(18 November 2019) We are still three weeks away from the UK election on 12 December, but it seems that Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson is poised to win.  Recent polls show the Conservatives with a healthy 10-12 point lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party with both the LDP and Brexit Party trailing far behind.  It would seem that the election is Johnson’s to lose at this point. 

The Pound and UK stock market have been rallying in recent days in anticipation of a Conservative victory.  A majority government would finally end the uncertainty over Brexit and secure Johnson’s October deal with the EU. 

As I have previously stated, I think Boris Johnson is very likely to win this election.  He will begin his Mercury-Venus dasha period just four days after the election indicating generally positive outcomes for him over the next three years.  Both Mercury and Venus are benefic planets, and both enjoy favourable placements in his chart.  Mercury is ruler of his 1st and 10th houses and placed in Taurus in the 9th house of law and good fortune.   Venus rules the 2nd and 9th houses and is well placed in the 10th house of status conjunct the Sun and Rahu in Gemini.  Moreover, Mercury and Venus exchange signs and thus create an even more powerful interaction during this three-year dasha period.

On election day, Jupiter will be opposite his Venus-Sun in the 10th house thus giving him a boost in status.  Transiting Sun will be opposite his Mercury which should also be seen as generally positive.   However, Rahu will conjoin the 10th house cusp and eventually Rahu’s natal position in late February.  While Rahu may have a troublesome side, it tends to do well in the 10th house so I would see this Rahu influence as a plus, although it could also correlate with some unexpected and complicating developments.  It may somewhat increase the odds for a minority "hung" parliament in which the Conservatives do not win more than half the seats.  The Mars transit to Neptune and opposite Jupiter is also a bit suspect and may not adhere to a classic script of a clear victory. 

We can see a possible problem here when we look the chart of Nigel Farage, the leader of the Brexit Party.  While Farage has agreed to not contest Tory-held seats, his Brexit Party could play an important role in the event of a minority government.  Farage’s chart is actually fairly good as the Jupiter-Uranus alignment lines up quite nicely with his natal Mercury in the 9th house.  Whatever the result, this pattern suggests that Farage stands to gain somehow around the time of the UK election. 

An obvious interpretation would be that his Brexit Party holds the balance of power after December 12th.  Or maybe he is just happy that Boris Johnson wins so that Brexit is finally done.  That seems like a bit of a stretch since he is not a big fan of Boris Johnson and his deal with the EU.  Other manifestations are also possible given the many layers of intrigue and influence that are at work behind the scenes in the UK these days.  In the longer term, Farage seems unlikely to wield much power.  He is running the Rahu-Saturn dasha now which is usually not very auspicious. 

Overall, Boris is likely to be returned as Prime Minister but there is a modest risk that he will not win an outright majority.  This could then extend the Brexit uncertainty all over again, although one would think that Farage’s Brexit Party will be a more willing and cooperative coalition partner than the DUP was in the previous Parliament with Theresa May.  Nonetheless, the more likely scenario is that Boris wins outright. 

Remainers do not have the stars on their side here.  Corbyn’s horoscope doesn’t seem very strong.  We have only an approximate birth time for him so I am reluctant to read too much into it.  Generally, his horoscope doesn’t suggest some sudden reversal of fortunes for him. 

Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have generally continued their melt-up over the past two weeks as the recent Fed interventions in the market have encouraged more money to flow into risky assets like equities.  Previously, I had expected some upside from the entry of Jupiter into sidereal Sagittarius in early November.  However, I had been uncertain how long this boost would last.  Indian and Chinese stocks have gone sideways or down since that early November Jupiter ingress.  It still seems more likely than not that US and European equities will pullback this week and next although December still offers some upside hope to the bulls given the Jupiter-Uranus-Chiron alignment in the middle of the month. 

Mercury completes its retrograde cycle on Wednesday this week so there is some downside risk there.  These Mercury direct stations are not bearish by nature but this time Mercury will align with Rahu which is a more problematic combination.  Bulls should be therefore be careful.   Both Tuesday and Wednesday are more vulnerable to declines than they otherwise would be.

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