(23 March 2025) Canada has been navigating through some rough waters lately. The Liberal government under Justin Trudeau was caught off-guard by the imposition of steep tariffs by the Trump administration in January. Over the past two months, the US tariffs on Canadian-made steel, aluminum and oil has created an atmosphere of chaos as Trump’s various deadlines come and go with only some of the tariffs actually being implemented. While Trump has only followed through on some these threats, Canada has nevertheless imposed retaliatory tariffs on the US. More ominously, Trump has been talking up his desire to make Canada the 51st state through economic attrition or annexation. This has created an existential crisis which has unsettled most Canadians, including even those who may have been favourably disposed to Trump’s conservative agenda.
As a result of the Trump trade war, Canada’s politics have been completely upended. The deeply unpopular incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in January and launched a Liberal leadership campaign to replace him. The former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney won that contest on March 9 and is now the Prime Minister. Thus far, Carney has boosted the Liberal Party’s fortunes in the opinion polls as it now enjoys a small lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party. With Trudeau getting most of the blame for Canada’s failing economy, the Conservatives had been beating the Liberals by 20 points in most polls and seemed a shoo-in to win the next election due to take place later this year.
However, the election of Donald Trump has changed that dynamic. Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats has undermined the policy platform of the Conservative party as Canadians are now looking for stability and reassurance during this time of economic upheaval. For now, Mark Carney’s technocratic credentials may hold more appeal than the pro-free enterprise approach of the pugnacious Poilievre. But with the election now called for April 28, can Carney maintain his honeymoon popularity as the newly-minted Liberal leader or will he wilt under media pressure and the daily grind of an election campaign?
Mark Carney’s birth chart
Based on Carney’s horoscope alone, it is hard to see how he can lose this election. Mark Carney was born March 16, 1965 at 7.56 a.m. MST in Fort Smith, Canada. The birth time is apparently accurate as it comes from a birth notice in the local daily newspaper. The chart is incredibly powerful. Jupiter is rising just two degrees from the early Taurus Ascendant. This bestows confidence, good fortune and the capacity to abide by prevailing social norms. His Jupiter placement gives him a kind of natural luck to come ahead in most matters no matter what his actions and inclinations are. The Sun (2 Pisces) is sitting atop the equal 11th house cusp and confers leadership abilities and the capacity to achieve goals and ambitions. A strong 11th house can also make a person wealthy as Carney is said to be worth eight or nine figures. Until his recent entry into politics, Carney was the chairman of Brookfield Asset Management headquartered in New York.
Perhaps his strongest alignment is the near-exact 120 degree trine aspect of his Moon-Mars-Pluto conjunction to the unequal 10th house (“Mc”) representing career and status. This is arguably the most powerful placement in the chart as it directs emotions (Moon), energy and determination (Mars) and power (Pluto) towards achieving status in the 10th house. Carney is often disparaged by detractors as a remote, Davosian globalist with few actual connections to Canada. And yet the closeness of these aspects suggests he comes by his exalted position honestly, or rather karmically. All those placements given him charisma and natural leadership qualities.
His high status is also seen by the conjunction of the rulers of the 1st house (Venus/Taurus) and the 10th house (Saturn/Aquarius) in the 10th house. This is a very powerful yoga that denotes a successful career trajectory.
He is currently running the Jupiter-Sun dasha period. This is as good as it gets as major period lord Jupiter is a natural benefic and it is conjunct the Ascendant. Minor period lord the Sun is perfectly placed near the 11th house cusp denoting gains from ambitions. I can’t imagine a better dasha setup for winning an election than this.
Carney’s transits
The transits also look good. On election night when the results are announced (April 28, at about 10 pm EDT), transiting Uranus (2 Taurus) will be conjunct the Ascendant alongside the Moon. This is very strong and often coincides with a major life development. At the same time Saturn (3 Pisces) and Rahu (1 Pisces) will conjoin his Sun in the 11th house of gains. Since both are malefics, surely that could create problems for Carney. shouldn’t it? Yes and no. While they are natural malefics, Saturn is actually more beneficial to him since it rules the 10th of status (Aquarius). And Rahu is placed in the 1st whole sign house in Taurus in the natal chart and thus could create a positive association with the 11th house. Admittedly, this is some uncertainty in these transits so let’s look elsewhere to see what we can find.
