Week of April 13 – 17 v. 2/15

After slipping back early in the week, stocks in New York recovered with Thursday’s big 4% up move as the rally remained intact.  The Dow ended the week at 8083 and the S&P at 856.   This extension of the rally was frustrating given my bearish outlook for last week.  Clearly the bulls are in charge, at least in the short term, as this bear market rally evolves into something more durable.   As disappointing as last week was, there was a semblance of a silver lining.  The early week was clearly negative and that was in keeping with expectations of the Mars-Saturn aspect and potentially disruptive effects of Uranus’ entry into Pisces.  But the declines were more modest (3-4%) than expected as the key support levels in this upward price channel held firm.  The Dow only briefly managed to venture down below 7800.  Moreover, Thursday’s bullishness was correctly forecast as the multiple alignment of Sun-Mars-Jupiter came into play. My mistake here was thinking that the negative days would outweigh the positive.  This is more evidence perhaps that we’re in a bull leg within a larger bear market, since normally malefic influences are being offset by benefic factors.

At the risk of sounding repetitive, this week also looks bearish, although given the recent tenacity of the bulls, we need to be aware of possible snap back rallies that may again occur late in the week.  While the Uranus ingress into Pisces did not produce much of anything, there may be another opportunity for its energies to be expressed.  On Wednesday, malefic Mars will conjoin Uranus in the first degree of Pisces, so this is another potential triggering factor for Uranus, and indeed for the larger Mars-Saturn-Uranus alignment.  The effects may be felt as soon as Monday, however, as the Moon will be debilitated in Scorpio and will therefore form a t-square with Saturn and Mars.  The total energy available for Monday gets an additional boost by the ingress of the Sun into Aries, its sign of exaltation.  With Mars entering Pisces on Tuesday and then conjoining Uranus the following day, there is a potential for another move down.   The resiliency of this bull run should caution us against expecting too much on the down side, so we may only once again move to the bottom of the current upward price channel, possibly around 7700/810.   That said, I would not rule out a larger decline here.  There is a chance for some bounce back at the end of the week as Mercury will trine Saturn on Friday.  However, this is much less promising than last Thursday’s alignment since the Moon is with Rahu.  My sense is any bounce will be smaller than what we saw Thursday so that we should end the week below current levels. 

The markets have advanced a long way in a hurry so it’s entirely predictable that some kind of retracement is likely over the coming weeks. The planets confirm this view as we will likely see choppier trading in the next few weeks as Saturn moves into the 22nd degree of Leo, which is where it will finally station on May 16.  Interestingly, this is the same degree it was in at the beginning of the market meltdown in late September and early October.  Of course, we can’t make too much of this, since other planets have moved from their positions and astrology is ultimately about the interrelationship of planetary positions, if nothing else.  But Saturn’s return to the same place as the October decline still means that it will be activating any significant points at 21-22 Leo in the relevant natal charts of the various exchanges and stock indexes around the world.   I believe this will make it difficult for stocks to rise much further above current levels and it will also increase the likelihood of greater pullbacks.  Another interesting development will occur April 17 when Venus ends its retrograde cycle and returns to direct forward motion.  Given that the rally began very soon after Venus began its retrograde cycle on March 6, the culmination of this cycle is another possible sign that we are entering a new market phase.

More immediately, if we do finally see some decline this week, next week may be more positive, particularly between April 22-24.  April 27-28 looks negative given the Mars-Ketu-Pluto aspect so that may take us down again, but by May 1 or May 4, another big up day is possible as Venus aspects both Ketu and Pluto.  Perhaps a more significant bearish signal will be the approaching Mercury retrograde period which begins May 7 and lasts until May 31.  In keeping with its symbolism, a backwards Mercury is often implicated in retracement moves, and here it is more likely to be a negative influence because it will begin its retrograde cycle under the aspect of shadowy Rahu.  A similar Mercury retrograde-Rahu aspect occurred in late May 2008 and was correlated with the decline that lasted through June and part of July.  Overall, I think a retracement down to 7200-7500/750-780 is very possible over the next several weeks before we move higher into the summer. 

In keeping with expectations, the dollar rose last week closing near 86 although much of the gain was at the expense of the Euro. The Sun transit to the natal ascendant did prove helpful as it turned out, as the Mars-Saturn opposition in hard aspect to the ascendant did not cause any significant weakening. We could be on the verge of a big move up in the dollar this week or next as Venus will station exactly on the part of fortune/punya saham in the natal chart and will closely trine the Sun-Saturn conjunction in the first house. This may produce a move close to its March highs near 89. Friday may be the worst day for the dollar as the Mercury-Saturn trine will activate the malefic 6th house cusp.

The Euro fell back last week under 1.32 on economic and banking fears. The Euro looks like it will continue to weaken here as the Sun’s entry into Aries will soon produce a negative conjunction with natal Saturn. The Mars-Uranus conjunction on the natal Jupiter also foretells a lot of energy this week, but it seems uncontrollable rather than effervescent. As Jupiter moves to conjoins the natal Ketu in the Euro chart in the next couple of weeks, I think we could see it fall back under 1.30 and indeed, go all the way back to 1.25. That would be an extreme result, but it is within the realm of possibility. The Indian Rupee stubbornly held onto recent gains last week as it closed below 50 for the second straight week. Although buoyed by the recent rally in stocks in Mumbai, it seems unlikely that it will withstand the flight to the dollar this week.

After slipping under $50 early last week, crude mounted an explosive rally Thursday which took it back to its current resistance levels of $54. Crude did in fact trade briefly below $48 as expected on the Mercury-Mars conjunction, but Thursday’s rally was surprising. Certainly, I anticipated some late week gains on the Sun-Mars-Jupiter alignment, but I thought it would not return to last week’s highs. Once again, the extent of bullish sentiment for crude (and stocks) has caught me off guard. The approach of Jupiter’s aspect to the ascendant in the Futures chart is one important source of renewed confidence in oil prices.

This week looks negative for the most part as the Sun will conjoin the natal Mars in early Aries. The early part of the week may see more strength, as Monday’s Moon will contact the natal Jupiter. At the same time, Mars will conjoin the Mercury in the ETF chart, so that’s a wash at best. It’s probably not enough of an influence to push prices much higher, but at least it may prevent a larger drop. Later in the week looks weaker as Mars moves nearer to stationary Venus in early Pisces. This conjunction will form a square with the Ketu/Neptune aspect in the Futures chart. This aspect will be closest on Friday and next Monday the 20th and will likely correspond with a significant price move. Given the presence of Mars, it seems most likely that this move will be down. I think by next Monday, crude will be below $48. There’s probably support around $40, so that may be the next stop over the coming two or three weeks. Before we get there, some gains are likely towards the end of next week which may move up crude 10%.