this week.  The most likely scenario here would appear to be early week decline — possibly a steep one — followed by a recovery later as Venus forms a minor aspect with Jupiter on Wednesday and Thursday.  Mercury’s opposition to Uranus on Friday also has the potential to lift stocks, but perhaps only if we’ve seen real damage inflicted earlier in the week from the Mercury-Saturn aspect.  The negative payload of these planets have to be released first before more positive energies can be expressed.

With Saturn approaching its opposition aspect with Uranus in September, it’s very hard to imagine the market going anywhere but down.   The more important matter therefore concerns how low could this retracement might go.  Given all the tense aspects between now and November and the relative absence of positive ones, it seems that this decline may be much bigger than a garden variety correction.  

Prepare the lifeboats.
 

US market extends rally on Mercury-Venus; Mumbai falls

Stocks powered higher in New York last week on better than expected employment data.  Despite some midweek profit taking, the Dow rose 2% to close at 9370 while the S&P finished near a key resistance level of 1010, which was the post-crash November 2008 high.   This bullish outcome was more or less in keeping with my forecast last week as the Mercury-Venus aspect provided sufficient optimism to encourage risk takers.   More specifically, Monday was up as expected but Thursday’s anticipated gain arrived late as markets only rose Friday.  In Mumbai, worries over the monsoon trumped global cues as the indexes fell 3-4%.  After some early week strength that retested key resistance levels at 4700, the Nifty ended the week at 4481 while the Sensex stood at 15,160.   So we did see more upside as forecast although the gains did not hold.  Interestingly Thursday was higher intraday but gains disappeared by the close.  This was perhaps an instance of a generally favourable transit aspect between Mercury (12 Leo) and Venus (12 Gemini) feeding into the stressful natal position of Saturn (12 Aquarius) to produce a decline instead of a rise.

Now that the triple eclipse series is behind us, we should look at this stock rally as living on borrowed time.  The eclipses have lit the fuses and started the timer so it’s now only a matter of the right triggering planets coming together to release the explosive bearish energy and push prices down.  This week features a couple of very strong aspects which have the potential to move markets in both directions.  Mars squares Saturn on Monday but this 90 degree relationship is arguably more effective since they mutually aspect one another according to classical Hindu aspecting rules.  Mars casts its 4th house square aspect forward to Saturn and Saturn casts its 10th house square aspect to Mars.  Since both planets are malefic, there is a probability for negative fallout here.  However, as the week progresses Mars will be influenced by Jupiter’s benefic rays so that could change sentiment considerably.  This is all the more likely given that the Sun will be part of this multi-planet alignment.  

Caveat emptor has never been better advice.

Stocks move higher on Mercury-Jupiter; Lunar Eclipse due this week

Week of August 3 – 7

Stocks continued their drift upward last week on better than expected Q2 GDP data in the US.   After some midweek bearishness, the Dow closed Friday at 9171 while the S&P stood at 987.   In Mumbai, the Sensex touched a 13-month high intraday on Thursday before closing at 15,670 while the Nifty ended the week at 4636. This bullish outcome was mostly in keeping with expectations as the quick succession of Venus and Mercury aspects with Jupiter provided enough optimism to move markets higher.  Monday’s Mercury-Saturn aspect largely offset the Venus-Jupiter trine as stocks treaded water.  As I expected, there was more selling Tuesday and Wednesday in the "hangover" aftermath of that positive configuration. The Mercury-Jupiter aspect on Wednesday and Thursday arrived more or less on schedule, although Wednesday was mostly down.  Friday did not see any big declines despite retrograde Jupiter entering sidereal Capricorn, although that is a longer term bearish influence that will be operating for the next several months.

This week we will see the third and last eclipse in this series as a lunar eclipse occurs on Wednesday (EDT) at 19 degrees of Capricorn.  Eclipses mark periods of change and instability in the world and this eclipse seems to promise that and more.  The previous solar eclipse featured a close Venus-Saturn square which, I argued, foretold of coming problems and losses (Saturn) with financial markets and money (Venus).  Well, we will soon see if that interpretation will be borne out by events.  This lunar eclipse also has a strong Saturn aspect, this time with Mars.  And as (bad) luck would have it, it is also a tense square aspect within three degrees of orb.  Mars-Saturn aspects can represent situations of violence, oppression, frustration, and destruction and in the present context may indicate growing geopolitical concerns that could involve military conflict in the coming weeks.   On that point, we should note that President Obama’s chart is also under a lot of stress in the coming weeks as Saturn and Mercury will conjoin atop his natal Mars.  While this pattern may simply represent increased frustration and failure with his health plan reforms (polls indicate he’s in trouble on that issue), the Mars factor here opens the possibility of some kind of military or geopolitical problem. 

This week the market may well be able to stave off the bears for a little while longer as Mercury moves into aspect with Venus by Friday.  We could see some sizable moves in both directions this week, with Monday and Thursday looking the most positive on paper.  So I would not be surprised to see more upside here, although with the Mars-Saturn square due to come exact next Monday the 10th and the Mercury-Saturn conjunction on the 18th, all gains should be seen as very temporary indeed.  Investors would be well advised to practice their best version of Buddhist non-attachment to any long positions before this rally falls apart.

As the man with the sandwich board sign tells us, the end is nigh.
 

Rally intact despite Solar Eclipse; Venus and Mercury next in line

Week of July 27 – 31

With the solar eclipse showing no immediate effects, markets continued their winning ways last week as stocks rose 4% on more good earnings reports.   The Dow closed at 9093 while the S&P stood at 979.  It was much the same story in Mumbai, as the Nifty climbed to 4568 and the Sensex to 15,378.  While the eclipse correlated with modest declines Tuesday and Wednesday in India (but only Wednesday in New York), the apparently unstoppable ebullience highlighted the ongoing influence of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction.  While the late week gains fell in line with expectations for a bump up from the Sun-Moon parivartana yoga, I thought the eclipse might have claimed more victims.  As I have previously noted, eclipses are not atomic clocks and cannot be relied upon to dictate market moves.  They are probabilistic instruments not unlike road signs that notify the traveller of trouble ahead ("Construction Zone: next 10 miles").  Just when the trouble will manifest isn’t always clear, but that Venus-Saturn square of July 22 does not portend a happy ending to this rally.

This week’s planets would appear to offer more bullish fuel to investors as Venus forms an aspect with the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction (and later Uranus, too) while Mercury follows suit Wednesday and Thursday.  Monday’s positive alignment has a large asterisk however, since Mercury is in a close minor alignment with Saturn and that has the power to take markets down on at least one day in the early going.  Nonetheless, the balance of energy would seem to favour the bulls here as we can expect to see stocks to bounce back from any losses they might incur.  This seemingly bottomless reservoir of well-meaning but ultimately deluded hope will likely also push oil and gold higher.  In the wake of the positive Mercury-Jupiter aspect late week, there is increased risk of a hangover-like reaction that follows the completion of a triggering aspect by a fast moving planet (Venus, Mercury) to a larger configuration of slower moving planets such as Jupiter, Neptune and Uranus.  In investment parlance, this reaction is known as profit-taking.  

The planetary weather in August looks conducive to more gains on optimism over the prospects for recovery, at least at the outset.  By month’s end, however, the folly of our ways will be revealed.
 

Stocks rallied strongly last week on positive US earnings reports and favourable economic data coming out of China.  In New York, the Dow gained 7% to close at 8743 and the S&P finished at 940, as markets rose back towards their June highs.   In Mumbai the rally was no less impressive as the Nifty gained 8% to end the week at 4374 while the Sensex once again pushed toward the 15k level as it closed at 14,744.  Although I allowed for some up days on the Sun-Mercury conjunction, my forecast was far too bearish last week.  Interestingly, the Mars-Rahu aspect did indeed push the market down Monday in Asia with recovery coming in the afternoon in New York as stocks moved higher on the Sun-Mercury conjunction in late sidereal Gemini.   As it turned out, both the Mercury-Uranus aspect and the Sun-Jupiter aspect later in the week overwhelmed whatever bearishness was contained within Friday’s Mercury-Ketu aspect as stocks moved higher.  The bullish momentum from last week is perhaps an indicator of the resilience of the market here so there is likely a little more upside to come as we move into August before the status quo is upset.  Jupiter enters sidereal Capricorn on July 31 where it will remain until December.  As the planet of optimism and confidence, Jupiter will be weakened by its transit into the sign of its debilitation.  This is another reason for being skeptical about the staying power of any rallies in this market.

And speaking of upsetting the status quo, this week features a total solar eclipse on Wednesday (GMT) which will be visible in central India and China.  The eclipse will occur at the same time Venus (24 Taurus) is in square aspect to Saturn (24 Leo).  This not only can create feelings of caution and pessimism (Saturn) around money (Venus) during the early and middle part of the week when the aspect is closest, it may also foretell a significant decline in the world economy in the weeks and months to come.  Eclipse effects usually take days or weeks to manifest (and many astrologers would also say months in some cases), so that is an indicator that the optimism over the economic recovery may wane in the near future.  As this lengthy Jupiter-Neptune conjunction finally separates, we will likely see a major decline in stock prices, starting sometime in August and continuing into the fall.  In terms of other aspect specifics, Mercury and Mars form a minor aspect on Monday and Tuesday and this is another possible source of nervousness that could cause some investors to exit the market.  Some bounce is more likely toward the end of the week on Thursday and Friday as the Moon enters Leo and forms a parivartana yoga with the Sun in Cancer while Venus applies to aspect Jupiter.

Markets fell across the board last week on fears that the much anticipated recovery may have to wait until next year .   In New York, the selloff began in earnest on Tuesday’s sharp loss, as stocks dropped over 2% on the week as the Dow closed at  8146 and the S&P  at 879.  In Mumbai, the damage was much worse, as investors were disappointed by  Monday’s budget that offered greater spending initiatives (and attendant high deficits) and little in the way of significant market reforms.  Stocks fell 9% as the Nifty closed at 4003 and the Sensex at 13,504.  This  bearish outcome was largely in keeping with expectations as the selloff commenced with the exact alignment of Mars with Jupiter and Neptune within a day of the Full Moon.  Thursday’s Moon-Sun-Saturn alignment did broadly coincide with some modest gains as forecast, although they were not sufficient to break the negative trend for the week.  The markets are now in full-blown correction mode as stocks search for a solid bottom.

With the approach of the total Solar Eclipse of July 21, we may continue to see the predominance of caution and pessimism.  The key aspects this week suggest a mixed outcome with high volatility and a possible further downward bias.  Monday will see the tail end of a very nasty Mars-Rahu-Pluto alignment that might be enough to push down markets in Asia, at least in the early going.  Recovery seems more plausible later in the day and into Tuesday as the Sun will conjoin with a very strong Mercury in late sidereal Gemini.  As the week progresses, we see Thursday’s apparently positive Mercury-Uranus aspect that normally might push markets higher.  But given Mercury’s proximity to malefic Ketu, I am not confident that this aspect can produce gains.  By Friday, Mercury will be almost fully in the clutches of Ketu (the South Lunar Node) and this is more likely to put a lot of pressure on investors (as represented by Mercury) as Ketu’s penchant for otherworldliness and spiritual release could make the stock market into an unpopular place.

Stocks in New York sold off sharply Thursday and ended down by more than 2% for the week.  After approaching 8600 Wednesday, the Dow closed at 8280 while the S&P ended at 896.  Mumbai ended a little higher on the week, mostly on the strength of some buying late Friday in anticipation of Monday’s budget announcement.  The Nifty closed at 4424 while the Sensex finished the week at 14,913.   I had expected more of a rise last week given the Mercury-Venus-Jupiter-Neptune alignment so this outcome was somewhat surprising.  It nonetheless provides a useful clue that the strength of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction may now be fading. I had thought we might see some weakness especially given the separation of the Mercury and Venus aspect to Jupiter after midweek and Thursday’s sell off in New York coincided nicely with that phenomenon.  India fared somewhat better although Thursday and much of Friday was fairly flat and uninspired.  Interestingly, the rally in the last two hours of trading Friday occurred just as the Moon was moving into exact square aspect with the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction.  Although the Moon was debilitated in Scorpio, aspects to benefics will often trump other considerations.

This week features a Full Moon on Tuesday at 21 Sagittarius which may incline markets towards caution especially earlier in the week.   On Monday, Mars will be in alignment with the Jupiter-Neptune which may conceivably maintain the enthusiasm for stocks early but the separation of this aspect may bring out sellers in force later.   The Full Moon occurs close to the Mars-Rahu aspect in the NSE chart so that increases the likelihood of a decline around that time.  On a more positive note, there is a three-way Moon-Sun-Saturn aspect on Thursday that may also move the markets significantly.  Since Saturn is in the Sun’s sign of Leo, this Sun contact may possibly correspond with a rise.  Transiting Venus will conjoin the ascendant of the S&P500 natal chart (11 Taurus) later in the week so that also bodes well for higher prices then.

Stocks were mostly unchanged last week as the early selloff from the Venus-Mars-Saturn alignment was offset by late week strength on the Mercury-Saturn square aspect.  In New York, the Dow closed at 8439 while the S&P ended at 918.  In Mumbai, the Sensex ended Friday’s session at 14,764 and the Nifty at 4375.   I thought the market would be more negative here, mostly because I thought the Mercury-Saturn aspect would tend to encourage more selling.  As it turned out, the Mercury-Saturn aspect on Thursday and Friday was a net positive for stocks, perhaps a reflection of the improved condition of Mercury’s dispositor, Venus, which had just passed its conjunction with Mars. 

This week looks more positive as benefics Mercury (1 Gemini) and Venus (1 Taurus) move into harmonic conjunction by midweek.  What makes gains more likely is that this Mercury-Venus association will feed straight into the Jupiter-Neptune (2 Aquarius) conjunction.  While some pullbacks are possible Monday or perhaps later in the week, some of this positive energy seems likely to predominate here.   Even with the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction now moving retrograde, this rally seems like it has further to go.  The next exact conjunction of Jupiter and Neptune occurs Friday, July 10 and the current period is likely to provide support for current levels.  After that, the solar eclipse of July 21 may signal a shift in energy that could interrupt the prevailing upward trend.

Stocks lost ground around the world last week as prospects for recovery suffered on poor US housing data.   In New York, the Dow closed down 3% at 8539 while the S&P finished at 921. Indian stocks also declined almost 5% as the Sensex ended Friday’s trading at 14,521 and the Nifty at 4313.  As if to underline the importance of Jupiter and the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction in this spring rally, stocks moved lower Monday the same day that Jupiter turned retrograde.   As I noted last week, these retrograde stations can often coincide with market reversals and this one was a textbook case.  I had thought we might see more upside midweek on the Sun-Jupiter aspect, but that was not enough to move markets higher.  Mumbai only saw a gain Tuesday as well as a nice move higher right at the close Friday.   The Venus-Mars conjunction did not coincide with much in the way of a correction, and indeed US stocks enjoyed a late week bounce. 

This week has a good chance to start higher as Venus passes Mars on Monday.  Monday will also feature the Gemini New Moon in close opposition to Pluto, so this may increase the size of the price move.  The Pluto opposition often creates problems for government and authority, although this needn’t have any immediate negative market consequences.  As the Mercury square with Saturn tightens into a conjunction by Friday, the market may well turn bearish again and make the week negative overall.    It will be interesting to watch how Jupiter’s new retrograde condition will affect aspects involving faster moving planets.  While still benefic and supportive of higher prices, we may find that an aspect with Jupiter doesn’t produce the same kind of lift that we’ve seen in the past two to three months.  Overall, I don’t think this will be a huge pullback, especially in the US market, and next week we could well see more strength. Watch for gold to move higher early in the week but the rally should fade fairly quickly.
 

Stocks mostly treaded water last week on mixed bag of economic news.  New York continued to trade well above its 200-day moving average, as the Dow closed Friday at 8799 while the S&P finished at 946.  In Mumbai, losses in the beginning and end of the week offset midweek gains as the Nifty closed at 4583 and the Sensex at 15,237.  This outcome was not unexpected, as I noted the possibility that the bullishness of Mercury-Jupiter-Neptune pattern could be counteracted by the negativity of the Mercury-Mars velocity equivalence.  Interestingly, Mumbai’s trading patterns seemed to bear more resemblance to the transit aspects as Tuesday and Wednesday did see a rise with selling late in the week.  By contrast, New York saw some modest gains only late in the week, although they were large enough to change the basically uncommitted tone for the week.

With Jupiter turning retrograde Monday, we have another reason to consider the chances of significant correction across markets this week.   When planets change their direction, markets can often mark a reversal in their direction.  Given that markets have been generally rising lately, this Jupiter retrograde influence makes some kind of pullback somewhat more likely over the coming days.   With the Sun moving into position with the bullish Jupiter-Neptune-Uranus alignment early and midweek, I would think that some gains are likely before any possible move lower.   With Sun-Jupiter-Neptune lining up for the bulls this week, the bears can ponder the negative potential of benefic Venus coming in contact with malefic Mars by next weekend.   Since aspects usually express their energy before forming an exact angle, one would think the days before the conjunction on Sunday, June 21 would be more prone to negativity.  But perhaps the key word here is "usually".
 

Week of June 8 – 12

Stocks gained 3% last week to new 2009 highs on improved prospects for a quick recovery.  Most of the week’s gains came on Monday’s session with some levelling off afterwards, as the Dow closed at 8763 and the S&P at 940.  In Mumbai, anticipation of economic reforms in July’s Union Budget helped push stocks higher as the Nifty closed at 4586 and the Sensex at 15,103.  Much of the early week bullishness came off as expected on the Venus-Jupiter-Neptune alignment as benefic Venus was the trigger to release the optimism of Jupiter.  The Mars-Rahu square could be implicated in Wednesday’s decline, but the pullback was more muted than expected.  And Friday’s Sun-Saturn square was only malefic enough to force a mostly flat outcome.  Even if Jupiter is now separating from Neptune, their proximity seems to be close enough to be overriding other potentially offsetting influences. 

We can see a couple apparently positive aspects forming early this week.  Venus trines Pluto on Monday, while Mercury moves into alignment with Jupiter, Neptune and Uranus on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Of these two aspects, the Mercury would seem to be more reliable to produce an up day or two. Later in the week the picture gets murkier, although there are no clearly negative aspects.  Nonetheless, if there is going to be profit taking this week, I think the late week is a better candidate.  Another clue that we could see some kind of correction starting perhaps midweek and beyond is that Mercury and Mars will be moving at the same velocity — 44 minutes of arc per day as of Wednesday. The malefic influence of Mars may be transmitted to the trading impulse of Mercury and push prices lower.  The timing of this influence is fairly close to the Mercury-Jupiter- Neptune aspect, so it’s conceivable that there will be some balancing out. And given the tenacious optimism of Jupiter and Neptune, it’s hard to picture a big decline here, the separating aspect notwithstanding.

Market stays strong into Jupiter-Neptune conjunction

Week of June 1 – 5

Stocks resumed their winning ways last week on favourable GDP and consumer data.  Markets in New York rose 3% as the Dow closed Friday at 8500 and the S&P at 919.  Mumbai added another 5% as the Sensex ended the week at 14,625 and the Nifty at 4448.   While this positive outcome did not come as a complete surprise given the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction on May 27 coincided with a potentially strong Mars activation, I had thought there might be a little more profit taking.  We can take some solace in the fact that the ebb and flow of the market seemed to follow the planetary forecast as early and midweek declines occurred roughly near the Mars aspect and markets recovered strongly by week’s end as Venus approached its aspect with Mercury.

This week may be more challenging since the malefic aspects appear to outnumber the benefic ones.  Early in the week, Venus (2 Aries) will occupy the same place Mars did last week and thus increases the likelihood of a release of bullish energy contained in the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction.  It should be noted, however, that Jupiter is now moving past Neptune so the bullish effect of these planets of hopeful optimism may be slipping.  Just how fast the power drains from this synergistic combination is uncertain, but we can wonder aloud here if the whole is no longer greater than the sum of its parts. By midweek we will see the malefics come to the fore as Mars squares Rahu and to make matters worse, this will be within range of Pluto’s degree.  These planets often symbolize excessive or even out of control energy that one finds in athletic competitions and violent or military conflicts. While it doesn’t always correspond to bearishness, it probabilistically inclines the market to decline. (!)   The end of the week also does not favour the bulls since the Sun squares Saturn.  As we saw in April, these passing Saturn aspects don’t always manifest when they "should" in terms of exactitude, but given the possible diminishing effect of Jupiter and Neptune now, it may be helpful to be aware of the extra negative potential here even if we don’t act on it.

Jupiter stations on June 15 so that may coincide with a significant turning point since after that date, it will again be moving towards Neptune.  If this recent two month rally can be attributed in part to the Jupiter-Neptune applying conjunction, then it’s very possible that stocks will rise once Jupiter is again moving towards Neptune after the 15th.  That said, Jupiter is not going to drift too far away from Neptune in terms of longitudinal arc (just 37 minutes), so we may be guilty of hair-splitting here.   Nonetheless, the applying-separating dynamic is one of the few somewhat consistent principles of astrology.  It’s not a fool proof Newtonian law, but it works more times than it doesn’t.  In the world of astrology, that’s about as good as it gets.

NY stocks steady; Mumbai celebrates

Last week’s market action reminds us of the importance of applying current transit positions to the relevant natal charts.  Same transits — very different results.  In New York, markets were mostly unchanged as the Dow closed at 8277 and the S&P at 887.  In Mumbai, a totally different story as stocks went into orbit on Monday after the surprisingly large election win by the Congress-led UPA which was announced over the weekend.   Stocks rose 15% for the week with the Nifty finishing at 4238 and the Sensex at 13,887.   The neutral New York outcome was largely in keeping with expectations although the gains arrived a little early with the Sun-Mercury conjunction at 3 Taurus.  This was close enough to trigger the benefic energy contained in the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction (2 Aquarius) and take markets higher, if only briefly after which the bears moved in the rest of the week.  Mumbai took flight because the very same transit alignment was activating some extremely favourable natal placements in the NSE and Sensex charts.  For more details on how this may have unfolded, please see the Mumbai’s Magnificent Monday page.

