(12 February 2024) US stocks extended their rally as strong jobless data and a downward inflation revision raised hopes for rate cuts later in the year. The S&P 500 gained more than 1% to close at 5026 while the Nasdaq-100 finished the week at 17,962. This bullish outcome was in line with expectations as I thought the midweek Sun-Venus-Rahu-Uranus alignment would likely offset any early week selling.
With the macro data and megacap earnings coming in fairly strong the soft landing scenario is still very much the consensus view even as bond yields creep higher. The market melt-up could therefore continue as long as these current trends remain intact. However, interest-rate sensitive stocks may become more vulnerable if the 10-year yield moves above key resistance at 4.25%. With the latest CPI report due on Tuesday, an unexpectedly high inflation number could see yields pop to that level from their current 4.17%. A sharp rise in yields would also take the dollar higher and could deepen the negative divergences within the equity market. Typically, a strong dollar and rising yields are bearish for stocks. Conversely, a lower number or one that is in line with expectations would likely keep the rally going a while longer.
The planetary outlook remains uncertain. The transit picture looks somewhat less bullish now that Jupiter is separating from its 60-degree alignment with Saturn. Jupiter matched Saturn’s speed last week and is now approaching its normal forward velocity. This is arguably a less bullish situation, although I would admit that point is somewhat speculative. Bullish sentiment may also be reaching a theoretical maximum as Jupiter conjoins the natal Venus in the NYSE chart on Monday, Feb 12…
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This week (Feb 12-16) has increasing downside risk. Monday could be somewhat positive as Jupiter forms an exact conjunction with Venus in the NYSE chart. While this conjoining of bullish planets is often positive, it can mark the end of a more bullish period and thus it can become subject to abrupt reversals. Monday’s Venus-Neptune alignment also leans bullish as it will align with the Mercury-Jupiter alignment in the natal chart. Therefore some early week upside is quite possible here. While Monday seems more bullish in this respect, we cannot rule out further upside on Tuesday. With the inflation data due on Tuesday, I would not be surprised by a positive market reaction. However, some downside also looks likely at some point this week from the Mars-Pluto conjunction. This is bearish in its own right but doubly so since it aligns with the Saturn-Neptune opposition in the NYSE chart, and also activates the 8.52 a.m. natal Ascendant. Wednesday morning’s Moon-Mars square will highlight the Mars-Pluto influence and could produce a significant down day…
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Photo Credit: Scott Beale
