(4 October 2026) Stocks were mixed last week as the weak jobs report took the pressure off bond yields as prospects for a second Fed rate hike diminished. While the NASDAQ was higher on the week, the S&P 500 finished fractionally lower and the Dow and broader averages fell for the fourth straight week. The deteriorating breadth story continues to dominate the news as market indexes are being held up by a few big names while the most stocks are now below their 200-day moving average.
This mixed outcome may have reflected the range of influences last week. While the Venus retrograde station (exact Saturday Oct 3) carries a small but discernible negative influence, other alignments may have served to offset more bearish scenarios. Based on a 85-year backtest of 16 previous cases, the ongoing heliocentric tertiary progressed alignment of Mercury and Venus in the NYSE chart is a more bullish influence. The updated cumulative trend chart below shows that the S&P 500 (SPX) is loosely tracking the historical mean and median of this alignment, even if the Dow (DJIA) is still underperforming. Further upside is possible from this pattern, although the mean and median tend to flatten out as we approach the end of the test period on Oct 12. Nonetheless, this progressed alignment is one reason why some stocks are defying gravity.
The geocentric and heliocentric Jupiter-Saturn trines also should be considered a neutral-to-positive influences here. With the geocentric alignment exact Aug 31, the post-alignment period tends to be more bullish as seen in the updated cumulative chart below. The SPX line is well above the historical mean, however, and does not necessarily imply further outperformance going forward. And with the approach of the end of the test period, this alignment will drop off from consideration.
The heliocentric Jupiter-Saturn trine was exact Sep 23 and is still generally supportive of prices. While the alignment may argue for a bullish mean reversion of the Dow in the coming days to tag the mean and median, this influence starts to introduce some downside risk later in October and into November.
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