(9 February 2022) Tensions continue to rise on the Russia-Ukraine border as the Russian army has amassed 100,000 troops in preparation for a possible invasion. While diplomatic talks are ongoing between President Vladimir Putin and various NATO officials, most Western governments have issued calls for their citizens to leave Ukraine in the event of a possible attack in the coming days.  Clearly, it is an unstable situation that could well lead to war.

An astrological assessment of the stand-off suggests that war is likely.  Using the Ukraine horoscope (Aug 24, 1991, 5.31 p.m. Kiev), we can see how the planetary storm clouds are gathering.  The main affliction in the chart is that transiting Saturn (loss) is approaching its conjunction with the natal Moon (home, land) at 28 Capricorn.  The exact conjunction of Saturn to the natal Moon is due to occur in late March and early April.  Saturn will then proceed to enter sidereal Aquarius in late April and early May where it will oppose Mercury and Jupiter at the time of the Saturn retrograde station.  Let’s unpack this a bit to see how these alignments might correlate with real-world events.

While the chart is already under stress now, a full-blown invasion seems less likely in the near term.  The ongoing Venus-Mars conjunction will be activating natal Rahu next week (Feb 14-20) but this does not look significant enough to suggest a military confrontation.  A small border incursion is possible perhaps, or some other frustrating development that puts Ukraine back on its heels.

A more important window to watch may be Feb 28-Mar 2 when Venus and Mars switch signs and enter Capricorn.  Mars will therefore align with Mercury and Jupiter in early Leo (by 8th house aspect) and also align with natal Mars (1 Virgo).  The Mars-Mars alignment is a better indicator of some kind of explicit conflict.

But the focus of energy appears to be in April when both Mars conjoins Saturn at 28 Capricorn, exactly conjunct the Moon in the Ukraine chart.  This double conjunction to the Moon occurs on April 5. This affliction to the Moon looks likely to coincide with a loss and disappointment felt throughout the country.  Given the Moon’s association with land, a loss of territory seems very possible in early April.

We should also note that transiting Uranus (19 Aries) will be exactly conjunct the unequal 4th house cusp (IC).  The Uranus-4th house conjunction suggests possible major changes which disrupt the status quo.

The outlook doesn’t get any better in May and early June as Saturn stations at 1 Aquarius, almost exactly opposite Mercury and Jupiter in early Leo.  Since Saturn moves very slowly around the time of its stations, this affliction to the Moon, Mercury and Jupiter will persist for several months.  Therefore, even if military actions end by this date, Ukraine is likely to be on the losing end.

While some loss of territory looks more likely than not, it is difficult to say how much territory will be lost and if the capital, Kiev, will remain in Ukrainian control.  We may have to revisit this topic as events unfold.

Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have generally been positive over the past trading sessions.  The gains likely reflect the ongoing alignment between Jupiter (15 Aquarius), Uranus (16 Aries) and Chiron (15 Pisces).  While there are no full-strength aspects in play here, the degreewise alignment nonetheless is the more plausible reason for the upside this week.

The rest of this week looks less positive, however, as Mercury conjoins Pluto on Thursday and Friday.  The fact that this conjunction occurs while in alignment with Rahu (North Lunar Node) is an additional reason to be skeptical about further gains.

Next week will see a tightening of the ongoing Venus-Mars conjunction. This is less likely to be a bullish pairing, although the current conjunction is quite unusual since it last for up to fours weeks due to the recently retrograde Venus returning to normal forward motion.

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