(Updated October 11, 2009) Gold soared to $1050 this week on growing skepticism about the long term viability of the US dollar and inflation fears. While there is good reason to be bullish on gold in the long term, I think this current rally will not hold. Gold is likely to experience a series of corrections over the coming months, probably due to a recovery of the dollar.
A couple of scenarios are possible here, although both are ultimately bearish. First, we could see a correction back to $900-950 in October and November, a short bounce, and then a sharper decline after Christmas and running into the winter. The second possibility is more strength in the near term with range bound trading between $980 and $1100 until December, and then a steep decline. The Saturn-Pluto square that first forms in November 2009 will set-up just a couple of degrees from the GLD ETF ascendant — a potent bearish influence.
Certainly, there are undoubtedly some potentially offsetting bullish influences such as transiting Jupiter’s current conjunction with the Moon. But once Jupiter moves away from the natal Moon (24 Capricorn), it will leave gold more vulnerable to sell-offs as Saturn and Pluto will become the dominant influences in this chart.
(March 1, 2009) Cashing in on its traditional safe haven status, gold has been on a bull run over the past two months as financial markets have fallen back to their November lows. After bottoming at $700 an ounce in November, gold recently traded above $1000 last week marking a substantial rally in a relatively short time. While I did expect gold to fall at year end, I did not expect this rally to occur so soon. I missed the fact that the aspect from transiting Jupiter to the Moon in the Futures chart (Dec 31 1974) would push prices substantially higher. I had expected a larger negative influence from the nodal influence (Rahu and Ketu) on the natal nodes in the Futures chart.
The Jupiter-Moon aspect comes exact this week, so we are likely near a short term high water mark for gold. Another possible high may occur in late March as Jupiter conjoins the natal Moon in the GLD chart (Nov 18 2004). After that, the outlook for gold is more uncertain as there are no clear positive or negative transit influences. The Futures chart seems ambiguous as the Jupiter station at 3 degrees of Aquarius is not contacting any significant point in the horoscope. The GLD chart, by contrast, looks very bullish, as transiting Jupiter will aspect the natal Venus near the Midheaven, which is a very bullish signal indeed. On balance, I would say that gold will likely headed higher by June, and as long as it doesn’t fall too far in the interim, it may be headed over $1000 again.
(Updated October 18, 2008) Amidst the global financial turmoil, gold has lost much of its appeal and fallen below $800. Although previously sought after for its safe haven status, it seems to have temporarily lost out to the US dollar. While I had foreseen a sharp decline in gold, I had thought it would begin after November. It’s clear that the days of $900 gold are over for now. It will likely head down to $650 by year’s end. The winter will likely see the formation of a more solid bottom from which gold will rally once more in 2009. The longer term prospects are still very bullish, especially as the US government will increase its deficit and erode the value of the dollar. $1000 is a possible target for gold in the summer of 2009. $2000 and higher is a reasonable target by 2010.
(Updated September 21, 2008) Gold is poised to make a significant rally in the coming days amidst the global financial turmoil caused by the US banking and credit crisis. While I had previously predicted that the rally would not reach $1000, I think that price target is well within reach by early to mid-October. There is even a chance for it to hit $1100, although this will be extremely short-lived. Gold is rising here partially due to the auspicious influence of Jupiter on Saturn in Leo. Since Leo and the Sun are the key symbolic representations of gold, any benefic influence on either, will often result in gains in bullion prices. Gold may fall sharply in November and December as Jupiter’s influence on Leo wanes and the Uranus opposition to Saturn becomes more dominant. Gold may well fall back below $850 and indeed much lower than that over the winter.
(Updated August 6 2008) Gold has slipped back to $887 in recent days amidst a growing sense that the worst of the credit crisis is over and as inflationary concerns recede somewhat. While gold is well off its spring highs, the bull market very much remains intact as it trades above its 280-day moving average of about $850. Looking back on previous forecasts, I was correct in my prediction of $1000 gold in 2008 and was only off by one month on the high which occurred in mid-March.
