(8 November 2026) Stocks fell sharply last week after the Democrat sweep of the midterm elections threatened to upset the AI-driven economic growth model. Tech stocks were hit the hardest with the NASDAQ losing -5% and the S&P 500 down almost -3%. The more broadly-based NYSE Composite Index fell by -1.4%.
This decline was unexpected given the improving statistics of the alignments we are tracking. As always, there are a number of active alignments -- both bullish and bearish -- that we must consider for our assessment of the current market conditions. The inability to recognize the negative potential of last week's sell-off highlights the problem of synthesis: how to combine disparate influences into a summary estimation of probability? Up to now, I have been relying on a simple additive process in which probabilities are determined through backtesting market performance of different planetary alignments. While it is useful for identifying trends, it may not be sensitive enough to account for all short-term fluctuations.
My approach to backtesting has focused upon mean and median price changes over time and data distribution (i.e....
(1 November 2026) Stocks mostly declined last week as the rotation out of AI shares continued along with some some weaker-than-expected corporate earnings. The...
(25 October 2026) Markets remained volatile last week as AI skepticism continued to weigh on the megatech stocks. With oil prices again pushing above...
(18 October 2026) Stocks declined last week as inflation pressures and the prospect of additional interest rate hikes raised doubts about the economic viability...
(6 Sep 2026) Stocks ended the week slightly higher despite renewed inflation fears after Friday's strong jobs report. The combination of a robust labour market...
(2 August 2026) Stocks finished higher last week despite some volatility brought on by renewed hostilities between the US and Iran and another spike...
(19 July 2026) US stocks were mostly lower last week as the semi-conductor sell-off intensified on worries about AI-spending and profitability. While the NASDAQ...