A very unscary Halloween on Wall St
US stocks rose 1.5%, as the market posted its largest weekly gain in over 30 years. The Dow finished the session at 9325 while the S&P closed at 968. Global markets continued their rally earlier in the day, as Indian stocks soared 7%. The BSE Sensex closed at 9788 while the NSE Nifty stood at 2885 at the close of trading. I was clearly mistaken in my expectation for weakness here as the the market has put together several consecutive up days for the first time in several weeks.
Nonetheless, I remain convinced that next week will see another sharp move down as the tense Venus-Saturn-Uranus configuration sends a shock to the markets. The aspect becomes exact on November 4, and as I’ve said previously, it’s very possible that the market may have to react to some unforeseen developments in the US election. While I would not rule out another up day Monday in the US, I do think we are headed down over the next two weeks, probably to a retest of 7773 on the Dow and 7697 on the Sensex.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/31/2008 06:29:00 PM EDT
US stocks slide after Fed lowers 50 pts
New York closed down 1% after the Fed cut its prime lending rate 50 basis points to 1%. The Dow had been up over 9300 but sold off sharply in the last 15 minutes and ended the day at 8990 while the S&P closed at 930. Indian stocks were up modestly on the day with the Sensex at 9044 and the Nifty at 2697.
I had thought the market might hang on to more of its gains today, but it was not to be as bearishness returned at the close. This sets up a more negative sentiment Thursday and Friday and going into next week. There is a veritable Sword of Damocles hanging over this market as Mars moves under the exact aspect of Saturn in the next few days just as Saturn and Uranus are set to oppose one another early next week with the money planet Venus getting caught exactly in the middle. Look for volatility to increase here and we will likely see 8100-8500 intraday by Friday on the Dow. A retest of 7773 is more likely Monday or Tuesday. The Sensex will likely trade below 8000 on Friday, with closes below 7500 next week.
Stocks surge 11% as credit freeze eases
In a stunning and dramatic rally, stocks soared amidst growing signs that the worst of the credit freeze was over. The Dow was up over 800 points and closed at 9065 while the S&P finished at 940. The rally was a continuation of a rally that began overnight in Asia and specifically, Hong Kong, where buyers rushed in to buy up bargains.
I did not foresee this rally, although I was fairly tentative about the market sentiment in advance of tomorrow’s Fed meeting and that that some gains midweek were likely. In my weekly forecast I also noted the possibility of a Tuesday afternoon rally ahead of the Sun-Moon conjunction, although I had no inclination that we would witness such as huge upswing. While I am still cautious about this market, I do think that the strength of this rally should not be underestimated. A retest of the 2003 lows in November seems improbable now, and even a retest of 7773 is going to be a purely speculative play. Tomorrow will likely see another plus day ahead of the meeting and some selling afterwards but likely positive overall. 9500 is possible. But Thursday and Friday still look quite negative to me, so I think the market will once again trade down towards the 8500-9000 range. For those thinking of closing out short positions, that might be the a good opportunity. Monday also seems negative from here, so I would be reluctant to take on any large long positions this week. The market will likely continue to be volatile for another week or two. But on balance I think November will be positive, especially in the second half of the month.
Posted by Christopher Kevill 10/28/2008 06:10:00 PM EDT
Rally fails; stocks slide 3% at the close
After spending most of the day in positive territory, stocks in New York fell sharply at the close and ended down across the board. The Dow lost 200 points and ended the day at 8175 while the S&P closed at 848. While today’s session did not retest the Oct 10 lows, it was somewhat noteworthy in that it was the lowest close yet. The negative mood followed mostly bearish global trading as Indian markets fell over 2%. The Nifty continued to probe the downside getting as low as 2252 intraday before closing at 2524. The Sensex similarly dipped below 8000 before rallying to finish at 8509.
In the end, my call for a retest today was overstated, although the day did end up negative. I am maintaining my basic position here that a significant retest is imminent and may come as soon as tomorrow, although I am not holding my breath on it. We may well see a close below 8000 and an intraday retest of 7773. I think the retest of the 2002-03 lows may have to wait until Friday or perhaps next week. And indeed, there is a chance they may not come at this time at all. Look for Indian markets to retest their intraday lows by Friday and into next week.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/27/2008 05:45:00 PM EDT
US stocks drop 3% on global recession fears
It was another losing day on Wall St. as stocks probed ever closer to the Oct 10 lows as investors contemplated the grim possibility that the US recession may go global. After falling below 8200 at one point, the Dow closed at 8378 while the S&P ended trading at 876. The New York decline followed an even more negative session in other world markets. In India, the RBI unexpectedly left rates unchanged and the markets sold off precipitously as the Nifty lost 12% and closed at 2584 while the Sensex finished at 8701.
India’s disastrous decline was somewhat foreshadowed in the Mars conjunction to natal Rahu in the NSE chart I had mentioned earlier. While I was calling for a generally day negative across the board, I wasn’t quite prepared for the extent of panic in Indian markets. I still think we’re at least another week from the bottom, but India may have seen the worst of this decline with this 12% loss today. Still with a lot of support near the 2000 level on the Nifty, one wonders if it can go all the way there in the next two weeks. Monday is shaping up to be very negative globally and in the US in particular. I’ll post more details in my weekly forecast.
US stocks rally 2% at the close
After yet another mostly bearish day of trading, US stocks rallied near the close as the Dow closed at 8691 while the S&P finished at 908. The optimism borne in New York followed a negative day in Asia as the Nifty closed below 3000 to 2943 and the Sensex likewise broke below another major psychological level of 10,000 and ended the day at 9771.
With the long-awaited up day now behind us, we can look towards tomorrow for an indication of next week’s trends. With Mercury applying towards Rahu’s aspect while Mars simultaneously applies to aspect Rahu, it is hard to make a convincing case that this rally will continue. While I think Monday’s planetary influences are clearly worse, Friday’s also seem somewhat negative.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/23/2008 08:22:00 PM EDT
US stocks plunge 6% on corporate earnings outlook
The full-fledged gloom returned to Wall St today as stocks sold off sharply on an increasingly bleak profitability outlook. The Dow closed at 8519 and the S&P ended the session down 6% at 896. The mood in Asia was also negative as the Nifty closed down 5% to 3065 and the Sensex at 10,169.
It seems the market is accelerating its pace for a retest of the Oct 10 lows and will in fact get there by Monday Oct 27. While I had thought we would see more upside this week, the overall trend is more or less in keeping with our expectations. I’m even less certain about tomorrow’s session than I was about today’s (which was incorrect) as there are some divergent indicators both ways. With the Moon moving into aspect with the Sun and Pluto near midday, one might be tempted to say that the morning might be higher, with more selling in the afternoon. But even with the possibility of gains, this is no time to be long. By contrast, Friday and next Monday look more clearly bearish.
US stocks slide 3% on earnings worries
Stocks in New York dropped today as investors began to chew over some lower earnings forecasts. The Dow closed at 9033 while the S&P finished at 955. Earlier in the day, Asian stocks surged higher as the NSE Nifty gained over 3% and stood as 3234 at the end of trading.
That "negative tinge" I mentioned yesterday completely overwhelmed whatever optimism there was that the banking system was now on more solid footing. I still think we have at least one more up day in the market this week, and Wednesday in the US (Thursday in Asia) is the best bet, as the Moon is in Ashlesha. At this point, Thursday seems like a toss-up.
New York rallies over 4%
Stocks rose sharply today on growing confidence that the worst of the banking crisis had passed. The Dow closed up over 400 points and ended at 9265 while the S&P finished the day at 985. In Mumbai, the Nifty added 2% to close at 3122 while the Sensex once again rose above 10,000 and ended the day at 10,223.
While I had thought we might have a big down day here, it seems that the expected midweek rally has arrived early. Tomorrow may have a negative tinge to it, but I’m not sure it will be enough to stop the rally momentum that is taking hold here. So look for more upside is this week, maybe back up to last week’s highs. However, I remain committed to my view that by Friday, we will again be moving down.
Friday, October 17, 2008
New York stocks fall at the close
It seems that even Warren Buffett can’t save this market. After the billionaire investor (or perhaps philanthropist?) announced he was buying US stocks, the markets valiantly attempted to rally but ended the day down once again. The Dow lost 127 points and ended the day at 8852 while the S&P finished at 940. Indian markets once again got hammered and declined 6% as the Nifty closed at 3074 while the Sensex closed below 10,000 for the first time since June 2006.
Today’s ingress of the Sun into Libra, its sign of debilitation, has certainly not changed investor sentiment. In fact, I would argue it is a sign that sentiment will get worse in the short term, particularly as Mars comes under the aspect of Saturn over the next two weeks. But more immediately, Monday is looking quite negative and we could see a sudden retest of 8000/840 then, or perhaps carrying on into Tuesday.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/17/2008 06:47:00 PM EDT
Thursday, October 16, 2008
New York up 4% after late day rally
After a day of huge price swings, US markets finished strongly higher as the Dow closed at 8979 and the S&P at 946. This came on the heels of a generally down day on other world markets as the BSE closed near last week’s lows and ended down 2% at 10,581 and the Nifty at 3269.
Yesterday I had wondered if the Dow might see 9000 today and as luck would have it, I wasn’t far off. But the operative word there is luck. As previously suggested, Asian markets are likely to follow suit Friday as Moon is in its sign of exaltation in aspect to benefic Venus. I would expect a move up to 3400 here. But Friday in the US may be another matter altogether. That’s partially because the Moon-Venus aspect perfects before the markets open so its influence will be diminishing by 9.30. The Sun’s ingress into Libra tomorrow is another possible negative influence since its dispositor Venus is in malefic Scorpio. Overall, I’m not certain but the energy seems more negative here. Monday looks decidedly worse so we may be on track to retest the Oct 10 lows (8000/840) at that time.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/16/2008 05:31:00 PM EDT
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Wednesday, October 15, 2008
US Markets slide 9% on retail worries
Stocks in New York succumbed once again to the growing realization there will be no quick fix to this economic downturn on the release of some very bad retail numbers. The Dow plunged 733 points and ended at 8577 while the S&P lost 9% and ended the day at 907. Indian stocks also lost ground earlier in the day as the Nifty was down 6% closing at at 3338 while the Sensex finished at 10,809.
The volatility this week has been incredible and has made mincemeat out of my daily predictions. Nonetheless, our overall bearish stance has been borne out by the failure of Monday’s rally to gain a foothold. Yesterday I wondered if Thursday would be the best day for a rally. I think this is all the more likely now in light of today’s drop and the better than expected Ebay earnings posted after the bell. I would not rule out 9000 tomorrow on the Dow. Friday in the US looks less favourable and Monday looks even worse. It is possible we will be retesting the Oct 10 intraday lows sooner than I thought, although next week looks like there may be a two or three day rally off the Monday lows so that might keep us in the 8500-9000 range. As always, I will refine my forecast as time goes on. But overall, I think we’re still on track for a low in the first week of November, possibly between 7500-8000 on the Dow, and perhaps below 3000 on the Nifty, and maybe 9000 on the Sensex.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/15/2088 05:07:00 PM
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
New York fails to hang on to gains; Dow ends down 1%
After a strong opening rally to 9750, the Dow lost ground the rest of the day and closed lower by almost 1%. At the close it stood at 9310 while the S&P ended the day at 998. This pattern echoed similar intraday patterns in other markets. In Mumbai, the Nifty opened sharply higher at 3650 but ultimately failed to sustain the rally and closed slightly up on the day at 3518.
I think there is still a possibility for gains tomorrow and Thursday, although Thursday’s Moon-Jupiter trine looks like a more reliable indicator of a higher close. This will likely translate to a rise on Asian markets on Friday. It’s possible we will again see 9750 at some point, with 10,000 as a genuine, if less likely, outcome. Overall, I think we are within 5% of the top of this rally.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/14/2008 06:10:00 PM
Monday, October 13, 2008
Markets up 11%; Dow has biggest single day point gain in history
New York markets surged today on renewed optimism that further global cooperation between governments and banks could avert disaster and minimize the damage from an imminent recession. The Dow closed up 936 points to 9387 while the S&P rose 11% to end the day at 1003. The rally built upon gains made in other world markets as the Nifty closed up 6% to 3490.
While I expected a rally to occur in the next couple of weeks, this explosive rise caught me totally off guard. I think we will likely see more upside tomorrow but watch for more tentative rallies later in the week with a negative close by Friday. Next week looks more negative than positive, although there will be at least two up days.
So everyone is asking: have we seen the bottom? I would say no. From a technical perspective, the relatively low volume of 1.5 billion shares is a clue that this is not a durable rally. I think this rally may top out at 9500 to 10,000 on the Dow, (perhaps 3800 on the Nifty) but we will be headed down soon enough. Watch for the low to take place in the first week of November. It may well be a retest of the Friday low, although I’m not certain of that. Another possible retest will occur in the first half of December.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/13/2008 06:23:00 PM
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Stocks in freefall; Dow closes below 9000
In the face of a torrent a bad economic news including global bank nationalizations, investors lost hope late this afternoon as markets sold off over 7% in New York. The Dow closed below 9000 for the first time since 2003 and finished the day at a bracing 8579 while the S&P ended trading at 909.
