(12 October 2025) Stocks fell sharply last week as the simmering trade war between the US and China was suddenly reignited following Trump’s latest threat to raise tariffs by 100%. Stocks and crypto suffered the biggest losses, although precious metals and bonds gained amid the sell-off in risk assets The decline coincided closely with the dual Venus affliction noted in last week’s post as it entered sidereal Virgo (=bearish) on Wednesday Oct 8 and formed a tense opposition aspect with Saturn on Saturday, Oct 11 — just one day after Friday’s bloodbath.
Financial markets have been rudely awakened from their state of extended complacency. While some kind of pullback was long overdue, some observers are wondering if the current bull market may now be over. I don’t have a strong opinion either way on that question, although the bearish case does not seem compelling given the absence of any apparently negative alignments among slower-moving planets. However, the approaching Jupiter-Saturn trine aspect in November and December deserves closer scrutiny in that respect. But let’s leave that for another time.
The more pressing question concerns the extent of the current pullback. The planets this week upcoming would seem to argue for more volatility in the days ahead. Not only is Venus still transiting Virgo, its sign of debilitation, but there will be a conjunction of Mercury and Mars next Monday, October 20. This pairing combines benefic Mercury with malefic Mars and could elevate downside risk. Since Mercury is considered the planet of commerce and trading, its alignments with malefics like Mars and Saturn are commonly associated with down moves, even if they are usually very brief. The influence of Mars is believed to increase anxiety and frustration which can translate into quick declines as traders may be more likely to pre-emptively hit the sell button. But how much of this astrological belief is actually grounded in empirical reality?
Method
To answer this question, I compiled a dataset of the last 54 Mercury-Mars conjunctions from 1991 to 2024. If the Mercury-Mars conjunction really had a negative effect on stocks, it should show up in the price trends, especially in the days immediately before and after the exact conjunction. In order to evaluate these price fluctuations, I recorded closing prices on the S&P 500 at 3-day intervals starting at 15 days before the conjunction until 15 days after the conjunction. If the bearish thesis is true, prices should tend to decline around the time of the conjunction and rebound higher in the days afterwards.
The price change between different intervals were recorded and their averages and medians were calculated using Excel. Further, the standard deviation was also calculated in order to determine the consistency and reliability of the results. Using the conventional statistical threshold of 0.05, p-values were also calculated to establish possible statistical significance. A p-value of less than 0.05 is said to satisfy that significance threshold as it indicates there is a greater than 95% chance that the result was not due to chance.
Another consideration in this study is the possible effect of planetary direction on stock prices. Mercury moves faster than Mars and thus it will catch up and ‘lap’ Mars every two years or so. Both Mercury and Mars usually move forwards in the sky as seen from our vantage point on Earth, but there are times when they are retrograde. Mercury in particular is often retrograde as it appears to move backwards in the sky about 20% of the time. Its frequent retrograde cycles therefore create a unique pattern whereby its conjunctions with Mars come in clusters of three (or occasionally five) distinct conjunctions during a relatively short six-month span. The subsequent cluster of conjunctions then occurs about 18 months later where the retrograde dance of Mercury and Mars takes place once again.
The first conjunction in the cluster occurs when both planets are in normal direct motion, while the second conjunction occurs when Mercury is retrograde. The third conjunction in the cluster occurs when both Mercury and Mars are direct once again. For the less common five-conjunction clusters, the fourth conjunction typically has Mercury retrograde once again with the fifth and final conjunction having both planets returning to normal direct, forward motion. Interestingly, Mars was never retrograde for any of the conjunctions in the test sample.
In light of this clustering phenomenon, I decided to number each conjunction in the cluster so that the conjunctions could be analyzed separately. Thus, the first conjunction occurs when both planets are in direct motion (“MeD MaD 1”) may have different effects from the second conjunction when Mercury is retrograde and Mars is direct (“MeR MaD 2”). The third conjunction is labeled with both planets in direct motion (“MeD MaD 3”) and so on. The table of price intervals and numbered conjunctions are shown in the table below.
Results
The results across various intervals are shown in the summary statistics table below. Overall, they seem unremarkable. The longest 30-day window (“-15d 15d”) had an average of 0.69% which was right in line with the expected value of 0.67%. The expected values were pro-rated based on an average annual return of 8.1% for the years 1991 to 2024. The median was quite a bit larger at 1.32% and hinted at a possible bullish bias across the longer interval. Only one interval had a negative average, the second column (“-15d 0d”) which shows the average change in the 15 days prior to the conjunction. But all the other intervals were positive and many exceeded the expected values. None reached statistical significance. If there is a pattern here, it is perhaps that the time leading up to the conjunction is a bit less bullish than the time afterwards.
