Week of June 15 – 19 v. 2/24

Stocks in New York were mostly flat last week as investors weighed the pros and cons of improving jobs data with worry over rising treasury yields.  Markets traded within a fairly narrow range with the Dow closing at 8799 and the S&P at 946.   While I was leaning towards a more bullish outcome, I recognized the possibility that the favourable Mercury-Jupiter aspect could be offset from the negative influence from the mirroring velocity of Mercury and Mars.  Since these two opposite influences came exact so close together on Tuesday and Wednesday, they appear to have cancelled each other out.  Monday’s Venus-Pluto also did not produce any significant buying, so that reduced the chances for significant gains for the week.  The modest late week rise was somewhat surprising coming as it did without any clear positive aspects, but the reservoir of Jupiter-Neptune bullishness is seemingly bottomless in this market so the "buy" default setting seems to kick in when there are few other influences.  From a technical perspective, the market still seems uncertain of future direction.  The narrowing trading band in June points to some kind of major breakout move up or down quite soon.  The market is still trading well above support in the rising price channel and would have to move down to SPX 920 to test that support.  Volume remains modest at best, even with the seasonal trading lull approaching.  MACD shows shrinking histograms and the makings of a bearish crossover, so that too also offers some succour to the bears.   The convergence of the 50 and 200 day moving average is fast approaching and such as "golden cross" would be seen by many as a bullish signal.   I don’t know if we’ll see this in June, but if the cross does happen it would bring new money into the market and allow for that final push up above Dow 10,000 before it all falls apart by September.

This week begins with Jupiter, the Great Benefic, turning retrograde at 3 sidereal Aquarius on Monday.  So much of this spring rally has depended on Jupiter and its alignment with Neptune and Uranus, any changes to its astrological condition need to be watched very carefully.  While it is still in close quarters with Neptune (less than one degree), it is possible that a change in direction from forward to backward (as seen from our perspective on Earth, of course, since planets are always moving forward) may mean a reshuffling of the cosmic deck.  The motion of slower moving planets such as Jupiter means that market consequences have a wider margin of error in terms of timing.  Since the Sun is going to be forming a positive aspect with Jupiter early in the week, I think the market is going to rise a little further before it might reverse course.  While my bias would be positive early in the week, Monday is somewhat ambiguous due to the position of Mercury with respect to Rahu. This is a weaker separating influence, but it still may be close enough to encourage sellers.  The Moon is in a more favourable position as it is approaching Uranus in late Aquarius so that could well tilt the balance for the bulls, especially later in the day.  The Moon moves into Pisces Tuesday and that should provide more solid footing for a gain into midweek.  If for some reason we see a decline into Tuesday, that would be a very bearish signal for the market as it would be evidence that the Jupiter retrograde is taking hold very quickly and the reversal (albeit comparatively small) would be underway.  As I said, however, I don’t expect Jupiter’s reversal to take hold quite that quickly.  With Venus approaching a conjunction with Mars later in the week, the bears should have some planetary fuel to push down prices.  Friday seems like the worst day of the week as Moon, Venus, and Mars will all conjoin at 19 degrees of Aries right at the open.  Certainly, the move here looks significant.  Thursday also has a reasonable chance of declines as the Moon will enter Aries that day and thereby activate the tension of the Venus-Mars conjunction.   Since I think some significant up side is likely in the early going with Dow 9000 still possible, I’m not certain where the market will end up by Friday but it could well end up below where we are now.

Next week (June 22-26) looks fairly bearish as Monday we will still be in the throes of the Venus-Mars conjunction and then Friday will see the Mercury-Saturn square which often corresponds to sell offs.   The following week (June 29 – July 3) seems mostly positive as both Mercury and Venus will again align with the Jupiter-Neptune, although I can see some selling on either side of the July 4th holiday weekend.  Depending on the extent of the rally near July 1, possible intermediate lows would therefore be late June or early July.  As before, I am not expecting a big pullback here, so the May lows of 8200/880 may be more prudent downside targets.  Another factor to watch will be Uranus which turns retrograde on July 1.  If the market is falling into that date, then its retrograde station would be a signal of a possible market reversal higher for July and August.

