Understanding the Covid stock market recovery

(9 June 2020) Looking at the stock market, it's hard to believe we are even in a recession with double-digit unemployment.  And yet the last two months has seen the stock market stage a remarkable recovery following the initial pandemic shock .  After crashing more than 30% in March due to the coronavirus lockdowns, US stocks have rallied strongly with the major indexes regaining 75% of their previous losses.  Certainly, the actions of the Federal Reserve have been pivotal as trillions of dollars of QE asset purchases and overnight repos have pushed money into the higher risk assets such as the stock market. 

With the number of Covid cases now sharply falling in many countries around the world, there is legitimate hope that the worst could be over and life and the economy can return to normal.  To be sure, this is still very much a glass half-full view since a second wave of infections is still very possible.  And even if there is no second wave, it is unclear when suppression measures like social distancing and mask-wearing can end.   But can the economy and the stock market fully regain their previous levels if the virus remains a threat?

An astrological analysis provides another perspective on these questions.  While the recent gyrations of the stock market can be seen through various planetary phenomena, it is useful to look at the horoscope of the New York Stock Exchange (May 17, 1792).  The huge sell-off saw a major low in stocks on March 23.  This low coincided with a bearish conjunction of Mars and Pluto, two malefic planets symbolizing tension and anxiety.   At that time, Saturn, the most bearish planet, formed a close 120 degree angle with the Sun at 6 Taurus.  Moreover, Saturn was just one degree from its retrograde station in May, hence it had a magnified effect on the Sun in the NYSE chart. 


At the same time, Jupiter (29 Sagittarius) was approaching its bullish conjunction with Pluto (0 Capricorn).  This was a hint that a recovery was on the way.  But more important was that both these planets were moving towards a 120 angle with natal Mercury (2 Taurus) in the NYSE.  Jupiter-Mercury aspects are usually quite bullish.  This was another clue that a significant recovery would be forthcoming following the March low. 

So while the bearish Saturn influence waned as it moved past its exact aspect with the Sun, the bullish Jupiter influence grew as it aligned very closely with natal Mercury.  Jupiter then stationed retrograde in mid-May at 3 Capricorn.  Over the past four weeks it has again formed a close 120 degree aspect with Mercury.  Currently, it sits at 2 Capricorn and thus the positive 120 angle is still in effect as the market is at post-Covid highs.

However, over the next week, Jupiter will move to 1 Capricorn which will put it past its exact alignment with Mercury.  As a rule of thumb, alignments that have moved past exact tend to be weaker.  This suggests that the bullish energy in the NYSE chart is more likely to diminish in the coming days. 

In addition, retrograde Saturn will move back to 6 Capricorn and thus will re-create its exact bearish angle with the Sun.  So that could be a double whammy for market sentiment.  Less bullish Jupiter and more bearish Saturn. 

Overall, it suggests that the market is ripe for some kind of pullback in the next few weeks.

Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have continued to be generally strong in recent days, despite last Friday's difficult lunar eclipse. This week has been less positive, as today's session saw some significant selling. 

I would expect more downside this week, especially after Wednesday's Fed meeting.  The key alignment is the Mars-Neptune conjunction.  This sets up directly opposite the natal Mars in the NYSE chart.  Friday's Mars-Neptune alignment with the Moon seems more vulnerable to declines in that respect. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

These forecasts are usually posted weekly. 
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