While not quite ‘crashworthy’, this was more or less in keeping with my standing prediction for a large percentage decline (5-10%) for today, October 9th.
I believe there is more downside tomorrow, although my sense is much of the negative planetary energy has already been expressed. It’s possible we will see a further decline to the much-talked about support level of 7500-8000, but I think there will be a lot of buyers at 8000 so we should expect a lot of intraday volatility. Of course, it’s conceivable that the Dow goes below these levels, but it’s not probable and even if they do, they won’t stay there very long.
I think Friday will be the much-sought after capitulation and near term bottom after which we will rise into next week. We are now facing a two month bottoming process where there will be some retesting of the lows we likely make tomorrow. Early November is the first probable retest, and then again in the first two weeks of December.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Markets teeter on the edge
For the past several weeks and months, I have been writing about the likelihood of a major decline in the second week of October and so far that prediction has been fulfilled as the Dow has broken decisively below 10,000. However, I had reserved a special place for the end of this week, particularly for October 9th. According to my understanding of the planets, this time window showed the greatest potential for a sell off. The Sun is moving under the influence of Rahu while conjoining the natal Saturn in the USA chart. Tomorrow morning, the Moon conjoins the natal Ketu of the USA chart. Previously I had suggested that a worse case scenario had been 9000. I now think I was being overly conservative in order to avoid seeming alarmist. While I had thought we would be retesting the 2002 lows of 7500-8000 by November, it’s very possible that we might see those levels as soon as tomorrow or Friday. So will this crash actually happen tomorrow? Yes, it could although I acknowledge a margin for error that extends over the weekend to next Tuesday (the US markets are closed Monday). Alternatively, it’s also possible a full blown crash may be averted for a few weeks until November and we may only see another big down day on the order of 5-10%.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Markets continue to bleed red; Dow falls below 9500
Indian markets similarly started off in the green on the strength of the RBI rate cut, but succumbed to selling pressure and ended unchanged. It seems that Nifty 3400 may be breached quite soon before any kind of rally. Look for 3000 by November.
After the smoke clears this weekend, I think the market will stabilize from about Oct 15 to 23. This might be enough reason to try to cover some short positions this week. Another move down is likely after that. It seems that we may get to 8000 by November. Wow.
Oil is moving with stocks and closed mostly unchanged at $89. Another move below $85 is in the cards.
As suggested in our forecast, the Euro had a nice bounce today and finished at 1.3612. Any rallies here are potentially lucrative shorting opportunities.
Gold had a good day and closed up 2% at $886. Rallies may be cut short in the days ahead especially with the approaching Sun-Rahu aspect.
Monday, October 6, 2008
World markets slide on recession fears
Gold finally got a boost from this turmoil and closed at $866. I think there may be intermittent rallies to $900 but long positions should be handled with care as gold will decline precipitously very soon. Gold over $900 might be a good short term shorting opportunity.
As predicted, oil continued its downward trend and closed down $7 to $86. My forecast for $80-85 is now looking overly conservative. There is a lot of downside potential to crude over the next few weeks and so I would stay short.
The Euro also continued to move down as it closed at 1.3511. I had thought the bear market in the Euro would take a bit of a breather this week. Let’s see how the rest of the week plays out. I would stay basically short on the Euro over the next 60-90 days at least.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Stocks sell off after bailout bill passes
In my weekly forecast, I had been uneasy about Friday’s action given the position of retrograde Mercury in aspect to Rahu. This expectation was largely borne out given the sharp reversal that occurred. The New York market had been up 3% in advance of the House vote, and ended up over 1% in the red.
Oil declined with stocks while the Euro and gold were little changed.
So another week, another 4% shaved off equities. Now it seems clear that the bailout can no longer save the market. The stage has been set for next week’s possible carnage, which seems to centre around Thursday or Friday. Breaking through 10,000 seems to be a certainty, and it will likely be a lot lower than that. We could be down another 10% before there’s a relief rally.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
The Gloom Descends
Perhaps more important is the flight to the US dollar that is crushing all comers including the Euro, crude and gold. As predicted, the Euro is in free fall here and ended the day barely hanging onto support levels at 1.3809. And as fears of a major slowdown grow, crude oil fell back $5 to $93. Gold was hammered and lost 4% today and closed at $840. Gold is quickly losing its safe haven status now, and the US dollar has reaped the rewards of the current crisis. I believe this trend is likely to continue for the next few months. It seems that my forecast for $1000 gold will not be realized. We might see $900 at the end of next week, but rallies should be treated as exit points and opportunities for going short. This also holds for crude and the Euro.
By the end of the year, we may see gold at $650, the Euro at 1.20 and crude at $70. This is still in keeping with my previous medium range forecast. The only significant revision is that the short term upside potential has largely already been realized.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Markets flat in advance of Senate vote
While the bill was widely expected to pass the Senate, the margin was encouraging for nervous investors (74-25) and should push markets higher tomorrow and likely into Friday. I’m still not convinced the rally will extend to the close on Friday, but certainly we should see some decent gains here. Gold may become a great buying opportunity at $850.
As predicted earlier in the week, the Euro has fallen below 1.40 and may go lower. It closed today at 1.3967.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Stocks rebound in New York
The extent of these gains were somewhat surprising, but the comeback is largely in keeping with my forecast for a rally later on in the week. The Senate is going to reconvene tomorrow to vote on a revised bill and this should extend the rally well over 11,000. We are in good shape for highs above 11,300 by Thursday, and if all goes well, perhaps even to our original target of 11,700. I am still thinking the terrain may shift Friday in advance of a difficult or even cataclysmic week next week so long positions here need to be handled with care.
Oil came back after Monday’s record sell off and closed above $100. Although I was not specific in calling for yesterday’s precipitous decline, I have forecast a positive week for crude, so let’s see how high it can go in these relief rallies today and tomorrow. $110 may be a stretch, but $105 is very possible.
Not surprisingly, gold slumped back to $886 today as investors breathed a sigh of relief and no longer sought out the safe haven metal. Look for prices to drop further here, perhaps to $850 before recovering.
Mumbai and other Asian markets were surprisingly strong and rose 2% as the Sensex closed at 12,860 and the Nifty at 3921. 4000 on the Nifty is quite likely this week, with an outside chance at 4100, but it is unlikely to hold next week as we move down again.
The Euro plummeted over 3 cents yesterday down to 1.40, well in excess of our target of 1.42. There’s more downside there this week and it may test 1.38 at some point.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Markets plunge on failed bailout vote
Markets in New York fell off a cliff today after the House of Representatives unexpectedly rejected the emergency financial bailout bill. The Dow lost a record 777 points or 7% and closed near its worst levels of the day at 10,365. The S&P lost 9% or 106 points and closed at 1107. This decline confirms my prediction from two weeks ago that the 29th would be very negative, although I had thought the drop might be more like 5%. Over the weekend, when it seemed that the bill would pass, I wondered if my original prediction had been mistaken, as I wrote in my weekly forecast. As it turned out, it underestimated the losses. Not surprisingly, oil fell $11 to $95 as investors worry of a global economic slowdown and gold rose over $22 and closed at $910. Today’s New Moon in Virgo that featured a beleaguered Mercury may be seen as one important indicator for the decline in stocks.
I think tomorrow’s trading will likely be negative but I don’t foresee any huge drop like today’s. In fact, there may be a stabilizing in the afternoon. I still expect some kind of rally perhaps on Wednesday and Thursday. As in my weekly forecast, Friday is looking quite iffy, perhaps due to some bad economic news in the jobs report.
Next week looks even worse, so we may be preparing for a 1000 point drop in the Dow. Even with a rally later this week that might get the market back to 11,000, I think we’ll be under 10,000 with next week’s collapse. 9000 is a worse case scenario by October 10th, although that is a very speculative target.
Monday, September 22, 2008
After the bailout: stocks slump; oil, gold, Euro rally
Gold has resumed its upward direction as it rose to $913 today. We’re on track to hit $1000 by perhaps next Monday, if not before.
Oil also rallied strongly and closed at $120. While I had anticipated gains early in the week, I was not prepared for this meteoric rise. Clearly, the US dollar is going to be pummeled in the near term as fears grow about the increased debt burden of the US government. This will drive up the value of commodities and other currencies. The Euro also moved sharply higher above 1.48 today.
Just as gold will rally in the coming weeks, it seems certain that it will be joined by oil and the Euro. It’s possible we’ll see the old highs of $147 eclipsed in crude while the Euro may once again be headed for 1.60. Please note, this is a significant revision of my weekly forecast. All these gains will not last long, however, as the Fed will likely have to raise interest rates perhaps in November to defend the greenback.
I am expecting a near term high in gold, oil and the Euro (and other currencies) next Monday the 29th. After that, the rally may slow somewhat but it should continue until about October 15-18. After that, I would begin to expect a change in sentiment that could occur in late October, or may be delayed until early November.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Dow rallies 400 pts on government regulatory plan
This may be the last chance for investors to exit the market above 11,000 since we can expect further deterioration next week and then accelerating declines after that. At this point, I expect we’ll see 10,000 on the Dow by early October and then a sudden crash-like event probably in the second week of October, perhaps near the Columbus Day holiday that takes the Dow to 9000 or below. November’s crash will likely send the Dow towards the retesting of the 2002 lows of 7500.
Gold continues to be the best safe haven in this market turbulence as bullion hit $900 early in the day before the government announcement and subsequent equities rally. It ended the day around $855. As predicted, volatility is the watchword here this week. There will likely be some more good opportunities to buy gold here at these levels, and there is a good chance it can climb back to $1000. Depending on how bad things get, gold could well go significantly higher than that. I’m expecting a big rise in the last days of September as there are a number of very favourable hits with benefic planets in the GLD horoscope. But I think the bulk of the rise on a percentage basis will occur by October 15th. It is important to remember that this explosive rally will be short-lived as gold is likely to drop precipitously in November and after.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Gold surges to $868; Stocks fall further
As Wall St continued to operate in panic mode on the heels of the AIG bailout, investors dumped stocks across the board today and sought the safety of short term treasuries, gold and oil. Gold had its biggest one day jump since 1980 as it soared over $80 and closed at $868.
While I had forecast a volatile week and higher prices generally in September, the extent of this incredible rally caught me off guard. I did however forecast gains for the conjunction of transiting Venus to the MC of the GLD chart and that is exactly what is happening today. Clearly, we have entered the much anticipated September rally that will take Gold back above $900. Given where we are now, $900 is an overly conservative target. I think $950 is more realistic target that we will hit in October. I don’t see prices going straight up from here, however, so gold investors wishing to take long positions may get lower entry points over the coming days.
Remember, however, that this gold rally may be quite short-lived. Once equity markets settle down — most likely after a full-blown crash — then gold will quickly sell off. This seems likely in November although possible dates for a top include October 21, or November 4 and December 12.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Dow plunges 500 points as financial turmoil deepens
This is very close to my prediction of two weeks ago in my long term outlook — repeated in last week’s regular weekly forecast — that the markets would fall back to 11,000 and retest previous lows on either the 12th or 15th of September. The central astrological culprit was the trinal aspect of Rahu to Mars which happened to fall on the natal Saturn of the USA chart. Unlike many other configurations which are sometimes open to a lot of interpretation, this seemed like a clearer bearish indicator.
It’s possible we will go lower tomorrow, although I’m not at all certain. It is hard to precisely correlate price magnitude with levels of planetary affliction. We should see some buying later in the week at least, although Friday looks negative. The market looks quite negative for the coming weeks. More significant declines are likely in early October and then again in the first week of November. The November decline looks worst and may be on the order of 10% or more in a single day. There’s a good chance that the November decline will become known as a "crash".
I’m not sure where or when we might see the bottom but anything is possible here, including all the way down to 7500 and the 2002 lows by December. In other words, we may have another 25-30% to go in the short term. This is admittedly a worse case scenario, but the planets are indicating a grim mood in the coming weeks. A best case scenario might be a decline of another 10% — down to 9700. That seems far too optimistic, however. I think the early October decline will put us under 10,000 as it is.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
New York stocks drop 3%
I had thought the these declines would wait until next week, but it seems they’re upon us now. A retesting of the July lows is likely in the coming days. I don’t think we’re headed straight down from here, but a break below 10,500 is very possible in the next two weeks. Prices may stabilize somewhat after that. The next big move down looks like it will occur around Oct 7-9.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Euro, Oil and Gold continue sell off
The earliest chance for a meaningful bounce in commodities will likely be next week. I still think there is significant upside here in the Euro, Oil, and Gold but we may have wait a little while longer.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Oil plunges as Gustav passes
We may have to wait for the end of next week for prices to turn upward.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Oil jumps to $121 on Russia-US tensions
Although both commodities are now much higher than I had expected in my weekly forecast, at least this late week rise was correctly forecast as gains have accelerated from more tentative moves Monday and Tuesday. It seems that the bottom was formed at the end of last week and the trend now will be up at least until September 12. If this rally does come together soon, it will confirm my previous prediction for a late summer commodities rally.