The situation for gold is becoming more complex, however, as gold threatens to break below its support level at $850. I think it’s a 50-50 chance that it drops below, but I don’t think it will stay there for long. August is likely to see a retesting of $850, possibly back down to $800 after which we can expect a significant rally as Jupiter stations in early September and moves forward towards the natal Mercury and Venus in the Gold Futures chart. I don’t expect Gold to hit $1000 in the next few months as the rally will likely fall short of previous highs. Prices will likely tumble by December and they may pullback sharply to $800 or below. The winter will see a period of consolidation of a solid bottom in preparation for another major rally next spring. This will likely peak somewhere near the Jupiter retrograde station at 3 Aquarius in June 2009. It’s very likely that gold will once again rise above $1000 and make a new all-time at that time.
(Updated January 25, 2008) Yesterday’s surprise rate cut by the Federal Reserve pushed the US dollar down sharply which made gold more attractive. It broke the recent losing streak that had seen it fall from a peak of $913 to $865. The decline can be partially attributed to the transit of Rahu (North Node) over the Ascendant of the Gold Futures chart. The sentiment on gold reversed as transiting Venus joined Pluto near the 11th equal house cusp. Yesterday it came exact to that cusp in the 10.00 am futures chart.
I would expect gold to go mostly up from here as Venus will now join
Jupiter to conjoin the natal Sun in the gold chart. This aspect comes
exact February 1. Trading up to time will be very volatile as Mercury
stations 4 degrees off the Ascendant on January 28 in close proximity to
disruptive Rahu/NN. Feb 1st will represent a short term high but prices
should remain strong as Jupiter continues its forward motion into
sidereal Sagittarius and to rendezvous with Mercury and Venus.
As before, I am looking for a medium term high to occur in April or
possibly early May as Jupiter slows to its station and the three inner
planets are in sidereal Pisces in the second house of the gold chart.
Please see the Weekly Market Forecast for more updates.
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(January, 7 2008) As I predicted two years ago, the price of gold has hit an all-time high in recent days. The bull run continues into 2008 but how much higher can it go? There is good reason to believe that gold will continue to move up in the early part of the year, possibly surpassing the psychologically important $1000 per oz barrier. Geopolitical concerns and the continued weakness in the U.S dollar are likely to have a hand in the run-up. But I think this will not be a banner year for gold. Once the good effects of Jupiter’s transit to the Sun, Mercury and Venus of the gold chart are over in the early spring, I think there will be a period of declines. These are likely to be substantial and may push bullion back under $700. I would look at this year as a time to take profits and sell into rallies.
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(Original analysis from early 2007) For the past few years, gold has finally awakened from its long bear hibernation and prices have moved up over $600/oz. Astrologically, I believe that much of the bull run can be traced to the progressed Venus-Uranus trine which perfected in early 2006. Not coincidentally, this occurred near the price peak of $725 in May 2006. I had been very bullish on gold for at least a year before on the basis of this and other patterns in the gold futures chart (Dec 31 1974 9.45 am NYC).
On the basis of several key transits forming in early 2007, I predicted another major rise. While this happened, it has so far fallen short of expectations. Prices have topped out at $685 in February, having since flattened out somewhat to the $660 level. Uranus and Jupiter are the main movers in this upward movement since the medium term low of $550 in 2006. Jupiter is the bhukti lord of this chart for much of this bull run and will continue to be sublord until July 2007. By transit, Uranus has been in close proximity to natal Jupiter in sidereal Aquarius. Now that Uranus has passed natal Jupiter, we can well ask what lies ahead for gold.
Gold Futures chart with transits for Aug 1, 2007Given that Uranus has moved past Jupiter, and Saturn and Neptune are close to the 1-7 axis, it will be hard to see gold prices matching the $725 high in the spring. The proximity of Rahu/NN to Jupiter is a bullish indicator though, so this will keep prices from falling too far. The May-June period looks more difficult, so some kind of pullback is likely then. But a new high is most likely to occur in summer near the Jupiter station. This will happen spot on the natal Rahu/MC and will likely see 20% rise in the price during July-August. Where the price goes is hard to predict, but $725 is well within sight and it may well go higher towards the all-time high of $850.
After that? With Saturn bhukti starting in July and lasting for the next two years, can gold continue its secular bull run? Saturn is actually in good shape in the natal chart. Although it’s in dussthana 6th house, it receives close, favourable aspects from Jupiter and Mercury. While I don’t think this is a recipe for meteoric gains, I also don’t think it spells the end to high priced gold, at least in US dollar terms. After some price consolidation (read: dips!) in the early Fall, look for another substantial boost in prices in late Nov-Dec when Jupiter joins Pluto near the equal house cusp of the 11th house.