This week features a couple of interesting aspects.  Jupiter moves into exact conjunction with Neptune on Wednesday.  While this is one of the key sources of bullish energy in these past two months, I’m less convinced that the exact conjunction can generate more gains.  That’s because slow moving planets usually require activation from past moving planets, as we saw from the Sun-Mercury conjunction last week.  The Moon forms a trine aspect to this conjunction late Monday, so that could boost some world markets (US markets will be closed for Memorial Day)  On Tuesday and Wednesday, we have another potential triggering planets as Mars (2 Aries) will move into an exact aspect with the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction.  Unlike Mercury, Mars is a malefic planet so that increases the possibility that net effect may actually be negative.  By Friday, Mercury will move into a close harmonic aspect with Venus so that may well provide some food for the bulls.  So we have a very mixed picture this week with a real question about market direction.  With the bearish Sun-Saturn square due next week, I’m inclined to think that US stocks will continue this phase of consolidation and retracement here.  Indian stocks are perhaps somewhat better candidates for profit taking.
 

Week of May 18 -22

Stocks in New York pulled back off their highs last week as the likely prospect of the GM bankruptcy took a little wind out of the rally’s sails.  Overall the market lost  4% on lower volume as the Dow ended Friday at 8268 while the S&P stood at 882.   Mumbai diverged from global patterns somewhat as Friday’s gain pushed the market up 2% for the week.  After repeatedly coming up against resistance at 3700, the Nifty closed at 3671 and the Sensex at 12,173.   The Mercury-Mars-Saturn alignment did largely coincide with the early week slump although the timing of it was less than mathematical.   With the larger losses confined to Monday and Wednesday, this midweek negative pattern did not quite release its energy like clockwork, but the correlation was still suggestive of a bearish exclamation point against the recent bullish backdrop.  Some strength returned to the market late week as the Sun moved into Taurus and formed a plausibly positive pattern with Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune.  Reflecting the ongoing strength of the Indian market, this produced a significant gain Friday whereas in New York Thursday’s modest rise was followed by a tepid rise Friday morning.  The rally failed by noon, however, as traders took profits ahead of the weekend and took the market lower into the close. 

This week offers a mixed bag of short term planetary influences.  On Monday, the Sun conjoins retrograde Mercury in early sidereal Taurus, while the Moon is in Aquarius opposite Saturn. The Moon-Saturn contact is a marginally negative pattern, while the Sun-Mercury combination is quite variable but can increase the size of a move, depending on which way the market is leaning.  The Sun’s influence on Mercury can be seen as negative since the Sun is a nominally malefic planet in the Vedic schema, and yet the Taurus placement is supported by virtue of the strength of dispositor Venus which is currently exalted in Pisces.  But Venus is in an awkward quincunx aspect with Saturn, so that may make things more difficult.  Of course, the outcomes of this pattern will vary depending on the relevant natal chart contacts.  In Mumbai, a big rally is expected on the heels of a convincing election victory by the pro-market Congress party.  Clearly, the Indian market has been outperforming most other world markets because the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction has been placed at a more positive place relative to the natal chart compared with US markets.  

In the Sensex chart, for example. the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction occurs just three degrees from the ascendant.  In New York, however, I would not be surprised to see some more weakness early on in the week as some natal support seems lacking.  But Mercury will continue its retrograde path and form an apparently positive pattern with Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune midweek.  Actually, Mercury will be in the same place (1 Taurus) that Sun occupied last Thursday and Friday when the market saw some strength.  So some kind of gains are possible then.  Later in the week may not be so favourable as the Sun comes under the aspect of Rahu.  This isn’t necessarily a bad aspect, but it opens up more uncertainty, and that may be problematic for investors seeking out long positions.

What is so interesting about the current alignment of planets in the sky right now is how exaggerated and overdetermined they all appear to be. There is a remarkably rare pattern that features a Jupiter-Neptune conjunction (2 Aquarius) that is taking place in near exact harmonic aspect with Uranus (2 Pisces).  And if we want to throw in Chiron that is also at 2 Aquarius, we have an extremely infrequent pattern of bullish planets.  It is no coincidence that we’ve seen the market rally as strongly as we have.  But now May has seen Mercury turn retrograde and Saturn make its direct station, two decidedly negative influences which may force the market to pause before moving higher, at least in the US.  This rare confluence of sharply good and bad factors has made prediction more difficult than usual (and it’s never straightfoward), as the astrologer is confronted with equations for which there is no definitive solution, only interpretation and speculation.

Stocks stayed in rally mode last week as the bank stress test results proved to be largely a non-event amidst a backdrop of promising economic data.   In New York, stocks moved up to within a few percent of their January highs, as the Dow ended 4% to the good at 8574 while the S&P stood at 929.  In Mumbai, equities continued to trade above their 200-day moving average and gained over 4% as the Nifty stood at 3620 and the Sensex at 11,876.  The early week gains came off as expected on the bullish Venus-Ketu-Pluto configuration but the start of the Mercury retrograde cycle did not mark a significant sell off.   While Mercury retrograde is normally a bearish influence, it does not function like a malefic aspect and therefore acts as a more general influence.   So while I highlighted Mercury’s bearish potential last week, I was not convinced that it would have enough negative energy to counteract the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction that has fueled much of this huge run-up in the past two months.  The optimism (Jupiter) and hope and idealism (Neptune) embodied in these planets has allowed a growing number of investors to look past the negatives in the economy and the long term implications of the various bailout packages and focus on the "green shoots" and hints that financial stabilization is just around the corner.

This week features another potentially negative influence for the markets as Mercury, Mars, and Saturn form a potentially tense multi-planet aspect on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Any contact between Mercury and either malefic, Mars or Saturn, has the potential to move markets lower and the co-presence of both malefics with Mercury is definitely worth paying attention to.  However, these aspects are not full strength aspects so we need to be skeptical about their bearish potential.   In addition, Friday’s entry of the Sun in sidereal Taurus may well prop up the market further since it forms a multi-planet alignment with Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune.  So even if we see some midweek selling, the end of week may see the bulls return in force.  Likewise, I think there’s a good chance crude will continue its winning ways, and gold also likely to stay strong here. 

Saturday will see Saturn change direction from retrograde to direct so that may be a better indication of an impending reversal in the market.  Readers will remember that the six-week rally off the November lows culminated in the first week of January, just a few days after Saturn changed direction and began its current retrograde cycle.   Another instance of this phenomenon of planetary stations and market reversals occurred on October 11, 2007 when Mercury began its retrograde cycle, just days after world stock markets peaked.  Similarly,  in mid-May 2008, markets began a major down leg just one week before Mercury turned retrograde.  While timing is often somewhat inexact, changes in direction of the planets can often correlate to changes in the direction of the market.
 

Week of May 4 – 8

After slumping early in the week, markets edged a little higher last week on some positive earnings news and the prospect of more economic ‘green shoots’. In New York, stocks approached their February highs as the Dow closed at 8212 and the S&P at 877.  Indian stocks were mostly unchanged last week, and did not participate in some of the late week advance due to a Thursday and Friday closing.   Bullishly staying above their 200-day moving average, the Nifty finished Wednesday’s session at 3473 and the Sensex at 11,403.   The early week declines were very much expected in light of the malefic alignment of Mars-Ketu-Pluto, although the bearishness was fairly mild.  The bounce later in the week coincided with Jupiter’s ingress into sidereal Aquarius and the approach of Venus to the Ketu-Pluto configuration which was noted in last week’s forecast.  

This week’s action may also be somewhat mixed at best as the early part of the week seems more positive as the Venus aspect comes exact on Monday.  While some pullback is likely on either Tuesday or Wednesday, the latter part of the week may see the bears assert themselves more forcefully as Mercury turns retrograde on Thursday morning.   Interestingly, the results of the banking stress test will be released on the same day.  While we should be aware that Mercury may not exert its influence immediately, this coincidence would tend to indicate some second thoughts by some investors.   Mercury’s influence is a very important potential ingredient for any significant correction in this recent rally.  There is no guarantee that Mercury’s backwards cycle  (May 7 -31) will push the market lower, but it definitely inclines the market to second guessing, non-committal sideways movement, and outright bearishness. 

As we’ve seen over the past seven weeks, the approaching Jupiter-Neptune conjunction has created a very powerful reservoir of optimism and hope that has helped to move markets higher by 30% in a very short time.  It will require a significant amount of negative planetary energy to offset this bullish alignment.   Retrograde Mercury, even if it is afflicted by Rahu as it is this week, may not be enough in itself to force a major correction.  For that reason, we may have to wait for some of that excess Saturn energy to seep into the collective consciousness once it turns direct on May 16. 

Stocks in New York finished mostly unchanged last week as the rally showed signs of weakening.  After trading as low as 7800 on Tuesday morning, the Dow bounced back and closed Friday at 8076 while the S&P ended at 866.  The story was much the same in India, as the bulls returned late week to push the market higher by 3% as the Sensex closed at 11,329 and the Nifty at 3480.   This outcome was not unexpected as the apparently bearish Mars-Venus conjunction early in the week did push down prices.   The late week comeback was also more or less foretold in the Mercury-Jupiter aspect and later, the Mercury-Uranus aspect.  

The planets this week looks similarly mixed.  Mars comes under the aspect of Ketu on Monday and Tuesday and with Pluto thrown into the mix, it is hard to see much upside there.  Alignments of three malefic planets have the potential to create a mood of frustration and irritation which could encourage a more bearish stance.  The mood may shift rather quickly, however, when Venus replaces Mars in that alignment by Thursday and Friday.  Pluto and Ketu are still malefics and therefore should be treated carefully, but Venus has the power to transform their energies into something positive.  Also Jupiter enters sidereal Aquarius Thursday, so that is another potentially positive energy, particularly for the technology sector since it is governed by Aquarius.  So I would not be surprised to see a significant bounce later on.   Gold may also stand to gain in the next week or two here.  Indian markets are closed for Thursday and Friday, so they may miss out on some of this benefic Venusian energy.

As we approach the Mercury retrograde cycle which starts May 6, markets seem vulnerable to pullbacks.  The planetary situation is complicated by the existence of opposite energies.  The Jupiter-Uranus-Neptune alignment is very positive, and even more so if we want to throw Chiron into the mix which is also conjunct Jupiter and Neptune in early sidereal Aquarius.  Much of this recent rally can be traced back to the formation of this very tight configuration of planets.  It is so positive that its energy started flowing much earlier than I expected.  I thought it might begin to drive up prices in April as Jupiter came to within 5 degrees of Neptune, but the rally began in mid-March when Jupiter was still 10 degrees away.  

But on the other side, we have some more negative influences.  The most immediate is Mercury turning retrograde in aspect with Rahu.  This retrograde cycle lasts until May 31 and is often (but not always) correlated with sideways or negative trends since Rahu introduces irrationality into the thinking process as symbolized by Mercury.   Second, Pluto forms a harmonic aspect with the nodes, Rahu and Ketu which will last for two to three weeks.  This can be problematic for any large scale organizations such as corporations which are represented by Pluto.  The nodal influence can signify uncertainty, transgressions, and imbalance and could coincide with a public skepticism towards large scale enterprises.  Third, Saturn stations on May 16 as it returns to direct motion after spending the past five months in its retrograde cycle. 

By themselves, Saturn stations may not incline the market one way or the other, although they can often mark changes in trend.  For example, when Saturn turned retrograde on December 31, 2008, the fledgling market rally peaked just a few days later and began its long slide down to the March lows.  The previous Saturn direct station on May 3, 2008 coincided with an interim market top as prices peaked days after and then began to fall in earnest by late May.  This doesn’t mean that I think the market is going to start to fall precipitously after May 16.  Far from it.  But as a malefic planet, Saturn has the ability to inject a lot of fear and pessimism into all situations.  For this reason, the time window around this station is unlikely to pass without some bearish consequence.

The bulls refused to let go of the reigns of the market last week as stocks added another 1-2%.  After some early week selling, New York stocks rebounded with the Dow closing Friday at 8131 and the S&P at 869.  In Mumbai, stocks rallied up to their 200 day moving average Wednesday, before falling back a bit by Friday’s close.  The Nifty ended the week at 3384 and the Sensex at an impressive 11,023.  The undercurrent of bullish sentiment on the approaching Jupiter-Neptune conjunction continues to offset most other potentially negative astrological factors.  US markets fell early in the week ahead of the Mars-Uranus conjunction, but this decline was less than expected.  The return of buyers coincided with a fairly innocuous looking Sun-Neptune aspect.

The bears may well rule the early part of this week as Mars approaches Venus on Monday and Tuesday.  The Moon transits Aquarius opposite Saturn on those days, so that may increase levels of caution.  Wednesday features a Mercury-Jupiter square aspect while the Moon enters Pisces to join Venus and Mars. This looks like a significant infusion of energy that could well stimulate buyers.  Friday will see Mercury in aspect with Uranus so that may provide additional stimulation for the bulls.  With Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune all in close harmonic proximity, it may be difficult for this market to fall too far right here.   I think the market may get choppier, with larger declines possible but likely still followed by roughly offsetting gains.   Still, I note that a number of the relevant natal charts show some fundamental afflictions by slow moving malefics such as Saturn and the nodes, so their bearishness should begin to bite very soon. 

This Friday is the Aries New Moon and features a close square aspect between the Sun-Moon conjunction and Rahu and Ketu. This would suggest a rise in nervousness and undermining of confidence over the next four weeks.  Mercury, the planet of trading, is in close square aspect with Jupiter-Neptune which again is not indicative of significant gains. It needn’t  translate into losses, but given the nodal influence on the luminaries, the New Moon chart does not support the notion that this rally can be extended much further.  And when we mix in the prospect of the Mercury retrograde period starting on May 6, the planets seem to be pointing to weaker markets in the near term.

The dollar should continue to strengthen this week, as oil and gold may slide back further.
 

Week of Apr 13 – 17

Stocks racked up more gains last week as the positive profit outlook from Wells Fargo on Thursday brought the bulls out in force yet again.  The Dow closed at 8083, up less than 1% overall while the SPX finished the week at 856.  Indian markets fared somewhat better over the three-day trading week and were up 3% as the Nifty closed at 3342 and the Sensex at 10,803.   While I had expected more downside from the Mars-Saturn opposition, at least there was some pullback early on in the week in the US when this aspect was closest.  Also the bearish Uranus ingress into sidereal Pisces did correspond with the decline below Dow 7800.   The late week gain was also not too surprising given the favourable alignment of Sun-Mars-Jupiter, but I had not expected its positive effects to offset the negative patterns earlier in the week.   Assessing amplitude is one of the more difficult aspects of financial astrology, after one has decided whether a particular configuration is either positive or negative. 

While the bulls are on parade here and have clearly gained the upper hand in this market, I still think there is some remaining negative energy from the Uranus ingress.   History tells us that Uranus’ ingresses do not always translate into big declines, of course, but in instance I wonder if the release of energy might have been delayed somewhat by the  approaching conjunction with Mars.  Mars will conjoin Uranus in the first degree of Pisces on Wednesday.   By itself, this conjunction can be a bearish pattern, and when it occurs so close to the actual ingress, it may receive an extra boost of energy.   So there’s still a chance for a sizable decline at some point in the week, perhaps as much as 5% on a single day.  Even if the rally somehow continues early on, I think the week should be negative overall.  With Venus ending its retrograde cycle on Friday, we are likely at the end of this fast rising bear market rally.  It is interesting to recall that the rally began very close to the time that Venus went retrograde on March 6.  Now that the cycle is ending, we will likely see the market consolidate at lower levels over the next few weeks.  With Mercury turning retrograde in aspect to Rahu in early May, we may in fact see even lower prices then.  Let’s see how low we go here.   If it’s only a garden variety 3-4% correction by next Monday the 20th, then the extent of the overall decline may be more modest.

I think there is a chance for a big rally in the dollar here, with crude falling back quite a bit.  Gold seems harder to read, but the Sun falling under the aspect of Saturn in the GLD natal chart suggests some late week bearishness.
 

Last week stocks extended their rally into a fourth week adding another 3%.  After Monday’s steep sell off, the bulls returned to the trough and pushed up the Dow above 8000 closing at 8017 while the S&P finished at 842.  Indian markets also rose as ended above some important resistance levels as the Nifty closed at 3211 and the Sensex at 10,348.   While I was bearish for last week, I left open the possibility that the negative fallout from the Mars-Saturn aspect may well manifest this week instead.  Also, I did call for weakness early on which was somewhat fulfilled in Monday’s pullback.  The midweek recovery was also within the boundary of my forecast given the bullishness of the Venus-Jupiter aspect. 

So despite having underestimated the strength of this rally, I think a downside bias makes more sense this week.  Besides the Mars-Saturn opposition aspect, the Sun is also part of that alignment around 22-23 degrees.  In addition, Uranus changes signs this weekend as it moves into sidereal Pisces (according to the Lahiri ayanamsha) so this may act as an amplifier for prevailing market sentiment.  Uranus is the planet of sudden and explosive energy, and its sign changes often correlate with significant events and big market swings.  Uranus changed signs on October 17, 1987 just two days before the world markets had their biggest single-day decline.  Seven years later on February 6, 1994, Uranus changed signs again this time entering Capricorn.  This occurred just two days after the markets lost between 5-8% worldwide. Of course, the correlation is not perfect as there are many occasions when a Uranus ingress did not coincide with a major market move.  Nonetheless, it is a potential factor to include in our analysis and given the pattern in the sky at the moment, it increases the likelihood for some kind of significant sell off.  The larger symbolism of Uranus entering Pisces may also indicate some fundamental changes occurring in areas ruled by Pisces.  These may reflect the return of the welfare state and more socialistic government policies given Pisces connection with compassion and caring.  

Gold looks pretty bearish here, as does crude oil.  I expect the dollar to resume its bounce this week.

Week of March 30 – April 3

Stocks extended their rally for a third week last week as a growing number of investors believed that the worst was over and that a new bull phase has begun.  In New York the Dow climbed to 7776 and the S&P to 815.  In Mumbai, the rally was even stronger as the key indices approached some key resistance levels on prices last seen in early January.  The Nifty closed Friday at 3108 and the Sensex at 10,048.   This bullishness has lasted longer than I expected and reflects the fact that passing aspects alone do not fully coincide with the movements of markets.   In retrospect, the February New Moon in Aquarius on February 24 may have contained a clue to this rally through the close conjunction of Mercury and Jupiter in that chart.  In fact, I noted that the chart looked favourable for stocks in March in my weekly forecast at the time. As good as the chart looked,  I never expected the March rally to be so strong.

With Mars fast approaching Saturn, this rally is on the verge of turning, and may have already by virtue of Friday’s down day in New York.  The Sun conjoins Mercury late on Monday as both planets leave Saturn-ruled Uttara Bhadra and enter Mercury-ruled Revati.  The net effect of these patterns is not clear, however.  Mercury can sometimes get a boost from the Sun if other factors are supportive.  By itself, the Sun is malefic and combusts planets it comes into contact with, so there is a risk that this may push prices lower, especially since Mercury is debilitated in Pisces.  The Revati influence is perhaps more clearly negative since it is ruled by a fallen Mercury. Some midweek strength may result from the harmonic contact between two benefics, Venus and Jupiter.  Since this is a partial strength aspect (they are conjunct in the D8 Ashtamsha chart) the positive effects may be fairly modest.  The late week looks more negative as Mercury forms a tense 150 degree aspect with Saturn and Mars moves closer the to Saturn aspect, which comes exact on Saturday.  

I note also that the Mars and Saturn opposition this week will aspect the Venus-Mars conjunction in the Houck USA chart on April 1 and 6.  An affliction to natal Venus can mean sudden (Mars) loss (Saturn) of money (Venus) that one might associate with a stock market decline, while the affliction to the natal Mars may indicate some significant military action or other expression of violence.   I see that the head of GM, Rick Wagoner, has now been asked to step down by Obama, so that also fits with the symbolism of an afflicted Venus, which represents vehicles.  This may prove to be a difficult week for the auto industry.

Gold may move higher this week with some nice aspects in the GLD chart.  Crude oil looks like it will eventually move lower by week’s end.   Dollar recovery to likely continue.

Week of March 23 – 27

Stocks moved higher last week, fueled in part by the Fed’s plan to buy treasuries and loosen up the credit market.  After peaking on Wednesday near 800, the S&P closed Friday at 768 while the Dow ended the day at 7278.   Mumbai managed to avoid much of the late week selling pressure as the Sensex closed at 8966 and the Nifty at 2807.  I thought we would see more of a decline with the Mercury-Jupiter-Saturn alignment, although the US market did fall in the two days following it.  Interesting that the Mars-Pluto aspect on Wednesday did coincide with a significant financial event, namely the Fed’s buy back plan.   Tuesday’s rise could be attributed to the Mercury-Jupiter aspect that preceded the Saturn aspect.  Rather than have Saturn’s negative influence ‘bleed backwards’ and contaminate benefics Mercury and Jupiter, the orb was far enough that Mercury and Jupiter could strengthen each other, if only temporarily.

This week appears to have some potentially negative influences that may make it difficult for the market to add to recent gains. On Monday, the Sun is in a square aspect with Pluto.  This may indicate some tension and struggle surrounding large organizations and government.   Also, the Moon is conjunct both Mars and Neptune, another potentially difficult transit that carries overtones of secrecy or illusion.  One wonders if the Geithner plan to deal with the toxic banking assets may somehow embody some of these forces.  Given the planets involved, there is some reason to think that the plan will not be well received.  Tuesday sees Mars in harmonic aspect with Rahu, perhaps indicating an excess of energy or an action that is somehow out of control, with possible damaging consequences.  Thursday features the New Moon at 12 degrees of sidereal Pisces.  Given the close aspect from unpredictable Ketu, this New Moon chart may indicate a lot of volatility for the next few weeks.  On Friday, the Sun conjoins retrograde Venus, now in an even closer aspect from Ketu.  While it’s possible this may coincide with higher prices as perhaps the unbounded quality of Ketu may unleash a flurry of buying on baseless optimism, but it seems more likely to translate into selling. 

Week of March 16 – 20

Stocks rose sharply last week on new hope for the viability of the US banking sector, as the Dow ended Friday at 7223 and the S&P at 756.  In Mumbai, stocks also posted substantial gains in the holiday-shortened week as the Sensex closed at 8756 and the Nifty at 2719.  The gain was largely in keeping with our astrological expectations given the benefic influences of the Sun-Uranus conjunction and the Venus-Jupiter aspect.  An added bullish element could be found in the favourable overlay that these aspects created in the relevant natal charts.  In the Mumbai NSE chart, for example, the Sun-Uranus conjunction at 28 Aquarius was in exact trine aspect with the Jupiter at 28 Libra.