It’s very possible that tomorrow will see a continued rally in commodities against the falling US dollar. I think it’s possible that Oil will again see $132 in the weeks ahead, possibly $140. Gold looks like it will follow suit, although it may not rise as quickly due to some significant chart afflictions I have noted in previous posts. I think $875-900 is a realistic target.
The Euro rose to 1.4885 and is poised to go over 1.50 tomorrow and into next week. This is setting the stage for a final rally in the Euro to 1.55 after which it will fall sharply back down to earth.
Stocks were flat in New York, although they fell earlier in Asia. It seems that a retesting of previous lows is now inevitable with a probability of new lows being set in the coming weeks. I had thought there was a chance to get above 12,000 on the Dow in the near term, but that now seems like wishful thinking. Tomorrow will be interesting.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Equities sell off amidst inflation fears
Gold and Oil rose today as they both attempted to form more solid bottoms. While Monday’s decline did not materialize, it’s possible we’ve seen the interim bottom here as the upward momentum should be intact the rest of the week. Friday will be key.
The Euro continued to tread water with more confidence in the neighbourhood of 1.48. The rest of the week should be mostly favourable.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Commodities bounce
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Gold falls below support level
Whatever the logic of the transit analysis might be, there’s no doubt that the GLD ETF chart is showing this price collapse because the natal subperiod lord Mercury is suffering under the aspect from natal Ketu. Ketu will station on this point for another month, so on the surface, this creates more of an uphill climb for Gold. Several weeks ago, I had thought that we’d see a bottom in August and I still think that’s the most likely outcome. I’m still confident the rally will occur, but there may be new lows here below $800, or even $750, and that will make our $900 target look very ambitious indeed. It’s not easy being a yellow metal this month.
Friday, August 8. 2008
Euro collapses to 1.50
With its biggest single day decline in eight years, the Euro lost 3 full cents today and closed at $1.50 as a growing number of investors recognized that the economic slowdown in Europe would keep interest rates stable in the medium term. This plunge further confirms my forecast for a brutal week for the Euro. Oil and Gold were also down sharply as crude ended at $115 and bullion to $864. All three have had an inverse relationship to equities and the U.S. dollar. The Euro and Gold are just 2% above their 280-day moving average and key support levels, while Oil has already broken below it. If the current trend towards the U.S. dollar continues, these key financial indicators may have a long way to fall.
Astrologically, I think we’ve already seen most of the decline for now, so even if the Euro, Oil and Gold are heading lower, it probably won’t be more than 3-5% over the next two or three weeks. After that, I am expecting a rally to recovers perhaps half to two-thirds of previous highs. That would take us back up to 1.53-1.55 for the Euro, the 900-940 range for Gold and $120-125 for Oil.
But the next leg down will likely be larger than this one. If the Euro loses 8-10% here (1.60 to 1.44-1.48), then the November/December decline will be at least double that, say 15-20%. That would take the Euro down to 1.25 by the start of the new year. Oil and Gold will likely follow suit with losses of similar magnitude.
Commodities retreat further, Euro below 1.54
The rally in the U.S. dollar continues this week as the Euro is now trading below 1.54 for the first time since March. Today’s decline comes as ECB President Trichet has confirmed that he is more concerned with weakening growth than inflation and that interest rate bias would be towards lowering rates. This confirms my prediction for this week that the Euro would be in for a rough ride as the transiting Mars aspected both the natal Mercury and Jupiter in the Euro chart. I only wish I had taken the hint that a falling Euro would translate into falling Oil and Gold prices as well this week. It’s not a particularly complex association given they have been moving in unison for months now.
I think the price correlation between Euro, Oil, and Gold will continue until there is a a significant correction that takes these prices closer to their long term moving average. This would be about 1.45 in the Euro, $100 in Oil, and $850 in Gold. They also display substantial inverse correlation to world equity prices.
Gold falls below $900
To almost no one’s surprise, Gold fell further today, closing at $886. I think we’ll see further declines back to $850, if not below.
Oil also fell back to $118. I think it may fall back to $110 before undertaking another rally later in August.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Oil drops below $120; Gold in danger
Oil staged a heavy retreat, however, and touched below $120 finishing around $121. I had expected Oil to do better today, but I still think there’s a good chance it will hold on to these levels for the rest of the week. That said, the downside risk to Oil is clearly greater than any upside movement, so I would be reluctant about taking any new long positions. September will see another bonafide rally once a more sturdy bottom is formed in August.
The Gold decline today to $907 has me re-evaluating my forecast for this week. I think my previous $930 target would now require a miracle. A more likely scenario would be for Gold to keep dropping this week, perhaps below $875. There is a real possibility it will test its 280-day moving average at $850 over the next couple of weeks. The Sun’s movement towards a conjunction with Ketu may therefore be the signal of an end of the current phase of prices above $900.
Another rally will begin starting in the last week of August.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Stocks rise in NY
As the US dollar rallied, Oil, Gold, and the Euro all lost ground. I believe there will be a turnaround here which will get us back to $125/930/1.57.
Friday, July 18, 2008
NY recovers; Oil falls below support
As predicted, Mercury’s further drift into Gemini correlated with crude breaking through $132 support this week and closed under $130. Mars was also in an unhelpful position with respect to natal Jupiter. With some hard progressed aspects forming in the coming days, the 30-day outlook looks precarious for oil. It will be prone to sharp declines below $120, and we may possibly see $110 again. While I had previously thought oil would recover in August, I think the rebound may be pushed back to September and October.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
New York slides
Oil recovered a little bit today but stayed down around $136. I think we’ll see more downside for the balance of the week.
Gold bounced back $5 to close at $928. After a rough Tuesday that saw an intraday as low as $912, prices are still off last week’s levels. Again, I think there is more downside risk here.
Monday, July 7, 2008
The Downward Spiral
Gold ended down, more or less as predicted. Oil also dropped back to $141 and signalled the possible end to this current rally.
Monday, June 30, 2008
NY rally fails
Bombay looked very weak Monday and closed down over 2%. The BSE is vulnerable to very large drops if there are any significant down days in New York, such as may occur tomorrow July 1. The BSE may have more strength Wednesday and Thursday, however as the Moon-Venus-Jupiter aspect perfects on a potentially significant natal point. But that may only put off the inevitable decline under 13k on the Sensex next week.
Tokyo was down only modestly and closed at 13,481. The Nikkei is likely to finish above 13k this week and perhaps closer to break even which would be a victory of sorts. I think most of the bearishness will hit next week.
As predicted, the Euro sold off almost half a cent today and closed at 1.5744. A flat week seems to be the best one can hope for.
Oil and Gold were largely unchanged, although Oil did reach another high this morning hitting above $143. I still think Oil has a ways to go here. I am less certain about Gold.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
NY drops 3% as winter lows retested
The severity of this sell off underscores just how pivotal the coming two weeks will be as Mars applies to Saturn. The S&P now has the all-important 1270 support level in its sights and if we break through that in the coming days, then the market will be in real trouble. I think we have some ways to go on the downside, possibly as much as 10%, which would take the Dow below 10,500 and 1170 on the S&P. Those are worse-case targets though and are little more than guesses. I’m loath to predict Friday’s trading, as things could go either way.
The BSE has managed to stay above 14k so far, but no doubt will sink below tomorrow. It seems I will be off in my forecast of Friday levels. It is going to be vulnerable to steep losses in the coming weeks.
As predicted, the Euro is having a bullish week as the greenback sold off in the wake of the Fed meeting that left rates unchanged. It’s already at the target of 1.57 and tomorrow bodes well.
Oil gained over $5 Thursday and closed at or near a record of $140. This confirms our bullish forecast for Oil for the week. We’ll easily hit $150 next week as Mercury crosses the ascendant of the Futures chart.
In a stunning turnaround, Gold rose over $30 today and hit $915 after being down in the earlier part of the week. It is well within range of our target price of $920. I am expecting prices to stay strong here and it may move higher Friday.
Monday, June 16, 2008
Oil sets record hitting $139
Gold also had a strong day as forecast, although it settled back in the afternoon to close at $886. Let’s see if it goes above $900 tomorrow.
In keeping with the retreating US dollar, the Euro followed commodities higher, closing well above 1.54. This bodes well for our bullish forecast for the week. If anything, the forecast rally may turn out to be too conservative.
Against expectations, stocks in New York were flat. I expect bearish sentiment to rule tomorrow, especially in the afternoon.
The BSE did well Monday. There is now a good chance it will close above 15k for the week. However, the upside remains limited.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Oil rallies above $136; Dow falls
The BSE has also been struggling this week so it will be interesting to see how low it can fall. It seems certain to break through 15,000, but it may finally revisit winter lows if the selling develops a head of steam. It’s very possible if the Nifty Futures chart works as advertised. The natal conjunction of Sun and Venus at 27 Taurus is currently under aspect from tr. Rahu while tr. Sun and Venus more or less exactly conjoin their natal positions. There is a lot of energy there for a significant price movement. And given that Tr Rahu is conjunct the natal Uranus opposed by tr Mars, it really does look quite precarious for long positions. This is not to say a sudden rally might also manifest from the Rahu-Sun-Venus configuration, but all things considered, I think the sentiment should be negative, especially for Friday.
I missed the early week sell off in the Euro, but today’s rally has put it in better position for a late week move upwards. Friday is key here since the tr Venus conjoins the natal Moon in the 10th house. By rights, it should be a major rally. This will be a good test of the usefulness of the Euro chart (Jan 1 1999, 00.00).
After coming off Friday’s highs, Oil again rallied today on reports of falling US inventories and closed up $5 to $136. I had forecast continued strength this week and today’s action partially validates that prediction. The tr Sun and Venus are very close to the Ascendant in the US Oil ETF chart so that may be one possible source of the rally. Also they are applying to trine Neptune close to the MC in the futures chart, so if all goes according to plan (which it never does), we may see Oil well over $140 by the end of the week.
Gold had a good day today finally as it closed up $14 to $883. I had predicted the early week sell off from the tr Mars opposing the Gold ETF Moon, although I hadn’t quite allowed for that much of a rout. I still think we have some upside to explore for the rest of the week, although my forecast high of $920 may be overly optimistic.
Friday, June 6, 2008
Oil soars on US dollar weakness
Oil is up again today — over $6 right now, to $134.
I can’t help but think this is part of the rally I forecast last week that would result from the Tr Sun and Venus approaching the Asc of the futures chart. Of course, one unknown was exactly where the ascendant of the Oil futures chart was. The 9.00 am chart has an ascendant of 22 Taurus, which is exactly where Sun and Venus are today. This massive rally yesterday and today would appear to be good confirmation of the this chart.
If we take the 9.20 chart (Asc 27 Taurus), then we could assume that this rally still has a ways to go through next week as the Sun and Venus will continue to apply to the ascendant until Jun 11-12.
If the 9.00 chart is correct, then we might see a pullback early next week. If the 9.20 chart is correct, then the pullback may occur late next week or the week after. Either way, I don’t think this rally will last too much longer.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 6/02/2008 10:30:00 AM
Monday, June 2, 2008
New York slips
As predicted, New York lost about 1% today as the indexes closed at 12,503/1385. This may have been in part due to the Moon-Saturn square. While there is a good chance for a rally tomorrow and into Wednesday, my conviction isn’t rock solid. I think we’re entering into a potentially difficult period over the next week as Mars applies to the Ketu. The natal Uranus in the 1792 chart sits at 24 Cancer so that may be one possible target for the transiting Mars.
And next week will feature the Sun-Venus (28 Taurus) in tight conjunction squaring the transiting Uranus (28 Aquarius). And remember too that the natal Mars in the 1792 chart sits at 27 Leo. That’s forming a t-square which is almost never favourable. So it’s hard to see the market moving much higher here and the downside risk is considerable. I think it will probably start moving lower before the end of this week, with the bigger losses occurring next week. I believe there is a genuine risk of a major decline here — perhaps as much as 5% so we might see the SPX below 1320 at some point in the next two weeks.
The Euro didn’t quite get the bounce today that I thought it would as it never really got off the ground and finished only marginally higher. It ended up at .5542.
I also predicted Oil would be stronger but that, too, ended up only 0.22 to $127.50. Tomorrow ought to see more on the plus side.