5-day outlook   — bearish-neutral
30-day outlook — neutral-bullish
90-day outlook — neutral-bullish
1-year outlook  — bearish

As predicted, the dollar fell last week and closed a little above 80 on worries over deficits and inflation. The midweek Mercury-Jupiter aspect provided the requisite boost of financial confidence and the dollar declined in kind below 80. Thursday’s move down was a little puzzling since the USDX natal chart did not show any clear affliction. Perhaps the Moon-Venus t-square with natal Pluto was enough of a signature, although the Euro chart was admittedly stronger and thus provided more inferential evidence for dollar weakness. Friday’s decline was on the money as Mars conjoined with the natal Rahu and Mercury aspected the natal Sun. This week is likely to start off negatively for the dollar as Mercury will still be within range of the natal Saturn on Monday. With the Sun-Jupiter likely to boost optimism generally Tuesday and maybe into Wednesday, the dollar may well sell off further. I would not rule out a retest of the early June lows of 78.5 here. This would form a short term double bottom and would create a better technical signal for a more enduring rise starting later in the week. Thursday and Friday look fairly solid, but here I am assuming the Ketu influence on the natal Saturn is going to be positive which admittedly requires a certain measure of faith. Whatever the outcome, it is more likely to be volatile. I am looking for a possible peaking of this mini-rally around June 29 at the 82-83 level. A more robust rally is likely in the fall with a possible top in late October, perhaps near the 88-90 level.

The Euro gained ground last week as closed above 1.40. This was in keeping with expectations as the Mercury-Jupiter aspect sat nicely in the Euro natal chart activating the natal Ascendant-Venus pattern. Friday’s down day exactly coincided with the transiting Sun t-square with the natal Mercury-Jupiter aspect. This week looks quite bullish early on as the Sun conjoins the natal Moon while the transiting Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter. It’s very hard to see the Euro going anywhere but up with those influences. Tuesday could see more gains as Venus trines the natal Sun, but after that, the Euro may face tougher headwinds and could finish below 1.40 overall. Looking further ahead, I’m becoming less convinced the Euro can reach 1.50 this summer. The progressions seem less than positive, and Rahu’s transit influence on the natal ascendant looks difficult. A possible top may occur with the Venus-Jupiter trine aspect on July 27. The Indian Rupee finished mostly unchanged last week at 47.4. While it did trade near 47 a couple of times, it ended the week slipping back. The natal Venus in the India chart (= money) looks afflicted over the next two weeks so it is hard to imagine how the Rupee will avoid some declines here, perhaps to the 48-49 range.

Dollar

5-day outlook   — neutral
30-day outlook — bullish
90-day outlook — neutral
1-year outlook — neutral

Crude maintained its upward momentum last week as it closed over $72. This was mostly in keeping with our forecast, although I had expected the peak to occur a little earlier in the week rather than on Thursday. Friday’s decline was modest, no doubt the product of the ongoing support offered by the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. Although Jupiter moved a little past Neptune, it has not slowed up the crude rally one iota.

With Jupiter turning retrograde on Monday this week, we have another substantial opportunity for a reversal. Neptune is perhaps the best significator for oil, but Jupiter’s close conjunction with Neptune means that Jupiter’s condition can translate into trading outcomes. The early week could see further rises on the Sun-Jupiter aspect and the Moon transiting through the positive10th and 11th houses of the ETF chart. Tuesday is perhaps the best day of the bunch. Watch for signs of weakness by Wednesday as Mercury falls under the aspect of natal Ketu. This could be a volatile day capable of going either way. On Thursday, the Moon enters Aries which is the natal 12th house of loss so the last two days may be prone to some sharp sell offs. If we see $75 by midweek, then we could well finish near $68-70 by Friday, or next Monday at the latest. I am expecting weakness in crude until at least the Mercury-Saturn square aspect on June 25.

5-day outlook   — bearish
30-day outlook — neutral-bullish
90-day outlook — neutral-bullish
1-year outlook  — neutral