This week Saturn once again finds itself the centre of attention as Mercury makes its exact opposition aspect to it on Wednesday, while Jupiter is just one degree from forming an exact 6th house aspect with Saturn.   While the complexity and uncertainty of astrology often precludes clear causal statement, any alignment that contains Saturn tends to promote fear and pessimism and hence declines are more likely.   Another possible bearish influence is the Sun’s entrance into sidereal Pisces on March 14.  Pisces is ruled by Jupiter and since Jupiter is currently debilitated in Capricorn, this may weaken the Sun’s ability to boost sentiment and inspire confidence.  On Wednesday, Mars forms a close 3rd house aspect with Pluto and this may add and extra dose of energy and desire to traders.  By itself, it is a neutral aspect that can either be positive or negative for the markets.  It may indicate higher volumes and could be associated with a larger market move as investors may feel a greater sense of urgency to enter or exit their positions.

Week of March 9 -13

Stocks kept falling last week over continuing questions surrounding the viability of the financial sector.  The Dow broke through 7000 and closed Friday at 6626 while the S&P ended at 683.  In Mumbai, the Nifty retested its October lows and ended down 5% to close at 2620 while the Sensex stood at 8325.  This results are largely in keeping with expectations with the likely fallout from the approaching Venus retrograde station in tense aspect with Saturn.  

Wednesday’s gains in New York deserve special mention here for bucking the down trend.  Certainly, the close harmonic aspect between Sun and Venus had the potential for boosting sentiment, although it was something of an open question whether it might manifest Tuesday when Jupiter was also in the mix.  Interestingly, the Moon was in Mars-ruled Mrigashira on Wednesday, while Mars was transiting its own nakshatra of Dhanista.  This is a favourable combination that may have been a factor in the rise.  By Thursday, the Moon had moved into Rahu-ruled Ardra and the selling resumed.  For its part, Rahu was in Moon-ruled Shravana, and while the exchange of lords is often seen as fortuitous, in this case we may speculate whether such an exchange could still generate optimism given the difficult condition of Rahu in Capricorn.

With the Venus station now behind us, there is a good prima facie case for some kind of rebound here.  The Sun-Uranus conjunction comes exact on Thursday and this should provide a lot of new, restless energy that could increase volumes.   Since the conjunction is occurring in Uranian-ruled Aquarius, that is a possible positive indicator to this contact that could translate into higher prices.  Another potentially favourable influence on the markets is the 3rd house aspect (sextile) between Venus and Jupiter on Wednesday.  The Moon moves into harmonic alignment with this aspect on Thursday (EDT) so it’s possible that the bulk of the bullish trend may be confined towards the end of the week.    Nonetheless, Wednesday’s Moon looks favourable by another metric since will be in Sun-ruled Uttara Phalguni while the Sun is moving away from Saturn towards Uranus in Jupiter-ruled Purva Bhadra.  Before then, the market may be more tentative.  On Monday, the Moon is in Magha while Ketu is in Pushyami.  Whatever other influences that may be effective at that time, that particular situation is not very supportive of prices.

With Mercury and Mars still remaining to oppose Saturn, one can’t be overly confident that the market is prepared to rally substantially from here. Even if this week is positive, the market will be prone to more sideways movement and pullbacks over the next few weeks.
 

Week of March 2 – 6

US markets sank further into the quicksand of this bear market last week as stocks fell another 4% as the Dow finished at 7062  and the S&P closed at 735.  Mumbai fared better than most world markets last week and managed to eke out modest gains as the Nifty closed at 2763  and the Sensex at 8891.  While the Dow managed to stay above the psychologically important 7000 mark, the S&P fell unceremoniously below its November low and is now at 12-year lows.   While I had expected the early week bearishness, the New Moon was not as positive as I had thought so the end of the week saw markets down again.

Now we’re facing the prospect of a Venus retrograde station at 21 Pisces that is in a tense 6th house aspect with Saturn at 24 Leo.  Add to that the Jupiter-Saturn 6th house aspect that will come exact March 23, and the minor aspect between Saturn and Pluto on March 11, and it’s a fairly bleak picture.  These are configurations involving slower moving bodies so we can’t take the dates of their exactitude as necessarily indicative of the dates of their maximum impact. They have to be triggered by faster moving planets that complete the pattern.  There are several possible triggers here including the Sun opposing Saturn and Mercury and Mars conjoining Neptune this week and then Mercury and Mars opposing Saturn in mid March and early April respectively.  The markets may manage some gains this week due to the harmonic aspects of Sun and Jupiter and Mercury will transit through the Jupiter-ruled section of Dhanista on Monday.   Overall, however, it seems like a bearish situation. From a nakshatra perspective, Mercury moves into the Saturn-ruled section of Dhanista Tuesday and Wednesday.  And then Jupiter will move into the presumably bearish Ketu ruled portion of Shravana for Thursday and Friday.

This pattern has a certain ominous portent here that makes me wonder if something fairly big is right around the corner.  There is a real possibility for a major move down with all these Saturn patterns coming together.

Week of February 23 – 27

Stocks in New York continued to swoon last week on the growing alarm over the government’s inability to fix the banking system, as the Dow fell to its lowest level in 6 years closing at 7365.  The S&P did not break below its November lows (752) however, and closed Friday at 770.  Mumbai was also sharply lower last week as the major indexes fell 8%.  Indian markets have fared considerably better than American markets since the original Fall decline and are still trading above their January lows.  On Friday, the Sensex closed at 8843 and the Nifty at 2736. My sense that last week’s five planet alignment involving malefics Mars, Rahu and Ketu was going to be problematic for the market was largely borne out by the 6-8% decline.  While I was somewhat unsure what the immediate impact of this pattern might be, I thought that proximity of the Mercury-Saturn aspect later on in the week would be enough to push prices down generally. Certainly, the markets have been hit by a new wave of bearishness in the wake of the lunar eclipse of Feb 9.   Eclipses are famously bearish for stocks and the recent down move has proven this notion correct yet again.

I’m more optimistic about this week, however, as the Aquarius New Moon on Tuesday looks decidedly better than the previous one in Capricorn.  Given that the New Moon chart governs the next 4 weeks, this means we may well be near an interim bottom here.  Mercury conjoins Jupiter on Tuesday which ought to provide some support although with Mars moving into closer quincunx aspect to Saturn on the weekend, any gains made this week are unlikely to get very far.  So the week may be fairly mixed with some more selling early on with more buyers coming back by midweek.   I’m not ruling out a down week, but any declines should be fairly modest.

Gold finally reached $1000 on Friday which was in keeping with expectations.  Monday may be a possible high as the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction will conjoin with the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart.   I’m not sure that gold has much higher to go here, although the next couple of months could conceivably go either way. The summer looks more decidedly negative as the nodes will afflict several key points in the GLD chart.  Until then, it may be a tug of war between the positive effects of transiting Jupiter on the natal Venus and MC and the Saturn square to natal Mars in the Futures chart. 

Week of February 16 – 20

Investors gave a collective thumbs down to the Geithner bank plan as stocks retreated 5% in New York last week with the Dow falling to 7850 and the S&P to 826.  I thought markets might be more bullish,  but stocks seemed to slide right after Monday ‘s afflicted lunar eclipse. So the US markets seemed to be in negative space with all the heavy Jupiter representation in the nakshatra sublordships.  This implications of the Rahu affliction to Jupiter was left as an open question, and we saw some confirmation of that bearish hypothesis. 

This week features a very rare symmetrical configuration in the sky with a triple conjunction of Mars-Rahu-Jupiter at 15 Capricorn and then Venus at 15 Pisces in exact harmonic aspect with the Capricorn conjunction and Ketu at 15 Cancer.  This kind of five planet alignment has never occurred in modern times and so extrapolating market effects is somewhat more difficult than usual.  Certainly there is a a mix of benefic and malefic energies that complicates the picture.   Even if we see a big gain early on here, I think the bears will return in force soon enough as the market seems destined to move lower.

Mumbai markets rose 3% last week on optimism that Asian economies would respond to various stimulus packages. This was broadly in keeping with our expectations as the approaching Jupiter-Rahu conjunction created more positive sentiment in India than in the US.  Part of the reason for the different outcomes of this alignment was due to the fact that Jupiter was in close harmonic aspect with the ascendant of the NSE chart, hence the more positive outcome there.

The Mars-Jupiter-Rahu-Venus-Ketu alignment early in the week may produce a big move, perhaps in reaction to the Indian budget.  The overall mood seems more negative, however, so any gains here are unlikely to last long.

Week of February 9 – 13

After being in the doldrums for most of the week, US markets rallied towards the end of the week on hopes for a speedy passage of the stimulus package and the bank plan and closed up 4% on the week.  After trading below 7900 at the open Thursday,. the Dow closed Friday at 8280 and the SPX at 868.   I had thought the Saturn-Uranus aspect might provide more down energy now, but with such slow moving planets it is sometimes harder to identify the necessary triggering planet and predict when their negative energy will be released.   For example, the first exact Saturn-Uranus opposition on November 4 coincided with a rise.  It is worth noting, however, that the market did fall in the days following the aspect.  Also the market made a significant low the week prior on October 27. So even with some of the declines we saw in late January, I would argue that the bearishness of this aspect has yet to be fully expressed.  It may require the Mars aspect in late February to bring it out and for the markets to move lower.

This week there are a few interesting patterns including a lunar eclipse on Monday which may increase trading volumes and intraday swings.  The eclipse pattern seems negative given the close harmonic aspect with Saturn, but I think we may move somewhat higher this week, at least in the early going before the Sun moves into sidereal Aquarius.  One thing I will be watching is the effect of Jupiter moving from Rahu’s to Jupiter’s portion of Shravana.   Given Rahu’s current conjunction with Jupiter, one could see how the market might get support from Jupiter receiving this Rahu energy.  And yet now that Jupiter is transiting through its own section of the nakshatra (until Feb 15), there could be a change in attitudes towards wealth (Jupiter).  It is worth noting that last week’s rise came during the Sun’s transit of the Rahu portion of Dhanista.  The Sun will be in Jupiter’s sub of Dhanista Monday and then Saturn for Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Mumbai lost a bit of ground last week as the rally only arrived on Friday.  After bouncing up from 2760 a couple of times earlier in the week, the Nifty ended the week at 2843 and the Sensex at 9300.  Aside from the unfulfilled downside energy from the Saturn-Uranus opposition, one of the interesting features of last week’s action was the abrupt shift in sentiment from Thursday to Friday.   Using the Nakshatra lord and sublord paradigm, we can find several changes, any one of which might have been involved in the move from bearish to bullish.   Mercury transited from the Mars to the Rahu section of Uttarashada, hence increasing the plausibly positive energy available to market participants.  At the same time, Mars moved from Mercury to Ketu’s portion of Uttarashada. While Ketu is nominally negative for material endeavours, Ketu does come under the favourable aspect of Jupiter now, so it may not be as bearish as it may first appear.  Finally, the Sun transited from Moon-ruled Shravana to Mars-ruled Dhanista between Thursday and Friday.    Shravana is a very changeable nakshtra due to the constantly shifting influences upon its ruler, the Moon.  But currently Mars may be interpreted as more positive given its exaltation in Capricorn and its approaching conjunction with Jupiter and Rahu. Further study of Mars’ energy may shed more light on its effects in its transit of Capricorn over the next few weeks.

This week the market seems poised to go higher as the US stimulus package moves closer to becoming law.  Optimism may be overflowing this week as Jupiter finally conjoins Rahu on Friday.  And yet much depends on the effect of the various planetary transits to Jupiter-controlled nakshatras.  Jupiter is debilitated in Capricorn and the influence of Rahu can make for sudden changes and reversals.   The late week looks more negative as transiting Mercury comes close to the malefic 8th house cusp in the Nifty natal chart.

Week of Feb 2 – 6

Stocks in New York followed a sisyphean trajectory last week as an early rally culminated in Wednesday’s high only to fall back by Friday below last week’s close.  The Dow closed at 8000 and the SPX ended at 825.  I had thought the early week could be more negative with the Mercury Rx-Mars conjunction but it seems only to have increased the energy available to market participants rather than move the market in any particular direction.  Its placement in Sun-ruled Uttarashada may be shaped the outcome as the Sun is under the presumed influence of Rahu and Jupiter in Capricorn.  While Rahu is disruptive by itself, its current conjunction with Jupiter can produce acquisitiveness and buying. Overall, the market was slightly negative.

This week should see continued volatility as Saturn exactly opposes Uranus on Thursday with a t-square with the Moon forming during trading hours EST .  There is a potential for a short rally before then, perhaps Monday or Tuesday when Moon is in Aries while its dispositor Mars is exalted in Capricorn.  Tuesday’s Moon has the added positive feature of being in Venus-ruled Bharani which is also currently exalted in Pisces.   By Friday, Venus will square Pluto and combined with Saturn-Uranus opens the door to a possible return down to current support levels of Dow 7900 and SPX 805.   Feburary and March are shaping up quite negatively so the only question is whether the November lows of 7400/750 will hold.  I think they won’t.

Mumbai bounced back last week as markets rallied 7% with the Sensex closing Friday at 9424 and the Nifty at 2874. The extent of the upside surprised me, mostly because I did not expect the early week gains on the Mercury Mars conjunction.  As strong as the rally was, I don’t think it changes the fundamental direction of the market down.  This week should see averages somewhat lower by Friday although if the early week gains come to pass, then the overall decline could be minimal or even be flat.   Monday and Tuesday will see the now forward moving Mercury in  a helpful aspect with the natal Jupiter in the NSE chart.  This may give some support to prices.  In addition to the difficult transit patterns that will build up by late week, Mercury will be sitting on the 12th house cusp of the Sensex natal chart.   On Friday, the Moon will transit Ardra, a particularly difficult nakshatra.  These are bearish influences that could bring down prices sharply.

Gold extended its recent gains last week as it closed at $928.  While some retracement down did occur early on, prices resumed their upward climb following the Sun-Rahu conjunction.  This week may see a couple of down days as Mars aspects Ketu in the GLD chart, but gold seems likely to continue to rise at least for the duration of the Sun’s transit of Capricorn until Feb 12 and perhaps several days beyond.   Gold may only begin to fall significantly in March once the Venus retrograde cycle has started. (Mar 6).  So even if it tops out around $1000 in the next two weeks, the Venus retrograde period will return it back below $800.  

Forecast for week of Jan 26 – 30

US stocks took another beating last week as fears about the viability of the banking sector continued to rattle investors.  The feel-good Obama inauguration failed to boost sentiment as the Dow lost over 2% on the week and ended Friday at 8077 with the S&P at 831.   I had thought the Sun-Mercury-Jupiter conjunction might have provided the necessary lift for some kind of a brief rally but in the end Mercury’s motion away from the positive influence of Jupiter limited the available optimism. Tuesday’s loss coincided with Mercury’s conjunction with the Sun, which gives support to the notion that planetary combustion is clearly a malefic influence.

This week looks action-packed, as we have the solar eclipse on Monday and the Mercury-Mars conjunction on Tuesday, along with Venus’ ingress into Pisces.   While the eclipse configuration has the imprint of both Jupiter and Saturn, I think the overall effect will be negative and underlines the probability that we are headed lower over the coming weeks.   The early part of the week may see sharp declines with the possibility of some recovery by Friday.

Indian markets were also strongly negative last week with the Nifty falling to 2678 and the Sensex at 8674.  Tuesday and Wednesday saw the markets fall over 6% at the time of the Sun-Mercury conjunction.   That conjunction occurred at 6 Capricorn formed a harmonic aspect with the malefic Mars-Rahu square in the NSE chart and should be seen as a possible signature for the depth of the decline in Mumbai.

With Monday’s holiday closing, most of the action this week will occur Tuesday.  The Mercury-Mars conjunction occurs at 11.40  a.m. IST.  While not necessarily negative in itself, the latent Saturn influence on the conjunction has the potential to push markets over the edge.  We could see more significant declines there with only a small chance of recovery later on.  Friday may be the best day as the Moon and Venus conjoin in early Pisces near the 10th house cusp of the NSE chart and near the 4th house cusp in the Nifty chart.  I think most of the movement in the coming weeks will be on the downside.

Crude oil and Gold both rose sharply last week, mostly due to the Sun-Jupiter conjunction.  The Sun received Jupiter’s optimism and therefore Gold rose to $895 on Friday.  Oil rose because its dispositor is also the Sun, since Saturn is currently in the sign of Leo.  I think the rally in crude may continue this week although the rise may be more muted.  Gold seems to be at the end of its recent rally and with the Jupiter’s influence behind it, the Sun now has to contend with the conjunction with Rahu on Wednesday.  By Friday, I think gold should be down significantly from its highs.

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Stocks fell another 4% in New York last week a growing number of investors realized that the recession will likely last through all of 2009.   After touching 8000 on Thursday, the Dow rebounded Friday and ended the week at 8281, while the S&P ended at 850.  Both indexes are below their 50 day moving average now as the the market ponders the fork in the road: to reach the technical safety of higher ground or to sink back down to the November lows.  Certainly, the pessimism from the Mercury-Saturn aspect last week had the desired effect as sentiment fell very close to when the aspect came exact.  And it is also possible to see how the late week turn higher reflects the tug of war between Rahu and Jupiter over the affections of Mercury.  As long as retrograde Mercury was closer to the disruptive influence of Rahu, the market sold off.  Once Mercury was closer to benefic Jupiter, the market shook off the blues and pushed higher.

With US markets closed Monday and the Obama inauguration on Tuesday, there will  be compressed time frame for trading this week.  Overall, I think the chances for a big rally are very good as Sun, Mercury and Jupter conjoin in Uttarashada.  This nakshatra is ruled by the Sun, so having that doubly helpful influence on the nakshatra lord should give an extra boost to sentiment.  The Sun-Jupiter conjunction comes exact on Friday and may well mark the approximate end of this mini-rally. In addition, Venus is conjoining Uranus this week, and comes exact on Thursday so that may provide some additional heft to the bullishness.  How high could it go?  Well, I think it’s possible the market may soar as high as Obama’s rhetoric.  The US has been waiting for a new beginning for a long time, and the incoming Obama administration is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to turn the page and start anew. Optimism will rule the day and will likely spill over into the market.  I would not be surprised to see the Dow get to 9500 here.  Next week’s Saturnized solar eclipse may be the proverbial bucket of cold water on the parade, so investors should enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Indian markets were modestly lower after a volatile week in the wake of the Satyam revelations.  After bouncing off lows of 9000, the Sensex ended Friday’s session at 9323, with the Nifty at 2828. The negative action came off more or less according to expectations, as the Mercury-Saturn aspect pushed stocks much lower on Thursday.  I had thought that Wednesday might have been more negative, but perhaps the happy glow from the Moon-Venus aspect was enough to temporarily mask the hardened resignation of Mercury’s sad condition. Friday’s gain also was a little surprising in light of the twin Mars aspects to the NSE chart.   The transiting Moon’s aspect to a fast-strengthening Mercury proved more than enough to counteract the negativity contained in the natal charts.

While the early week may be tentative, I think Mumbai will also move higher this week as the Sun-Jupiter brings its message of optimism and hope back to the market. The Venus-Uranus conjunction will form a nice aspect to the natal Jupiter in the NSE chart so that is additional support the rally hypothesis here.  The Sun-Jupiter conjunction does not form any obvious aspects to this natal chart but that may not matter.  Thursday may be a possible down day as the Moon squares Saturn in the afternoon.   However, even that bearish indicator may be pushed to the side with the presence of Venus in aspect to Saturn.  There is a potential for a big lift here, perhaps to Nifty 3000 and 10,000 on the Sensex.

The rally in stocks this week will probably push crude oil temporarily higher.  The US dollar is likely to take a pounding this week, so that may provide some support for gold.  Paradoxically, gold seems prone to a steep decline here as the Sun-Jupiter conjunction falls in a delicate area of the GLD chart.   This is likely to take hold towards the end of the week or perhaps early next week.
 

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Market Forecast for week of January 12 – 16

Markets headed south last week with the approach of Mercury to Rahu and the impending Mercury retrograde cycle as the Dow ended Friday at 8599 and the SPX at 890.   The bearish sentiment was punctuated by a difficult Mercury-Saturn aspect that was in hindsight the more immediate cause of Wednesday’s substantial decline.  The general picture of a shift to pessimism was largely in keeping with our expectations laid out last week. 

With Mercury turning retrograde this weekend, we are entering a zone of transitional energies where Mercury, the planet of trading, is slowing separating from the disruptive influence of Rahu and moving towards the warmer embrace of Jupiter’s optimism.  This shift will take time, and we may see prices fall further this week before they move up again and stage some kind of rally.   Look for some kind of bounce up Monday or Tuesday, after which the market will sell off as Mercury again aspects Saturn and move back down towards 8400/870.  The late week could go either way, but by Friday we may finally see Jupiter’s favourable influence become manifest.  The subsequent rally next week may be short-lived but it could be substantial and return the market to its November highs.  A sharp turn downwards is likely in the last week for a variety of astrological reasons, not the least of which is a solar eclipse on January 26.  This eclipse features several strong aspects, including a close Jupiter conjunction to the Sun and Moon.  Jupiter’s influence is offset by two important factors: 1) a close Saturn aspect to the eclipse point and 2)  a powerful alignment of Venus, Saturn and Uranus straddling the MC-IC. While different interpretations of this configuration are possible, I think the negative outweighs the positive and the Jupiter influence may only manifest as a magnification of the bearish mood.

Mumbai also had a down week as markets sold off sharply in the wake of the Satyam debacle on Wednesday.  The Sensex closed Friday at 9406 and the Nifty at 2873, as the indices once again failed to break through their key resistance levels (Nifty 3150). The Mercury-Saturn aspect was mostly responsible for a sharp sell off, which activated the natal Saturn in the NSE chart.  Overall, markets moved according to expectation, although the downside was somewhat greater than anticipated. Look for the market to move lower this week, after a gain early on, perhaps on Tuesday.  Indian markets may not see the rally begin until next week but it should be fairly strong and push the Nifty above 3000.   It’s possible we could see 3100 again by the 23rd but this seems like a bit of a stretch.  The eclipse of January 26 will likely decisively break the bullish mood.  The eclipse point falls at 12 Capricorn and this will once again activate the NSE Saturn at 12 Aquarius. Given transiting Saturn’s placement in aspect to this degree, it seems likely that Indian markets will head down substantially in the weeks following the eclipse.  A retest of the October lows of Nifty 2525 seems the most likely scenario.

The US dollar gained some ground last week against most currencies as crude oil sold off hard to $41 and gold slipped back to $855. This week looks more equivocal for the dollar and commodities without a strong trend although I would think the dollar remains weakly bullish which means that commodities will trend somewhat lower.
 

