US election aftermath: Biden closes in on presidency

(4 November 2020) Democrat nominee Joe Biden seems to be on the verge of winning the presidency tonight as the former vice president only needs to win one more state to reach the threshold of 270 Electoral Votes.  The several remaining undeclared states are still too close to call as mail-in ballots will decide the final outcome. Not surprisingly, President Donald Trump is already contesting the results and has requested a recount in Wisconsin and an investigation into Arizona's mail-in ballots.  

Biden's current lead in the voting is not unexpected as I had previously suggested that the planets on Election Day favoured him over Trump.  The current Jupiter-Pluto conjunction at 27-28 Sagittarius aligned very closely with his unequal 10th house cusp (26 Leo) of status and career.  Also the Sun conjoined his natal Mercury (19 Libra) today which provided an additional infusion of energy.  Since the Sun rules his 10th house of status while Mars rules his 1st house, this 1-10 combination is a powerful signature for public profile and success. 

As we know, President Trump's chart is quite afflicted this week as the Mercury-Saturn square aligns closely with his Venus-Saturn conjunction in the 12th house of loss.  The difference in transits between Trump and Biden is stark.   Trump's Saturn and 12th house influences are clear negatives while Biden's Jupiter and 10th house influences are positive. 

So is this the end of the US election?  Knowing Trump has stated that he will not accept a losing result, it does seem likely that he will try to fight on.  First, the counts have not yet been finalized so he could still conceivably win Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.  And even if he loses, he is likely to pursue full recounts and legal challenges. 

In last week's post, I thought that Trump's fortunes might begin to improve next week.  Venus will conjoins his dasha lord Jupiter (24 Virgo) on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Both planets are benefics and generally denote favourable outcomes.  Moreover, Venus will align with his natal Uranus (24 Taurus) and with Rahu (26 Taurus) and thus we could see a significant development which boosts Trump's chances.  And by this time, transiting Saturn will have moved off its opposition alignment to his natal Venus.  This will further reduce his level of chart affliction. 

However, I would not say this Venus transit can completely alter the post-election dynamic since Biden's chart does not seem clearly afflicted.  Biden may see a small setback next week as Mercury aligns with his Moon and Ketu and then conjoins his equal 12th house cusp.  This is only a brief transit, however, so I would not expect a reversal of his fortunes.  But it could be something that keeps Trump's hopes alive.

More important is the entry of Jupiter into sidereal Capricorn in the following week on November 20.  This could be more positive for Trump since it will align closely with his unequal 10th house cusp (MC).  This is likely to give him a significant boost. 

As it happens, Biden will see Mercury conjoin his Mars on Nov 20.  Coincidentally, this is also Biden's 78th birthday.  Mercury-Mars is usually a stressful combination that coincides with frustrations and small setbacks.  I don't think Biden will lose the election at this time, but it could keep the final outcome in doubt for a while longer.  I will post further updates as the post-election period continues to unfold.

Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have rallied this week as investors shrugged off the election uncertainty.  Markets appear to be pricing in a Biden win and Republican-controlled Senate.  Typically, the stock market prefers the gridlock of a divided government where the presidency and Congress are controlled by different parties.  This would likely limit the more radical parts of the Democrats agenda (tax increases, green infrastructure) while keeping stimulus packages more modest. 

I thought we might have seen more volatility this week around the election given the ongoing Mercury-Saturn square.  One possible reason for the gains is the Jupiter-Pluto conjunction which will become exact next week.  This bullish pairing is within one degree of exact this week and may have outweighed any negative effects of the Mercury-Saturn thus far. 

Nonetheless, the Mercury-Saturn square is exact tomorrow and Friday so there is a reasonable chance we could see a rise in volatility later this week and perhaps into early next week.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

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