Gold fared somewhat better, so my bullish prediction was partially fulfilled as closed at $897 up 5.50. Let’s see if it can stretch out this rally another day.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 6/02/2008 05:52:00 PM
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
New York drops 1.5%
Stocks dropped today on the release of the Fed notes which suggested that the current phase of rate cuts are likely over. The Dow closed at 12,601 while the SPX ended at 1390. While I had thought we were due for an up day midweek in advance of the bearish Sun-Saturn square Thursday and Friday, it seems that the pessimism got a head start. I think this is the beginning of a leg down that will last through next week. The Mercury will station squaring Uranus next week (although the markets will be closed for Memorial Day Monday), so this really may be quite a volatile and negative run here. I would not be surprised to see us approach the bottom of recent trading ranges — 11,800/1270, although the Dow has been beaten up more than the SPX so it will be more likely to get there. We may even get into a position of actually re-testing those levels next week. If Friday is really bad (-2%), then the re-test scenario will be more likely.
While tr Venus conjoins the natal Mercury in the 1792 chart, Sun is applying to its degreewise square with Saturn just one degree past the natal Sun in this chart. Happy Birthday, NYSE — I can’t imagine a worse gift than a Sun-Saturn square in a return chart. It bodes very poorly for the year ahead. Also, the Mercury is stationing square Uranus but that is also square the natal 1792 Mars and forms a very volatile t-square. I think May 30 may be the short term bottom.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Oil passes $132
As predicted, the speculative frenzy in oil continues as it is currently trading over $132. This confirms my sense that the approaching Mercury station in tight aspect to Rahu is fueling this price spiral. A key additional element is that this stationing Mercury is sitting just a few degrees from the Ascendant of the Oil Futures chart. Last week, I had thought that the Mars square to the Moon-Saturn would force prices down, but it’s clear that this Mercury-Rahu pattern is much stronger. With Mercury still going forward until Monday, prices should continue rising. I would not rule out $140 at this point.
Prices may decline after Monday when Mercury goes retrograde, but even there it’s important to remember that everything else will still be intact. It will still be under the aspect of Rahu for another week, and it will still conjoin the natal ascendant of the futures chart. This suggest that even if the decline happens, it may not last. As a pure guess, I think we could it fall back $10 from whatever high it ends up making this week But I can see that another mini-rally is possible by the second week of June as tr Sun and Venus conjoin the late Taurus ascendant.
All in all, I don’t see oil prices falling back sharply in the coming three weeks. By the second half of June, we may start to see some sanity again. I expect prices to fall gradually back down to earth through July and early August.
Thursday, May 15 2008
NY stocks rise on grand trine
New York is up 1% yesterday on better than expected inflation news. While
the decline I forecast early in the week has yet to make an appearance,
it’s interesting to note that the rally I expected today did come off as
planned. This may be associated with the grand trine of Jupiter (28
Sagittarius), Sun (0 Taurus) and Moon (0 Virgo) where all planets are
120 degrees from each other. I am still expecting a significant pull
back sometime this week.
The moral of this story may be the predominant influence of transiting
patterns over any relevant natal chart configurations.
Tuesday, May 6 2008
Oil above $120
Crude is again above $120 today and climbing. Finding a compelling
explanation for this is difficult, although I suspect it can be linked in some way to the approaching Jupiter station at 28 Sag on Friday near the 8th equal house cusp of the futures chart. This can’t really explain one-day price movements, but it does illuminate a speculative (unearned = 8th house) top.
One possible peak to watch out for will be on Friday when tr Mercury
opposes the natal Jupiter in the futures chart. By most parameters,
Mercury is pratyantardasha (subsubperiod) lord, so this Jupiter
influence ought to give a boost to prices.
After Friday’s station by Jupiter, the separation of this Mercury aspect, and tr Mars aspect to the Moon-Saturn, prices should tumble significantly next week. $110 is possible.
Friday, May 2, 2008
NY holds onto gains
As a potentially bullish indicator, American markets held onto yesterday’s gains as the Dow closed above the critical psychological level of 13,000 and the S&P closed above 1400. Even more importantly, both averages closed above their 200-day moving average which ought to have made investors giddy at the prospect of even higher highs. Today’s job report was much better than forecast as the US economy only lost 20,000 jobs in the past month. For all these positive indicators, however, one gets the sense that the market isn’t brimming with optimism. Trading volumes are down since March and market breadth is not a favourable as it might be if a significant bull run is imminent. In other words, there is good reason to believe that this rise is petering out and bumping up against resistance levels here. As a side note, I would add that Warren Buffet meets with Berkshire-Hathaway investors in Omaha tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if the implied pessimism of the Mercury-Saturn square on Saturday carries over in his message.
While I’ve been mistakenly bearish in the face of the past couple weeks of rising prices, I am maintaining my generally bearish stance. Saturn’s turns direct today and will oppose the S&P Mercury. Jupiter turns retrograde next Friday the 9th which may also change the hitherto bullish market sentiment. Monday May 12th looks particularly volatile on the downside. After the lows are made somewhere between May 15-25, I think we see another meaningful rally that approaches current levels. This will set the stage in mid to late June for a more substantial correction that retests the winter lows.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Fed cuts 25 pts
New York ended modestly lower after the Fed cut rates 25 pts today. As predicted, the market did get a little boost leading up the announcement and also shortly after coinciding with the favourable transit of the Moon to the S&P natal Venus. The failure of the market to hold on to these gains by the close sets the stage for what will likely be more downward pressure Thursday and Friday. Friday may see a significant sell off, perhaps on the order of 2%.
Both Bombay and Tokyo both closed marginally lower Tuesday in advance of the Fed meeting. Thursday may be fairly quiet but look for selling to pick up for Friday.
The Euro bounced back a little and closed above 1.56. This was in keeping with my expectation. There’s a good chance for further upward movement Thursday.
Oil fell further today closing at $114. I had wondered if there would be a pause in the decline, but this is proof that we can look forward to a fairly sharp pullback as Mars moves deeper into Cancer. There is a chance for some sort of snapback rally, perhaps on Friday, but this will be short-lived and probably won’t last til the close. $110 is very possible by the end of the week.
As forecast, Gold also fell Tuesday closing at $865. Prices will likely be lower by Friday, perhaps near $850..
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
NY quiet ahead of Fed meeting; US dollar rises
New York edged lower in anticipation of tomorrow’s Fed meeting. The transiting Moon will be at 13 Aquarius at the time of the mid-afternoon announcement, which puts it in the neighbourhood of the S&P Venus in the 10th house. Other things being equal, this is a good placement that might give the market a little boost. And yet, the Mars in the second degree of Cancer aspecting the 1792 Jupiter suggests that any gain will be short-lived. The market may wait until Thursday or Friday to sell off to any extent.
Bombay is coming off a bullish Tuesday that saw the Sensex up 2% to 17,400. Another up day is very possible Wednesday as transiting Sun comes under the helpful influence of the natal Jupiter in the BSE-100 chart. This may push the Sensex over some key moving averages and give sentiment a boost. If the market only closes slightly above these levels, then the bullish signal will remain to be confirmed. A correction is only possible for Friday or perhaps Monday.
As forecast, the Euro headed lower as it closed today at 1.5575. Look for the sell off to continue tomorrow, although prices may firm up for the end of the week.
Oil plunged over $3 Tuesday and closed at $115.62 as my prediction for a major correction was partially borne out. Wednesday doesn’t look obviously bad, so it’s possible that current prices may hold, at least until Thursday or Friday when they will certainly turn lower again.
Gold closed down $18 to $876, as per my bearish prediction. Prices could hold up Wednesday around here, but by Friday, look for lower lows.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
US dollar rebounds
Some good news on durable goods caused the US dollar to rebound on expectations that the Fed was near the end of its easing phase. This put a dent in the speculation that has been fueling the recent rise in the Euro and crude oil. The Euro closed down two full cents to under $1.57. While I had expected a sharp pullback, I thought the decline would not get started until next week. This is useful lesson on the unreliability of exact transit points as tr Venus had yet to conjoin the natal Saturn. I think we will likely see the retracement continue for the next week as tr Mars will aspect the natal Venus. I think there will be rallies in the weeks ahead, but the short term future looks quite bearish. We could be under 1.50 very quickly. I take some solace in the fact the 1.60 forecast was achieved, if only briefly.
Oil sold off as well closing near $116. This decline was also a little premature as Venus still hasn’t quite left Pisces yet. Perhaps the skies are not as neatly divided as one would like. The Sun-Saturn sell off I had forecast came a day later than expected. I don’t see us selling off hugely Friday but a down day is likely. Next week does look more bearish, so we may fall back below $110.
Gold fell back sharply to $890 today mostly on the renewed interest in the US dollar. I had wondered about the possible negative effects of the Mars opposition to Venus at the end of the week. That bearish manifested a day earlier than forecast, however, and may well extend the weakness into tomorrow. I don’t think we’re headed straight down here, but the trend will be mostly negative over the next couple weeks.
US stocks ended up modestly to return to where they started the week. Microsoft’s earnings outlook has sparked some after-hours selling, so we’ll see how negative the market will be Friday.
The Sensex has held on to early gains this week but has been unable to build upon them. I think it will fall back near Monday’s levels.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
New York sags; Oil climbs higher
New York dropped almost 1% today as the Dow closed at 12,720 and the S&P at 1375. This basically confirms our bearish weekly forecast so far. Let’s see if the down trend continues as the Mars-Jupiter aspect tightens.
The Euro touched above 1.60 for the first time and closed at 1.598. This is in keeping with our expectation. Look for it to close above 1.60 tomorrow or Thursday.
Oil continued its upward climb at it closed above $118, and reached as high as $119 intraday. This also confirms are bullish forecast as Venus continues its transit of Pisces. It will certainly push higher later in the week.
Gold was higher for the second straight day, closing at $920, right in line with my weekly forecast. I am expecting bigger gains as the week goes on, so that is something to watch for.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Market Review — week of Apr 14-18
On positive earnings news from Google, New York rallied strongly Friday to finish the week at 12,849 on the Dow and 1390 on the S&P. This left our bearish forecast in the dust. I missed the upward move by overestimating the negative influence of Ketu on the transiting Sun and Mercury. Stocks are near some key resistance levels here, so any more upside would be seen as a very bullish breakout move. I think it’s possible we may see some up days here that put us over that 13,000/1400 threshold, but the downside risk is still greater so new gains will likely not hold. Next week features the apparently bearish Mars-Jupiter opposition coming exact so we will have to watch that carefully. A longer lasting rally is more likely to begin in May after the the Sun-Saturn square has occurred and run into early June.
Bombay had a bullish week closing at 16,481. Again, optimism returned despite our analysis to the contrary. One plausible explanation of the upward movement can be seen in the BSE Nifty Futures chart where tr. Venus conjoined the equal 9th house cusp while the natal lagnesh Moon was aspected by tr Sun and Mercury. Both of these are clearly bullish signals and suggests that this chart warrants further consideration as a useful proxy for the BSE.
Tokyo followed the upward trend this week and gained about 1% to close at 13,476. This confirmed our bullish forecast based on the TSE 1949 chart as tr Venus approached the unequal 10th house cusp.
Euro closed Friday at $1.581, down over a cent after touching $1.595 briefly midweek. This also confirmed our negative forecast for the week, although only barely. Our Thursday revised forecast was borne out by Friday’s sell off as the transiting Sun finally combined with the natal 8th house Saturn, albeit a couple of degrees after the fact. There are still a preponderance of bullish factors at work in this chart that should tend to push it higher in the coming weeks, although after May 9th, that climb may be weakened, perhaps mortally.
Oil became a haven for speculators as it powered to new all-time highs, closing at $116.83 on Friday. Our bearish prediction was defied by the strength of transiting bhukti lord Venus exalted in Pisces and transiting the 11th house of gains in the futures chart. My expectation was that the influence of the tr Sun and Mercury over the natal 12th house Mars would take prices down. The fact that this Mars sits in the unequal 11th house suggests that whole sign house placements may demand alternative interpretations from time to time. While Venus’ movement into Aries after the 25th may bring a slowing of recent gains, I think we’ll have to wait for May and Mars’ ingress into Cancer to bring prices down.
Gold closed down $27 to $915. After a surprisingly strong week, at least our revised Wednesday forecast indicated the possibility of a Friday decline with tr Venus coming within range of the aspect from natal Saturn in the futures chart. The medium term factors are still in place for a rally in the next couple of weeks, although I note that the Mars-Jupiter opposition next week will activate the natal Venus in the futures chart. This is likely bullish given Mars’ rulership over the 11th house, but it is not certain.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Markets rise on earnings optimism
New York was up 2% today on the basis of good earnings from Intel, as some investors began to believe that the worst was over. While I called for a decline this week, I still think we can look for a significant decline over the next 4 or 5 trading days. My original downside target of 11,750/1270 probably won’t be met here, but look for a 2% down day, most likely early next week.
Closing yesterday at 16,244, Bombay continues to be strong this week. Tr Venus conjoins natal 1875 Rahu tomorrow so that should account for the up day that is in store but beware of gains made with Rahu — they often don’t last. There are still some potentially negative influences such as the Mars conjoining the natal Sun but given the market behaviour so far, it may be that Mars rules good houses in the natal chart, i.e. its conjunction coincides with gains and not losses.
Tokyo is above 13,000 and will likely climb higher as forecast. Tr Venus is approaching the MC as Sun-Mercury activate the powerful 10th house Rahu in the natal chart.