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Market Forecast — week of January 5 – 9

US markets staged an impressive rally last week as the Dow powered above the 9000 mark by Friday and finished at 9034 and the S&P at 931.  While I had wondered if the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction might provide enough of a midweek lift for 8800, Friday’s rally was surprising. In retrospect, there some good rationale for the rise given the proximity of the aspect from transiting Jupiter to the natal Sun in the NYSE chart. This aspect comes exact Monday so it’s possible there may be a little more optimism left to be expressed although I think it is not at all clear with the difficult Mars-Saturn aspect on Monday.  As the Jupiter aspect runs out of juice, we will see more profit taking, with Thursday and Friday perhaps being more clearly negative.   Overall, I think the mood will shift to bearish this week, particularly with the approach of the Mercury retrograde station on Saturday the 10th.  This station will bring volatility and uncertainty in the markets due to the close conjunction with unpredictable Rahu (North Lunar Node). 

I had thought we’d have a clearer low here below Dow 8400 but now I’m not so sure.  January’s rally may be a very choppy affair with relatively little upside.  10,000 is only a possibility here, with 9600 a more likely target.  The period immediately following the inauguration on the 20th may be the high as Sun conjoins Jupiter.  Look for markets to sink lower in the last week of January as the Mercury retrograde cycle comes to a very bearish end as Mercury will conjoin malefic Mars at that time.  February and March now look like the time when the market will finally go below Dow 8000 before starting a stronger rally for the summer.

Indian markets also rose strongly last week as Indo-Pak tensions eased and the RBI cut interest rates.  The Nifty gained 6% to 3046 and the Sensex closed Friday at 9958.  Again, the upside from the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction wasn’t entirely unexpected but I wished I had surrendered a bit more to the logic of it in last week’s forecast. This week may move the Nifty back below 3000, as Monday may be negative with the Sun-Ketu aspect in the NSE chart.    Some gains are possible by midweek but with the holiday closing Thursday, Friday may see some major selling pressure which pushes markets lower.  It seems that my previous forecast of 2700 on the Nifty may not become a reality this month and may only come to pass in February and March when markets will begin a longer trend down.  The upside in January is likely to be quite limited, and it’s possible that Nifty 3150 may remain a significant resistance level.  Nifty 3500 seems a little too ambitious.   Overall, January looks very changeable with short rallies followed by quick sell offs.

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Market Forecast — week of December 29 – January 2

Stocks in New York declined 2% last week as the tense Saturn-Neptune aspect continued to lurk in the background.  The indexes stubbornly stayed above key support levels as the Dow closed Friday at 8515 and the S&P at 872.  The immediate source of the negativity seemed to come from the Mars-Jupiter aspect as investors remained cautious before Christmas. The New Moon of December 27th suggests a mixed picture for January as malefic Mars-Pluto rises but Venus and Neptune are in exact conjunction.  This is perhaps more evidence that the month to come may feature both a significant decline and a substantial rally.  The optimism and idealism reflected in the Venus-Neptune conjunction is well expressed in the Obama inauguration on January 20.  This will likely coincide will some kind of rise in the markets.

This week Saturn makes its retrograde station on Wednesday at 27 degrees of Leo.   By itself this may not be a bearish influence, but given the Neptune aspect, it takes on a much larger importance.   It is one of the reasons that we’re likely to see more downward pressure on the market over the next week or two.  On Wednesday, there is a conjunction of Mercury and Jupiter which may give some boost to the market, although it is more likely to occur before the aspect becomes exact.

Stocks in Mumbai were in sharp retreat last week as the major indexes fell 7% with the Nifty settling at 2857 and the Sensex at 9328.  Profit taking from the December rally and increased nervousness of the the tensions between India and Pakistan forced stocks lower.  The near term outlook remains negative as Wednesday’s Saturn retrograde station will closely aspect the natal Jupiter in the NSE horoscope.  The New Moon at 12 Sagittarius is in close aspect with natal Saturn which is another bearish indicator for the Indian markets in the coming weeks.

Posted by Christopher Kevill 12/28/2008 10:27:00 PM EST
 

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Market Forecast — week of December 22 – 26

Our bearish forecast notwithstanding, US stocks were mostly unchanged last week as the Dow closed Friday at 8579 and the S&P at 887.  I had thought we would see more downside with the alignment of malefic planets, particularly the Mars-Saturn aspect.  Monday saw stocks fall but they did not come close to even the 8400 support level.  Tuesday’s rally was not unexpected either, as Venus conjoined Rahu.  But the late week decline was also a rather tepid affair as the market remains stuck in a fairly narrow trading range between 8500-9000. 

It’s important to note that the negative energy of the aspect between slow moving Saturn and Neptune has not disappeared.  It is likely to be manifest sometime soon and is awaiting the proper planetary trigger.  I mistakenly though the Sun-Mars would be sufficient, but as always astrology, the science that is not one, is rarely as straightforward as it seems.  This week doesn’t appear to have anything that will break us out of this trading range, although a rally is possible midweek on the Mercury-Venus aspect.  Friday may be a harbinger of steeper declines to come, however, with the approach of the Mars-Pluto conjunction.  Given the violent potential contained within these planets, it is possible this may be related to a geopolitical event that shakes market confidence.   In any event, I think we will likely see the low around the first week of January 2009.

Stocks in Mumbai continued their winning ways last week as the major indices rose 5%.  The Nifty closed at 3077 and the Sensex at 10,099.  The late week Mars transit to the NSE ascendant did not bring declines but rather actually saw some gains.  I’m a little puzzled by this market strength but remained convinced that this is another bear market rally that cannot be trusted to go much higher.  Nifty 3150 seems like a solid resistance level.

While some gains are possible Tuesday or Wednesday, Indian stocks are likely to finish near or slightly below current levels this week.  The Mars-Pluto conjunction early next week has the added feature of exactly aspecting the natal Mars in the Indian independence horoscope.    This is a combination of planetary energies that speaks to sudden or even violent actions that may fall outside of the financial arena.    The natal Mars in the India chart is in the 2nd house of finances however, so the most likely expression of this energy is simply more financial turbulence.  Nonetheless, we should be open to all possibilities.  

I think the US dollar will recover further in the coming weeks, with corresponding losses in gold. 

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 12/21/2008 12:27:00 PM EST

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Market Forecast — week of December 15 – 19

US stocks ended mostly unchanged on the week as the Dow closed Friday at 8629 and the S&P at 879.  The forecast early week rise to 9000 came off more or less as expected, but the decline afterwards was fairly modest.  While Friday’s open took the Dow down towards 8400, the market rallied through the rest of the day, despite the malefic Full Moon configuration and the failure of the auto bailout plan in the Senate.  As Mars perfects its square to Saturn on Monday, it’s hard to imagine the market going much higher this week. Declines would seem to be more in keeping with the planetary energy.  A midweek rise is more likely given the Venus-Rahu conjunction on Tuesday and Wednesday.   Rahu symbolizes acquisitiveness and compulsive behaviour and Venus is connected with money so we may see a strong up day.  Mercury is in aspect with Rahu later in the week, so that could give some investors second thoughts and take the market down again. 

Indian stocks rose 7% last week on hopes that China’s stimulus package would help avoid the worst of the slowdown.  The Nifty closed Friday at 2921 and the Sensex at 9690.  While the early week rise was anticipated, the absence of a late week pullback was something of a disappointment.  I think Mumbai will likely catch up on the downside this week as transiting Mars conjoins the ascendant in the NSE chart.   At least one strong up day is likely, however, so the overall losses may be tempered somewhat.  I think Indian markets are vulnerable to sell offs over the next two weeks as transiting Saturn is coming to its retrograde station on 31 December exactly conjunct the natal Moon in the 8th house in the Sensex chart.  This doesn’t mean the market will be completely negative until that time, but it will probably mean that any rallies will not get far as selling pressure will never be far away.

The US dollar sank a little further last week as the Euro and Gold moved higher.  I think the US dollar will  likely move higher this week, and likely continue to be strong through to the end of the month.

Posted Christopher Kevill at 12/14/2008 12:24:00 PM EST

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Market Forecast — week of December 8 – 12

US Stocks fell 2% last week on the heels of Monday’s triple conjunction of Moon-Venus-Jupiter.  The Dow closed at 8635 while the S&P ended Friday at 876. While I had expected more upside near the time of conjunction, it was a reminder that the energy contained in most aspects lies at the ‘front end’ when the planets are applying and once they come exact the energy dissipates very quickly. As it turned out the Venus-Jupiter conjunction perfected in the overnight hours Monday (EST) and not even the approach of the Moon midday was enough to revive positive sentiment.  Overseas markets started to fall very close to the time of the Venus-Jupiter conjunction.  Once the Moon had perfected its aspect to both Venus and Jupiter, the market decline accelerated. 

I think markets are headed into a minefield this week with the approaching Sun-Mars-Saturn-Neptune alignment.  While some early week gains are possible on the sidereal ingresses of Mercury and Jupiter into Sagittarius and Capricorn respectively, markets will likely move significantly lower from these levels. One complicating factor is that the Sun will not be in exact alignment with Saturn until Saturday, which may lessen the level of negative energy on Friday.  Friday still looks very negative as does next Monday when Mars will be in aspect to Saturn.  It seems likely that we will see the Dow fall below 8000 here.

Indian markets also declined last week as the indices lost 1% with the Sensex closing at 8965 and the Nifty at 2714.  Mercury conjoins the ascendant of the NSE chart on Monday so that should ensure a nice gain then.  With Tuesday’s holiday closing, it’s harder to see much upside for the rest of the week.  Transiting Rahu is in tense aspect with the natal Sun-Venus conjunction in the NSE chart so that bodes very poorly for Indian markets over the coming two weeks.  A retest of the late October lows is likely. 

This is shaping up a potentially tumultuous week in the global financial system as I expect the US dollar to spike on its safe haven status while gold and oil will continue to fall.  But there’s a good chance that there will be some kind of lasting bottom formed in the coming days that will be the launching point for a rally in early 2009.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 12/07/2008 12:45:00 PM EST

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Market Forecast for week of December 1 – 5

Stocks in New York rallied over 10% last week amidst a growing sense that a solid bottom was reached the week previous at 7400.  The Dow ended the holiday-shortened week at 8829 while the S&P closed at 896.  The rally was largely expected although I had thought we might see more declines later in the week.  As it happened, the potential negativity contained within the Moon’s transit of Scorpio was offset by the approaching conjunction of benefics Venus and Jupiter.

Monday’s triple conjunction of Moon-Venus-Jupiter may coincide with a big rise as the rally enters a more difficult phase.  The Sun and Mars will conjoin at 20 degrees of Scorpio on Friday and this may also shift sentiment away from rehabilitated optimism to a more jittery and alarmist orientation.  The coming Saturn-Neptune aspect will likely bring back a significant amount of fear and pessimism to the market.  In addition, the New Moon of November 27 was quite afflicted and also suggests that December will not be kind to equities.   Although the Venus-Jupiter conjunction is fairly close in that chart, Mercury is in a tighter conjunction with Mars and both are aspected by unstable Ketu.  This suggests that prices will be volatile through December with sudden ups and downs.  To make matters worse, the New Moon in New York features Neptune rising with Saturn in the 8th house of obstacles.  This is additional evidence that the markets will see a significant move down this month, perhaps revisiting Dow 7400 or even going below it.

Indian markets made more modest gains last week as the terror attacks in Mumbai shut markets on Thursday.  While I had expected higher prices in the early going, stocks ended the week fairly close to forecast levels.  The Nifty ended Friday’s session at 2755 while the Sensex closed at 9092.  The rally will likely be extended this week as the Venus-Jupiter conjunction occurs almost exactly on the natal Uranus of the NSE chart in the 2nd house of wealth. A very rapid rise is possible so Nifty 3000 seems quite doable here. The rally is unlikely to last very long, however, Saturn is moving into a particularly dominant position in the NSE chart.  As already noted, the New Moon of November 27 is not a good chart.  Moreover, in Mumbai, the New Moon occurred with malefic and unpredictable Ketu rising.   While Ketu can simply mean quick and sudden actions, it is also very much an anti-materialist energy that is often at odds with higher stock prices.  With Mercury conjunct Mars in this chart, it presents a fairly bleak picture for stocks in December.  The only question is how low will they go.  I think a retest of Nifty 2525 is inevitable, and stocks will likely trade well below that level for a time.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 11/30/2008 05:13:00 PM EST

Market Forecast for week of November 24 – 28

Stocks markets worldwide continued their downward spiral last week amidst the growing sense that the recession will be a long and painful one. Despite Friday’s impressive rally on the news of Timothy Geithner’s appointment as Obama’s Treasury Secretary, the Dow was off 5% for the week and closed at 8046 while the S&P stood at 800.  On Thursday, the Dow retested its 2002 lows of 7400 while the S&P revisited lows set back in 1996.  While I had expected a possible retest, I thought the markets might be content with Dow 8000 and then bounce back from there.  I also mistakenly thought the low for the week would occur earlier, in advance of the perfecting of the Jupiter-Saturn aspect. As it turned out it was only the day the aspect perfected, Friday, that saw the market turnaround. 

This market is clearly on its last legs of this phase of the bear market.  With the passing of the Jupiter-Saturn aspect, the next major aspect is Saturn-Neptune.  This is a more clearly malefic influence and will likely be felt with full force in December when those two planets are in their closest harmonic resonance.   Despite the gloom that hangs over the market, however, there may well be enough time left for some modest gains over the next week or two, particularly in light of approach of the triple conjunction of benefics Moon, Venus and Jupiter on December 1.   Nonetheless, the market is likely to be extremely volatile during this period so any gains are unlikely to last long and may be confined to intraday highs as skittishness will intensify as time goes on.  It’s possible the Dow could go to 9000 at some point here, but it’s not anything one should put a large stake in.  The Sun and Mercury conjoin on Tuesday so this may well have a hand in some optimistic trading patterns in the early part of  the week. 

Markets in Mumbai followed the rest of the world last week as Dalal Street saw losses of 6%.  Thursday saw a retest of October’s closing lows (2525/7700) but Friday’s rally saved the day as the Nifty closed at 2693 and the Sensex at 8915.  As the world slips deeper into recession, there will be no escape for Indian markets from December’s decline.  In the meantime some modest gains are possible this week but they will be fleeting.  Even with the helpful Sun-Mercury conjunction on Tuesday, the Moon’s transit of Scorpio, its sign of debilitation, late in the week may bring significant losses.  High volatility in the next two weeks impose limits on any gains.  From a longer term perspective, I am increasingly pessimistic about a market recovery in 2009.  Rallies will occur and they may have considerable force, but they are very unlikely to return the market to levels seen in the first half of 2008.  This is not a good time to own stocks for the long haul as it may be years before they return to 2008 levels.

With the ongoing turbulence last week, crude oil sold off sharply and even traded below $50.  While some bounce back is possible this week, crude is headed lower into December, probably below $40.  Gold rallied nicely last week to $800 and things continue to look quite positive for gold as the Sun transits Anuradha this week and into the early part of next week.  I expect it to climb higher.  The US dollar once again was the beneficiary of fear in the market as it rose against most currencies.  The Euro managed to hold its own at 1.26, however, and it may gain a cent or two here before heading down sharply in December.  The Rupee lost ground last week closing at 49.9 and is going to be on shaky ground for the next month or so and may trade in the 52 range.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 11/23/2008 03:01:00 PM EST
 

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Weekly Forecast — week of November 17 – 21

Stocks slumped 5% worldwide last week on continuing fears that the recession may be deeper than first thought. Despite an impressive rally Thursday in New York following an apparent retest of Dow 8000, the market slipped back Friday as the Dow closed at 8497 and the SPX at 873.  I had expected more of rally last week on the basis of the favourable Jupiter-Uranus aspect but it seems that the hangover effects of the preceding week’s Saturn-Uranus opposition still carried the day.

I think markets are likely to be shaky in the early part of the week on the heels of Saturn’s aspect to Mercury on Monday.  I would not be surprised to see yet another retest of Dow 8000 then.  Stocks are likely to improve significantly as the week progresses as Mercury joins the Sun and Mars in Scorpio.  Venus’ ingress into Purvashada will also be supportive of sentiment as Jupiter’s aspect to Saturn perfects on Friday.  Depending on how low we go early on, we could end the week at or above current levels. 

In Mumbai, markets also succumbed to pessimism as the major indices failed to hold onto early gains that put them over key psychological levels of 10,000 on the Sensex and 3000 on the Nifty.  The Sensex closed Friday at 9385 and the Nifty at 2810.  Monday should be quite negative but look for a reversal Tuesday or Wednesday as transiting Mercury conjoins the natal Jupiter in the NSE chart.  Friday looks quite favourable as the Moon transits Purva Phalguni while its lord Venus lords over Purvashada.  Barring some catastrophic meltdown in the early part of the week, Indian markets should finish higher than current levels.

The Euro slipped back to 1.26 last week the bearishness in stocks pushed investors to once again seek safe haven in the US dollar.  I think there could be more weakness at the start of the week, perhaps under 1.25, but look for the Euro to recover by week’s end as Venus conjoins the natal Sun in the Euro chart. We should see a similar pattern in the Rupee which also lost ground last week and closed at 48.8.  Early trading may push it above 50 but looks for strengthening by Friday at least back to current levels and then some. 

Crude oil fell sharply last week and opens Monday at $57.  With Sun and Mercury transiting the 6th house of the Futures chart, more declines are likely early in the week, and we will likely see $55 easily broken.  Some bounce is likely by Friday so we return to current levels or slightly above.  Crude prices will likely continue to weaken through December, however, as transiting Ketu aspects natal Jupiter

Gold made some modest gains to $742 last week, just as the Sun was leaving Libra, its sign of debilitation.  I think gold is likely to move higher this week as the Sun is joined by Mercury in Scorpio after midweek. 

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 11/16/2008 04:45:00 PM EST

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US stocks fell 4% last week on a post-election sell off as the Dow closed at 8943 and the SPX at 930.  I had expected a negative week on the basis of the Saturn-Uranus opposition, but was somewhat disappointed that the decline wasn’t bigger.  In retrospect, the market saw gains when the Venus-Saturn-Uranus alignment was most exact, so that it another reminder that the exactitude of transit aspects should not be given greater importance over other factors.  One could make a better case for the triggering effects of Mercury moving into Rahu-ruled Swati on Wednesday as the explanation for the decline.

This week will see Jupiter (expansion) move into closer harmonic alignment with both Saturn (restriction) and Uranus (sudden energy).  While Jupiter with Uranus often connotes sharp rises, Saturn’s role in this multi-planet alignment may dampen market enthusiasm.  We may also see subtle sentiment shifts in some sectors as both Venus and Mars have just changed signs.  Venus has moved into Sagittarius to join Jupiter and this may assist the consumer sector in a general way.  Mars has now entered Scorpio, a sign it rules, and should therefore be regarded as a stronger planet.  Of course, strength alone is neither positive or negative for the market, but can indicate that Mars has a greater say in market direction.  By virtue of entering Scorpio, Mars has now moved into a tense alignment with Saturn and Uranus which now occupy signs 4 signs away.  This aspect is still far from being exact so it would be mistaken to ascribe too much influence to it.  As the aspect becomes more exact, we can expect the negative side of Mars to be expressed through declines.  For the moment, though, it seems relatively unafflicted, so it is unlikely to push prices down.  Another potentially significant aspect this week is the conjunction of Venus and Pluto that occurs on Wednesday.  Venus can be seen to represent money in this case, while Pluto symbolizes power and control.  On the face of it, this may be a bullish influence for the market.  However, sudden falls following the conjunction are common, and indeed one cannot assume that they will correspond exactly to the moment of conjunction itself.

Against my expectations, Indian stocks rose last week as the Sensex closed at 9964 and the Nifty at 2973.  While prices did fall towards the end of the week, I was surprised by the extent of early week rise.   Market movements reflected the NSE horoscope quite well as markets fell Wednesday and Thursday as transiting Sun conjoined the natal Rahu.  While I did not foresee Friday’s rise, it was also plausibly indicated through transiting Venus conjoining the NSE ascendant.  My error was in ascribing too much influence to the simultaneous transit of Mars to the 12th house cusp of this chart.  With transiting Ketu moving away from the natal Mars, it is not unreasonable to believe that the worst losses of the market are now behind us in the short term.  This aspect was exactly conjunct in October when the losses were at their steepest.  Transiting Sun comes to the natal Jupiter this week so some gains seem likely, although perhaps they will be subject to rapid profit taking as Mercury will conjoin malefic Rahu late in the week.

Most global currencies rallied against the US dollar last week as the banking situation normalized and confidence returned.  The Euro even traded above 1.30 earlier in the week and closed Friday’s session at 1.27.  This was much stronger than I had expected.  It seems that the US dollar rally may be over for the short term.  I think more gains are possible this week as the Venus-Pluto conjunction may provide a boost for an acquisitiveness thus boosting demand in local currencies. The Rupee is also likely to benefit from this improvement in sentiment.

Crude oil fell back to $61 last week as transiting Mars afflicted the ascendant in the Futures chart.  As Mars moves away from this sensitive point, we can expect crude to rise, perhaps sharply.  One possible unknown is that the Venus-Pluto conjunction will occur very close to the natal Ketu-Neptune in the Futures chart. It is possible that this will reflect a negative sentiment towards crude, but Ketu is a very changeable planet and it can be converted, as it were, from a malefic to a benefic if the benefic influences on it predominate.

Gold rose modestly last week as it closed at $738.  Part of the explanation for the gain lay in the aspect between the transiting Sun and the natal Jupiter in the Futures chart.  While this only accounted for perhaps two days’ influence, it may have been enough to temporarily offset the longer term background influence of transiting Ketu on the natal Moon.  Although Ketu remains a negative influence on Gold now, it is possible we may again see a temporary rise this week as transiting Mercury now falls under the benefic influence of the natal Jupiter.   Perhaps more than usual, gold prices will reflect a struggle between Ketu (bearish) and Mercury (bullish).

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Posted by Christopher Kevill at 11/09/2008 03:18:00 PM EST

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Weekly Forecast — week of November 3 – 7

Stocks rose over 10% last week on the belief that the worst of the financial crisis has passed.  In advance of the US election on Tuesday, the Dow opens trading this week at 9325 while the S&P stands at 968.  While I had foreseen some midweek gains last week, I missed the strength of this rally and assumed an earlier beginning to the negative sentiment that will result from the Saturn-Uranus aspect.   I grossly underestimated the positive effect of Venus entering Jyestha on the 27th while its lord Mercury was very strong.  This resulted in a growth in investor confidence and pushed prices higher, albeit on fairly modest volume.

