Looking past the April 20 conjunction

(12 April 2026)  Stocks ended the week sharply higher on hopes that the two-week ceasefire and  reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a permanent end to the Iranian conflict.  Amid the optimism and de-escalation, oil prices fell back below $100 a barrel signaling a fundamental shift in market sentiment.

As noted in my Thursday post, much of this rebound since the March 30 low closely coincides with the Mercury-Jupiter alignment.  This 240-degree trine aspect was exact on April 3.  Based on our backtest, we found that market outcomes were likely to be positive from 6-8 days before (March 26) the alignment and continuing until 6-8 days after (April 11)

We are now entering the less-positive period as that alignment is now separating and hence weakening.  But since it is only one alignment, it does not necessarily mean that stocks will fall this week. We still need to consider the other possible influences…

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