The Euro is a record high of 1.595 today laying waste to my expectation for a pullback as Sun-Mercury conjoined the natal Saturn. Certainly, the Euro is due to continue rising over the next few weeks, but it is overdue for a brief correction here. The fact that tr Mars is squaring the natal Mars only reinforces my belief that it is headed sharply lower day (>1%) at some point this week.
While oil did retreat to $112 in morning trading, it rose past $114 in the afternoon. Our longer term forecast has it going higher over the next few weeks ($120 is likely), so it seems that short term negative transits are manifesting as very temporary pullbacks that do not last through to the close. A few dates to watch out for as possible tops then are: 1) Apr 25 when tr Venus enters Aries which is the 12th house in the Oil futures chart; 2) April 28th when tr Mars enters Cancer and thereby afflicts the Moon-Saturn conjunction in the futures chart; 3) May 4th when tr Rahu begins to separate from tr Neptune, which may have had a bullish influence on the price of crude and; 4) May 9th when Jupiter turns retrograde and begins to move away from the equal 8th house cusp in the futures chart. All these factors may each contribute to the easing of the price once we get into May.
Gold rose again today closing at $948. It is also on track with our medium term forecast to continue rising until the Jupiter station in May. The next chance for a price decline might be Friday, and then again early next week. A pressing question now might be whether or not gold can climb back over $1000 on this current Jupiter rally. Given its ability to shake off some apparently negative transits, I’d say it’s very doable. It will have about two weeks to do it.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Commodities continue advance
Oil and Gold show no signs of backing off their recent gains. Oil has hit another all-time high today at $113. This is contrary to my expectations as I thought the Sun-Mercury transit would produce more of a pullback this week. This may still happen since the Sun-Mercury falls under the aspect of natal Ketu tomorrow and Thursday. However, whatever declines occur will be at levels much higher than forecast, perhaps back to $110-112. So while there will be some days of profit taking, it’s clear to me that the bullish mood leading up to the coming Jupiter station on May 9 continues to rule these markets. The next decline in crude is most likely early next week as the tr. Sun opposes the natal Saturn in the futures chart. This will drop prices by 2% or more. This opposition is generally a more difficult aspect than the Sun-Mercury conjunct natal Mars.
As a caveat on my bearish Gold forecast, I had wondered if the tr Mars to natal Saturn conjunction might be too far past exact to move the market down Monday. In light of the modest gains we’ve seen so far this week, that is likely what has happened as the tr Jupiter approaching the natal Venus overwhelmed everything else. I still think we will see significant declines (>2%) over the rest of week, however, as tr Venus falls under the 10th house aspect of the natal Saturn. We should finish below $920 by Friday. I think gold will generally move higher over the next two weeks until Jupiter changes direction but there will be days of significant declines as well.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Market Review – week of April 7 – 11
New York tanked 2% on GE’s disappointing earnings report Friday, as the averages closed at 12,325 and 1332. This was a nice confirmation of last week’s forecast for a finish under 12,400/1340. Presumably, this was a delayed reaction to the Sun-Jupiter and Mercury-Mars squares that perfected Thursday. Given that General Electric is a bellwether for the market and the economy, these bad earnings are the necessary fuel to take us much lower next week as we have been predicting. With one or two more companies underwhelming with earnings, there is a very real chance (50-50) that we could see a re-test of the March lows (11,700/1270). We’re entering a more solidly bearish time over the coming weeks where even larger declines are possible. At the moment, I think a short term bottom might occur in the first or second week of May. I’ll post more of my thoughts on this Sunday.
The BSE continues to defy gravity as it finished the week up on Friday, at a healthy 15,807. Given the NY decline, a Monday drop is certain which will fulfill our now belated forecast.
Tokyo also closed Friday up 378, to finish at 13,323. Like Bombay, this was higher than our forecast. I think Asian markets will be playing catch up on the downside with American markets next week, although Japan will likely be a better performer.
The Euro closed Friday above $1.58. Our forecast had it declining this week, so we were premature. The planetary alignments for next week are decidedly negative in the Euro chart. $1.55 or below is very possible. Aside from some short term moves down, I think we’ll likely see more strength in the Euro until Jupiter turns retrograde on May 9.
Oil finished up at $110, which was above our expected range of $105 -108, but not entirely unexpected. We will see some correction next week.
Gold closed down Friday to close at $927. The unexpected upside here clearly shows the underlying strength of the bull market in gold. Declines are likely next week, maybe to $900 or below, but the Jupiter station in May does look more and more like a medium term turning point.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Gold revived
While I missed this week’s price rise in Gold, I think I understand it a bit better now. It appears that we’re more likely to see price increases as long as tr Jupiter (27 Sg) is closing in on the natal Venus (29 Sg) of the futures chart. In my forecast last year, I originally believed that a price peak would be likely near the Jupiter station in May, but recent declines had shaken my confidence in that forecast. It seems that the declines occurred while tr Jupiter was moving in between natal Mercury (22 Sg) and natal Venus (29 Sg) and where it had less strength to boost prices.
There will be further price dips, such as Friday and possibly Monday as the Mars contacts the natal Saturn. But as long as the Jupiter is applying to the Venus, I think we will tend to see increases, possibly over $1000. I’ll refine this upward limit in the days ahead, depending on what kind of pullback we see through the weekend. The short term top should occur near the Jupiter station May 9. Once Jupiter turns away from Venus, prices should weaken.
Interestingly, the bearish conjunction of tr Mars to the natal Saturn actually perfects over the weekend so that might also reduce the downside somewhat so the price may bottom out well above $900. Next week we should see the gains return.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
That gentle sinking feeling
Worldwide markets slipped back Tuesday after Monday’s relative strength. New York ended down about 0.5% closing at 12,576/1365. We should see continued downward momentum Wednesday, but some upward intraday movement is still possible.
Bombay saw some profit taking after Monday’s unexpected rise as the Sensex closed down 169 pts to 15,587. I expect more significant movement on the downside Wednesday, maybe to 15,000.
Tokyo fell back 1.5% to 13,250. Expect more of the same Wednesday, although 13,000 resistance may hold.
Against our expectations, the Euro is holding fast to $1.57 after Tuesday’s trading. The negative pressure should increase as the week goes on, although the selling may be fairly modest and focused on Thursday’s trading.
Oil was rock solid today holding onto Monday’s gain to close up a bit at $108.86. This confirms my weekly forecast for rising prices in the early part of the week. There will likely be some pullback as we go on this week.
Gold dropped back $9 to $918 Tuesday after a strong Monday. I think most of the momentum will be down this week starting Wednesday as tr Moon conjoins the natal Ketu. We are on target to close under $900 for the week.
Friday, April 4, 2008
Stocks finish flat/ Market Review — week of Mar 31- Apr 4
Stocks in NY ended the day flat to close up for the week with the Dow at 12,606 and the S&P at 1370. While we thought the market might show more strength Friday, this was largely in keeping with our weekly forecast, although we closed a little higher than expected.
Tokyo closed down modestly on Friday. Our call to close higher than 13k on the Nikkei was correct as the index finished at 13,293. Bombay closed down Friday which went against expectation and closed at 15,343. I underestimated the bearish importance of the transit Sun conjunction with the natal Rahu in the BSE 1875 chart. The BSE did much poorer than expected this week and this bodes poorly for next week as well and beyond. There is some real downside potential here in the coming weeks.
The Euro finished strong as predicted as it closed at 1.573, up half a cent. Unfortunately, our forecast for a gain this week did not come to pass as we only managed to return to the Monday open. This reflects the growing strength of the US dollar generally. Next week may be the last chance to hit $1.60 for a while, and I’m thinking it may not happen, since the week after next looks very bearish.
We missed the our revised Friday forecast on Oil however, as it rose $2 to finish at $106. Our weekly forecast did have crude rising, so getting the direction right is some consolation. Next week will likely see Oil trend downwards.
Gold finished higher by $3 to end the day at $913. We missed the big sell off Monday so our weekly forecast was far too optimistic. I expect the weakness to continue next week, especially by Friday.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Commodities firm up
Not much movement in New York today, as the markets closed up slightly. My guess was for a mostly flat day and that’s what we got. Transiting Moon conjoins Venus in Pisces in the 11th house of the S&P chart tomorrow so there will be some bullish sentiment out there supporting the market. We could see a a significant up day (>1%) if the market is up on the open. I will be watching the effects of the Pisces ingress of Moon shortly after 10. If it’s up already by then, then it will likely move higher by the close.
Tokyo investors look like they are taking some profits in early Friday trading. We should still finish above 13k on the Nikkei for the week, however. The BSE closed mostly flat Thursday at 15, 832. The market opens with the Moon in exact trine to the natal Sun in the 1875 chart. I would look for a gain Friday.
The Euro was pretty solid at 1.566, but did not move higher at all. Tomorrow should be a bigger up day as the Moon moves towards the natal Jupiter. Let’s see if we can hit $1.58 again.
Oil held firm near $104 as we thought it might. I think we should see some retreat in oil on Friday, especially in the afternoon EDT. If the negative trend is established early before the Moon moves into sidereal Pisces (at 10 a.m), then we may drop below $102, perhaps well below. If the open isn’t too bad, then the decline will be more modest.
As predicted, Gold made a small gain to $908. I think it’s due for another decline however as the transiting Sun comes under the square aspect from natal Saturn in the futures chart. If this aspect really kicks in, we could be back under $900 by the close.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Oil and gold bounce back
Stocks in NY finished slightly lower fulfilling the downside bias we expected with the Moon-Rahu conjunction at the open. I’m not sure about tomorrow — I can’t find a definitive trend. Another flat day is possible. By contrast, Friday looks more solidly bullish.
Tokyo closed above 13,100 yesterday as we forecast. I think it will add to recent gains Thursday, and possibly Friday also. 13,500 by the end of the week is within reach.
The BSE also gained about 1% yesterday to close at 15,750, but this rise was much less than on other markets. This is what I had wondered about with the tr Venus falling under the Mars aspect. The gains were, indeed, less than expected in the wake of New York’s big 3.5% gain the previous day. I think it will see only a mild price move Thursday, possibly on the up side. Bombay is headed for a sharp drop early next week however with the Mars coming to the natal 1875 Mercury, which will activate the nodes as well. Could be 5% on the downside.
The Euro stabilized as forecast, and even managed a 0.007 gain. This should continue through to Friday.
Oil and Gold came back after yesterday’s sell off as we thought they might. Gold came back nicely to $900, while Oil exceeded our expectations by rising to $104.78. Oil should continue to move up, although much less strongly than today. Gold may hold steady or rise a bit.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Confidence returns
New York stocks jumped over 3% today as investors began to feel that the worst of the sub-prime crisis is over. The Dow finished up 391 to 12,654 and the S&P closed up 47 to 1370. This rise was not unexpected, particularly in light of yesterday’s modest up day that broke the negative sentiment from last week and the Sun-Mars square. I think we will see at least one more up day this week, possibly two. I think we will move above the 12,750/1380 resistance level and even 13,000/1400 is in reach. Tomorrow opens with the Moon conjunct Rahu so trading should be hectic. There should be a downside bias.
Logic suggests that Bombay ought to follow NY up tomorrow, and yet I see that tr Venus falls under the aspect of natal Mars in the 1875 BSE chart. This introduces some bearishness into the mix that may take hold in the afternoon. Hard to imagine it pushing closing prices lower, but perhaps gains will be less than expected (<4%) Tokyo is up over 13,000 in early trading Wednesday, as per our forecast. Look for more strength through the week.
Like oil and gold, the Euro backed off recent highs and sold off 2 cents back under $1.56. I think it will rise towards the end of the week, although tomorrow may see some treading of water near these levels. $1.58 is looking pretty far away right now.
Oil slumped back to $100, against our expectations. I can see prices firming up tomorrow.
Gold has decided to head south for a while and look for more solid footing before its next run-up. It fell $30 today to about $885, although it is up in early Asian trading. I think some price recovery towards $900 is likely Wednesday as the Moon-Rahu conjunction may cause fears and uncertainty to get the better of some traders.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Market Review — week of Mar 24-28
As predicted, New York finished down today a little less than 1%. That transiting Moon placement clearly outweighed the positive contained in the Venus-Uranus conjunction. Overall for the week, the market fell about 1% as the Dow settled at 12,216 and the S&P at 1315. In a piece of pure good luck, I had forecast a modestly down week overall right in line with what transpired. Of course, the frequent errors in daily calls reveal a more complex and frankly, ugly reality to my forecasting abilities Oh well, practice makes perfect.
Tokyo didn’t quite make it to my forecast high of 13,000 but it came close and finished as 12,820. Bombay finished up Friday as forecast, although we missed the big rally at the close. For the week it finished at 16,371, up strongly from Monday’s open. I totally missed this rally, but hopefully the acquisition of the new BSE data improves my luck down the line.