As I have indicated previously, the markets this week will be heavily influenced by the malefic t-square involving Venus, Saturn and Uranus.  The Saturn-Uranus aspect is exact on Tuesday, while Venus forms tense squares with both of these slow moving malefics on Monday.  It’s quite a negative picture, and with the added feature of a nasty and close US election, there is a real possibility for some unexpected developments that could rattle markets.  We also have Mercury in Libra now which therefore draws more negative Saturn energy from its 3rd house aspect to Libra. Moreover, Mercury will move into malefic Swati that is ruled by Rahu on Tuesday evening, just as the polls close.  This suggests that the election may be a significant factor in the market. 

Overall, this week looks very negative, and the only real question is how low it will go and when that low will be reached.  While I think there is a genuine risk of a major 10-15% sell off like we saw in early October, there is a good chance the decline will be more modest.  I think we might see the interim low towards the end of the week, but next week also looks fairly negative, especially towards Friday the 14th. A retest of 7773 is still very much in the cards here, although I am not at all certain we will get there.   It may be more prudent to expect 8100-8500 this week, but much depends on how bad Monday and Tuesday are.  If they are strongly negative and we get down to about 8500 by Tuesday, then a retest becomes more likely in the very near term.   A retest also becomes more of a probable eventuality if something unexpected occurs with the election.   In any event, this may be a good week to contemplate covering outstanding short positions.  Volatility will likely spike once again as a result of the blending of Saturn and Uranus’ contradictory planetary energies.

One reason why I am not certain will retest the Oct 10 lows is that some new research I’ve done suggests that we are more likely to see lower lows in mid-December.   In fact, those are more likely to test the 2002-2003 lows of 7100 than anything we will see this week or next. Investors thinking of buying into the market for a longer duration would be well advised to wait until December.

Indian stocks put up some impressive gains as the indices rose 12%.  The Sensex opens Monday at 9788 while the Nifty sits at 2885. Notwithstanding my mistaken call for last week, I am maintaining a very bearish outlook for Mumbai this week.  Look for substantial losses this week with the week’s lows occurring on Thursday or Friday.  Transiting Sun will conjoin the NSE Rahu and come under the malefic aspect of the natal Mars on Friday while transiting Mars sits in the 12th house of loss.  This is a very bearish configuration that could push prices down at least 10% for the week.  There is also a chance we will retest the Oct 27 lows, although I admit I am not certain of this, as next week looks sufficiently negative that it may result in still lower levels. 

As stocks advanced last week, so did most currencies against the US dollar.  The Euro rose sharply and opens the week above 1.27.  With the fall in stocks this week, we can expect to see most of last week’s gains disappear.  Transiting Mars will aspect the natal Ketu in the Euro chart.  As a possible trigger, the transiting Moon will conjoin that natal Ketu on Thursday. This may well mark the largest decline on the week.  I expect a low around 1.22-1.25, if not below 1.20 intraday. Other currencies like the Rupee will likely also fall in the coming week, perhaps back to the 50-51 level.  Even if the US dollar rises significantly over the next two weeks, I think we won’t see the high in the dollar until December. 

Crude oil rebounded last week on improved economic sentiment and opens the week at $67.  Look for a sell off early in the week as the Venus-Saturn-Uranus configuration activates the angles in the Futures chart.  We may well be under $60 by Wednesday.   I would not be surprised to see $55 this week or next.

Gold enjoyed a brief rally midweek but fell late sharply on Friday and opens Monday at $718.  My bearish outlook for gold remains is unchanged as transiting Sun is still debilitated in Libra.  What’s worse this week is that it will come closer to the negative influence of Saturn towards the end of the week.  I think we will see gold below $700 this week, perhaps well below.  There is a lot of technical support at $650 so that is an obvious price target to watch for in the coming days.  It may well get there over the next two weeks, but it is not certain.  A more reliable low in gold will occur in December.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 11/2/2008 05:24:00 PM EST

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Weekly Forecast — week of Oct 27 – 31

Global stock markets continued their downward spiral last week as investors weighed the implications of a prolonged worldwide recession.  US stocks lost 6% as the Dow closed Friday at 8378 while the SPX stood at 876.  This was largely in keeping with last week’s mostly bearish forecast as the market prepared itself for a retest of the Oct 10 lows this week with Friday’s harried decline.

This week I think it is certain we will see a retest of the recent lows and in all likelihood the 2003 lows also.  This may occur as soon as Monday the 27th as the Moon conjoins Mercury in a negative alignment with both malefics, Mars and Saturn.  Indeed, Monday looks like the most negative day this week so it is likely we will see a close below 8000 on the Dow and 840 on the SPX.  I would not be surprised to see 7500 on an intraday basis. Tuesday will probably begin negatively but there is a good chance for a rally in the afternoon in advance of the Sun-Moon conjunction later in the day.  The market may rally on Wednesday but the end of the week looks quite unstable and probably negative as Mars comes under the exact aspect of Saturn.  

In terms of when the interim low will be reached, I’m still not certain if it will occur this week or next week.  While this week’s planets look worse than next week’s, it is possible that this reflects a greater percentage decline rather than the bottom of the market.  Monday will probably see the larger loss and it may well prove to be the interim low, but that may also occur Friday the 31st or even sometime next week, albeit will less dramatic single day drops.   More cautious investors would do well to consider covering some short positions Monday just in case Friday does not quite return to Monday’s levels.  And with some kind of modest rally likely in November, it may be worthwhile to take some speculative long positions during the down days this week and next.

Indian markets were savaged last week after the RBI left rates unchanged Friday.  The Nifty lost 12% in a single day and closed at 2584 while the Sensex ended Friday’s bloodbath at an unbelievable 8701.  My forecast had been fairly bearish about last week and correctly noted that Friday (and this Monday) would be the worst day(s).  I also wondered aloud if 2000 on the Nifty was a possibility now.  What seemed unrealistically gloomy last week, now seems much more plausible.  This is a level with some technical support dating back to 2005 and given the probable volatility over the next two weeks seems more reachable.  That said, I think that the greater portion of the declines have already taken place with the Mars conjunction to the BSE Rahu.  Even with the likelihood of a decent November rally, investors should be cautious as December looks quite negative again.  If the Nifty manages to stay above 2000 here, say, with lows in the 2200-2400 range, it may ultimately test that support level in December.  With a shortened trading week for the Diwali holiday, look for another big down day Monday with a gain Wednesday, followed by another down day Friday.

With the ongoing financial turmoil creating high levels of fear, the US dollar has taken flight.  As predicted, the Euro fell below 1.30 last week and opens Monday at 1.2624.  With the Moon-Mercury conjunction occuring right on top of the natal Euro Mars on Monday, look for another huge sell off, perhaps as low as 1.20 by Tuesday morning.  Friday may see the Euro fall below 1.20, perhaps decisively.   Even with a rally later in November, the US dollar will likely rally again against the Euro and most other currencies in December with the greenback hitting a high around December 12.  The trend will likely reverse after that.  In all likelihood, the above pattern will apply to the Indian Rupee also with further declines in the next two weeks of 5-10%. 

Crude oil also plunged last week amidst fears of economic slowdown and the US dollar appreciation and closed at $64.  This conformed well with last week’s forecast for crude below $70.  $60 seems inevitable this week as the Futures chart is still heavily afflicted.  Transiting Sun conjoins Saturn early in the week while transiting Mercury opposes Mars at the end of the week making for very bearish bookends.  Look for an interim low in crude next week somewhere in the $50-55 range.

Gold also experienced sharp declines last week on the US dollar rally and closed Friday at $730.  This was in keeping with our expectations that gold is headed to the $650 support level by December, perhaps sooner.  Look for gold to plunge Monday as transiting Mercury is in tense aspect with the Futures natal Saturn.  I would not be surprised to see it fall below $700 then, or perhaps later in the week.   With transiting Ketu conjoining the natal Moon in this chart, look for gold to fall further in the next two weeks.  The retest of these early November lows (perhaps around $650) will occur in mid-December.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/26/2008 01:31:00 PM EDT

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Weekly Forecast — week of October 20 – 24

US markets rebounded somewhat last week but remain highly volatile amidst continuing fears of a deep recession and global banking uncertainty.  The Dow finished Friday’s session 5% higher on the week and opens Monday at 8852  while the SPX sits at 940.  While I had not expected the extent of last week’s bounce, it’s clear that the markets are indeed trying to form a bottom at this point and that some retest of the Oct 10 lows at 8000/840 is imminent. 

This week looks mixed again although I think Monday and Tuesday looks more negative.  It’s even conceivable we could see a retest of those lows then, although I’m not sure there’s enough malefic energy available to move the markets down another 10% in such a short time.  Monday starts with the Moon aspecting Jupiter, a normally helpful influence.  But with Jupiter is close aspect to Saturn and Rahu, I think Jupiter’s impact here will only amplify the fear of investors and push the market down.  Some up days are likely midweek, as the Moon transits Cancer Tuesday and Wednesday where it may alleviate anxiety.  Some key indicators turn more clearly negative by week’s end, however, as Mercury moves into bad aspect to Mars once again.  If the retest does not occur this week, then a more probable date for it would be next Monday Oct 27, when many of the malefic aspects line up more exactly.  Mercury will be quite close to Mars’ influence, while Mars aspects malefic Rahu.  I think we will see a close decisively below 8000 by then, perhaps as low as 7500.

It’s possible that we will see some kind of meaningful bottom as soon as next week, so investors who are short may consider closing out some of those positions then.  I still think we will see more down days than up days until at least the first week of November, so lower prices are still very possible after Oct 27.  The date of the US election stands out as another possible lower low below 7500, as Saturn exactly opposes Uranus while Mars simultaneously squares Neptune.  This configuration may represent an exogenous political event that could affect the markets very negatively. 

Indian markets lost more ground last week as the Sensex closed below 10,000 for the first time in two years.  The Sensex opens trading Monday at 9975 while the Nifty stands at 3074.  While I had predicted a down week, I erroneously reversed the intraweek trend so that the positive days were actually in the early part of the week.  This week looks quite uninspired although overall I think losses may not be as severe.  Transiting Mars is approaching an aspect to the already afflicted natal Mars and the natal Rahu in the BSE chart so it’s really only a matter of time when this explosively negative aspect manifests.  My guess is that the worst of it will be Friday and then again next Monday Oct 27.  The downside potential from this aspect is very large and I think we will see another big drop over the next two weeks, certainly well below 3000 on the Nifty.   There’s a lot of technical support at 2000 but that seems too large a drop to consider seriously.  In the meantime, the start of the week looks negative as the Nifty may dip below 3000 with some rebound rallies possible into Wednesday or Thursday.

With stock markets bouncing back last week, the Euro managed to close the week mostly unchanged at 1.34, as late week pessimism erased the early week gains.  With stocks preparing to fall again this week and next, I would look for the Euro to easily break below 1.30.   We could see a big drop of 2 cents or more early in the week as the transiting Sun opposes the natal Saturn in the Euro chart.  Friday and next Monday also look very bearish and likely reflects a further gain in the US dollar as a safe haven amidst volatile stock markets.

As predicted, crude oil traded below $70 last week although it rallied slightly on Friday to close at $72.  I think we are likely to see more trading below $70 this week although there will still be some strength in the prices.  Sentiment will turn very bearish by the end of the week, however, as transiting Mars opposes the natal Venus and the Sun conjoins natal Saturn in the Futures chart.  In all likelihood, crude will be below $65 by next week, perhaps as low as $60.

Gold prices collapsed further last week as bullion closed at $788.  While I had expected to see prices below $800 by November, this early extreme bearishness was a little unexpected.   Any rallies will be very short lived this week as the major move down in gold will continue for the foreseeable future. Tuesday and Wednesday look best for gold this week as transiting Mercury conjoins the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/19/2008 07:26:00 PM EDT

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Weekly Forecast — October 13 -17

Global stock markets crashed this week on fears the ongoing financial crisis will lead to a deep and prolonged recession. Most bourses lost between 15-20% of their value as the Dow finished at levels last seen in 2003. At the end of Friday’s session, the Dow stood at 8451 while the S&P closed at 899. The New York indices bounced off key support levels (8000/840) during Friday’s trading and thus prevented a full-blown market panic. While there was no single day decline that warranted the term "crash", it’s clear that these markets capitulated this week. This confirms my prediction over the past weeks and months that early October would see a crash or crash-like event. Specifically, as far back as early September, I had isolated October 9-10 as the most likely dates for the most serious decline. Thursday October 9th saw the biggest single day drop in this current slide as American markets fell over 7%. On the 9th, Saturn’s exact tense aspect with Rahu was punctuated by close aspects of the Sun and Moon and provided the downside energy for the markets to sell off hard.

Markets will now attempt to form some kind of bottom over the coming weeks through a process of rally, failed rally, and retesting of the the Oct 10 intraday lows.  This week looks mixed at best as the early part of the week may see more downside probing of 8000/840. Although the aspect is now separating, Saturn is still quite close to Rahu’s influence so some negative hangover effects may be present Monday and Tuesday. I would not be surprised to see 8000 breached intraday and a lower close from current levels is likely. Monday’s close looks especially weak, so that might be the temporary bottom. Tuesday’s Full Moon occurs in Pisces but fortunately is largely unafflicted, a possible sign that the next 29 days may not see significantly lower low. Mercury turns direct Wednesday afternoon so that is another possible indicator that sentiment may be improving. Overall, I think the market will finish near current levels although a downside bias seems more likely. Next week looks somewhat better although I don’t foresee any major rallies until November.

As predicted, India’s markets got clobbered last week as the Sensex shed 16% and Nifty posted a 14% loss as the credit freeze went global. The Sensex closed at 10,527 while the Nifty ended Friday at 3279. I’m not optimistic about prospects this week since Mercury’s direct station occurs in fairly close tense aspect with the NSE’s natal Saturn. This will make rallies fizzle fairly quickly and give more courage to those who are shorting the market. I think some intraday trades below 10k/3100 is quite possible although I do not expect any kind of massive decline here. By Friday, we’ll probably be modest lower from current levels.

With all the fear in the markets, most currencies fell against the US dollar which acted as a safe haven against uncertainty. Although I was partially correct in calling for a stronger Euro last week, Friday’s mayhem erased the midweek gains and it ended slightly above 1.34, down over 3 cents on the week. The Euro is going to fall further this week as the Sun comes under the influence of natal Ketu. I think 1.30 is very possible at some point this week as the US dollar rally will continue for the foreseeable future.

Last week’s prediction of a huge decline in crude oil prices was correct, as crude was sideswiped by recession fears and closed Friday at $77, down from $94. This was even lower than my low range target of $80. Crude will probably go below $70 this week although I think there may be some strength later on and into next week that may bring it temporarily back above $70, perhaps even to $75.

Gold’s safe haven status came into question as it sold off Friday and closed at $854. While gold fared better on the week than I expected, its sell off Friday was in keeping with our forecast. Gold listlessness here amidst the financial chaos ought to be food for thought for gold bugs. It is very unlikely to rally as long as banking fears are front and centre. It is likely to be flat at best or go lower in the early going, with Friday perhaps as a gain leading into higher prices next week. Depending on how low it gets this week, we may see $900 briefly again next week but not much more. Early November looks very bearish.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/12/2008 03:37:00 PM

Weekly Forecast — October 6 – 10

The markets took it on the chin for yet another week on growing fears that the bailout bill will not prevent the economy from sliding into a deep recession. For the week, the Dow fell 7% to finish at 10,325 while the broader S&P500 declined 9% to 1099. While I correctly predicted noteworthy declines for Monday and Friday, I was far too sanguine about the week overall and underestimated the extent of the negativity. I will note that I was correct in calling for some kind of midweek rally, although it sputtered at 11,000, which was well below upper level expectation. Nonetheless, our default bearish stance has positioned us well as we head into what will likely be another difficult week after the markets sold off Friday on news of the passage of the bailout package.

We’re now entering what I believe is the most bearish period so far as the Sun conjoins Mercury under the influence of Rahu on Tuesday while Saturn and Rahu are in tense aspect. A number of bearish hits to pertinent natal charts reinforce the notion that we may be facing an even larger decline this week. Taking it as a proxy for the whole market, the Nasdaq chart, for example, has transiting Mars conjoining the Descendant early in the week. This is a very bearish indicator and completes a t-square with the natal Moon-Mercury opposition. At the same time, the Sun-Mercury conjunction occurs atop the natal Uranus in that chart. Meanwhile, transiting Venus exactly opposes the natal Saturn on Tuesday. So there’s no shortage of potential difficult energies there, although it is significant that they appear to focus on earlier in the week, mostly on Monday and possibly Tuesday as an indicator of larger declines. I expect the Dow will break decisively below 10,000 by intraday Tuesday at the latest, although the Tuesday close and Wednesday’s trading might see a decent recovery back above 10,000 or higher.

I still think there is a potential for a more serious decline later in the week, especially on Thursday as the Moon conjoins Rahu and increases the intensity of the larger planetary configuration. While I’ve written previously about the possibility or even likelihood of a crash-type scenario in this time period, I don’t want to fall into the common trap of ‘astrological sensationalism’ here. (or maybe I already have!) It’s conceivable that the larger decline may be delayed until early November, as October sees high volatility and more downward probing below 10,000. That is a very real possibility that would not surprise me. But we may also be on the verge of the largest one-week decline here, perhaps over 10% and 9000 on the Dow, and investors should be aware of this potential. In a nutshell, I’m predicting a very (i.e. >5%) negative week , the only question is how negative it will be. I still think the markets are eventually headed down to 8000 or below by November, or December at the latest.

Mumbai lost 5% last week as Monday’s afflicted New Moon in Virgo set up a negative pattern that proved to be too much for markets. The Nifty begins the week at 3818 while the Sensex opens at 12,526. There’s little reason to be optimistic this week as Ketu bears down on the NSE natal Mars, and we could see a decline that pushes the Nifty back to 3600 or below. Friday looks terrible.

With Chinese markets were closed for the week, Tokyo could not escape the bearish mood as the Nikkei plunged 8% and stands at 10,938. It’s very hard to imagine how the Nikkei will go anywhere but down this week with the double barrelled affliction to the natal Mercury from Saturn and Rahu. There’s a good chance of breaking below 10,000 at some point. On Thursday and Friday, transiting Mars will aspect both Jupiter and Venus in the natal chart, which may be an indicator that the larger decline for the week. This is a hugely afflicted horoscope.

As predicted, last week the Euro collapsed below its support level of 1.38 as it lost 6 cents and closed Friday at 1,3784. While my outlook on the Euro remains hugely bearish, declines this week will be more modest and we may even see some gains. The weekend moves by European governments to shore up the banking system will likely help support the Euro somewhat this week as Venus conjoins the MC of the Euro ETF chart although any upside will likely be confined to early or mid-week.

Oil prices plunged last week on recession fears and finished below $94. While I had forecast prices below $100, I had thought they would not occur until this week. I expect this major decline of crude to continue and even accelerate this week, perhaps as low as $80-85, as significator Saturn is in tense aspect to Rahu with Sun and Moon playing supporting roles. In the Futures chart, transiting 12th lord Mars takes aim at the Moon-Saturn conjunction with lower prices as the most likely outcome. Even if there is some kind of relief rally towards the end of October, I wonder if we’ve seen the last of $100 crude for a while.

As predicted, gold continued its decline last week, although I underestimated the bearishness at it fell back over $50 to $833. As I wrote in my market updates this week, I no longer think there is enough upside in gold to push it back to $1000. There will be some smaller rallies that will likely hit $900 over the next few weeks but gold will start to move more negatively as we head into November. This week looks bad, especially towards the end of the week and we may see gold fall below $800 once again. If we manage some up days earlier, it may somewhat offset the declines that are likely for Thursday and Friday. Next week looks much better for gold.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/05/2008 06:14:00 PM

Weekly Forecast — September 29 – October 3

As predicted, stocks in New York declined 3% last week, as the Mercury retrograde station in conjunction with Mars did, in fact, extend the losing streak on Wall St. While I had thought the damage might have been worse, we did approach the forecast targets as the Dow tested 10,700 and the S&P 1180. As this global financial crisis continues to unfold, the Dow opens Monday at 11,143 while the S&P is at 1213.

Much of the market’s immediate fate seems to ride on the US government bailout plan. If it passes as expected on Sunday or Monday, then the market is likely to rally, perhaps substantially, over the coming week. While I had previously forecast early week declines, it’s possible that these may not come to pass. Monday features a New Moon in Virgo. One possible difficulty here is that Virgo’s ruler Mercury is in aspect to no less than three potentially disruptive planets — Rahu, Uranus, and Neptune. Moreover, this New Moon occurs just one degree from the natal Rahu in the NYSE chart. Perhaps the malefic New Moon configuration will apply to trading sentiment in the coming month rather than the day of its occurrence. In any event, the market sentiment is likely to improve as the week progresses, so we very well may see net gains overall, regardless of the fate of the bailout package. With benefic Venus rising at the start of Monday’s trading, 11,700 is very possible this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 12,000 at some point. Any prices near these levels may best be seen as exit points from the market for longer term investors. Watch for a decline on Friday, however, as Mercury will be in exact aspect to Rahu while Mars conjoins the natal Neptune and opposes the natal Saturn in the NYSE chart.

This may set up the jittery mood for next week from Oct 6 – 10 where I am still forecasting a significant decline, perhaps as much as 10%. Even if we have some kind of ‘good news’ rally this week, I still think next week’s sell off will break below support levels of 10,500 and 1150. The second half of October is more favourable so we can expect some kind of rally in advance of another larger move down in November.

As predicted, Mumbai is coming off a terrible week in which it lost over 6% as the Sensex closed at 13,102 and the Nifty at 3985, their lowest levels since July. Whatever happens Monday, markets are more likely to rise this week as Venus applies to conjoin its natal position in the NSE chart. Next week will erase any gains made here and likely retest the lows. There is a very good chance that these lows will be broken — Nifty 3800; Sensex 12,500.

The Nikkei was unchanged last week and opens Monday at 11,893. It is likely to move higher this week, especially with the Sun-Moon conjunction in good aspect to the natal Jupiter in the TSE chart. The bullish mood will likely come to and end by early next week, however, with the Sun-Mercury conjunction on the natal Neptune.

Against expectations, Shanghai was sharply higher last week as the government passed trading rules that cheered investors. The SSE opens at 2293 on Monday and will likely move higher as the Sun and Venus sit on the 9th and 10th house cusps respectively early in the week. It may take next week and the week following to take it under 2000.

