(1 February 2026) Stocks were mostly lower last week amid market turbulence following the sudden crash of gold and silver prices. While the blue chip S&P 500 managed to finish the week slightly higher, all the other major indexes lost ground including the small cap Russell 2000 which fell 2%.
The decline broadly aligned with our model which suggested an elevated downside risk in and around the Mars-Pluto conjunction on Jan 27. While our backtest showed only a modest average decline of -0.5% from this pairing, it nonetheless came very close to reaching statistical significance across several time intervals. The updated cumulative trend chart below indicates an average and median underperformance for at least 6 days after the conjunction. This...
(25 January 2026) US stocks ended the week slightly lower as Greenland-related tariff fears briefly shook market confidence. President Trump calmed the early week...
(18 January 2026) Stocks ended the week slightly lower as investors pondered the future of the Fed's independence after Trump's latest comments about Fed...
(28 December 2025) Stocks pushed higher last week as favorable holiday seasonality combined with strong GDP data to fuel gains in financials and industrials. ...
(21 December 2025) Stocks were mixed last week as the inflation rate ticked lower while manufacturing data showed more signs of weakness. The NASDAQ...
(23 November 2025) Stocks moved lower last week as hopes for a December interest rate cut dwindled following hawkish comments from some Fed governors. ...
(16 November 2025) After a volatile week, US stocks finished largely unchanged as investors considered the possibility that the Fed may not cut rates...
(9 November 2025) Stocks fell sharply last week as worsening consumer sentiment data signaled economic slowing and reignited recession worries. Among the worst hit...
(2 November 2025) Stocks rebounded last week as the Fed delivered a widely-anticipated interest rate cut of 25 basis points. While investors welcomed the...
(26 October 2025) US stocks reached new all-time highs last week as the latest round of inflation data was within consensus expectations. The current...
(19 October 2025) Stocks rebounded last week after President Trump walked back his latest tariff threat against China. Gold and silver also extended their...