The state of the race: Biden in front

(14 July 2020) As this strange and difficult year continues to unfold, attention is invariably shifting towards the US presidential election in November.  Republican incumbent Donald Trump is trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden by about 10 points in the polls and most betting markets also have Biden enjoying a large lead.  Given the chaotic government response to Covid-19, it seems that Trump's hopes for re-election are remote.  At this point, there would have to be some unforeseen developments in order for Trump to win this election. 

As we know, Trump's horoscope looks quite difficult on Election Day, November 3.   Retrograde Mercury and Saturn are aligned in a square aspect and this raises the possibility of some significant confusion or disruption with the election result.  Moreover, the Mercury-Saturn alignment is poorly aligned with Trump's natal Venus-Saturn conjunction.  This pattern may symbolize disappointment and frustration with the election result.  As an added burden, transiting Rahu is conjunct natal Rahu, a typically malefic pattern which marks periods of change and uncertainty. 

On the face of it, it seems that Trump is likely to lose the election.  And yet, we know there is a real possibility that the election may not be decided on November 3.  The GOP controls the state legislatures of several swing states and may not be in a hurry to endorse their results for partisan political reasons.  Also, the impact of the virus means that most voters will cast mail-in ballots and thus could be subject to increased scrutiny and legal disqualification by the losing side.  So there is some reason to think that the election may not be decided on November 3.  This makes forecasting the ultimate election result more challenging.

One additional source of information may be Trump's 2017 Inauguration chart.  Typically, when the chart of an incumbent is well-aspected, re-election to a second term is more likely.  This occurred in 2012 with Obama's re-election.  The transits in November 2012 were quite auspicious with respect to the horoscope of his initial inauguration in January 2009.  Jupiter  (20 Taurus) and Venus (17 Virgo) were both in degreewise alignments with the Ascendant (20 Aries).  In addition. Saturn and Mercury aligned closely with Jupiter which I take as generally supportive of the incumbent Obama.  Yes, Saturn is a natural malefic, but here a near-stationary benefic Mercury transforms the influence into a net positive. 

Let's compare the chart for the upcoming Nov 3 election with Trump's inauguration on Jan 20, 2017.  Right off the bat, we can see it doesn't look good.  Malefic Mars (21 Pisces) is retrograde in the 12th house of loss and in close alignment with the Ascendant at 20 Aries.  Mars rules the 1st house in the chart so that is a doubly negative influence for Trump.  And we can see that transiting stationary Mercury (1 Libra) falls under the 8th house aspect of natal Mars (0 Pisces), while Mars itself falls under the 3rd house aspect of transiting Saturn.  That is a very nasty-looking pattern for the day of the election.  It suggests that: 1) Trump is likely to have fewer votes than Biden on election day and/or that  2) the country as a whole is likely to be riven with rancor and animosity. 

If I was reasonably confident that the election was going to be decided on November 3, I would say that Trump will lose and Biden will win.  But the planets also suggest that the extent of division and turmoil may be such that there is no winner on November 3.  I just don't know.  We can see that the transits to Trump's Inauguration chart improves quite a bit by early December as Jupiter conjoins the Midheaven (10th house cusp = leaders) and conjoins with Saturn near the natal Sun at 6 Capricorn.  

It's very possible this is simply a reflection of the reassuring constitutional process through which Biden is confirmed following the election.  And yet there is some reasonable doubt in my mind if it could represent some other protracted scenarios of uncertainty that may echo the Bush-Gore result in 2000.  I hope to have more to say on this subject in the coming weeks.

Weekly Market Forecast

Meanwhile, stock markets have been choppy in recent days although they have remained largely within a narrow trading range.  Monday's session brought a significant intraday reversal and decline as Covid worries undermined sentiment.  Today (Tuesday) saw another intraday reversal in US markets as promising vaccine news gave investors a reason to buy. 

So there is some reason to think we remain under the shadow of the July 5 lunar eclipse.  Markets may be more indecisive than usual and perhaps more vulnerable to news developments.  This week could see further choppiness as the Sun opposes Pluto tomorrow and then enters sidereal Cancer where it aligns with Saturn on Friday.   With the tense Mars eclipse aspect still due for next week, there is some reason to expect investor sentiment to err on the side of caution for the near term.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Photo: C-Span

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Market forecast for week of 6 July 2020 

Market forecast for week of 29 June 2020