The Euro had another bullish week and closed up one cent at 1.4588 on early week gains over the health of the financial financial system and the US dollar. While I’ve been wrong the past two weeks on the Euro, I think my bearish views may finally pay off this week as transiting Mars opposes the natal Saturn. 1.42 is possible. Wednesday looks the most positive day of the week as Moon and Venus will simultaneously conjoin the natal Jupiter in the FXE chart. Next week will likely see another bounce to 1.45 or higher as equities move lower.

Oil was up modestly last week and closed at $106. This week is likely to see continued strength in crude as Sun and Venus aspect their natal positions in the Futures chart. $110 is a possibility here, although it is unlikely to hold into next week as Mars conjoins the natal Moon-Saturn. Prices will see a sharp decline then and may move back to $100 or below. While a rally in crude is likely later in October, the longer term outlook into November and beyond is more negative.

As predicted, Gold was higher last week and closed Friday at $888. While I had thought it would be over $900 by now, at least it did trade above that level several times over the week. I think gold is likely to decline this week, although perhaps not by that much. Friday looks like it may be the best day for gold, as the Sun conjoins the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart. My previous forecast of $1000 may have been a little premature, but I still that level is within reach over the next two weeks. In the near term, gold will likely peak in the second week of November.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 9/28/2008 05:03:00 PM

Global markets teetered on the brink last week as the banking crisis threatened to bring down the whole financial system. After steep early losses early in the week, the US government and Federal Reserve were compelled to intervene to stabilize the situation by bailing out the insurer AIG and injecting $700 billion into the system in an effort to restore shaken investor confidence. Markets rallied strongly Thursday and Friday and finished the week largely unchanged from Monday’s open. The current situation remains extremely fragile and uncertain. My prediction two weeks ago for a significant decline on either Sep 12 or 15th was exactly on the money, as I had written that the American markets would retest their previous July lows at this time. This is exactly what happened as Monday’s decline on the Dow broke through the all-important 11,000 level and Wednesday’s close of 10,600 was even lower than the January low. Similarly the S&P breached the significant 1200 support level formed by the July low on Monday and hit 1150 on Wednesday. The Dow ended Friday’s session at 11,388 while the S&P closed at 1255. While the strength of the late week rally was a little surprising to me, I did expect some gains later in the week.

Despite the astonishing recovery in the markets, my fundamental prediction for lower prices in the near term has not changed. This week looks mostly negative as the Sun-Pluto square perfects on Monday suggesting the possibility of a down day. Tuesday may see a bounce but we may end up testing 11,000 and 1200 at some point this week. Mars will conjoin the slowing Mercury on Tuesday and Mercury will turn retrograde on Wednesday so that is unlikely to help matters. A 2-3% decline is possible there, probably on Wednesday. I think Friday looks negative also, however and the following Monday the 29th looks even worse, so that could be another a new significant move down below 10,500 and 1150. We may see a 5% decline on Monday the 29th. This is going to get ugly very quickly. By mid-October, we could be below 9000 on the Dow. So what I’m predicting here is something akin to a crash. I’m not certain there will be a single, one day capitulation but perhaps instead a series of smaller drops. However, October 6-10 does look worse than most other time windows here, so if a crash occurs, it would most likely be then. One can’t help but paraphrase the Prince song, ‘we’re going to party like it’s 1929…’

Mumbai is coming off a similarly roller coaster week as the Sensex opens at 14,042 and the Nifty at 4245. After the predicted early week losses pushed indices down sharply, markets rallied on improved sentiment. My prediction that previous lows would not be breached was largely correct as the Nifty only got down to 3915. Monday will see the catch up rally, but the mood should darken after that. Hard to say if the week will finish up overall — much depends on how negative the Mercury retrograde station is. What’s particularly troubling about this Mercury-Mars conjunction is that it occurs exactly conjunction the natal Mercury of the NSE chart. This seems very disruptive, and may indicate substantial declines. I would not bank on any substantial gains after Monday. The following Monday the 29th looks quite grave, so we can expect the old lows to be knocked out by next week at the latest. That will mean 3800 on the Nifty and 12,500 on the Sensex. After that, I think there will be at least another 10% decline in early October. Buckle up.

Tokyo also got caught up in the financial vortex as the Nikkei closed lower and ended the week at 11,920, despite a huge rally on Friday. As predicted, the early week losses did break through the March lows as the index sank as low as 11,500. After a rally Monday, next week will see further erosion on the downside. The next support level is 11,000 which dates back to 2005 and that will be in jeopardy by the 29th. Transiting Saturn is applying to square the natal Mercury in the TSE chart over the next couple of weeks, so it’s clear that Tokyo is headed much lower.

Shanghai also did not escape the market turmoil last week and did indeed break well below the 2000 level on the SSE as we predicted. It finished the week mostly unchanged and opens trading Monday at 2075. As a result of the chaos, the Bank of China changed some key trading rules, so it’s possible that declines will be more modest this week than on other bourses. Nonetheless, the Mercury-Mars conjunction occurs very close to the Part of Fortune in the SSE chart, so it seems that Shanghai will follow other world markets lower. I think it will close below 2000 by week’s end. By the second week of October, it may be close to 1600.

The Euro had a strong week as it gained 3 cents to finish at 1.4474. While I did not foresee this move up, I am maintaining my bearish stance as this week looks more clearly negative. The transiting Sun is moving away from the natal ascendant, while Mercury and Mars transit close to the aspect of natal Ketu. We will likely see 1.40 again by week’s end or by next Monday at the latest. With all of these US government bailouts, the Fed may be forced to raise rates to defend the dollar which would spell disaster for the Euro.

Oil finished the week strong, as crude futures closed Friday above $104. While I did expect to see some upside above $100 last week, I thought prices would generally be weaker as the trend is to the downside. There is a chance for some modest short term gains this week, but the planets looks generally more bearish as the week progresses as transiting Venus conjoins the natal Saturn in the Futures chart on Friday. We could see $90 again over the next two weeks with the price continuing to fall through October back to $80 or below.

Last week, I thought Gold looked "volatile" with "daily $20 moves in both directions". Quite true, but I grossly underestimated the upside potential later in the week with the approach of Venus and Mercury to the MC of the GLD chart. I thought it would rise, but nowhere near as much as it did. Gold experienced its biggest one-day rise ever as it soared $80 in a single session. Its intraday high was $900 and finally settled at $864 at the close on Friday. I think bullion is poised to rise again this week, likely to well over $900. By next Monday the 29th, it may get to $1000 as the transiting Sun conjoins the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart. I believe gold is likely to trend higher until at least mid-October and by that time we may see prices well above $1000, perhaps to $1100. Calling a top in such a turbulent and chaotic market will be difficult. Gold will not stay at those lofty levels for long, however, so I am expecting a price collapse late in October or November back to current levels or below.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 9/21/2008 05:44:00 PM

Stocks in New York finished slightly higher last week overcoming continuing anxiety over the viability of the financial sector in the wake of the credit crisis. While I had been more bearish last week, much of my forecast for caution was based upon the assumption that the decline would begin with Friday’s session which ended up being neutral. The negative potential of the Mars-Rahu aspect has yet to be played out however, so the decline will likely take place on Monday and perhaps carry over into Tuesday. Perhaps the failure to save Lehman Bros. may be the news required to send the market back under 11,000. The Dow opens Monday’s session at 11,421 and the S&P at 1242.

This week looks negative overall as Monday and Tuesday’s gloomy sentiment will likely override any offsetting gains later in the week. The Sun moves into Virgo late Tuesday, so that may generate a little positive energy as it leaves the company of Saturn in Leo and joins somewhat more auspicious company of Venus, Mars and Mercury in Virgo. But by week’s end, Venus moves into Libra thus leaving Mercury to fend for itself against Mars. Friday, therefore, could see another decline. The Sun is applying to square Pluto by Friday and over the weekend, while transiting Mars is moving closer to oppose the natal Moon in the NYSE chart so that’s another reason to exercise caution this week. Wednesday and Thursday look like the best chance for gains this week. Nonetheless, there’s a real possibility the market could end up below 11,000 here. This retesting on the downside is preparation for a substantial decline in late September or more likely the first week of October that will take the market decisively under 10,000.

As predicted, Mumbai lost ground last week as the Sensex opens Monday at 14,000 even and the Nifty at 4228. I was also correct in calling the early week gains and the erosion of confidence towards Friday. Look for more declines, perhaps even larger ones this week as transiting Mars conjoins natal Rahu and squares Jupiter in the Nifty natal chart. While I don’t think there will be a retesting of the July lows (12,800; 3800) this week, we could get half way there, at least on an intraweek basis. Some bargain hunting may bring things back up a bit midweek, but we’ll probably finish well off these levels. By early October, there will be a global market retreat that will pull the indexes down sharply.

Tokyo was unchanged last week as the Nikkei opens trading Monday at 12,212. Since the Friday sell off did not occur as predicted, stocks managed to stave off losses on the basis of Monday’s predicted gains. There’s a chance of the Nikkei retesting its March lows of 11,800 early in the week, although I think the rest of week will see some recovery. Next week looks worse so those March lows will likely be knocked out then.

As predicted, Shanghai declined another 5% last week as the SSE opens at 2079. While Friday’s session was not negative, Monday’s will likely be quite bearish as the transiting Mars aspects the natal Rahu in the SSE Composite chart. It’s difficult to see much upward strength here, so we may see prices below 2000 for the first time since October 2007. Once Chinese stocks correct fully over the next month or two, there will be an excellent buying opportunity near 1500.

As predicted, the Euro did trade below 1.40 midweek. It recovered by week’s end to 1.4217, down half a cent on the week. While there is a chance for some early week gains, by Wednesday the Euro is likely to trend downward. The decline could be severe to the point where it may be trading well below 1.40 by Friday. Look for the Euro to fall very sharply in the coming weeks.

As predicted, crude oil held above $100 last week, but just barely. Overall, market sentiment was more negative than forecast as it closed above $101 on Friday. There’s a chance of more upside early on this week, but generally this looks like a down week. There’s a very good chance oil will close well below $100 by Friday, perhaps down to $95. Oil looks quite negative over the next two weeks as Venus and Mars move into Libra and hence come under the malefic influence of the natal Saturn and Mars in the Futures chart. I would not be surprised to see crude tumble below $90 in the short term.

As predicted, Gold dropped below $780 last week and opens Monday at $764. I was still overly optimistic in my forecast and thought there would be more of an early rally than there was. Also I did not foresee the downside probing into the $740 range. Gold this week looks volatile, and we may see daily $20 moves in both directions. I would not be surprised to see bullion drop below $740. As Venus and Mercury approach the MC of the GLD chart later in the week, there is a chance for some upside here, although next week looks better overall.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 9/14/2008 03:25:00 PM

Weekly Forecast — September 8 – 12

New York is coming off a gloomy week as stocks dropped 3% on bad employment numbers and continuing fears that a recession is in the offing. Although I did not foresee the big sell off Thursday, my fears for a negative week were largely realized as the Dow closed at 11,220 and the S&P at 1242. As it turned out the Moon-Sun-Saturn-Jupiter configuration at 18 degrees of their respective signs on Thursday was a reminder of how the perfection of soft aspects can lead to declines as investors seek relief by cashing out. This is not unlike the abundance of similarly soft aspects that marked the 1987 crash.

While there is an opportunity for gains earlier in the week, I think caution is the best strategy here with a number of potentially negative influences coming together for Friday’s session. Jupiter turns direct in time for Monday which may create some basis for optimism but the squaring of Mars and Mercury to Jupiter puts that in jeopardy. Venus squares the Moon-Jupiter conjunction on Tuesday so that might be the best chance for a gain this week. By Friday, the Sun opposes unpredictable Uranus while Mercury-Venus-Mars come under the destabilizing aspect of Rahu. This promises to be a high volume session with a lot of volatility and my guess it will be on the downside. The Moon conjoins Rahu that day indicating that investors will be acting more on emotions than reasoned analysis. Much of this configuration is still in effect for next Monday the 15th, so it’s going to be a risky time to be in the market. A retesting of the July lows (10,700 intraday) is very likely here, and there is a greater than normal risk of a major sell off down below 10,.500. We may even move below 10,000 depending on how much offsetting upside we have early in the week. An additional factor here is that the Mercury-Venus-Mars-Rahu pattern will activate the natal Saturn in the USA chart. While this needn’t directly indicate stock market decline, it likely signifies an event that is significant enough that it will have negative market ramifications. This could be grim and likely the start of another leg down into the bear market abyss.

Mumbai was largely unchanged last week as it gamely resisted the widespread global pullback. The Sensex begins at 14,483 while the Nifty stands at 4352. While I thought Indian markets may have a little more upside movement, this outcome largely confirms the forecast for minimal change. This week looks negative overall, although with a caveat that if New York only moves lower in Friday’ session, then the bulk of the fallout may be delayed until next Monday’s session on the 15th.
Also, the early week gains may somewhat offset the losses towards the end of the week.

As predicted, Tokyo moved lower last week and the Nikkei stands at 12,212. There should be some decent gains in the early week that may push the market above 12,600. As with other Asian markets, Friday’s bearishness may carry over or be delayed until Monday. The Mercury-Venus-Mars will conjoin the 4th house cusp of the TSE chart thus adding extra punch to the move down.

Shanghai is also coming off yet another bad week and opens at 2202. Transiting Ketu continues to have its way with the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction of the SSE Composite chart. Towards the end of the week the transiting Sun falls under the aspect of the natal Rahu thus providing the probable spark for selling. Shanghai is likely to follow other global markets lower in this move.

I was spectacularly wrong on the Euro last week as it continued to move downward and closed at 1.4267. Certainly, the Euro is on the way down in the medium term and is likely headed for par with the US dollar. The decline will likely continue this week particularly as the Mercury-Venus-Mars comes to the natal Mars in the Euro chart. 1.40 is possible.

Oil fell sharply last week in the wake of the brief spike above $117 brought on by hurricane Gustav. While I had expected falling prices later in the week, particularly after the separation of the Sun-Saturn conjunction, I was surprised by the extent of the decline back to $106. Last week’s action gave support to the notion that Saturn is the significator for Oil and the Sun’s combustion is an affliction that tends to bring prices down. I think there won’t be too much more downside this week, as prices should stay above $100 intraday. Look for gains to accrue midweek so that we may see some trades at $110 at some point. Given the recent inverse relationship between crude prices and equities, it is tempting to think that Oil will move up with Friday’s likely down move. I’m not sure that will be the case this time, however.

Gold also moved down sharply last week and opens at $802. I had thought there would be more upside in the early going, but the negative influence of Saturn on the Sun predominated throughout the whole week. Gold may bounce back a little in the early week, perhaps to $820 as transiting Venus conjoins the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart. The end of the week is harder to figure with the Sun-Uranus opposition although I think the downside risk is larger than upside potential. Gold is in bear market territory so the default bias is negative, particularly with transiting Saturn moving into exact opposition to the natal Jupiter in the Futures chart. There’s a very real chance of a wholesale sell off here towards the $780 support level. More cautious traders looking for a rally would be better advised to wait until next week and after.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 9/07/2008 03:53:00 PM

Weekly Forecast — week of Sep 1 – 5

As predicted, New York stocks finished down last week, as the Dow closed at 11,543 and the S&P at 1282. The 1% drop was a more modest decline than forecast and reflected Thursday’s unexpected gains in advance of the Venus-Pluto square. The persistence of bad economic news is making it hard for this market to rally, and the planets aren’t helping either. This market is now residing in a fairly nondescript anteroom of a very frightening house of bear market horrors.

This week looks mixed, as stocks may start weaker Tuesday and Wednesday after the Monday holiday for Labor Day. Tuesday in particular may feature some anxious tendencies as the Moon is in aspect to Rahu in Hasta. There’s a good chance prices will head higher towards the end of this week after the Sun has moved past its conjunction with Saturn. Thursday may have the most bullish configuration (at least on paper) as the Moon joins an assortment of planets around 18 degrees of their respective signs. If the early week losses stay above 11,300, then there’s a good chance the market will finish higher overall. Nonetheless, I’m not at all confident that there will be many more gains here. The risk of significant losses will increase towards the end of next week and particularly with the Full Moon on Monday the 15th. There is a very real chance of of breaking below the July lows at that time.

Mumbai stocks eked out a slight gain last week as the Sensex stands at 14,564 and the Nifty at 4360. Early week trading should be mostly negative as the transiting Moon and Venus oppose Saturn in the Nifty chart. While prices may fall, they are unlikely to go below 14,000. Late week trading looks more positive as the Moon moves into the 5th house of Libra in the Nifty chart. Overall, the week may close fairly near current levels, with a minimal upside bias.

Tokyo rose about 3% last week and opens at 13,072. While I had hinted at the chance for gains last week, this move up was surprising. The tough sledding early in the week may prevent much more upside this week, although if Tuesday is positive with the Moon in Virgo joining Mercury, Venus, and Mars, then we can look for more gains overall. On Tuesday, the transiting Moon will join Venus as both will be in fairly close aspect to the natal Jupiter in the TSE chart.

Chinese stocks continue to drag along the bottom here, below all the moving averages as the Shanghai Composite opens trading Monday at 2397. With the square aspect of transiting Mars to the natal Venus in the SSE chart Monday, stocks should decline significantly, perhaps below 2300. By week’s end, however, prices should rise with the transits of Mercury and Venus into the 9th house of the SSE chart. 2400-2450 are reasonable targets here.

The Euro sank backwards a bit last week and stands at 1.4674. I had thought we would see more of a rally underway by now but it seems we will have to wait for this week’s trading. Monday and Tuesday will likely be higher with the higher oil prices in any event and will correspond with the transiting Moon in Virgo joining Mercury and Venus near the ascendant in the Euro chart. 1.48 is likely, possibly higher. But as transiting Mars squares its natal position by Friday, the Euro may slip back to 1.47. Next week may take the Euro back above 1.50.

Oil closed above $115 last week, and hit $118 in intraday trading, basically confirming our bullish forecast. Prices are continuing this upward trend today in a special trading session to handle market demands in advance of the likely disruption of supply by hurricane Gustav in the Gulf of Mexico. This upward trend will probably continue until Wednesday and the Sun-Saturn conjunction. It will be interesting to see when prices start to fall back as this conjunction will be in near exact square aspect to the natal Jupiter in the futures chart. Whatever the price spike here, prices are likely to come back below $118 by week’s end, possibly down to $116. There is a chance that crude will fall only starting Friday, since there will be a grand trine formed with transiting Sun/Saturn, Jupiter, and natal Venus in the Futures chart. Next week looks bullish.

Gold closed marginally higher last week in keeping (barely) with the forecast and opens trading at $836. Intraday trades were as high as $844, indicating a tentative exploration of that crucial $850 resistance level. I think Gold may reach $850 this week but is unlikely to hold on to it by week’s end. $900 is looking very possible by the end of September at the latest, but possibly as soon as September 15th.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 8/31/2008 09:13:00 PM

August 24, 2008  Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 8/24/2008 06:26:00 PM

July 27, 2008  Weekly Forecast

New York was little changed last week after the early week rally did not hold. While the low-end forecast target of 11,600 was reached, the Dow ended the week slightly lower at 11,370 and the S&P at 1257. This week looks equally choppy, although I think the bias will be up. I am still expecting a significant rally to take place in August, but we may yet have a little more consolidation and re-testing to go. Monday may be negative as transiting Mars aspects the natal Saturn in the Dow 30 chart.

A solar eclipse occurs on Friday, so that be a signal of a trend reversal. If we get below 11,000 intraday this week, then that might be enough to propel the market higher over the next month. I think 12,700 is within reach in the next leg up. Late August or September is likely to see another top, however, which will set up the next big move down for the rest of the year which will likely knock out the previous bottom at 10,700 and possibly bring us down around 9000.

Bombay is coming off a good week and opens at 14,274. I think there may some downside bias for the Sensex this week, so perhaps it will lose some of its momentum from last week and probe below 13k. The Sun-Mercury conjunction on Wednesday occurs whilst the Moon is transiting the 12th house of the Nifty Futures chart. Moreover, Venus will come under the aspect of natal Ketu on Friday, so that is another possible negative influence.

As predicted, Tokyo is coming off a positive week and begins trading at 13,334. There’s some potential for negativity this week as Sun and Mercury conjoin in he 12th house of the Topix chart. This may only manifest midweek, however, and the otherwise favourable influence of the TSE Jupiter on transiting Mercury and Sun may offset this early in the week. I don’t see a big move either way.

As predicted, the Euro had a difficult week and finished at 1.5691. This week doesn’t look quite as negative, but the momentum will likely continue to be flat or modestly negative. I don’t think it will go much below 1.56. This will probably be a good week to short the Euro as next week promises to be another big move down, possibly to 1.52.

Oil is coming off another negative week, as forecast, and opens trading at $123. I think this will be a recovery week for crude as the Sun-Mercury conjunction occurs under the auspicious aspect of the natal Jupiter in the Futures chart. The end of the week looks strongest so we may see prices push above $125. Monday may be negative, however, and we may see $120 intraday at some point.

Gold fell sharply last week and reached our target of $920 before ending the week at $928. The bottoming process is continuing here. Like the Euro, Gold will be vulnerable to large pullbacks next week, possibly under $900, but this week the price should hold fairly firm or even trend a bit higher. But given the risks next week, I would be reluctant to take any new long positions here.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 7/27/2008 04:43:00 PM

July 20, 2008 Weekly Forecast

New York is coming off an up week that may have temporarily stilled investor anxiety. After Tuesday’s intraday low of 10,730, it seems that a growing number of participants are thinking that we have formed a bottom here. Our bullish forecast was confirmed with the 4% gain, although the strength of the optimism was somewhat unexpected. The Dow opens trading at 11,496 while the S&P sits at 1260.

I think the week upcoming is likely to see further gains with the approach of transiting Mars in aspect to Jupiter. Monday may see a drop, however, as transiting Sun falls under the square aspect of the natal Saturn in the 1792 chart. Tuesday may be more positive as Mercury is in trine aspect to Uranus as the Moon transits through Jupiter-ruled Purva Bhadrapada. Wednesday looks difficult. Friday also has the potential for a significant gain as Mars comes closest to the influence of Jupiter. Depending on how severe any early week sell offs may be, I think the market can rise to 11,800/1290. If the Dow falls back below 11,200 on Monday, then we may only finish modestly higher — 11,500 – 11,600. Looking ahead, I think last week’s lows will be retested eventually, perhaps as soon as the next two weeks. This market is not out of the woods yet.

