(3 June 2021) US stocks have moved sideways over the past two weeks as inflation risks continue to weigh on sentiment.  While the economic outlook is encouraging for 2021 amid re-opening and the successful vaccination campaign, some uncertainty remains.  Government income support is gradually being withdrawn in coming weeks as many states are ending the unemployment benefit top-up in an effort to get people back to work.  The winding down of fiscal stimulus could thus temporarily weaken consumer demand and undermine the strength of the recovery.

Despite rising inflation, stocks did manage to rebound in late May, albeit to a lower high.  I thought we might have seen a bit more volatility at that time, especially given the Saturn retrograde station on May 23.  That said, we have seen some modest downside this week in the wake of Mercury’s retrograde station on May 29.  While retrograde stations aren’t always bearish, they nonetheless carry an increased risk of downside.

The possibility of negative outcomes is further elevated if the stationing planet (Mercury, in this case) aligns with a malefic such as Mars.  That is in fact what we has occurred this week as retrograde Mercury formed an exact 30-degree alignment with Mars.  While the pullback has been small, it is a good example of how these retrograde stations can work in forecasting the market.

Mars again figures prominently tomorrow (Friday) and early next week as it opposes Pluto.  Since Mars is often a bearish influence, there is a possibility for some further selling.

I would also note that the Mars-Pluto opposition will activate the natal Mercury (3 Cancer) in the USA horoscope.  This is an additional negative because Mercury is a significator of commerce, trading and the stock market.   Communications and transportation may also be subject to increased disruption by this transit.  Given recent events, this Mars-Mercury transits raises the possibility of further ransomware attacks on US infrastructure.

While there is a growing downside risk for financial markets over the next several months, it is quite possible that a major sell-off may first require the Saturn-Uranus square on June 14 to act as a trigger.

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