The Euro had a good week as forecast, although $1.60 stayed out of reach. Friday’s action went more or less according to the prediction, as it closed at $1.5798. I had thought it would sell off early and then struggle back to near 1.58 which it did.
Oil did much worse than I thought Friday as it dropped over 2% to closed at $105.25. Gold fell back $17.50 to end up at $936. While I thought it would fare poorly on Friday, my weekly forecast was far too bearish.
Monday has all the appearances of a hectic trading day as the Sun and Mars move into a western square aspect. I expect the Euro to go higher (and likely oil and gold as well) and stocks to decline. I’ll give more details in my Sunday forecast.
Thursday, March 27 2008
Down again
American markets lost 1% again today as investors saw no reason to buy stocks in the current climate of uncertainty. It seems that the deeper negativity contained in the applying Sun-Mars square is overwhelming positive sentiment of the Venus-Uranus conjunction. Tomorrow looks like another battle as the tr Moon is in aspect with Ketu which is normally a bearish influence. But the Venus-Uranus perfects, so it’s hard to think all the action will be negative. Still I think we’ll finish down for the day.
Bombay did finish a little lower yesterday as I thought it might, but not very an appreciable amount. The BSE should fare well for most of the day, although some decline is more likely toward the close.
The Euro didn’t do much today. Tomorrow looks like a negative start in Europe but with some recovery by the afternoon EST. We should close again near $1.58 but probably a little lower.
Oil rose 1% today and although Gold only held steady. I think Oil is looking stronger of the two tomorrow and should add to its gains this week. I’m not sure that gold will rise, however.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Hedges return
American markets were down about 1% today as more bad economic numbers came in. This market obviously has a pretty thin skin these days for that sort of thing. That Venus conjunction with the New Moon chart was AWOL today as the Moon-Saturn square dictated the grim mood. I think the market has one more up day in it this week, and the ingress of the Moon into Jyeshta occurs tomorrow with benefic Jupiter high in the sky.
Bombay looks negative for Thursday as the transiting Moon falls under the aspect of natal Ketu in the BSE chart. Tokyo has already started lower.
The Euro continued its winning streak week as it rose past $1.58 as investors again sought hedges against a falling greenback and inflation. Look for more gains tomorrow.
Oil and Gold both had big gains today. Both will continue to come back towards their pre-March 18th levels this week. Tomorrow will be similar to today’s action as gains could be over 2%.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Complex energies
While I had thought that the trend would be mostly negative tomorrow due to the Moon squaring the Saturn-Ketu, there is another contact that is potentially very favourable. The previous New Moon occurred at 23 Aquarius 38 on March 7. Both Mercury and Venus will conjoin that point tomorrow and Thursday which may be a positive influence on sentiment. How these two opposed energies resolve themselves will determine the market’s direction. I would tend to think that the bulls have more meat to chew on than the bears on this one.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
New York treads water
North American markets stayed flat today amidst negative news of falling consumer sentiment. Given recent nervousness, that might be interpreted as a bullish signal. Two weeks ago, that kind of news would have sparked a sell off. So while I thought we’d be up today, after two days, we are about where I thought we’d be, although I’m not claiming any prescience.
This week’s planetary motion will be a good test of the popular 7.52 am chart of the New York Stock Exchange which has 23 Gemini rising (Lahiri). Both Mercury and Venus are transiting on the equal 9th house cusp in Aquarius which ought to spark a gain overall on the week. So far we are up over 1% but if this chart is correct, one would expect at least another 1% before the planets move off.
Bombay roared back to life by climbing above 16k in an impressive 6% rally. I’m less keen on the next couple of days however, as Moon will square the Saturn-Ketu conjunction tomorrow and Moon’s ingress into Anuradha in the afternoon suggests it may be hard for the market to finish in the plus column on Thursday. Friday looks good though. Tokyo added 2% as well to get back to 12,700. There is some chance for modest intraday gains Wednesday, but they may not hold by the close. Thursday looks more negative, but Friday should be a high point. But even there, we may well ask if the applying Sun-Mars square will take hold and force investors to the exits. Right now, I don’t think so. Next Monday looks more like a day of reckoning, however.
Our Euro forecast is more on track, as it rose two cents today to 1.565. This is looking more like it may hit 1.60 very soon.
Oil rose by just $0.50 while Gold had a strong day adding $16 to close at $930. I had thought that Tuesday would be good for gold and that came to pass. As I suggested early last week before the post-Fed cut gold collapse there appears to be a divergence forming as the Euro and Gold are still valid dollar plays versus Oil, which recession fears have finally undercut its appeal as an inflation hedge. Still, in keeping with my original forecast, I don’t expect to see gold duplicating the extent of today’s rally, although it may not finish the week as weakly as forecast.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Good news buoys markets
Some good news on the housing front and a larger bid for Bear Stearns
got the markets going 1.5% higher — a day earlier than I expected. I
had thought Tuesday would seen a big 2% gain. Contrary to my previous
call for an overall negative week, I think we’re headed mostly higher
here. Tomorrow still looks good to me so we may start to run up against
resistance levels at 12,750/1370. I think there’s a fair chance we will
break through them at some point in the day, even if we fall back
beneath them at the close. There is a good chance for a major dip in
the afternoon.
It’s worth noting that Mercury-Venus conjoined today as Venus
surrendered its leading position to Mercury. This conjunction fell
exactly on the natal Sun in the S&P chart so it’s not too surprising
that we went up. It will be interesting to see how much upward karma is
left in both those conjunctions for tomorrow and beyond.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Market Review — week of Mar 17-21
Markets came back strong after the Fed rate cut as the Dow closed up 261 points to 12,361 while the SPX finished up 31 to close at 1329. I had thought we were due for a rally, but I reckoned it would be next week so my bearish forecast this week missed the mark. We’re still in line with our medium term forecast of sideways movement between 1270 and 1380. Early April may see some rallies to the high side of that range, but the end of the month looks bearish as Rahu will tightly conjoin Neptune as Neptune prepares to enter Aquarius.
Tokyo closed up for the week at 12,482, again upstaging my gloomy forecast. I think Tokyo is likely to start a significant rally in April that extends into May. This may take the Nikkei up to recent resistance levels to14,000. Maybe they’ll finally get around to appointing someone to head the BOJ. Bombay did follow the script I had prepared and closed below 15,000 as forecast. While we might see some gains in the weeks ahead, I don’t think there is much upside to the Sensex in the coming months while the downside risk is hard to ignore. There is solid support at 14,000 that will be severely tested in the coming months. I don’t think it’s going to hold.
The Euro finally succumbed to some greenback optimism and broke it’s winning streak closing at $1.543. Our medium term forecast for a much higher Euro above 1.60 is still in place but we’ll have to wait a while longer.
I correctly called the oil pullback this week as it closed at 101.84. I think it’s likely to drift down further to the $90 to $100 range over the next two months as fears of a slowdown take root. Prices should rebound after Jupiter turns retrograde in early May. The late summer should see prices making new all-time highs.
Gold’s fall from stratospheric grace was perhaps the biggest story this week. It was one I missed unfortunately. I knew that there was a no-man’s land in between Mercury and Venus in the gold futures chart that transiting Jupiter could not hope to straddle indefinitely. It seems to have lost its boosting power in the middle, just as transiting Mars was moving into position in the 6th house. There may be a pullback under $900 in the coming weeks as the price consolidates with profit taking. We may still see rallies towards $1000 in April but I’m not sure they will succeed. The medium term prospects for gold are still very bullish by my reckoning as Jupiter’s retrograde motion in May will likely help support prices. A monster rally will ensue in August and September where gold will likely move past $1100 and well beyond.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Markets up off the mat — at least for now
NY markets staged a stunning 4% rally today in the wake of a huge rate 75 pt cut and some decent earnings news from teetering investment houses. Both key indexes closed above their old support levels of 12,150 and 1320 as investors did not succumb to fear.
Although I missed this rally completely, I take some comfort in the fact that the markets are moving within the range I laid out back in January and February. At that time, I thought that the markets would be increasingly choppy especially on the downside and rallies towards 1400 on the SPX or 13,200 on the Dow wouldn’t stick. So the official bear market call can stay on the shelf for another few weeks until the last gasps of air are gone which should be in April or May.
Tomorrow starts off with the Moon conjunct Saturn so it looks like an early round of profit taking. I don’t foresee a big move tomorrow either way, although I think we’ll likely finish somewhat lower.
I had thought the market was due for a decent rally starting next week, but it seems to have got an early start. We might see a little give back down to 1310/11,900 for the rest of this week, but next week’s rally will take us back in heady territory of the old resistance levels near 1400. I don’t think we’ll quite get all the way back, but it will look impressive.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Queasy Monday
After the Fed’s emergency rate and the shocking Bear Stearns takeover, NY markets bravely fought their way uphill all day finishing pretty much where we thought they would finish — just down about 1%. The planet of trading, Mercury was aspected full of Saturn’s bearish sentiment. The Dow closed up 21 to 11,972 but the broader S&P closed down 11 to 1276. They’ll be no shortage of news tomorrow as Lehman Bros and Merrill Lymch report earnings (they could be the next corporate welfare cases) while the FOMC meets in the afternoon. I don’t see much evidence for a big snapback rally here, but neither do I see a big downdraft either. Sentiment still looks negative, but I’m less convinced of that than I was of today’s trading. I’d say we stand a good chance to lose another 1% although the intraday range will probably be huge. Overall, the week still looks bearish. Friday is a holiday (Good Friday) so everything will come together on Thursday. Right now, it’s looking middling to negative, which is pretty amazing considering we’re in the middle of perhaps the worst financial crisis since WW2.
Tokyo and Bombay were down sharply as the Nikkei closed at 11,787 and the Sensex finished at 14,809. Look for relief rallies there on Tuesday although I wouldn’t expect more than a 2-3% comeback in both.
Oil fell as forecast, as crude slipped $5 to $105. Gold rallied early overseas to $1025 but was caught up in the selling mood in North America and finished marginally higher to $1002. It seems the speculators may now have de-camped from oil and set up shop in gold. Oil will probably fall further (below $100 maybe) and gold will hold firm and likely try for $1010.
The Euro was up a bit closing at $1. 573, again after hitting $1.59 overseas. The Euro will likely go into orbit tomorrow after the Fed cuts rates by likely 1 full percent.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Market Review — week of Mar 10-14
The week finished up as it started — down. Markets were down about 2% as the Dow fell 194 points to 11,951 and the S&P dropped 27 to 1288. For the week, the Dow gained 58 points while the S&P lost 5. My weekly forecast had called for a modest decline so this mostly flat result was a little wide of the mark but still credible as the week did end bearishly. Our call that previous lows would be broken on an intraday basis was also overly bearish as the previous low on the S&P 1270 was tested on Monday (1272) but held firm the rest of the week, especially after Tuesday’s spectacular run up. Monday holds the promise of a Mercury-Saturn opposition.
My bearish forecast better captured the action on the Tokyo and Bombay markets. Tokyo did finish down on the week as forecast to close at 12,241 (Monday open: 12,782) while the Sensex ended the week at 15,760, down modestly from Monday’s open at 15,975. The Nikkei’s intraday low of 12,167 wasn’t far off our forecast for 12,000 and is its lowest level since 2005.
I continue to be correct on the direction of the Euro but still too conservative. I had thought we wouldn’t go beyond $1.55 until next week but alas, we closed at $1.567 as the abandonment of the greenback continues in the face of inflationary bailouts by the Fed.
Oil rode the bull again this week as forecast, and my call for $110 was more or less correct. Oil finished at $110.21, after being as high as $112.
Gold finally reached $1000 on Friday touching as high as $1009, although it closed just under at $999.50. I wasn’t sure we could do it this week but I did think that if we did, it would be on Friday and it was. On the other hand, the lack of a close about $1000 may force us to take Monday more seriously as an historic day on that score.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Euro soars past $1.55
As forecasted on Sunday, the Euro hit a new record of 1.555 today just
as the Sun conjoined its natal Jupiter. Our bullish forecast on the
Euro has been too conservative perhaps and with ongoing concerns about
the US economy it seems that 1.60 may be only weeks rather than months
away. It seems that medium term top may form in May or June. This
rally has much more to go, perhaps to 1.70 or 1.80.
Oil hit $110 today as our bullish forecast had suggested. Tomorrow
looks like the speculative frenzy will continue perhaps as high as
$112-114 with the biggest gains occurring at the NY open. There will
profit taking after that that may take the price back towards $110.
Gold rose today as forecast although we didn’t manage a $10 gain.
Bullion closed at $982 up $8. Tomorrow looks fairly bullish although
gains may be modest. Friday looks better though, as does Monday. It
may put us over the top finally.
NY markets closed moderately lower after yesterday’s big gain. As
forecast yesterday we did see an afternoon sell off with the approach of
the Moon-Saturn square and the Dow closed at 12,110 off 46, and the S&P
finished at 1308 down 11. I think we’re headed down further from here
for the rest of the week with Monday’s lows in the cross hairs. Expect
to see the S&P back around 1280.