Overall, we could say there is a tiny bearish bias in the days leading up to the conjunction as shown in the cumulative trend chart below. The problem here is that the negative bias is not confirmed by the median trend line which more or less follows the expected line. Perhaps not surprisingly, these cumulative results also did not reach statistical significance. We should conclude that this bearish belief about the Mercury-Mars conjunction finds only very limited support in this study. Or so it would seem.
The 1st conjunction: bearish as advertised
However, if we separate the dataset into similarly numbered conjunctions, a somewhat different picture emerges. The cumulative trend effects of all first conjunctions are grouped together in the summary statistics table below. The resulting sample contains 17 cases in which both Mercury and Mars are in direct forward motion. As with the aggregate table (n=54), there are no statistically significance results, except for the anomalous bullish result in the first column (“-12d”) which may only be a statistical artifact of an abbreviated 3-day pre-conjunction period.
What we also notice is that there are more negative averages and medians in the results. This first conjunction sample is clearly more bearish than the larger aggregate sample of all conjunctions. This is more clearly seen in the cumulative trend chart shown below. The average makes its low 3 days before the conjunction (“-3d”) while the median makes its low 3 days after the conjunction (“3d”). Admittedly, this is not a huge effect (-0.68% and -0.52%, respectively) and none of the results reach the significance threshold of 0.05.
But it is fair to say that the first Mercury-Mars conjunction seems more bearish than the aggregate of all conjunctions analyzed above. And that is potentially important because the upcoming Mercury-Mars conjunction on Monday, October 20 will be the first conjunction out of 5 eventual conjunctions that will occur over the next 6 months. The second conjunction with Mercury retrograde is due to take place on Nov 12, the third conjunction with both planets in direct motion on Jan 18, 2026, the fourth conjunction with Mercury again retrograde on March 15. The fifth and final conjunction in this cluster will take place on April 20 with both planets again in direct motion.
The 2nd conjunction: a weaker version
For the sake of comparison, let’s look at the result of the second conjunction in which Mercury is retrograde or station and Mars is direct. On the face of it, we might think that any conjunction involving retrograde Mercury would be bearish since backwards motion carries a negative connotation in the eyes of many astrologers. And yet the results do not support this view. From this sample of 18 cases, there is an average low 6 days formed before the conjunction (“-6d”) but the median does not participate in the bearish divergence from the expected value line. Moreover, both the average and the medians rise in the days after the conjunction, with the median looking decidedly bullish 15 days after the conjunction. Needless to say, none of these results were statistically significant. The second conjunction is therefore not very bearish at all. For the record, the second Mercury-Mars conjunction in the current sequence is due on November 12.
The 3rd conjunction: more bullish than bearish
The chart below suggests the 3rd conjunction in the sequence is actually bullish. In fact, there was one statistically significance result at 12 days after the conjunction and two results that came close and earned an asterisk on the “No.” This 3rd conjunction is positive for stocks at the time of the exact conjunction (“0d”) and then gets even more bullish as time goes on. The next 3rd conjunction will take place on Jan 18, 2026.
Implications for this week
While the evidence is fairly limited, there is some reason for continued caution this week. The first Mercury-Mars conjunction has a modest bearish bias which tends to manifest most strongly between 3 days before the conjunction to 3 days after. This would translate into an interim low occurring between Oct 17 and Oct 23. Of course, the lack of statistical significance in any of the results is a red flag. But given on the ongoing transit of Venus in Virgo, the bearish bias of the first Mercury-Mars conjunction suggests some unstable sentiment which could diminish the likelihood of a reliable snap back rally. At very least, it could make investors more skeptical about any rallies this week as further downside may be forthcoming due to this Oct 20 conjunction.
Other factors may also play a role this week. The approaching Mercury-Mars conjunction will form a 120-degree trine alignment with the North Lunar Node (aka Rahu) late in the week. This may be another source of volatility as the lunar nodes carry a potential for disruption. The Mars-NN alignment is closest on Saturday, Oct 18 and the Mercury-NN alignment is exact on Sunday, Oct 19.
To complicate matters, Jupiter enters sidereal Aries on Friday, Oct 17 on the same day that the Sun enters sidereal Libra. On the face of it, these may be bullish influences although their resulting 90-degree square alignment may result in excess optimism that carries negative consequences. However, in the absence of any solid data either way on this Sun-Jupiter pairing, we should keep an open mind about its implications.
We should also note that Pluto stations direct on Monday October 13. Outer planetary stations — both direct and retrograde — can sometimes be turning points in larger trends. This isn’t always the case, of course, but it nonetheless noteworthy. In turning direct on Monday, Pluto will therefore begin to separate from its ongoing alignment with Uranus and Neptune. This three-planet alignment has arguably been one reason for the sustained rally in recent months. The effect of its separation is worth monitoring, although it may not have any immediate manifestations.
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Disclaimer: Not intended as investment advice. For educational purposes only.