Bombay followed on New York’s lead last week and came off its lows of 12.5k and closed at 13,635, slightly above the previous week’s levels. While there are some favourable influences this week, I’m less sure that the Sensex will finish higher. That’s because transiting Mars (20 Leo) will fall under the 8th house aspect of natal Mars (20 Capricorn) in the IFN ETF chart at the end of the week. Venus (20 Cancer) also makes an aspect to chart ruler Mars so that may have a mitigating effect. Transiting Sun comes under the aspect of natal Rahu on Monday which may make the early part of the week negative. The best chance for gains may occur Wednesday or early Thursday as transiting Venus crosses the ascendant of the Nifty Futures chart.

Tokyo resisted the up trend last week and failed to rally and closed slightly lower at 12,803. This week looks mixed as transiting Venus comes under the influence of natal Mars in the TSE chart midweek. Some recovery is possible as transiting Sun is aspected by natal Jupiter and Mercury comes to the ascendant. 13k is a reasonably intraday target here and if Wednesday is not a major pullback, then I think there’s an upside bias overall.

As forecast, the Euro did move past 1.60 but did not hold that psychologically important level. It ended lower on the week and opens Monday at 1.585. As the price of crude weakens, the Euro is vulnerable to sudden declines. Monday may be one such day, as transiting Venus opposes natal Uranus. Tuesday looks bullish as Mercury and Moon are configured with natal Jupiter. Overall, I think most of the action will be to the downside. Right now, I’m looking at Aug 6th as an interim bottom.

As predicted, Oil fell last week, and even broke through the target of $130. It opens trading Monday at $128. Crude will likely recover somewhat early in the week as transiting Venus comes under natal Jupiter’s aspect in the Futures chart. Prices may rise above $135 before being vulnerable to declines later in the week as transiting Sun comes under the negative influence of natal Saturn. A finish near or somewhat below current levels is the most likely outcome.

The rally in Gold failed last week and it ended slightly lower, as forecast. While it did not probe our target $940 last week, it may well this week as transiting Mercury comes under the negative influence of Saturn in the GLD ETF chart late in the week. Overall, gold looks bearish this week, and possibly into next week also. Since Sun transits Saturn-ruled Pushya, I would not rule out $920.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 7/20/2008 04:19:00 PM

July 13 2008 Weekly Forecast

In the wake of last week’s turbulence which saw new intraday lows below 11,000, fear and loathing remain the prevailing sentiments in world markets. The Dow begins the week at 11,100 and the S&P at 1239. While the Mars-Saturn conjunction did not bring a clear capitulation, the growing anxiety about the long term viability of mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac certainly reflected the tension and injury (Mars) inflicted on economic structures (Saturn). As forecast, the market did decline last week, although not quite as much as expected. The current level above 11k is a kind of purgatory that is neither low enough to generate a sense that the selling is over, and not high enough above the new lows to create a sense of security. So we need to come to a better understanding of just where the bottom is here. My thinking was that the time around the Mars-Saturn conjunction would mark an interim bottom, wherever it occurred. And yet without the capitulation sell off that pushed the market close to the 10,500 support level, I am uneasy with the thought that there is no more downside risk.

While volatility will likely characterize much of the upcoming week, I don’t foresee a large decline. Monday looks fairly bullish as Sun trines Uranus and Mercury is trined by the natal Jupiter in the S&P Futures natal Jupiter. If we see a significant up day Monday (>1%), then the week may well be positive. Wednesday and Friday both look more bearish, so I’m reluctant to say there will be any big rallies here. Mercury, the planet of commerce, is transiting Ardra which is ruled by Rahu and generally creates an unstable foundation for action. But the bias seems more to the upside here. If the Monday rally is weak, then I would still hold open the possibility that we might close below 11,000 on Friday. Beyond that, the last chance for support levels to be tested would be the first week of August which looks quite negative. The crucial point there is that the last week of July will feature a trine between Mars and Jupiter that will create upward momentum that will likely move the market well enough above where we are here that any subsequent declines will not breach previous support levels.

Bombay held up well last week to remain unchanged and opens at 13,469. While the Sensex may flirt with 13,000, especially after Monday’s catch-up, I don’t foresee a weekly close much below current levels. Next week looks more difficult with some tense aspects forming in the IFN chart. A new interim low is more likely to form around the 23rd.

As predicted, Tokyo fell last week and opens this week at 13,039. With transiting Saturn now separating from its aspect to the natal Venus in the TSE chart, I think there’s isn’t a lot of downside pressure left here. Similarly, transiting Venus comes under the aspect of Jupiter while Sun applies to the ascendant. Overall, this suggests an upside bias for the week.

As predicted, the Euro is coming off a good week, and opens Monday at 1.5947. I somewhat underestimated the extent of the rise last week, as Venus transited through the sweet spot of the 11th house of gains. Monday looks like another good day as transiting Sun comes under the aspect of natal Jupiter. This may push the Euro over 1.60. Overall, I think early in the week looks favourable, but selling pressures may emerge towards Friday. Overall, I think we will end the week close to where we are now, perhaps a little higher. Next week looks like another high, especially around Tuesday.

Despite a pullback early in the week, Oil hit new highs and closed at $145 against our expectations. I still believe Oil will be susceptible to sharp sell offs going forward although it may not be a consistent move to the downside. I don’t think we’ll see $150 here and look for intraday lows down to $130.

Gold is coming off a big up week and opens Monday at $960. While our forecast was correct to call for lows below $920 which were achieved in early week intraday trading, I did not expect to see a rally so soon. Gold may retrench next week back below $940 before resuming its march back to $1000 in late July and August.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 7/13/2008 02:45:00 PM

July 6 2008 Weekly Forecast

As predicted, New York stocks fell last week as the Dow ended trading at 11,288 while the S&P stood at 1262. Sentiment is increasingly gloomy as the week’s action confirmed that we are currently in a bear market — down 20% from the 2007 highs. While the Dow managed to stay above 11,000 last week, next week promises to be even more newsworthy as the long-awaited Mars-Saturn conjunction occurs. Most observers agree that we’re heading for another down week, the only question is how much. While there are whispers about the possibility of a crash here, I don’t foresee things getting that bad. That said, the market is more vulnerable to sudden declines now that it has been in quite a while so I wouldn’t want to rule out the possibility of the Dow going below 10,000 this week. A more likely scenario is for the markets to dip between 4-7% which would be 10,500-10,700 on the Dow and 1180-1210 on the S&P. If the rally on Monday takes off, then some of these downside targets may be tougher to meet. Nonetheless, I think we will see at least one day close decisively below 11,000/1230, and most likely Friday’s close as well.

Monday has the chance for some gains as Mercury, Sun and Venus are in sidereal Gemini — the only day they will do so — while Moon is aspected by Jupiter. A rise of more than 1% is possible. Things may go south fairly quickly after that as the Sun opposes Jupiter on Wednesday the 9th which will set up both the Mars-Saturn conjunction and the bearish Mercury-Pluto opposition on the 10th. The possibility of a sudden market capitulation by Thursday may create some bonafide buying opportunities by Friday. After this week, we will likely be within 2-3% of an interim bottom that may be re-tested throughout July before a meaningful rally gets going in August. I would say there’s a 50-50 chance that the interim lows will come this week.

In keeping with our previous forecast, Bombay is coming off another negative week in which it closed below 13,000 for the first time in many months. The Sensex opens Monday at 13,454. This week looks like more of the same with the perfection of Mars-Saturn, especially given the stresses in the IFN ETF chart. Tr Mars and Saturn will line up exactly opposite the IFN natal Venus and Mercury. I think we will see lower lows this week with a weekly close below 13,000, perhaps below 12,500. An intraday below 12k is also not out of the question.

Tokyo stands at 13,237 and has similarly been beaten down recently by dim economic prospects. The Thursday Mars-Saturn conjunction occurs right atop the ascendant of the Topix chart so it’s hard to see how the Nikkei will do anything but go down. While there is a real chance of a snapback rally on Friday, we are looking at a re-testing of the March lows around 12k this week. Thus far, Tokyo has withstood the worst of the bearish mood and has remained well above its previous lows. This week looks like it plays a bit of catch up.

As expected, the Euro did have a tougher go of it this week, as the ECB signalled it had finished this round of rate cutting. While I had thought it would finish close to 1.58, Friday’s sell off pushed it down and it opens at 1.5706. I think the Euro is poised to continue its longer term rally this week, although Monday looks quite negative. Transiting Mercury will pass over the MC and thereby form an opposition with Pluto on the Euro’s IC. While not an obviously bullish pattern, it nonetheless looks significant and indicates that currency moves will be big this week. Overall, I expect the Euro will at least get back above 1.58. At the same time, however, some downside protection might be a good idea in case Pluto gets the upper hand.

As predicted, Gold was volatile last week and barely managed a gain overall, closing at $934. The early part of the week looks worst, as transiting Sun conjoins Saturn in the Futures chart. Friday may see a nice rally as Mercury is in aspect with Uranus in the Futures chart but generally, I’m not bullish on Gold here. I think we’ll close lower for the week, possibly under $920 at some point intraweek Gold still has at least two more weeks to go before it makes a decisive break out move above $950 and launches another big run past $1000. I expect there will still be buying opportunities below $920 in the meantime. $900 entry points may no longer be possible.

While Oil failed to reach $150 last week, it did rally further to $145, as forecast. As Mercury moves out of the range of Rahu, however, there is less reason to stay with Oil. Mercury’s entry into Gemini more or less spells the end of this current run-up so this week will likely see a significant decline in crude. Transiting Mars-Saturn will oppose the natal Venus in the Oil ETF chart which might push it down sharply, perhaps back to $130. The next week or two look mixed before another rally ensues after July 18th.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 7/06/2008 11:49:00 AM

June 29 2008 Weekly Forecast

Markets in New York slumped badly last week in advance of the Mars-Saturn conjunction. While I had thought we might sneak a decent week in before the inevitable deluge last week, I was a little off in my timing as losses deepened at the end of the week. The Dow starts Monday at 11,346, thus erasing the previous winter low and is now officially in bear market territory. The S&P is in modestly better shape at 1278, just one percent above its winter low, and down over 18% off its previous high. While exact market timing remains as elusive as ever, my overall bearish forecast has been borne out by June’s decline. The question is, will the market continue to slide as the Mars-Saturn conjunction tightens?

Aside from the obvious intensifying of the aspect, I think there’s good reason to think there is more downside here. It’s possible we will see 11,000 and 1230 this week so there is good reason to stay short this market, at least until July 10th. My best guess here is that next week will be worse than this week. The natal Venus (10 AQ) in the S&P chart will receive the twin malefic energy of Mars and Saturn when they oppose it next week on July 10. The natal Mercury (7 AQ) in this chart will be opposed by transiting Mars on July 2-3 this week, so that might signal further significant declines. Monday doesn’t look good with Moon in a square to the Mars-Saturn-Neptune at the open and may reinforce the gloom in the coming days. I wonder if Thursday is the best day of the week as Moon is conjunct Venus opposite Jupiter. With no trading Friday ahead of the July 4th long weekend, volume is likely to be lighter than normal so the mood may unrealistically buoyant. I don’t want to preclude the possibility that we’ve seen the bulk of the decline already and we may be close to forming an interim bottom around here. This goes for all world markets.

The BSE is also coming off a tough week and opens at 13,802. Note how Friday’s 600 pt decline corresponded with transiting Mars (3 LE) exactly opposing the natal Saturn (3 AQ) in the BSE 1875 chart. Now that it’s broken through 14k, there is considerable room here for more declines. The IFN ETF chart resembles the S&P chart in that there are a few planets in Aquarius (Sun 3 AQ, Saturn 8 AQ, Venus 10AQ, Mercury 12 AQ) that are under pressure from transiting Mars and Saturn. While it is sometimes a mistake to expect the biggest moves when aspects come exact, it is still a useful rule of thumb. I would also add that there is no strong confirmatory bearish signal in the Nifty and BSE 1875 charts. Transiting Sun passes over the equal 12th house cusp in the Nifty chart towards the end of the week, so that might be the worst day of the week. The following week looks worse as transiting Venus conjoins the natal Rahu while tr Mercury conjoins the natal Mars (opposite natal Pluto). There is a good chance that losses may not be too extensive this week, but next week’s negativity would keep me from being long in this market.

Tokyo is coming off a down week and opens at 13,544. The natal Saturn (6 LE) in the TSE chart will be conjoined by tr Mars early this week and signals further losses. The Topix chart has 10 Leo rising and this will get hit by both Mars and Saturn next week at the conjunction. Moreover, tr Mars will square the natal Mars (8 SC) creating a very intense and bearish configuration. This again confirms the likelihood that next week will be worse than this week. While Japanese markets have outperformed most other global markets thus far this year (the key indexes are both running Jupiter dasha), there’s a decent chance it will play catch up on the downside in the second week of July. I think a close below 13,000 is likely.

As predicted, the Euro is coming off a solid week and starts at 1.5787, well above our 1.57 target. I think the Euro will have a tougher road this week as tr. Mars is closer to the equal 12th house cusp. We might see some gains in the US dollar early in the week which might push it down below 1.57. I think the buying will return later in the week, however, as the Moon transits the 10th and 11th houses in the natal chart. Overall, I think we’ll finish near our current levels, maybe slightly above. The week following looks stronger so it’s possible that the 1.60 level might be broken then as tr Mercury hits the 10th cusp.

As predicted, Gold had a good week against a flagging US dollar, rising above $900 and it opens Monday at $931. It’s likely got more juice in the tank this week but it may be volatile. The charts show a conflicting picture. The iShares Comex Gold ETF chart (Jan 21 2005 9.30 NY) looks good as tr Jupiter in the 11th conjunct Sun and Mercury is reinforced by the aspect from transiting Venus. Tuesday may not be great, however, as tr Mercury and Moon oppose the Mars in this chart. Tr Venus conjoins the natal Saturn in the futures chart which may also be bearish. Wednesday and Thursday should see a return to strength as Moon and Sun will transit under the aspect of the Futures natal Jupiter. Hopefully, that puts Gold in the plus column for the week. The following week looks more uncertain. I’d be skeptical about any lasting up moves here. By contrast, I prefer the last week of July as the start of a lasting rally.

As predicted, Oil is coming off another bullish week as prices topped out at $142 before closing just above $140. With tr Mercury passing over the ascendant in the Futures and ETF chart under Rahu’s aspect, this up trend is likely to continue. Wednesday the 2nd looks very strong as tr Venus comes under benefic aspect of Jupiter in the ETF chart. This current rally is likely to end July 8-10 when the Mars-Saturn opposes the natal Venus in the ETF chart while tr Mercury conjoins the natal Mars. We may be above $150 by then, so the decline might be sudden and take us back under $135. Another major rally is likely to start in the last week of July.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 6/29/2008 06:38:00 PM

June 22 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 6/22/2008 02:35:00 PM

June 15 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 6/14/2008 10:22:00 PM

June 8 Weekly Forecast

Stocks in New York plunged 3% on Friday and ended the week lower as the Dow closed at 12,209 and the S&P at 1360. This confirmed last week’s bearish forecast for Friday in particular and for the negative trend on the week. If anything, I underestimated the extent of the pullback as I had thought the larger declines would come the week following with Mars conjoining Ketu. These declines are still imminent, however, so we will likely see more downside here. The end of the week looks especially negative with the tr Sun-Venus squaring Uranus and the tr Mars moving in close to Ketu as it conjoins the natal Uranus in the 1792 chart. If the market manages some gains midweek, it may limit the losses to perhaps 2-3%. But that looks like a best case scenario. The Dow may re-test its March lows of 11,750 at some point, while the S&P may find itself approaching its winter support level of 1320. Monday looks quite negative, while Tuesday will probably see a significant snapback rally as the Moon trines Jupiter. Buckle up.

Tokyo has stood up rather well of late and the Nikkei is still well above 14,000. This is about to change, however, as tr Saturn will square the natal 11th house Venus in the TSE chart. Monday will be predictably terrible, but look for a larger than NY’s 3% loss as the transiting Moon conjoins both the transiting Saturn and the natal Saturn of this chart. Expect the short term low to occur early next week (June 16-18) as tr Sun-Venus will pass over the equal 12th house cusp. I think it will decline below 13,000.

The Euro had a big day Friday against the US dollar and closed at 1.5778. Its gain of 2 cents on the week was broadly in line with our bullish forecast. I think the Euro will continue to move higher this week as tr Sun-Venus is aspecting the natal chart ruler Mercury. 1.60 is well within reach. Tuesday may be the best day of the week, as the Tr Moon falls under the benefic aspect of natal Jupiter. Friday may also have some significant upside as Tr Venus conjoins the natal Moon in the 10th house. That may be an indicator of a new all-time high in the Euro against the dollar.

Oil had a record-setting day on Friday as it closed up over $10 to finish at $138. I had forecast that there would be a second leg up in this rally with the Sun-Venus conjunction moving to the ascendant of the futures chart, although I had thought it would not arrive until this week. Clearly, another major speculative rally is underway. Part of the difficulty calling the top concerns the ambiguity of the futures chart itself. Its exact time of inception is unknown. If it is in fact 9.00 a.m as Friday’s rally would strongly suggest given the impact of Sun and Venus passing over the ascendant, then the rally may not have that much further to go. One possible sign of a top would be the Sun and Venus falling under the exact aspect of Rahu on Tuesday and Wednesday. I don’t think it will be done then, however, as Sun and Venus will trine Neptune on Friday. Neptune is considered by many astrologers to be the significator for oil. It’s usually impossible calling the date and level of the exact market top but I think Friday is the most likely candidate. I have no idea what the price might be by then. $150 seems almost certain given all the talk, and it may be much higher than that. Whatever day it turns out to be, I don’t think we will see much downward movement until perhaps the Mercury station on the 19th. This will be aspected by the Jupiter in the Oil futures chart, so its separation from this favourable energy may take some of the enthusiasm out of this market.

With the result of the dollar weakeness, Gold rose sharply on Friday and closed at $899. While my forecast mixed up the days for the larger price movements, I did mention $900 as a possible close and I did allude to increased volatility. It’s noteworthy that the greater than normal number of aspects in the Gold futures chart equated to a big gain, even though many of the aspects involved malefics and supposedly hard aspects. I think Gold is likely headed higher this week, although there is an opposition aspect from tr Mars to the natal Moon in the ETF chart that makes me wonder if we won’t see at least one negative day. $920 seems within reach. Monday looks positive as tr Moon will be aspected by the natal Jupiter. I think this short term up trend will probably continue into early next week, up until about June 18th. Actually, there seems to be a general bullish trend until perhaps the first week of July when Sun and Venus will be aspected by the natal Jupiter. I would not be surprised to see gold at $950 by then.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 6/07/2008 12:15:00 PM

June 1 2008 Weekly Forecast

New York is coming off a modest gain last week and starts at 12,638/1400. Monday looks bearish as Moon will fall under square aspect of Saturn. Tuesday may see a nice bounce back as Moon joins the Sun Venus in Taurus. Friday looks bearish as Moon is in Cancer with Mars and Ketu and Cancer rises at the start of the trading day. Overall, we probably won’t end up too far from current levels, although there seems to be more downside risk here.

The Euro slipped under 1.56 and begins trading Monday at 1.5536. I had thought it would fare better, although I was cautious overall as I expected a pullback the following week. As it turned out, I was a few days early. Monday will bode well as Mercury gradually backs away from the negative influence of the natal Ketu. I don’t foresee a huge move either way this week, although the the bias seems to be on the upside.

As predicted, Oil fell below $130 last week and begins the week at $127. I think we may see strength Monday and Tuesday as Moon, Sun and Venus are all in Taurus in close aspect to the futures natal Jupiter. There could be another rally towards $130. Any early week highs probably won’t hold as the rest of the week looks middling. The week following looks stronger.

Gold had a tough week and fell back to $890. While I had been bullish last week, I did forecast a decline back to the $900 level for the following week so I jumped the gun there also. Gold looks bullish Monday and maybe into Tuesday. But I’m interested to see what the effect of the tr. Mars conjoining the natal Moon in the futures chart. Also, tr Sun and Venus will oppose the natal Mars. Those are some potentially troublesome influences, and yet I’m reluctant to forecast further declines here. If anything, it suggest activity and probably volatility. One possible scenario is a rise towards $910 early in the week and a drop back below $900 towards the end of the week.

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 06/01/2008 at 10.10 PM

May 25 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/25/2008 08:39:00 AM

May 18 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/18/2008 01:28:00 PM

May 11 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/11/2008 01:11:00 PM

May 4 2008 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/04/2008 04:23:00 PM

April 27 2008 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 4/27/2008 01:36:00 PM

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/25/2008 08:39:00 AM

May 18 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/18/2008 01:28:00 PM

May 11 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/11/2008 01:11:00 PM

May 4 2008 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/04/2008 04:23:00 PM

April 27 2008 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 4/27/2008 01:36:00 PM

April 20 2008 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 4/20/2008 02:00:00 PM

April 13 2008 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 4/13/2008 08:02:00 PM

April 6, 2008 Weekly Forecast

Posted by Christopher Kevill at 4/06/2008 01:13:00 PM

March 30, 2008 Weekly Forecast

March 23 2008 Weekly Forecast

The NYSE is coming off a life-saving rally last week. This week will be a crucial opportunity for a respite with recent nervousness. Certainly, there are some nice planetary configurations to factor in, particularly the equal degree alignment between Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, and Uranus. While this is a fairly rare occurrence, I don’t think it will result in a big gain. That’s partially due to a fairly bearish-looking March 21 Full Moon that featured an ascendant hemmed in between Mars and Saturn/Ketu. We will have days with large rises, probably on Tuesday and to a lesser extent on Thursday. But the overall market will remain mixed and I believe we will close Friday within 1% of our present levels, probably on the downside. I will make some revised daily forecasts through the week.

Monday looks modestly negative (<1%) as the Moon is in Rahu/Saturn at the open. If the market drops more than 1%, the week will be worse than I thought. Tuesday appears to be the best day (+2%) as the Moon is in Jupiter’s nakshatra while completing that upbeat configuration of aforementioned planets. Look for the rally to fade in the afternoon after perfection of the lunar aspect. Wednesday looks like the worst day (-2%) as the Moon is in Saturn/Mercury and squares the Saturn-Nodes. Thursday’s Moon is in Mercury’s star while the planet of trading enjoys a strong placement. I’m expecting at least a rise of 1%. Friday looks modestly negative as the Moon transits Mercury-Saturn. There is a chance for a larger loss here of perhaps 2% but more likely it will be held to 1% on late buying.

Tokyo will likely track higher this week as the Full Moon showed a clustering of benefics around the ascendant. The Nikkei starts the week at 12,482 and we may see 13k at some point. Monday looks good. Wednesday appears to be the best day, with gains over 2% possible. Friday may be negative as the Moon enters the 6th house of the TSE chart.