Bombay and Tokyo did not fare too well in the wake of the US rally
yesterday. The Sensex was basically unchanged at 16,127 and the Nikkei
closed up 202 at 12,861. Thursday looks mildly bearish so the close may
be under 16k on the BSE while Tokyo will likely experience a significant
decline, possibly down to 12,600 or lower.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Big rally
New York put on a stunning show today in the wake of the emergency infusion of liquidity into the banking system. Stocks rose over 3% as the indexes closed at their previous support levels. The Dow finished at 12,156 and the S&P at 1320. I think the rest of the week looks mostly negative though. Tomorrow may be flat at best, but Thursday looks dicey. Friday may see a slight recovery at the open, but a sell off is likely towards the close. I can see markets finishing not that far from Monday’s open.
Bombay’s Sensex has done fairly well so far this week and is due for an up day tomorrow on the heels of this rally, but I’m not optimistic that the gains will hold by Friday. I think we’ll end up pretty close to the familiar neighbourhood of 16k
Gold held steady around $974, which is not bad considering the enthusiasm for stocks. Tomorrow looks very good, however, so we should see at least a $10 gain. Oil is still going crazy as it passed $108 as investors look for safe havens from inflation. Oil’s gains tomorrow will be modest will price weakening in late afternoon trading.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Market Review — week of March 3-7
Markets did finish the week lower, as we predicted. If anything, sentiment was more bearish than we thought. The American market finished down 1% Friday to finish at the lowest level since 2006. The Dow closed at 11,893 down 146 while the S&P closed at 1293 down 10 points. This was a clear breakdown of support levels, although the technically inclined may note that the Jan 22 intraday lows (11,500/1270) have yet to be breached.
Our Tokyo and Bombay calls were also fairly prescient as the Nikkei closed at 12,783, down 430 points Friday while the Sensex ended the week at 15,975 down 580. Our revised forecast had suggested that the Sensex would close around 16,000 so the skittish mood was borne out.
The bull market in the Euro, oil and gold did continue, although with some divergences from our expectations. The Euro ended the week much stronger than our forecast, closing at 1.5357. Oil closed Friday above $105 without any retracements. Gold did finish off its mid-week highs of $992 to close off a bit at $972.
Oil seems overdue for a pullback, especially since Saturn is aspecting the Moon in the futures chart in the next two weeks.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Gathering Gloom: Markets break below support levels
American markets have closed decisively below important support levels (12150/1320) today as the Dow closed down 214 points at 12,040 and the S&P finished at 1304 down 29 points. These were near the lows of the day and reflect the overall pessimistic mood contained in the Moon-Saturn opposition that perfected near noon. This was in keeping with our negative call yesterday and confirmed the weekly forecast that we would break through these levels this week. There’s one more chance for the indexes to finish higher for the week, but while I can see an up day, I don’t think they’re going to make it back above water.
Bombay closed higher Wednesday at 16,542 for a nice 212 point gain in keeping with our forecast. Friday will be negative on the heels on New York’s bearishness so we likely managed to get that right. It’s very possible that it, too, will breach its support levels of 16,200. Tokyo will likely finish the week below 13,000, perhaps around 12,600.
The Euro continues to its own shock and awe campaign as it finished at 1.5382. While our bullish stance on the Euro has been borne out by recent moves, its day-to-day fluctuations have been harder to peg. I think it will be up further tomorrow. The greenback went below 0.65 for a time today. I am expecting it to decline to 0.60 at some point this year.
Oil rose almost a dollar to finish at 105.44 confounding my expectations. It’s on a relentless roll now and it will continue for the next few weeks at least. The next few days look very bullish so $110 is not out of the question. Gold slumped back $11 to 977 but will climb higher Friday and Monday. Let’s see if it can hit the 4 digit mark.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Commodities rally
Oil and gold hit record highs again today. Crude closed up $4 to $104.75 as the double barreled beneficence of the Moon with Venus transiting the equal 9th house cusp of the futures chart proven to be a very bullish combination. Gold rose $22 to $988. I think tomorrow will be quieter especially given the Moon-Saturn opposition that occurs midday New York time. A small drop (<1%) is likely in prices.. Gold will likely continue rising Friday though and may break through the $1000 barrier as the transiting Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter. If it doesn’t do it Friday, then Monday or Tuesday.
The Euro finished above our forecast range to close at 1.527. Thursday will take it down substantially, back under 1.52 and possibly touching 1.515 intraday. Friday looks like an up day, especially in late afternoon trading (CET) as the transiting Moon approaches the natal Jupiter. I would expect a close above 1.52.
Stocks in New York finished modestly higher as we forecast. The Dow closed at 12,254 up 41 points and the S&P ended the day at 1333 up 6. Tomorrow looks like a down day, although I think we’ll stay above support levels (12150/1320) by the close.
Bombay and Tokyo finished higher yesterday and look poised to continue the upward swing Thursday. The Sensex may reach 16,800. Friday looks quite negative. Look for the BSE to test its support levels of 16,200 at some point in the day. It may break through but will likely finish above it by the close.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Wall St bends but does not break
American markets plumbed the depths of its support levels today but finished above them. The Dow was down as low as 12,032 in the afternoon but climbed to close at 12,213. The S&P likewise fell below the 1320 support level all the way down to 1307 before closing at 1326. I think tomorrow starts lower but may recover by the afternoon. We may finish a little higher.
Bombay and Tokyo have had substantial haircuts so far this week. The Sensex finished Tuesday at 16,339 down more than 1000 points from Monday’s open. Tokyo has proven more resilient to this sell off and held steady in Tuesday trading just under the 13,000 level. The risk is mostly on the downside here going into Thursday.
Oil and gold pulled off their highs and finished sharply lower. This is in keeping with our forecast that the week looked less bullish than last. Gold is the better bet of the two to head higher by the end of the week and next week. The Euro held onto its recent gains and closed at 1.52. It will likely stay within 1.1515 and 1.525 for the next couple days.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Market review — week of Feb 25-29
As predicted, American markets took it on the chin today. Yesterday I thought we were in for a significant decline of 1% or more — we ended up down 2.5%. The Dow finished at 12,266 down 315 points while the S&P closed at 1330 down 37. We’re very close now to support levels so next week will be extra tense since more bad news early on may push the market below the floor. We’ll see what’s in store in my Sunday forecast. As it turns out, I was off in my weekly forecast since we finished down for the week, whereas I thought we would be up a bit but close to Monday’s opening price of 12,381. Still, not far off all things considered.
Asian markets finished down as well, with Tokyo closing at 13,603 and Bombay finishing at 17,578. Both closed higher than our forecast (13,600 and 17,000) but certainly Monday’s action will be negative and more in keeping with our previous expectations.
The Euro closed the week at 1.518, well above our forecast. We were right in calling for an upward trend, however, but underestimated the loss of faith in the US dollar which closed Friday at 0.655. It’s clear that the US dollar may be headed to 0.60 by spring.
Our call for a continued bull markets in oil and gold was also correct, although there, too, we grossly underestimated their strength. Gold ended up another $7 today to close at $975 and oil ended the week down a dollar at 101.66. While both commodities will continue to rise in the coming weeks, I think gold has more upside than oil because of concerns of declining economic activity and corresponding demand reduction.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Dow pulls back
American markets took a breather today, as the Dow closed down 112 to 12,582. That much, at least, we did foresee.
The Euro, oil and gold continued their meteoric rise, however, despite my anticipation to the contrary. All three closed at all-time highs. While I am medium term bullish on all three of these markets, I clearly underestimated the strength that lies within. That strength, of course, is completely rooted the ongoing collapse of the US dollar. With the Sun applying to the natal Jupiter in the gold chart it seems unlikely that we will see a pull back. $1000 is likely next week or the week after as this conjunction perfects while Mercury and Venus apply to the Ascendant. This will be another clue about which gold futures chart is correct by the way. We can watch for when Venus crosses the respective ascendants. The 9.45 am chart has 28 Cap rising which Venus crosses March 6, (this will have the Sun just past the natal Jupiter) and the 10.00 am chart has 4 Aquarius rising which Venus crosses March 11. The Venus conjunction to the ascendant should see a strong rally, regardless if it is past the psychological barrier of $1000. The Sun to Jupiter is also a good indicator of a milestone such as this, so it may well happen in the next 3-4 days. I would bet on March 7 as the most likely day for gold to hit $1000 as the Moon joins the Sun close to Jupiter at 19 Aquarius. I think we’re still at least a couple of months away from the top of the gold market.
Tokyo finished lower at 13,900 while the Sensex showed surprising resilience to remain unchanged at 17,824. Both indices will decline tomorrow taking the lead from NY. I think the BSE is likely to have a tougher go of it, however. Looking ahead, I think the general bias on the BSE is negative for the next few months. There may be short lived rallies that may return to current levels (18k), but look for deeper troughs. March 5th seems to be the beginning of the testing of some recent lows at 16,800. I think we will fall below there in March. April looks similarly negative in sentiment.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Euro climbs higher
Another day, another new high for the Euro, oil and gold as the US dollar continues to plumb the depths in anticipation of further rate cuts from the Fed.
New York markets finished flat as the Dow inched up just 9 pts and the S&P closed down 1. This is in keeping with the middling sentiment I expressed in yesterday’s forecast. The market caution I had forecast finally arrived in Bombay as the Sensex finished down, albeit only marginally. I missed on Tokyo as it stayed mostly positive finishing just above 14,000. I believe the fears over the US recession will hit these markets tomorrow more forcefully.
Oil did hit $102 as predicted, although it quickly fell back to $99. I am expecting further declines tomorrow.
Gold powered ever higher to finish at $958 up $10. I missed this move but I still feel that gold is due to fall back to earth Thursday and Friday.
The Euro soared past 1.51, closing at 1.5122. A stunning run that no doubt owes a lot to the Mercury-Venus conjunction activating the natal Uranus in the Euro natal chart. It’s past exact now, so I think the rally will run out of steam tomorrow and likely into Friday. I’m expecting the sell-off to be sharp Thursday, possibly taking us back under 1.50 at least temporarily.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
US dollar hits all-time low
American markets rallied again today as the Dow finished up 114 pts to 12,684 and the S$P added 9 to 1381. I had thought sentiment would turn negative today so our outlook missed the mark. Tomorrow will probably start strong but it may finish under water. I am not taking a firm stand either way, however.
Tokyo finished lower by 90 points to close at 13,824 as Monday’s rally didn’t hold while the BSE found some momentum and managed to add 156 to 17,806. These markets are vulnerable to declines Wednesday.
The big news of the day was the all-time low for the greenback at 0.6677 and the Euro hitting 1.50 for the first time. This is in keeping with our bullish forecast for the Euro. I expect it to go higher the rest of the week and linger at or above 1.50, although some retracements are likely.
Oil hit $100.88, also a new all-time high and is higher in Asia in Wednesday morning trading. It will probably move decisively towards $102.
Gold rallied as predicted hitting $948 in New York trading and is now moving towards $955 overseas. I think one more up day is possible (but not bankable), after which expect some serious consolidation, perhaps down below $930.
Monday, February 25, 2008
A bullish Monday
World markets were up across the board Monday, more or less in keeping with our forecast for a bullish opening to the week. The Dow closed 189 pts higher at 12,570 while the S&P finished up 18 pts at 1371. Bombay and Tokyo were also up significantly in keeping with the forecast. Tokyo has opened Tuesday trading above 14,000 on the Nikkei for the first time in several weeks. The Sensex closed at 17,650 up 301 points.
Oil climbed to over $99 while gold pulled back to $938. Gold failed to rally as forecast, so tomorrow looks like a better candidate to pass $950.
The Euro held its own today closing at 1.483 against the dollar. Our prediction of a midday sell-off largely came true as the Euro declined starting after 11.00 CET and tested the 1.48 level over the next couple hours.
While Asian markets may eke out another up day Tuesday, I think the American markets will be mixed at best and likely headed lower by the end of trading.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Market Review — week of Feb 18-22
After Friday’s jaw-dropping 200 pt rally at 3.15 in New York, the
markets finished up for the day and up slightly for the week as well.
Yesterday, I thought the markets would not escape another negative day
but buyers came in at the close as the indices bounce off their support
levels yet again. The Dow finished at 12,381, up just 33 points for the
week while the S&P ended up at 1353, up just 4 points. While I can’t be
proud of my intraday week daily forecasts, I can at least claim (just
barely) that our weekly outlook was correct again as the markets closed
higher although missing our target of 12,500/1360. We did test the
upper reaches of the support level (12,150/1330) through Friday’s
trading but never fell through.
Tokyo finished the week down 1% as the Nikkei closed at 13,500 on the
nose. Again, my intraweek dynamics were not very accurate as Wednesday
was the worst day with the market closing at 13,300. Our forecast
called for a slight upweek came up short as well, so all in all, nothing
to write home about. Fortunately, I was less than enthusiastic about
the prospects so in the end we were not that divergent from the market’s
final performance.