If we relocate his natal chart to his current place of residence, the nation’s capital in Ottawa, a more positive picture emerges. Suddenly, Jupiter (26 Taurus) is just one degree past a conjunction with his relocated Ascendant and forms a 120 degree aspect to his “Mc” (unequal 10th house cusp). This is an incredibly fortuitous alignment to have on election day.
Perhaps the most important placements for his eventual political victory are the progressed direct stations (not shown). As I demonstrated during the 2024 US election, Trump’s progressed direct stations in the time around the November election provided a clear indication that he would win while Kamala Harris’s progressed retrograde stations symbolized her defeat.
We can see the same phenomena at work here in Carney’s chart. On April 17, tertiary progressed Uranus stations direct in Carney’s chart at 26 Leo, while tertiary progressed Pluto stations direct on May 13 — right around the time the new Prime Minister would be sworn-in. Both Uranus and Pluto direct progressed stations are very positive for his political fortunes and basically guarantee he will win. Based on my observations, progressed direct stations at the time of an election are more favourable than Jupiter transits to a personal point (Ascendant, Moon, Sun). As it happens, Carney has both. Whether or not he wins a majority or minority government is harder to say, however. I don’t have enough experience forecasting Canadian elections to know how to distinguish the size and scale of a victory.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre
For comparison’s sake, let’s look at the charts of Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre. His birth time is unknown, but we can see that transiting Saturn is opposite his Moon (27 Leo for noon), although it must be noted that Jupiter will be conjunct his Mercury (24 Taurus), although it will be a bit past exact conjunction at the time of the election suggesting a possible weakening of its positive effects by the time of the election. The Jupiter-Mercury conjunction occurs one or two weeks before April 28 and may instead symbolize a solid debate performance by Poilievre. The absence of a time of birth for Poilievre makes predictions more difficult. While his transits look mixed at best, we cannot fully discount the possibility that a more favourable picture could emerge with a birth time that creates more transit hits to the Ascendant and Midheaven (Mc).
However, the real problem is that Poilievre has no progressed direct stations in either the secondaries, tertiaries or the minors. Tertiary progressed Pluto turned retrograde back in July 2024 and may well have slammed the karmic door shut on Poilievre’s chances to be PM in the near term. His tertiary progressed chart also shows a difficult Mars-Uranus square denoting conflict, anger and frustration with surprising or sudden events. This is a very negative alignment and it is the closest aspect at the time of the election. This is not at all a winning aspect.
Conclusion
Even without accurate birth data for Poilievre, the planets clearly favour the Liberal Mark Carney to be the next Prime Minister of Canada. Given the vicissitudes of the Westminster system and Canada’s fractured party politics, however, it is possible he may not be PM for very long if Carney’s Liberals only manage to win a minority government with a plurality of seats in the House of Commons.
I would note that the transit setup in November and December looks very difficult for Carney as Saturn stations direct at 1 Pisces in close conjunction with his Sun and transiting Ketu conjoins his Moon-Mars-Pluto-Uranus conjunction. While Saturn is a functional benefic in his chart through its rulership of the 10th house, a prolonged conjunction around a direct station may introduce an excess of negative Saturnian energy that risks negative outcomes.
If Carney’s Liberals form a minority government, it is conceivable that they could be defeated in a vote of non-confidence in the Nov-Dec time frame. While it seems unlikely at the moment, it’s something to watch out for. If Carney wins a majority, however, then the November set up would likely be an event that is very damaging to his government such as a scandal, an embarrassing policy miscalculation and reversal or a further deterioration of relations with the US.
The other thing to keep in mind is that Carney will shift from the super-strong Jupiter-Sun dasha period to the more problematic Jupiter-Moon dasha period in September 2025. The Moon (21 Leo) is simultaneously strong and afflicted in his chart as it is conjunct destabilizing Uranus (18 Leo) and malefics Mars (22 Leo) and Pluto (21 Leo) and opposite malefic Saturn (16 Aquarius). While it’s exact alignment with the MC gives it strength, its multiple natal afflictions mean that setbacks and obstacles will be more significant during its period which runs from August 2025 to January 2027. If Carney manages to survive politically through this period, he will no doubt have his hands full and may struggle with the demands of the position.