Bombay starts the week at 14,994 and will likely end the week in negative territory reinforcing the bearishness. The Full Moon occurred opposite the natal Saturn in the BSE chart and the transiting Sun is between the natal Saturn-Ketu conjunction. Things may get grim here, and we may go below 14,000k at some point. Thursday looks worst.

After the more modest rate cut and revival of confidence in the US dollar, a lot of investors cut their inflation hedge instruments and got out of gold, oil and the Euro. As a result, the Euro fell back under $1.55. I think it’s due to rise again this week back near its recent highs, perhaps to $1.57 or $1.58. We are likely looking at an up week here, with real strength towards the end of the week. $1.60 is very possible. The following week also looks bullish for the Euro, even if other commodities continue to weaken.

Opening the week at $101, Oil looks like it will continue to weaken this week. We may go lower than $98. Thursday looks like a gain as the Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter. Friday looks bearish.

Gold looks like it may be in better shape this week to rise above its $920 open, although it’s not likely to resume its frenetic bull run for a little while, perhaps in May or June. Monday looks like a gain, especially in the afternoon. Tuesday also has the potential to move up, although things may get shaky after that. Overall, I think we’ll end the week lower, but the declines will be more orderly suggesting a consolidation near $850-900 may be taking place. We may test below $900 at some point.

March 16 2008 Weekly Forecast

NY starts the week at 11,951/1288. This looks like another negative week upcoming as a number of hard aspects are perfecting. In the background there is the promise of some upside as a harmonically favourable relationship between Jupiter and Uranus is forming. I still think this has another week to go before we see any big upwards movement from it, however. Monday should decline by at least 1% as Mercury opposes Saturn. Friday also looks quite bearish. I think we’ll see new intraday and closing lows (below 11,500/1270) at some point in NY in the week, possibly as low as 11,250/1250.

Tokyo and Bombay will follow suit . The Nikkei starts at 12,241 and is already down below 12k in early Monday trading. I think we’ll see a range from 12,500 to 11,400 during the week and it will close below 12k by Friday. The Sensex opens at 15,760 Monday and will likely finish below that level by Friday, possibly near 15k. A range between 16,200 and 14,500 is possible.

The Euro continues on its bull run this week and into the Spring. Monday and Tuesday look fantastic and we should see at least a 2 cent gain in those days, perhaps getting us as high as 1.60 by week’s end. We are in good position to ride the Euro significantly higher by May.

Oil is due for a pullback this week as tr Sun squares Ketu and Neptune while Mercury and Venus square Uranus-Jupiter. While some new intraday highs above $111 are possible, I think the safer bet is the downside, perhaps as low as $105. And given the recent speculative volatility of this market, I would not be surprised to see crude to fall below that.

Gold is shining brightly this week and will add to last week’s historic gains. While we may see lows in the $990 range, it will close above $1010 by Friday, probably at least $1020-1030.

March 9 2008 Weekly Forecast

In keeping with our previous forecast, American markets turned bearish last week as key indexes broke through their previous January lows. This week is likely to be similarly negative with serious retesting of the Jan 22 intraday lows (11,500/1270). I expect to the market to break through those levels at least on an intraday basis. Thursday may be decidedly negative as the transiting Sun opposes the natal Mars of the NYSE chart. Friday’s close also looks like a decline so we should finish lower than Monday’s open. The week after next (esp Monday the 17th) looks more negative so investors looking for exitable rallies would do well to act this week or wait a couple more weeks. That said, I think we won’t see 13,000/1420 for many months, or perhaps even next year.

Bombay and Tokyo are also coming off tough weeks. The Sensex is unlikely to experience any great recovery this week. In fact, I think we’ll end up lower than where we started at 15,975. Tuesday looks like the most bullish day. Starting the week at 12,782, the Nikkei will also retest lows this week given the transiting Saturn square to the natal Venus in the TSE chart. Rallies will be weak and may not go much above 13,000, while the intraday downside may see 12,000.

The decline in the US dollar and the rise in the Euro will continue, although I think the gains may be more modest this week. Monday looks mostly negative, perhaps will dips near 1.525. The rest of the week seems stronger overall with a rise into Friday. Next week looks like there will be more upside beyond 1.55.

Oil is likely to continue higher. Monday may be negative, but the upward trend with resume on Tuesday. We may see $110 at some point this week. Thursday looks like a big gain.

Gold starts the week at $972 and is poised to hit $1000 and yet I’m questioning my faith that it will break through this week. Monday looks the most volatile but I’m not certain if the market will stay positive. A decline for Tuesday seems likely. Wednesday looks strongest. Retracement is likely for Thursday with Friday as an up day that may take us over the top. We should end the week higher than where we started.

March 2 2008 Weekly Forecast

Equity markets are probably headed lower this week. The question is: will they break through support levels? My initial reading of the charts says yes, although things will be clearer by midweek. The end of the week looks most negative, so if we can get some up days in the early part of the week, then the indexes may not break decisively through. In NY, I do think we’ll end up lower than where we start (12,266 on the Dow and 1330 on the S&P), but possibly not by much. Right now, I’d say we have a greater than 50% chance of breaking down below 12,000/1320 at least on an intraday basis. Nonetheless, any rallies to 12,500/1360 that may occur early on should be seen as exit points from the market. Venus and Mercury will oppose the natal Uranus in the NYSE chart through much of the week, so expect a lot of volatility.

Tokyo and Bombay’s BSE are also headed lower from their present levels. The Nikkei may fare better of the two, although it will seriously retest its January low of 12,572. The Sensex will probably drop below its previous February low of 16,600, especially by Thursday as Mercury and Venus oppose the natal Mars in the BSE chart. It has the potential to be a fairly nasty time with daily declines on the order of 3-5%.

Gold, oil and the Euro will continue on their bullish trends although not as strongly or consistently as in the past couple weeks. The Euro will continue strong but later in the week beginning Wednesday there will be significant declines, perhaps back to 1.51 or lower. Monday and Tuesday will not see any major selloffs. As we said last week, gold is a good bet to move past $1000 this week. Oil is vulnerable to declines this week, so rallies beyond $102 will not likely not last. I think we’ll see oil back under $100 for at least intermittently through the week and by the close Friday.

I will post some more time-specific revised forecasts in my commentary through the week.

February 24, 2008 Weekly Forecast

American markets have been trading within a fairly narrow range for the past few weeks. This will continue this week. The best days will probably be Monday and Tuesday where may see 12,600 on the Dow and 1380 on the S&P on an intraday basis. The mood will turn negative on Wednesday and Thursday as the market will retreat back to those old familiar support levels we saw tested last week. Friday should start with a good rally as the Moon is in good aspect to Jupiter, but the indicators are mixed to negative after that, so short term traders would be advised to sell while the market is rising in the morning. Overall, I think the market will finish close to where it started the week (12,381/1353) but I think we’re more likely to finish higher.

Tokyo will probably end the week a little lower. Monday looks positive, as does Friday, but in between we will see some declines. The Wednesday open stands out as a substantial sell-off. Overall, we are likely to see a retesting of 13,000 on the Nikkei but may finish in the 13,300 to 13,600 range.

Bombay’s best days of the week will also likely be Monday and Friday, but it will be tough sledding to keep the Sensex above its current level of 17,369 by Friday. Probably we will finish below that level around 17,000. The best chance for a midweek rally is Wednesday, although this will lose some strength at the close. Thursday’s close will likely be negative as Moon squares Saturn.

The Euro will likely continue its rally this week and finish above its current levels of 1.485. It will go above 1.49 at some point and may even touch 1.495, although it may occasionally slip below 1.48. Look for a sell-off Monday at midday CET as the Moon aspects Saturn. The best rally of the week will probably be Wednesday late afternoon CET.

Oil will likely push through $100 again this week, but this time it will probably hold above that psychological threshold. Prices will retreat Monday morning EST, but then move higher from there. Thursday looks like a day of consolidation with the rally resuming Friday.

Gold is rallying lately but I think sentiment will turn more cautious this week. The best rallies are likely Monday or Tuesday, both early in the day EST. We will probably close about $950 on one or both of those days. But the rest of the week looks less optimistic, so I think we’ll probably finish the week below $940.

February 17, 2008 Weekly Forecast

Last week we successfully called the up week for the American markets. This week looks more iffy though, so I think the market will struggle to maintain its current levels of Dow 12,348 and S&P 1349. It will may drop below support levels of 12,200 and 1320 on an intraday basis early in the week. Monday afternoon looks bad, but Wednesday at midday looks good and this may signal a reverse of market sentiment for the rest of the week. I’m less certain about the final levels of the NY market this week, but going out on a limb, I would say that they will finish up, perhaps making it to13,500 on the Dow and 1360 on the S&P.

Tokyo is coming off a decent week as forecasted here when it finished at 13,622. I’m less sanguine about the NIKKEI this week however as the Sun-Saturn opposition will fall very close to the Asc-Dsc of the Topix index chart while Sun will oppose the natal Saturn in the TSE chart. But there is a battle here since Venus will conjoin the natal Jupiter at the same time, on Feb 19-20. My sense is the negativity of the Sun-Saturn will push the market down on Monday and Tuesday, but on Wednesday, the market will recover. So we’ll probably drop back to 13,000 early on, and then recover and perhaps exceed 13,600 by week’s end. Friday looks good, so we will probably finish higher than last Friday’s close. This chart is not looking good for May however, as Saturn will station on its natal position. Be afraid, be very afraid.

Bombay’s SENSEX was up last week, and finished at 18,115. The good times will likely continue through this week, although early in the week looks more tentative. Tuesday could be a down day however, as a decline will hit the market in the afternoon IST. Thursday and Friday look better, and we may see the index climb past 19,000. Monday and Tuesday of the following week will see big up days so staying long over the weekend will likely pay off handsomely.

The Euro is coming off its best week in months. I expect it to drop significantly Monday, maybe back to 1.46 as the US dollar will strengthen to 0.685. But the basic trend will be upwards this week. If buying on dips, another drop is likely Wednesday morning EST. The high will occur on Friday, although I don’t see it eclipsing last Friday’s high of 1.4685 by much. I think the medium term rally is still in place for the Euro at least until April 5 (to 1.50?), after which a major decline is likely.

Gold is probably going to start the week slowly. Some pullbacks below $900 are likely, especially in Asia Monday morning (local time) and Tuesday morning in NY. Venus will be square natal Uranus on Tuesday, so that points to a volatile price that may enjoy short but ultimately weak rallies that do not hold. Prices will rise by Thursday, however, so that should put us convincingly over $900 and probably back approaching $920 by Friday. It could even go higher, so the trend is your friend. Look for the week’s high to occur midday Friday in New York EST. The week after looks even better.

Oil is likely to continue its recent upward climb this week. Mercury is stationing at the Sun-Jupiter midpoint while Jupiter will trine the natal Venus exactly this week. The biggest price rise will probably happen on Tuesday morning EST. We may see oil go past $97 a barrel then. Wednesday will see a pullback, probably back close below $95. Look for a higher short term peak early in the following week on Feb 25-26. $100 is very possible in the next two weeks.

February 10 2008 Weekly Forecast

We did well last week as markets retreated back near their support levels as forecast. The Dow finished slightly under our target of 12,200-12,400 and the S&P was within range as it closed at 1331. The markets aren’t likely to breakout of their current range this week. In New York, the early part of the week looks uncommitted, with minimal testing on the downside and modest rally attempts. I don’t foresee the indices falling through current support levels, however. Expect to see a decent rally near the close Monday. With a broader rally starting by late Wednesday or early Thursday, we may see highs above 12,500 on the Dow and perhaps 1360-1380 on the S&P. I am forecasting a generally up week.

The Japanese market looks pretty uninspired this week, although Thursday and Friday should see some gains as tr. Venus conjoins the natal Moon and trines Jupiter. But the general planetary architecture suggests any rallies won’t get too far. I expect the market to move between 12.8K and 13.5K with the latter figure representing a target for the Friday close. Next week’s Mercury station squares the natal Saturn in the natal chart, so we can look for lows to punch through the 13K support level then and test the January lows of 12.6K.

Bombay will follow the basic trend of negative to even start to the week (Monday looks the worst) and then look for an move upward Wednesday by midday. Thursday looks positive with a possibility of some profit taking Friday.

The Euro will start the week continuing its recent fall against the greenback. It may fall as low as 1.44. Wednesday there will be a turnaround rally that stretches into Thursday, so we can expect to see it back above 1.45 at least. Thursday morning EST appears to be a high. Friday may be a day of consolidation.

Gold will open the week strong with a decent gain as Venus returns to its natal position. But the rest of week looks indifferent with tr. Mercury falling under Ketu’s aspect, so a pullback to $900 is possible.

February 3 2008 Weekly Forecast

I’m happy to say that last week went more or less according to plan. I thought the markets would end higher and they did, by about 5%. The best weekly performance in several years. The Dow started the week at 12,200 and ended at 12,750. I had forecast at least 12,500 and possibly hitting 12,800. I was somewhat off in my day timing however, since I thought Wed and Thur would be the nice gains. As it was, the gains came Thurs and Fri. Monday was also a good up day. My call on the Euro was broadly correct since it was largely up against the US dollar although it did finish lower on Friday as forecast at 1.48. This was a little higher than I thought since I had thought it would settle back to 1.475. But at least I got the direction right.

This week will be more tentative all around. I do not expect the Dow to maintain this level (12,850) by Friday as the negative indicators outnumber the positive. There will probably be an intraday retesting of last week’s levels at 12,200 (1320 on the S&P) and a down mood will predominate. Monday the 4th afternoon looks negative, while Wednesday and Thursday (6th and 7th) look very volatile and largely negative as transiting Sun and Mercury oppose the natal Uranus and Ascendant in the NYSE chart. Look for greater than 1% declines, especially on Wednesday. Thursday afternoon will probably be less of a decline as there will be a substantial rally in the afternoon. There should be a rally Friday morning but it likely won’t hold and the averages will probably finish in the red that day. We’ll be lucky to finish the week above 12,500. I think a more realistic target will be near 12,200-12,400 and 1320-1340 on the S&P.

Tokyo by contrast looks neutral to bullish this week. Monday (4th) looks positive, and Wednesday (6th) looks like a solid up day, too, although the market is likely to finish with a loss on Friday(8th). Still, it should be in the green overall. Bombay looks slightly bullish as it starts with a strong Monday (4th). Wednesday afternoon looks negative though as Moon is aspected by Rahu. The negative sentiment will carry through Thursday (7th) with a down day. Friday will be an up day that should put the Sensex in positive territory for the week. We’ll see how far above water it can remain.

The Euro looks mildly bearish this week but look for short term highs Tuesday morning local time as Moon conjoins the natal Venus. Thursday afternoon looks rough. It will probably fall back below 1.47 and finish the week near that level.

Gold looks slightly bearish this week. It might slip below $900 this week and may even finish below. But it does not look like another major downward leg. Watch for short term lows Wednesday a.m EST (6th) as the Moon falls under the spell of Ketu for a while. There ought to be a nice finish to the week with a big price rise Friday afternoon EST. It may even push back above $900 or perhaps even $910.

January 27 2008 Weekly Forecast

Although the Dow did break below 12,000, last week was much better than many had feared thanks to an emergency rate cut from the Fed. That said, the market had largely stabilized by the end of the week and a short term bottom has formed around 12,000. This is largely in keeping with my preceding forecast. The Rahu effect on the transiting Sun was also keenly felt as predicted as the market fell almost 200 points on Friday. While the market may test the 12,000 support level on an intraday basis in the next week, I think the movement will be mostly on the upside in the coming days. The main aspect pushing it upwards is the applying conjunction of Venus and Jupiter. It is important to note, however, that prices will be bullish because of where they fall in the natal chart of the NYSE. They will exactly trining the close natal Venus-MC conjunction. This trine aspect becomes exact on the 30th and 31st (Wed and Thurs) and we should see the Dow rise significantly, probably past 12,500 and perhaps pushing towards 12,800. Watch for a decline Friday morning on profit taking. Markets worldwide will follow this basic pattern for the most part. The Tokyo stock exchange chart is similarly oriented to move higher in the middle of the week. The Euro will start the week falling against the US dollar but will rally by Tuesday or Thursday as the Euro chart also benefits from the Venus-Jupiter conjunction. Expect high trading volumes and extreme volatility mid-week as the now retrograde Mercury sits on natal Ketu(SN). This creates a schizophrenic market that can quickly oscillate between upward and downward movements. Given the turbulence, the mid-week rally may attempt the 1.475 level but it’s unlikely to be there by Friday. The Euro will strengthen through February and March. Look for a high in the first week of April.

January 21 2008 Weekly Forecast

With global markets dropping on average 5% today, we can look for the Dow to break decisively through the 12,000 support level on Tuesday. It comes as no surprise given our bearish prediction for January (see Jan 7 Update below) Perhaps the size of the drop is a little shocking, but we can see how our key indicators have correctly forecast the current meltdown. The NYSE chart is running Saturn-Sun, with the Sun coming under Ketu’s malefic aspect in the natal chart. That creates the possibility of weakness that can be exploited by stressful transits and progressions. The transiting nodes are currently squaring natal Mercury creating great instability in trading. The afflictions in the secondary progressed chart we are entering a serious bear market owing to the simultaneous perfection of P2 Venus square P2 Neptune and P2 Asc conjunct P2 Pluto square P2 Jupiter. Since we have to allow for some orb on these aspects, we have to apply them to a time frame of up to two years. A more precise timing of this decline can be seen in the tertiary progressed chart which features P3 Mercury retrograde station occurring square P3 Saturn within one degree (exact November 07) while P3 Mars squares P3 Neptune on the Descendant (exact April 08). Clearly this decline will be sizable and take us out of the realm of a correction and put us into a bear market territory.

I think we will likely see a short term bottom this week, although watch for increased volatility and new lows Thursday and Friday as the Sun falls under trinal aspect of natal Rahu. I am looking for some rallies in Feb and March and beyond, especially as P4 Sun trines P4 Jupiter (Mar 17) and P4 Venus trines P4 Pluto (Apr 12). I expect January lows to be re-tested during the period of late April and May as the antardasha period switches to the Moon, and Ketu aspects it closely while Saturn retrogrades back towards a close square to the Sun. It’s not going to be pretty, folks. Look for new lows for the year to be set then.

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NYSE Composite with transits 1/7/08Jan 7 2008 Forecast Update The markets have sagged in the past month on continuing credit crunch fallout, rising oil prices and subsequent inflationary fears, and the prospect of a full-blown recession. I think the Dow is likely to be weak or decline through January, but then move up in February as Saturn separates from the Mercury in the NYSE chart. The upward trend in prices should continue until April, or perhaps May. A sudden and sharp fall (>10%) will likely occur then and break the prevailing upbeat mood on Wall St. Look for more frequent updates here as we head through this turbulent period.

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Aug 20 2007 Forecast Update

The markets have corrected by more than 10% as a result of the US credit crunch in the past few weeks. I originally had forecast a rally in the summer that would last into the beginning of August after which we would see declines. (see below). This was a little off in terms of timing, since the high occurred in July, but it is significant that most of the decline did occur after the Jupiter station of August 6th, as I previously forecast. There may be some minor rallies in the next week before the total Lunar Eclipse of Aug 28th, but it is doubtful that it will be sustainable. Look for volatility and some triple digit losses in early Sept. I believe we have already seen the market highs for the year, although there is a possibility of other rallies in September and October that might come close. November and December look bearish, so investors would do well to consider these buying opportunities. I expect a significant market run-up in early 2008 leading into the Spring.

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Mar 22 2007 Forecast Update

Markets around the world started 2007 on a cautious note as January’s new highs were erased after markets caught the Shanghai flu. Most markets are off their highs at the time of writing (late March). The outlook remains mixed at best for the rest of the year, with a greater risk of larger declines going into the Fall. Based on my analysis of the relevant horoscopes, this year is likely to yield poor returns to investors.

For the US markets, the chart I like to use is the NYSE Composite Index chart (launched May 6 1982 10.00 am). While the New York Stock Exchange famously began on Wall Street under a buttonwood tree on the morning of May 17 1792, the actual time is a matter of some debate. And once you factor in numerous re-incorporations of the exchange over the years, you increase the margin of error well above and beyond whatever ever significant amout of error already exists in astrology, to say nothing of my interpretation of it.

NYSE Composite chart with transits for May 1, 2007In a nutshell, the February-March decline can be blamed on two afflictions to the Sun in the natal chart from Saturn and Ketu. The approaching square from transit Saturn to the Sun will tend to depress prices until it begins forward motion at the end of April. The Sun is doubly important to this chart because it is placed in the 11th house of gains. The exact trine from Ketu represents another layer of affliction to the Sun around that time and explains the relatively unenthusiastic snapback of the New York markets in the wake of the initial sell-off. Attempts at rallies probably won’t get very far as the mood will be tentative.

A significant summer rally is likely as Jupiter stations making a fairly close aspect to Mercury. It’s still three degrees off so it’s unlikely to be that strong, but it will probably represent a notable shift in investor sentiment towards optimism — at least for a while. Once Jupiter turns direct on August 7th, however, the market will again be susceptible to declines. At this time, the nodes will station in a tight square to Mercury which also happens to be the bhukti lord so the medium term and 2007 market top will likely happen before the Fall.

NYSE Composite with transits for October 1, 2007The real troubles will appear in the Fall, especially once the Ketu bhukti has begun on October 1st. At this time, Ketu will still be in square aspect to Mercury (trading) and Saturn will have moved to join Ketu in mid-Leo to form its most malefic 10th house aspect. This period will see substantial losses that will likely erase whatever gains had accrued thus far in the year. I also don’t see enough positive configurations that would point to a powerful Santa Claus rally. Overall, the index is most likely to close lower (perhaps a lot lower) on December 31, 2007 than it was on January 1, 2007.

TSE Topix Index chart with transits for Oct 1, 2007 Japanese Stocks

The likelihood of a substantial (i.e. >10%) worldwide market decline in the Fall 2007 is supported by an analysis of the Japanese stock market. Using the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Topix index launch date (July 1, 1969 9.00 am), we can see that powerful Saturn-Ketu conjunction sitting atop the Ascendant of this chart. Hard to see anything bullish coming of that combination unless you’re long in Eli Lilly. This chart is running the Rahu-Mars period which isn’t anything to write home about either. In January 2008, however, Jupiter dasha begins which signals an improvement in sentiment and hopefully higher prices in the long term.

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