Bombay was down 4% for the week and finished at 17,349. The big down
days were Wednesday and Friday. Here I underestimated the negative
impact of the lunar eclipse and also placed too much positive value on
the approaching Venus-Mercury conjunction that will occur over the
weekend.
The Euro was our shining success story for the week as it finished
strong, closing at 1.4825 USD. Our intraweek revised forecast correctly
called the high on Friday, with the Euro touching 1.485. We had thought
1.48 was likely and 1.49 was possible, so that is well within range.
We also correctly forecast Monday as the big down day and Wednesday
afternoon as another decline.
We called gold’s big run-up this week more or less on the money as gold
futures closed Friday at $944, up over $40. Monday was weak and prices
stagnated near $900. The rally really got going after that and our
price target of $920 was easily achieved. Our intraweek revised
forecast correctly called the Friday close between $940 and $950.
Our forecast for oil’s rise was also correct, as crude futures got to
$101.32 Wednesday before settling back to under $99 on Friday. Our
daily forecasts still need some work however as we thought Wednesday
would be a down day. Next week should see $100 again if only temporarily.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Lunar Eclipse Blues
The American markets decline over 1% today on weak manufacturing news. It seems the eclipse had more of a negative impact that I had forecast. The proximity of Saturn obviously did nothing to boost investor confidence, and I am thinking that we will start to see some serious intraday testing of the 12,000 support on the Dow and 1320 on the S&P. The other part of the story Thursday was the perfection of the Venus to natal Rahu aspect which I had hoped would propel us higher, although I was not at all confident of this outcome. It turned out that Venus in debilitation in Virgo falling under the aspect of Rahu was simply too much to bear, especially with the Moon-Saturn conjunction thrown in for good measure. I am not optimistic for Friday, nor Monday for that matter. I think we will likely break down through the key support now, even if there will be a recovery by March 3. I will reassess the next week’s prospects after reviewing Friday’s trading. I was a bit squeamish about my overall up prediction this week and now I know why.
The BSE limped through Thursday as the early rally went nowhere and the SENSEX finally at 17, 734. It will be a brutal opening in Bombay Friday but the market may climb back part way near the close as the Moon enters Virgo but it will still finish deep in the red.
While oil pulled back under $99 the new April contract, gold continued its move upwards, as it briefly touched $955 before settling back to $945. Profit taking in gold is likely tomorrow as we have predicted. Oil still looks poised to go higher, although the bigger moves will probably occur Monday and Tuesday.
The Euro finally took that bold rise we had forecast as it broke through 1.48 as high as 1.483. The US dollar slumped to 0.6755. The Euro is down in after hours trading and this down trend will continue through tomorrow at least until noon CET. Look for a small Euro rally after American markets open which may push it back up towards 1.48.
Today’s drop is a good reminder that this market isn’t a safe place for medium or long term investors. Whatever rallies we may get in the next few weeks, there isn’t enough upside potential to risk getting sideswiped by sudden plunges when the full extent of the fallout of the credit crunch becomes known. I would be very cautious about taking any significant long positions in stocks right now.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
NY rally right on time
A very nice rally in New York today right on schedule at noon as the market shook off an almost 100 point morning loss and went straight up from there. The Dow finished up 90 pts at 12,427 while S&P closed up 11 at 1360. As I forecasted on Sunday, the midday Wednesday rally would correspond with the transiting Moon in partile11th house aspect with the natal Jupiter of the NYSE chart while no other negative planetary influences were present. We’ll probably start Thursday lower but I’m cautiously bullish for the rest of the week, but it might be a good idea to sell into any rallies Thursday or Friday. In a perfect world, we might see the Dow try for the 12,750 resistance level. 1370 on the S&P seems like a foregone conclusion.
Bombay closed lower Wednesday but will certainly find ample fuel for an upturn on the heels of the New York’s bullish performance.
As I thought, gold powered upwards to $940 Wednesday. The only question is: how high will it go this week? This is an explosive market right now, so $950-960 is now possible. Again, I would try to take profits late Thursday or early Friday since it seems like there will be a pullback then.
Oil hit a new all-time high Wednesday, topping out at 101.30 intraday before settling back under $100 for the April futures contract. Oil will go higher still.
The Euro has not performed as expected, however. It didn’t build on Tuesday’s gains and fell back a bit to 1.4713. Thursday may be difficult especially in the early going (CET) as the Moon joins Saturn in the Euro’s 12th house, so it may slip under 1.47. I’m still looking for decent gains Friday to put back over 1.47 and then some as the Moon finds the shining light of Jupiter.
Tuesday, Feburary 19, 2008
Oil and Gold rise
Oil closed over $100 today for the first time. This exceeded my expectations in terms of price and timing, but at least I got the direction right. Look for prices to continue to climb into the weekend. We could see $105 or even $110.
The NYSE rally couldn’t hold today, despite being up for much of the day. I am looking for a more reliable rally tomorrow.
Similarly, gold had a big day as it closed up $24 finishing in NY at $928. I was too conservative and late in my prediction for a rally. The rest of the week looks strong, possibly going as high as $940-$950. Friday will see a decline.
We correctly called the decline in the BSE SENSEX Tuesday afternoon as the gains in the a.m. were lost. We’ve also been spot on in regards to the tentativeness of the market so far this week which has been essentially flat at both closes. We’re sticking to our call for some significant rallies for the rest of the week.
And as predicted, Monday was tough for the Euro, as it touched 1.462 intraday. Tuesday it did come back very strong, finishing at 1.473. The US dollar is sitting at 0.678 now. The Euro almost certainly rise the rest of the week. 1.48 is probable, and even 1.49 is possible.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Market Review — week of Feb 11-15
All in all, the markets mostly went our way this week. I had forecast and up week in NY and the Dow rose from 12,181 to 12,384 and the S&P from 1331 to 1349. While I got the Monday afternoon rally right, I was mostly off on the intraweek action. I had thought a rally was due late Wednesday and Thursday when it fact it had already hit the weekly highs by then. We did, however, manage to reach our forecast highs above 12,500 and 1360 for an extended period midweek. I am also pleased that the markets rallied as predicted through the afternoon and at the close on Friday. I had hoped this would put them in the green for the day but the Dow finished slightly just short while the S&P was up a single point.
Tokyo also largely followed our game plan as it finished up on the week rising from 13,000 on the NIKKEI to finish at 13,622. Our forecast was also correct on the intraweek trends as the markets were flat Monday and Tuesday and then rose at the end of the week. Our target had been 13,500 for the week so that Friday close was quite a nice call.
Bombay followed this same pattern and we hit the brutal Monday selloff right on the money. The SENSEX bottomed out at 16,500 Monday and Tuesday and then came back strongly at the end of the week to finish at 18,115. My main disappointment here for me was missing the Friday rally of 348 pts as I had predicted a down day. Overall though, the weekly market direction fell within our margin of error.
The Euro had its best week in many months as it peaked at the close Friday at 1.4685 as the US dollar approached the psychological 0.68 support level. While I was correct in forecasting an up week for the Euro, I underestimated its strength. Happily, my revised forecast on Tuesday did correctly predict a testing of the 0.68 level.
I was also largely correct on Gold this week as it fell back towards the end of the week, closing Friday at $901. I had forecast that it could test the $900 level with the Mercury Ketu aspect at the end of the week which is precisely what happened. I mistakenly forecast an up day Monday, however, which turned out to be a barely noticeable $4 gain during early trading after which the price fell. Generally, though, I was pleased with my forecast in terms of market direction and the particulars of intraweek action.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
A bucket of cold water
Tough day on the American markets today as the Dow lost 175 points to finish at 12,376 while the S&P closed lower at 1348. Bernanke reminded us that we can’t simply will the indexes higher if the economy is going into the dumper. So we’re still within that narrow trading range (1320-1360) that we outlined in the weekly outlook. Tomorrow we should end the week on a winning note as the Moon floats through the NYSE 11th house of gains with a rally at the close. Also look for a nice rally right at noon.
Bombay will be down as it digests the negative news from the US markets negative Thursday performance. The opening should be pretty grim but watch for a rally to emerge by 11.45 am and continue through the noon hour. A retracement down at 2.00 pm is possible with a nice closing rally after 3.15 pm. (all times local)
As predicted the Euro is having a good week against the US dollar finishing Thursday at 1.4635. Friday is probably going to be less, if any, upside for the Euro, so I think the greenback will hold above the 0.68 level.
The week has gone as expected with gold giving back a lot of last week’s gains finishing at $913. Friday looks pretty negative especially from Asian and European trading. When NY opens, the price may recover somewhat in the afternoon but going under $900 is very possible in the morning.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Onward and upward
Some solid 1% gains on the American markets today. The Dow finished at 12,373 and the S&P at 1348. So far, so good.
Bombay finished unchanged, a welcome stabilization of prices after Monday’s selloff. This sets up what should be a good day on Wednesday that ought to fulfill our forecast. Gold was down $15 to $911 in the wake of the Venus conjunction to natal Venus. Our forecast has gold finishing below Monday’s open, so that negative trend should hold.
The Euro was up slightly on Tuesday. I’m looking for bigger gains starting tomorrow as the US dollar will likely fall back to 0.68 or below.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Steady as she goes
American markets ended modestly higher today, more or less in keeping with our forecast. The Dow closed at 12, 240 and the S&P at 1339. The late day rally I forecast was barely noticeable.
Bombay was sharply lower as forecast, as the Sensex dropped 700 pts to 16,630. The Euro was flat against our prediction, holding on to 1.45 and gold was modestly higher by $4. This was less than forecast but at least the direction was correct. The price has stabilized in after hours trading at around $922. Let’s see if gold can rally Tuesday as it unleashed that positive Venus to Venus energy.
Tokyo was closed Monday.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Markets end week quietly
Well not much action on American markets today as the major indices sank on the open and stayed in the red through the day, ending down 0.5%. The end of the day rally I forecast was fairly tepid but at least pulled the markets off their mid-day lows. The Dow finished at 12,182 and the S&P at 1331.
This is basically in line with my weekly forecast which called for a down week which it was — major indices were down about 4%. On Sunday, I had forecast the Dow ending the week at 12,200-12,400 and the S&P at 1320-1340.
Tokyo followed the NY lead and went lower, against my prediction for gently higher prices. That one counts as an out and out miss.
My call on the bearish direction of the Euro was essentially correct although it sold off more sharply than I expected. It ended up at $1.45
On gold, I was overly bearish but at least got the intraweek trends right as the Friday rally pushed it back to $922. The fact that gold can still shake off some bad transits and end the week higher than it started is a sign we’re still in a bull market for gold. The only question is: for how much longer?
The American markets finished modestly up on the day with the Dow at 12 267 and the S&P at 1336. This was a little better than I thought they would do, although the basic pattern to the price action was as expected : down in the morning by more than 1% and recovering in the afternoon. As it turned out, the markets were only in negative territory for an hour or so, so the day ended more bullish.
This is a clue that Venus transiting over the 6th house of the NYSE chart is more resilient than I had anticipated. This is perhaps due to the alignment of Sun, Venus, and Uranus at around 23-24 degrees of their respective signs. Still, a negative opening is possible as the Moon opposes Saturn. The market should recover after that. The close looks pretty strong as Moon and Jupiter enter into a closer sextile. The wild card here is the Sun as it crosses the Descendant applying to conjoin Neptune, which is likely a bearish influence. I don’t think this will be sufficiently malefic to force the markets into the red. So overall, it should be an up day.
Just as we thought, that Moon-Jupiter alignment kept prices buoyant in the morning, but the NY markets took on water in the afternoon, finishing about 0.5% down. Support levels held at 12,2000 on the Dow and 1340 on the S&P.
Tomorrow the Sun lines up exactly opposite the natal Uranus suggesting more volatility and heavy volume. The solar eclipse puts an exclamation point there. I think much of the negativity connected with that aspect may have spent itself on Monday however. Still with Venus approaching the equal 6th house cusp, I would think a weak opening is likely with >1% decline possible. The afternoon, however, should see a rally that gets us almost back to where we started.
Let’s see if the markets can get through the week without falling through 12K/1320.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
American markets drop 3%
Tough day on American markets Tuesday. But pretty much as forecast, although the decline may have been a day earlier than I thought. Mercury opposite the NYSE Uranus is definitely part of the immediate problem.
The Moon is semisextile to Jupiter tomorrow morning EST so that ought to give a boost to markets. I seriously doubt if any gains will hold through the afternoon however. Huge volatility as Sun applies to oppose Uranus as well. I would expect intraday lows well below Dow 12,200/ SPX 1320 (perhaps 12,000). No certainties on the close, but a Dow below 12,200 is very possible.
Transiting Mercury is key here since the chart is running Sat-Sun-Mer dasha. It will switch over to Sa-Su-Ke on Feb 11 according to the Krishnamurti ayanamsha. Ketu subsubperiod begins in another three weeks according to Lahiri.
